Mac Shipments Estimated to Be Down Over 20% While Demand Surges in Q1 2020

[iBug2]

Using your iPad for what? Email, FaceTime, and Facebook?
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Photo editing, excel, preparing my lectures with the pencil, doing mathematics, recording online lectures nowadays (due to covid19), reading, and many other stuff. I have been using my iPad more than my MBP during the last 3 years or so, but I finally decided that I don't need to keep a laptop just for the things that require more typing. I'll just get the magic keyboard when it's released and I'm done.

I still have my iMac though.

I started using my iPad on photography trips instead of my MBP when I realized the iPad Pro is so much faster in importing/editing/exporting than the 4 core intel computer.

 

[nexusrule]

Not a chance. They need the Mac to develop for those platforms.

Tim is an idiot for pricing these things so high, however - part of the reason I believe we keep seeing these "Mac sales are down" reports (and yes, I know, the current economic climate may have something to do with this... but it's by no means the primary or only cause).

In short, out of touch is the common parlance.

Or you are out of touch with reality? This is how Mac market share trended in the last 7 years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-quarterly-pc-shipment-share-apple/

 

[ani4ani]

The official mortality rate in Spain is certainly 14% of those confirmed infected. You can check that out for yourself. What the Real percentage Is no one know because no one has tested everyone. Nevertheless, most countries have issued “stay at home” orders with various degree of compliance and enforcement. This has slowed down the spread of the virus dramatically. As soon as people go back to work, the worst case scenario will recur.

Even if the real infection rate in the US is currently 10 times that of the official numbers, i. e. 5 million infected, and the death rate is 1.5 times the official rate (as those who die untested are not considered having died from Coronavirus), the death rate is 0.75%. Now take 0.75% of 165 million, and you will get 1.2 million people dead by the end of summer if we reopen the US economy now. By the time the vaccine is available, 2.5 million Americans will have died from Covid-19.

I'm not disagreeing with you and you are factually you are correct with your numbers. I also 100% agree with you that any country letting go now of the distancing and isolating rules will basically reset the virus infection. To me you soften the rules when the confirmed cases drops to a number that would allow contact and tracing to be effectively undertaken so the spread can be controlled and managed; the cases are low enough for that to be plausible. That would be different each country depending on size, population density etc; South Korea have managed it because 60% of their population is basically Seoul and 80% of visitors come through one airport. I would hazard a guess that would be much harder to achieve in the US.

 

[PostApple2016BrainWash]

Apple need to stop with the 40% margins on everything, as people look at what they spend money on due to the current situation, companies like Apple will be hit hard. Who is going to spend over 1k on a phone or computer when the economies are crashing around them. All the other vendors have lower cost options which are high quality and high performance these days.

Agreed, Apple product price is not very competitive and a noticeable screen design flaw in iPhone X-11. The lack of innovation from mac lineup is palpable and that's going to significantly decline the sales regardless of economic recession.

 

[rp2011]

I think all the attention is on the iPad pros. They feel fast and powerful compared to MacBooks that “can” run full Mac OS, but can barely run the pro apps on the basic models. Apple needs to get away from Intel even faster before iPad pros completely cannibalize the budget Mac laptops

 

[V_Man]

Yeah, imagine that. Apple Stores are closed.

And a lot of people who would normally buy an Apple computer in an Apple Store, and would rather buy an Apple computer in an Apple Store, instead of online, will simply wait the virus situation out.

As an aside, that certainly describes me.

Most regular people, not posters here, could care less if they buy it online or in store.

yes a poster on a apple forum. Hmmmm
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People seem to be wildly exaggerating the problems at this point. This 2013 MBP shipped with 10.9 Mojave, and has seen ups and downs in terms of OS reliability. Catalina certainly isn't an "up", but I can get my work done…

Seems like your really reaching. Just Being able to “get your work done” doesn’t sound promising.

this is apples new status quo. Release bad software, release crazy updates to fix things. Then announce the next os release will be light o new features but should have all the old bugs worked out. I love the updates bit come on.

 

[chucker23n1]

Seems like your really reaching. Just Being able to “get your work done” doesn’t sound promising.

This machine is close to six years old. I still use it extensively. It's both a workhorse and the occasional entertainment hub.

It still does the job OK at that. I'm not saying Catalina is a good OS. It isn't. I'm not saying there aren't bugs that annoy me. (Although, really, one of the biggest annoyances has been there since all the way back to 10.0: the handling of SMB network shares is both user-unfriendly, and unreliable.) I'm only saying, from my personal experience, it's not quite that bad.

And I said so in response to someone implying that Catalina is in part to blame for a dip in Mac sales. Now that seems reaching.

 

[PostApple2016BrainWash]

I would never categorize the Mac Pro of the 2000's as a "consumer / enthusiast" machine, but it certainly could cater to a much wider audience than the current offering.

Agreed. Apple does not need to price as a niche product because the cost can significantly be lowered in order to target a wide range of customers.

 

[Vjosullivan]

That is relatively easy to fix:

They could either simply port the development tools to another platform, either Windows or a flavor of Linux.

Or, option number two, they make iOS "self-hosting" by porting the development tools to that platform. This would then require an iOS-based device that could function as an actual computer, not just as a "computer that is not a computer".

This was predictable from the day they split macOS and iOS into two incompatible systems - even when they were carrying out the same functions.

 

[chucker23n1]

This was predictable from the day they split macOS and iOS into two incompatible systems - even when they were carrying out the same functions.

A lot of layers are the same. The kernel, mostly, and many frameworks (such as AVFoundation).

 

[Vjosullivan]

maybe if intel didn't royally f*ck up their roadmap, we would see regular refreshes.

Apple's roadmap is not Intel's responsibility.

Everybody else is managing OK (relatively). Under the hood, there's no significant difference between a Mac and a PC. Both will happily run Windows and Unix. The only reason you don't see macOS on PCs is licensing.

 

[ingambe]

Companies panic buy cheap laptop in order to telework

IMHO, also the problem of the current line are:
-Macbook air: no heatpipe
-Macbook pro:
LPDRR3 is 2020, also 8Gb for the base model ...
128GB for the base model ... for the base model is not a viable option
Amd gpu, so no CUDA, it’s a no for a lot of scientists
The price is really too high

 

[Michael Scrip]

Funny. Intel releases dozens of new chip models annually. Every other PC vendor (all of them use Intel CPUs) updates their computers regularly. Yet Apple is still shipping Mac Minis with Intel's 8 generation CPUs and probably won't update until Intel releases 15th generation. Let's blame Intel.

Apple's roadmap is not Intel's responsibility.

Everybody else is managing OK (relatively). Under the hood, there's no significant difference between a Mac and a PC.

Exactly.

We all know Apple sometimes goes YEARS between updating certain models. That's Apple's fault... not Intel's

Dell, HP, Lenovo and others should have those huge delays too... since EVERYONE gets their chips from Intel. But they don't.

And look... I'm not saying Intel is perfect. Far from it.

But it's tough to keep blaming Intel for Apple's questionable product decisions.

 

[Woochoo]

Nvidia

Sadly that won't happen, they just "broke" with Nvidia in 2010-2011 and only used GT750m from them since. Hopefully AMD RDNA2 gives us a real boost in performance.

Same with Intel, Apple keep using their processors that are basically the same since 2015. They just overclock (at cost of ridiculous power consumptions) and add some cache increase, but the architecture is the same and lithography is stuck at 14nm as they can't pull out 10nm. On the other hand AMD's 4800H & U on 7nm are destroying Intel mobiles, having the same or even performance than the top tier Intel mobiles using half the power consumption. But of course Apple won't use those since they are 1-2 years from releasing ARM Macbooks and switching to AMD now would be too much hassle.

 

[Red Oak]

Maybe if Apple actually updated its desktop computers on a regular basis instead of once every 10 years, more people might be interested in buying. But since over 80% of Apple's revenue comes from mobile products, why would they care? Apple has been killing the desktop Mac for years.

Oh please. They just launched the Mac Pro. The iMac and iMac Pro were refreshed one year ago. The Mac mini had a complete overhaul two years ago and just was refreshed.

70%+ of Mac sales are laptops.

Stop being a drama queen
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The Mac needs to be updated as often as the IOS devices. They are selling a 13 inch MacBook with an 8th gen processor. The iMac Pro is basically unchanged from late 2017. Pathetic.

Wrong. The iMac had a sizable refresh 12 months ago - new CPUs, new graphics.

If you are so offended and disgusted, just do us all a favor and move to Windows.

 

[fbr$]

- iPad mini 4 with an A8 chip released on September 2015
- iPad mini 5 with an A12 chip released on March 2019

Three and half years to upgrade the iPad mini chip? Who is to blame here?

And can we blame Intel on the MacBook Air and the Mac mini not getting proper updates for many and many years until the 2018 updates?

 

[Michael Scrip]

And can we blame Intel on the MacBook Air and the Mac mini not getting proper updates for many and many years until the 2018 updates?

Exactly!

It's funny... there were over 800 million PCs sold between 2014 and 2018... almost all with Intel processors.

And yet... Apple made ZERO updates to the Mac Mini during that same time period.

Even Intel themselves got into the mini-PC market with their NUC products.

So it's getting increasingly difficult to keep playing the "blame Intel" card here.

 

[dogslobber]

Photo editing, excel, preparing my lectures with the pencil, doing mathematics, recording online lectures nowadays (due to covid19), reading, and many other stuff. I have been using my iPad more than my MBP during the last 3 years or so, but I finally decided that I don't need to keep a laptop just for the things that require more typing. I'll just get the magic keyboard when it's released and I'm done.

I still have my iMac though..

I think the standard rule of thumb still dominates. Ipad is great for consumption and just about doable for the odd email response. Any real content creation needs a real Mac. You’re kidding yourself if you think this can be done efficiently on an iPad V Mac.

 

[Mainsail]

I think the standard rule of thumb still dominates. Ipad is great for consumption and just about doable for the odd email response. Any real content creation needs a real Mac. You’re kidding yourself if you think this can be done efficiently on an iPad V Mac.

I would modify this somewhat. The iPad is great for light productivity: Mail, Messages, calendar, notes, reading documents, markups/annotations, and creating drafts of simple documents. For some people, this covers their mobile computing needs, so all they need is access to a good desktop back at their home or office. In fact, they might be able to share a desktop with multiple user accounts.

That said; I think college students are the acid test. When I see college students using iPads rather than laptops, I will know the tablet has finally arrived, since those young people will ultimately bring their technology preferences to the work world and everyday life. However, based upon feedback from my college aged kids, the laptop still rules on campus. Time will tell.

 

[anthogag]

It's likely mostly due to cost. Windows and Android computers can be quite cheap compared to a Mac.

Macs have lost some wow factor. The current mini should be smaller and more powerful. Macs should be updated more frequently.

Apple could make available one desktop computer that's totally customizable. From $500 all the way up to $5,000. Use a Mac Pro type case and let users pick everything.

 

[PostApple2016BrainWash]

Guessing getting employees working from home has something to do with this, since Apple doesn’t have a great enterprise foothold.

Although, a MacBook Air is still a good machine for the money compared to things like the MS Surface Pro. Compatibility and support may be a factor, causing a rise in PC purchases.

No doubt, but there is certainly a market for 15” Macbook Air at $1500

 

[gkarris]

Apple will drop prices big time when they go to their own ARM processors and a desktop version of iOS...

Sales will go up because it is like getting a desktop iPhone...

This week's Target Ad is pushing the iPad as your "next computer"... (Apple's marketing obviously).

Target Weekly Ad

weeklyad.target.com

 

[sirozha]

I would modify this somewhat. The iPad is great for light productivity: Mail, Messages, calendar, notes, reading documents, markups/annotations, and creating drafts of simple documents. For some people, this covers their mobile computing needs, so all they need is access to a good desktop back at their home or office. In fact, they might be able to share a desktop with multiple user accounts.

That said; I think college students are the acid test. When I see college students using iPads rather than laptops, I will know the tablet has finally arrived, since those young people will ultimately bring their technology preferences to the work world and everyday life. However, based upon feedback from my college aged kids, the laptop still rules on campus. Time will tell.

Moreover, the percentage of Windows laptops has been gradually increasing while the percentage of Macs gradually decreasing on campus in the past five years. You can clearly see this trend when visiting any coffee shop. Currently, the ratio is about 55 to 45 percent in favor of Windows. It used to be 90 to 10 percent in favor of Macs.

The majority of students now clearly prefer Windows for various reasons. Kids didn’t grow up using Macs in schools because Chromebooks and Windows laptops displaced Macs from education since Steve Jobs passed away. Windows 10 has gotten much better than previous versions, and Windows laptops became quite good for 65% of what Apple charges. Microsoft has been building a solid foundation to keep its dominance in the enterprise by creating a loyal following among school and college kids.

Apple’s services offering is a joke compared to Microsoft’s. iWork compared to Office365, Facetime and iMedsage vs Microsoft teams, iCloud Drive vs One Drive, and then nothing vs Azure. What Apple has to offer in each of this categories is child’s play not suitable for any serious business.

 

[Ronlap]

I wonder if this downturn is one reason that Apple has pushed a large number of 2019 Mac Pro units into the refurbished channel? That would allow them to discount now without actually running a sale or lowering the price.

Meanwhile, I rock a Desktop and laptop Mac, a large and small iPad and an iPhone. Each serves their purpose. I could not see using my iPad for writing, web development, ending movies or music or graphics work. My iPads and iPhone are for messaging, quick emails, shopping, looking up info on movies and music. iPad when I am in the media center and iPhone when I am out of the house. The big iPad is for watching movies when I am on an airplane.

What I would really like Apple to do is to give me a way to use my iPad as the display (not a second display) for my MacBook when I am traveling so that I don't need to pay for and carry 2 screens. Works like an iPad when undocked, acts like a display when docked.

 

[iBug2]

I think the standard rule of thumb still dominates. Ipad is great for consumption and just about doable for the odd email response. Any real content creation needs a real Mac. You’re kidding yourself if you think this can be done efficiently on an iPad V Mac.

Depends on the content. Most of my content creation is done with the Apple Pencil. Try to do that "better" on a Mac. And like I said, photo editing, I can do it easier on my iPad compared to my Mac. Healing brush using your finger or pencil on the photo itself is easier than with mouse.

Excel is easier with the Mac simply because iMac's screen is larger and I can see more cells at once. But as long as you hook up a keyboard to the iPad, other than the larger screen estate, the Mac does not offer any other benefits.
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Moreover, the percentage of Windows laptops has been gradually increasing while the percentage of Macs gradually decreasing on campus in the past five years. You can clearly see this trend when visiting any coffee shop. Currently, the ratio is about 55 to 45 percent in favor of Windows. It used to be 90 to 10 percent in favor of Macs.

In my campus I see more and more iPads compared to laptops lately.