Mac Shipments Estimated to Be Down Over 20% While Demand Surges in Q1 2020

[nvmls]

No one is taking away anyone’s power Unix-based desktop operating system! It’s on their desk and it’ll stay RIGHT there.

There were people that thought that, with the strength of the Apple ][ that the future of Apple would be some Apple ][ based design. There are people now that think the future of Apple now MUST be some macOS design. We now know how correct the first group was. We’ll soon know how correct the second group will be.

It's not about who's right. A company this rich shouldn't cripple their trucks in favor of their newest profitable toy. We wouldn't even be writing here without these "trucks".

If they want to make their next itoy throw glitter farts because that's where the market is, fair enough, just move forward with your core products as well. The software & hardware on the Mac has been a bizarre level novel, with cheap penny pinching moves all over the place.

 

[PickUrPoison]

I'm late to this thread...I bought a $1500 2020 Macbook Air a few weeks ago, found out it was throttling the i7 CPU by more than 50%, and quickly returned it. Granted the Air might not be for people who will push the CPU, but you CANNOT offer/sell/pitch/advertise an i7 chip and literally cripple it. That's beyond misleading advertising.

A similar Macbook Pro 13" would be over $2300 (including the EDU discount) which is beyond expensive for my needs as well as far outside my affordability.

So I can't buy a Mac laptop.

I found a sweet Lenovo X1 Extreme Gen2 for $1232 plus tax and bought it. Same CPU, RAM, drive as the Macbook Pro. It's fantastic. And it's 1/2 the price. It doesn't throttle.

I don't want to get into the battle here about Windows vs. Mac because in my situation, I could have used either platform for my software. But I really wanted a Mac laptop and ultimately could not.

If you don’t need or want MacOS, you can probably save money buying a PC. It’s been that way for decades.

But if you returned the MBA because of “throttling”, you’ve fallen for TechTuber clickbait—or foolish MR posters who parrot them, or Rossman or whomever.

Apple limits the 10W CPU to about 13W. At that power consumption, it’ll operate continuously somewhere around 20-25% over Intel’s spec of 1.2GHz. If you need higher continuous clock speeds, MacBook Pro is the better choice, as you say.

With the 10nm 10th gen i5 CPU, new scissor keyboard, 256GB base SSD and LPDDR4X memory, the $1,099 is a helluva computer at a helluva price.

The X1 is also a nice machine. Besides Apple, the only other brand of laptop I buy is Lenovo. (I bought a 2013 T430 a couple years ago used for $150, with a i5-3360M and 8GB it runs well, though the textured trackpad is weird.)

 

[robvas]

The X1 is also a nice machine. Besides Apple, the only other brand of laptop I buy is Lenovo. (I bought a 2013 T430 a couple years ago used for $150, with a i5-3360M and 8GB it runs well, though the textured trackpad is weird.)

Those were good machines (if not a bit thick), other than the fact that the screens were piss compared to the Macs of the day.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Those were good machines (if not a bit thick), other than the fact that the screens were piss compared to the Macs of the day.

Oh it’s thick; at 1.2” not quite double a 2013 MBP 15” (.71”) but pretty damn close. Weight’s not bad at about 5.25 with the larger 9-cell battery. It’s got the 1600x900 display (still TN though 🙁) vs. the base 1366x768, nVIDIA 5400M and 500GB 7200rpm HD.

Just checked my eBay, $113.50 in June 2018. Can you imagine a 5 year old MBP in excellent condition bringing so little in resale value? 🤯

 

[Brien]

That is relatively easy to fix:

They could either simply port the development tools to another platform, either Windows or a flavor of Linux.

Or, option number two, they make iOS "self-hosting" by porting the development tools to that platform. This would then require an iOS-based device that could function as an actual computer, not just as a "computer that is not a computer".

They could also offer cloud services for developers: All development work would happen on Apple-hosted machines, there wouldn't be a local installation of the development tools anymore -- after all, that's what real cloud computing is all about. Microsoft is clearly headed this way, but Apple doesn't have the necessary technology nor the necessary data centers for this approach; Apple cannot compete in the cloud, they're exclusively in the client-side business.

Either way, the Mac as we've known it for decades is on its way out - for Apple, the Mac is a liability at this point.

I have thought for years that once we see Xcode for iPad the Mac’s days are numbered.

 

[Mainsail]

I have thought for years that once we see Xcode for iPad the Mac’s days are numbered.

what percentage of people that buy Macs or IPads even know what Xcode is?

 

[PickUrPoison]

I have thought for years that once we see Xcode for iPad the Mac’s days are numbered.

iPads would need a lot more RAM, at least 16GB, to run Xcode effectively don’t you think?

But in any case I don’t think Xcode on iPad will be the end of the Mac, right tool for the job and all. Most coders I know have at least a couple of large displays. And it’s not as if only software devs buy Macs.

 

[JWreck]

No doubt, but there is certainly a market for 15” Macbook Air at $1500

I'd actually be OK with a 14" for $100 more than what it's priced right now. 15" gets a little big (although they could go truly edge to edge and not add any additional size to the current shell).

 

[mdriftmeyer]

Absolutely useless headline. China crashes, shipments crash. Demand goes through the roof, shipments pending. Yet, it's a doom and gloom scenario by loading it with Apple down 20%?
[automerge]1586743082[/automerge]

iPads would need a lot more RAM, at least 16GB, to run Xcode effectively don’t you think?

But in any case I don’t think Xcode on iPad will be the end of the Mac, right tool for the job and all. Most coders I know have at least a couple of large displays. And it’s not as if only software devs buy Macs.

The Mac isn't going anywhere. It's expanding, not shrinking. iPads will never replace productivity machines, period. Graphics artists exclusivity on an iPad Pro is about 1% of all Graphics Artists for Macs. Wacom dominates that tier for a reason--it's flag ship drawing tablets interfacing with an iMac/iMac Pro/Mac Pro are in all major studios.

Engineering, Physics, Musicians, etc., aren't using iPads to mix and produce music. They're using high end Macs with Pro Tools and Logic Pro X.

The new baseline for tolerable performance in Logic Pro X is already 16GB of DDR4 RAM. I know, my system needs to be replaced a year ago. The Mac Mini needs a minimum of 8 Cores/16 threads Ryzen 7 4800H with 16GB DDR4 or better 32/64/128GB of DDR4 this September because Zen 3 is launching late September and that'll even embarrass the 2019 Mac Pro that much more.

Working, on average, with over 200 channels in Logic Pro X won't work in any A Series chip, period. There is a reason we have Logic Pro Remote only. The A Series can't handle OS X's requirement of 600+ processes/1100+ threads for a basic system, never mind a resource intensive suite like Logic Pro X or Final Cut X.

I have Affinity Suite on iPad and OS X. The iPad is a child's tool compared to the OS X version. Adobe's tools are stripped down like all other OEMs on an iPad.

The iPad augments workflows, it doesn't replace them.

 

[ericinboston]

...But if you returned the MBA because of “throttling”, you’ve fallen for TechTuber clickbait—or foolish MR posters who parrot them, or Rossman or whomever.

Apple limits the 10W CPU to about 13W. At that power consumption, it’ll operate continuously somewhere around 20-25% over Intel’s spec of 1.2GHz. If you need higher continuous clock speeds, MacBook Pro is the better choice, as you say.

I bought the MBA because as you said, it is a great price for an Apple laptop. I needed the i7 chip for the work (app) that I do. I have used Macbook Pros in the past but not for the reasons (or software) of this purchase so I wasn't aware that the MBA is basically designed to be super thin and light, while sacrificing CPU performance. There are plenty of Windows machines that are designed the same way and I know the models...even Lenovo makes some.

I bought the MBA the day it came out (and it took 3+ weeks to get here) so there were no reviews and no warnings that Apple was throttling the i7 to death. 5 minutes post-setup and installed my app, I could see immediately it was throttling. It wasn't worth my time to try to turn it off and even if I did, I would have likely burned out the CPU in a few weeks anyway. The work my app was doing should have taken 2.5-3 hours and it was taking 10-11 hours. That's a massive difference. Even my 2015 Macbook Pro with the dual core i5 does the work within 7 hours. I politely disagree that I have "fallen for TechTuber clickbait..." I have the stats right in front of me.

I have read that the Macbook Pros also throttle but I don't have any URLs to back up my claim. I also don't think the Macbook Pros are throttling as much.

Returning the MBA was really a huge bummer...such a great little machine, yet to do anything fairly CPU intensive was just going to bring the apps to their knees. Again, after plunking down $1500 for it, there was no way I was going to keep it to run at 40% CPU performance. I would still recommend it for people who want to buy the $1000 version for its thinness and lightness as main purchase features...but I couldn't vouch for how well the i3 chip works.

As you state, I too am a Lenovo fan as well as Apple. Currently I'm hoping Apple releases a new iMac before end of June.

 

[rp2011]

Yeah thats the reason these things are So ridiculous to buy. Even the MacBook Pros.
I’d rather just own a super fast and thin iPad Pro and have a desktop PC for the really demanding pro software.

I bought the MBA because as you said, it is a great price for an Apple laptop. I needed the i7 chip for the work (app) that I do. I have used Macbook Pros in the past but not for the reasons (or software) of this purchase so I wasn't aware that the MBA is basically designed to be super thin and light, while sacrificing CPU performance. There are plenty of Windows machines that are designed the same way and I know the models...even Lenovo makes some.

I bought the MBA the day it came out (and it took 3+ weeks to get here) so there were no reviews and no warnings that Apple was throttling the i7 to death. 5 minutes post-setup and installed my app, I could see immediately it was throttling. It wasn't worth my time to try to turn it off and even if I did, I would have likely burned out the CPU in a few weeks anyway. The work my app was doing should have taken 2.5-3 hours and it was taking 10-11 hours. That's a massive difference. Even my 2015 Macbook Pro with the dual core i5 does the work within 7 hours. I politely disagree that I have "fallen for TechTuber clickbait..." I have the stats right in front of me.

I have read that the Macbook Pros also throttle but I don't have any URLs to back up my claim. I also don't think the Macbook Pros are throttling as much.

Returning the MBA was really a huge bummer...such a great little machine, yet to do anything fairly CPU intensive was just going to bring the apps to their knees. Again, after plunking down $1500 for it, there was no way I was going to keep it to run at 40% CPU performance. I would still recommend it for people who want to buy the $1000 version for its thinness and lightness as main purchase features...but I couldn't vouch for how well the i3 chip works.

As you state, I too am a Lenovo fan as well as Apple. Currently I'm hoping Apple releases a new iMac before end of June.

 

[Brien]

iPads would need a lot more RAM, at least 16GB, to run Xcode effectively don’t you think?

But in any case I don’t think Xcode on iPad will be the end of the Mac, right tool for the job and all. Most coders I know have at least a couple of large displays. And it’s not as if only software devs buy Macs.

We say this, now, but give it a few years. iOS will eventually have multi-monitor and multi-user support, beefier hardware, and more pro apps.

 

[falainber]

We say this, now, but give it a few years. iOS will eventually have multi-monitor and multi-user support, beefier hardware, and more pro apps.

iPad Pro already costs more than many PCs while being a limited device. A beefier iPad Pro will cost even more. What's the point?

 

[rp2011]

iPad Pro already costs more than many PCs while being a limited device. A beefier iPad Pro will cost even more. What's the point?

That’s myopia. We already see how fast and thin iPad Pro‘s are. And see how slow and hot MBA are. It doesn’t take much to connect the dots and see where things are going. Intel computers are a thing of the past.

 

[Abazigal]

iPad Pro already costs more than many PCs while being a limited device. A beefier iPad Pro will cost even more. What's the point?

The point is in serving as an alternative for people who are not getting their needs met by a conventional PC.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Apple needs to get away from Intel even faster before iPad pros completely canabolize the budget Mac laptops

I actually think that cannibalizing the Mac is the goal.

Apple's roadmap is not Intel's responsibility.

Well, it is, sorta. Intel meets with Apple years in advance, Intel provides the roadmap giving Apple assurances that they will have processors that can suit their future computers on the dates that they have indicated, then Apple builds systems to meet those requirements. Unfortunately, if Intel doesn’t meet their goals, then Apple has designed a system that Intel doesn’t have a chip to drive.

But it's tough to keep blaming Intel for Apple's questionable product decisions.

It’s actually pretty easy. Out of ALL of Intel’s processor, from the i3 and below all the way up to Xeon, Apple uses about 5-9 parts a year, mostly on the mid and higher end of the model lines. So, if Intel updates ALL the other lines, yet doesn’t update these (and it makes sense... other lines are easier to make/lower end or higher profit/upper end desktop class), then Apple goes a year without an update.

It's about milking the product.

Milking the Mac you say? Now where have I heard that before?

Consumers, yes, but at work, the vast majority is still desktops.

I don‘t have facts to dispute your claim, but anectodotally, I haven’t seen an office with desktops in quite awhile.

Macs were computers for the average consumer

No, never. Macs at their lofty prices have never been for average consumers.

But I really wanted a Mac laptop and ultimately could not.

And that’s not a shame, it’s a triumph of function over form! You’ve taken the first step into a world plentiful options and styles.

 

[Gasu E.]

I've read that sentence 10 times and I still can't grok it. And I'm a CPA.

I had to read the source article carefully to get it. Obviously (as you already know, but others might not), both Supply and Demand will impact prices, and quantities sold; and, in turn, the resulting revenues and margins. Supply this past quarter was unusually constrained, due to covid-19 disrupting supply chains. Yet demand was unusually high, due to a surge of stay-at-homes needing to upgrade their home equipment. So both the Supply and Demand curves were shifted due to the virus. The result was smaller unit quantities sold, but higher prices, resulting in higher operating margins. You sort of half to note the phrase "high operating margins" in the source article, then work backwards using Microeconomics 101.

 

[Mainsail]

The Mac isn't going anywhere. It's expanding, not shrinking. iPads will never replace productivity machines, period. Graphics artists exclusivity on an iPad Pro is about 1% of all Graphics Artists for Macs. Wacom dominates that tier for a reason--it's flag ship drawing tablets interfacing with an iMac/iMac Pro/Mac Pro are in all major studios.

Engineering, Physics, Musicians, etc., aren't using iPads to mix and produce music. They're using high end Macs with Pro Tools and Logic Pro X.

The new baseline for tolerable performance in Logic Pro X is already 16GB of DDR4 RAM. I know, my system needs to be replaced a year ago. The Mac Mini needs a minimum of 8 Cores/16 threads Ryzen 7 4800H with 16GB DDR4 or better 32/64/128GB of DDR4 this September because Zen 3 is launching late September and that'll even embarrass the 2019 Mac Pro that much more.

Working, on average, with over 200 channels in Logic Pro X won't work in any A Series chip, period. There is a reason we have Logic Pro Remote only. The A Series can't handle OS X's requirement of 600+ processes/1100+ threads for a basic system, never mind a resource intensive suite like Logic Pro X or Final Cut X.

I have Affinity Suite on iPad and OS X. The iPad is a child's tool compared to the OS X version. Adobe's tools are stripped down like all other OEMs on an iPad.

The iPad augments workflows, it doesn't replace them.

How do you define a productivity machine? Based upon your specific needs or the needs of typical consumers? I am sure you realize that the average consumer does not need 8 cores/16 threads and 16GB of RAM with blah blah blah.... I could be wrong but isn‘t there a market for an entry level Mac Mini for folks that just want a simple desktop solution? How do you think the size of that market compares to the number of people with your specific needs?

 

[Gasu E.]

Absolutely useless headline. China crashes, shipments crash. Demand goes through the roof, shipments pending. Yet, it's a doom and gloom scenario by loading it with Apple down 20%?

Yeah, but you have to read the article. They explain the demand spike as being due to a lot of people having to stay home, and needing to upgrade their home systems. But that ship has sailed. If Apple was stocking out due to supply chain disruptions, a lot of people will instead have bought the systems that were available at the time they were shopping, which may not have been Apple product.

 

[ericinboston]

... Intel computers are a thing of the past.

Do you mean Intel Macs or Intel for the entire personal computer market space?

I think it's possible that Apple will drop Intel/switch CPU vendors, like they have done in the past. But Intel is still powering the vast majority of personal computers, business computers, and servers. Unless AMD kills Intel, Intel will be around for another 20+ years easily. If Apple tries to kill intel on their computers and switch to Apple-created CPUs, I think the Macs will suffer harshly. Macs have never had more than 8% marketshare. Sure, Apple will do it's due diligence to make their A chip 100% compatible with Intel but stuff will break.

Personally, I don't think Apple knows what the heck to do with the iPad series and the Macbooks...and it's been this way for a good 5+ years. The 2 lines intersect at quite a few places. But let's be real: iPads/tablets will likely never replace computers given the physical differences/utilization (mice, physical keyboards, i/o options, etc). Computers will never replace tablets (how can you beat a $99 Amazon Fire if all you want is some video streaming, email, and some web surfing?).

Apple needs a game changer for the iPad. It hasn't changed significantly from a user-point of view since Version 2. Camera and screen improvements are to be expected. Passwords/security is to be expected. Updates to Safari are to be expected. Where are the 2020 killer Apple features of any of the iPads? Nothing. Even since 2015 there's been nothing except ever-changing iOS icons, locations, feature re-organizations in Settings, etc. The Pencil is a joke and is extremely expensive.

I don't have the next iPad idea/game changer that's better than sliced bread. But Apple should have by now. Maybe some unbelievable video display. Maybe some unbelievable Siri-type AI that can help me with research. Maybe a healtcare kit that ships with all iPads and includes a rectal thermometer. Oral is too dangerous in our "new normal" of viruses hiding behind trees, ready to POUNCE at any moment!

 

[WilliamDu]

Do you mean Intel Macs or Intel for the entire personal computer market space?

I think it's possible that Apple will drop Intel/switch CPU vendors, like they have done in the past. But Intel is still powering the vast majority of personal computers, business computers, and servers. Unless AMD kills Intel, Intel will be around for another 20+ years easily. If Apple tries to kill intel on their computers and switch to Apple-created CPUs, I think the Macs will suffer harshly. Macs have never had more than 8% marketshare. Sure, Apple will do it's due diligence to make their A chip 100% compatible with Intel but stuff will break.

Personally, I don't think Apple knows what the heck to do with the iPad series and the Macbooks...and it's been this way for a good 5+ years. The 2 lines intersect at quite a few places. But let's be real: iPads/tablets will likely never replace computers given the physical differences/utilization (mice, physical keyboards, i/o options, etc). Computers will never replace tablets (how can you beat a $99 Amazon Fire if all you want is some video streaming, email, and some web surfing?).

Apple needs a game changer for the iPad. It hasn't changed significantly from a user-point of view since Version 2. Camera and screen improvements are to be expected. Passwords/security is to be expected. Updates to Safari are to be expected. Where are the 2020 killer Apple features of any of the iPads? Nothing. Even since 2015 there's been nothing except ever-changing iOS icons, locations, feature re-organizations in Settings, etc. The Pencil is a joke and is extremely expensive.

I don't have the next iPad idea/game changer that's better than sliced bread. But Apple should have by now. Maybe some unbelievable video display. Maybe some unbelievable Siri-type AI that can help me with research. Maybe a healtcare kit that ships with all iPads and includes a rectal thermometer. Oral is too dangerous in our "new normal" of viruses hiding behind trees, ready to POUNCE at any moment!

No more game changers left at Apple. Jobs was the last one.
Anyhow, who needs a game changer when your guys are so busy adding more of these cute emojis every month

 

[falainber]

I actually think that cannibalizing the Mac is the goal.

Well, it is, sorta. Intel meets with Apple years in advance, Intel provides the roadmap giving Apple assurances that they will have processors that can suit their future computers on the dates that they have indicated, then Apple builds systems to meet those requirements. Unfortunately, if Intel doesn’t meet their goals, then Apple has designed a system that Intel doesn’t have a chip to drive.

It’s actually pretty easy. Out of ALL of Intel’s processor, from the i3 and below all the way up to Xeon, Apple uses about 5-9 parts a year, mostly on the mid and higher end of the model lines. So, if Intel updates ALL the other lines, yet doesn’t update these (and it makes sense... other lines are easier to make/lower end or higher profit/upper end desktop class), then Apple goes a year without an update.

Milking the Mac you say? Now where have I heard that before?

I don‘t have facts to dispute your claim, but anectodotally, I haven’t seen an office with desktops in quite awhile.

No, never. Macs at their lofty prices have never been for average consumers.

And that’s not a shame, it’s a triumph of function over form! You’ve taken the first step into a world plentiful options and styles.

Apple is the fourth biggest (about to become the fifth) PC maker. I am not sure Intel pays much attention to them.

 

[rp2011]

All intel personal computers. They are a thing of the past.

Do you mean Intel Macs or Intel for the entire personal computer market space?

I think it's possible that Apple will drop Intel/switch CPU vendors, like they have done in the past. But Intel is still powering the vast majority of personal computers, business computers, and servers. Unless AMD kills Intel, Intel will be around for another 20+ years easily. If Apple tries to kill intel on their computers and switch to Apple-created CPUs, I think the Macs will suffer harshly. Macs have never had more than 8% marketshare. Sure, Apple will do it's due diligence to make their A chip 100% compatible with Intel but stuff will break.

Personally, I don't think Apple knows what the heck to do with the iPad series and the Macbooks...and it's been this way for a good 5+ years. The 2 lines intersect at quite a few places. But let's be real: iPads/tablets will likely never replace computers given the physical differences/utilization (mice, physical keyboards, i/o options, etc). Computers will never replace tablets (how can you beat a $99 Amazon Fire if all you want is some video streaming, email, and some web surfing?).

Apple needs a game changer for the iPad. It hasn't changed significantly from a user-point of view since Version 2. Camera and screen improvements are to be expected. Passwords/security is to be expected. Updates to Safari are to be expected. Where are the 2020 killer Apple features of any of the iPads? Nothing. Even since 2015 there's been nothing except ever-changing iOS icons, locations, feature re-organizations in Settings, etc. The Pencil is a joke and is extremely expensive.

I don't have the next iPad idea/game changer that's better than sliced bread. But Apple should have by now. Maybe some unbelievable video display. Maybe some unbelievable Siri-type AI that can help me with research. Maybe a healtcare kit that ships with all iPads and includes a rectal thermometer. Oral is too dangerous in our "new normal" of viruses hiding behind trees, ready to POUNCE at any moment!

 

[falainber]

All intel personal computers. They are a thing of the past.

Interesting. And Ithought Intel has been setting sales records quarter after quarter lately. What's replacing those computers? iPhones? Definitely not iPads. iPad sales are way down compared to five years ago.

 

[rp2011]

Interesting. And Ithought Intel has been setting sales records quarter after quarter lately. What's replacing those computers? iPhones? Definitely not iPads. iPad sales are way down compared to five years ago.

Let’s bookmark this comment. Sounds awful similar to what both RIM and Microsoft said when asked about their phone future after the iPhone

All computers are slowly moving from Intel to AMD and ARM. That’s tablets, laptops and PC’s
EVERY device category .

*Also note that Intel is not setting sales records lol
They are keeping afloat with high margin data center chips that will go the way personal computer chips soon enough as AMD and ARM chips cut into that market too .
Intel is a dead company walking.