More data on Steve's death (he did say the rumors were greatly exaggerated). Mac Pro's, updates on how many iTunes apps have been sold and how great the SDK is, update on the next greatest, funnest, fastest, life altering OS, updates from Intel, perhaps some wildly uncomfortable software marketing VP of a major developer that just figured out how to incorporate cover flow into their UI, possibly a start-up software developer that has created something seemingly cool but not available for another few months. I might also bank on introductions of new technologies i.e. 3D imaging. We can also assume there will be an emphasis on "green" technologies.
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MacBook Shipments Have Begun?
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More data on Steve's death (he did say the rumors were greatly exaggerated). Mac Pro's, updates on how many iTunes apps have been sold and how great the SDK is, update on the next greatest, funnest, fastest, life altering OS, updates from Intel, perhaps some wildly uncomfortable software marketing VP of a major developer that just figured out how to incorporate cover flow into their UI, possibly a start-up software developer that has created something seemingly cool but not available for another few months. I might also bank on introductions of new technologies i.e. 3D imaging. We can also assume there will be an emphasis on "green" technologies.
I agree with you that eventually optical drives will disappear. But I don't agree with the term short lived.
Most likely Blu-ray will be around at least 8-10 years. Thats not really short lived for hard media.
Remember 1080p is going to be set as the new maximum for broadcast and HD distribution for quite sometime. Prices on blu-ray will drop substantially over time. HD content is increasingly more and more available. 25 - 50 GB flash drives would have to drop a lot in price to be used for mass distribution at a competitive level with optical media.
I forget who it was exactly, but the head of a well known tech company (if anyone remembers please post!) recently stated he doesnt see bluray really being huge 5 years from now. He did state that next year is going to be the golden age of bluray.
And at the rate flash memory is coming to maturation, expect large flash drives being VERY competitive in the next 2-3 years.
Ditto. I love my MX Rev. The MM makes my hand ache after using it for about 15 minutes.
Snow Leopard, iLife updates, Apple TV, Mac Pro, Mac mini, ACD's. That's more than enough for Steve at MW 2009. On top of that, I have a feeling that Apple is working on their own set of terrific iphone apps.
These touch based apps will be the core set of apps that will introduce an expanded SDK that supports larger device functions.
All prep work for the unveiling of the Apple Tablet at Apple Developers Conference.
Ironically, it was one of Blu-ray's strongest supporters, and the largest producer of flash memory -- Samsung.
Flash prices have been dropping VERY quickly. If I remember correctly, something like 50-65% price drop in the last few years. I know we all remember when that 256 mb flash drive cost us $40... I don't even think they make them that small anymore, at least not in retail.
But will they fall below a few cents per 25GB, which is where blu-ray optical media will be at in year.
How much do you think the production houses pay for DVD optical media used for movie releases?
5 cents, 10 cents?
lol, i don't know anything about glass trackpads, but i have heard the macbook pro's display is sleeker, more iphone-like. not sure _how_ iphone-like, but something bezel-less.
bluray would be nice, too, but i'm not holding my breath.
Thank you kind sir!
And honestly ive never seen bluray as anything but a gimmick. It is still optical media just with more storage, yes its good for the here and now, but moving on is the way to go in terms of technology.
Im not sure you understand quite how fast FLASH technology is moving. You can always get better faster and smaller with electronics, discs will eventually (and are most likely quite close) to reaching their peak.
Exactly... if you can get a tricked out gig flash drive for $4.25, retail price... can it really be that difficult for software manufacturers to put their software onto a flash drive?
While I'm sure they still cost more than pressed DVDs, they are also much, much faster, universally usable, and have a residual value after the software becomes useless.
Maybe it's unrealistic for a $30 program (though all $30 programs are downloads, aren't they?), but for a massively expensive program like Photoshop... what's a couple bucks for better media?
Few people currently have Bluray. Many people don't even have DVD readers.
Think of the last time you've used or seen someone using a computer that doesn't have a USB port.
Another reason i dont think bluray will be the HUGE (it will be sucessful of course, just not amazing) success is that really, most people (read: not us tech guys or the ppl that demand the best of the best, which really cant make up more than 10% of the market max) are MORE than happy with DVD quality. That and the fact that HDTVs still arent the norm just means bluray does seem gimmicky to the uninformed (or the content).
just my 2 cents tho
It's not about programs, it's about movies. Newegg's cheapest 32 GB flash is $80. Double-layer BD discs can be found for $15.
$80 for blank media vs. $15 for media with content?
And with 200 GB BD on the horizon - optical will still far surpass flash for a few more years.
The February shutdown of analog TV in the US may be a sea change in that regard. A few million tonnes of old analog TVs will hit the hazard waste disposal sites, and HD capable sets will be their replacements.
Watch one good BD movie (I recommend "House of Flying Daggers" for a starter, or "Pirates III") with a TrueHD signal (AKA 1080p). You'll never accept up-sampled DVD as anything better than "OK" after that.
AT the rate flash is dropping in price and skyrocketing in memory id say 2-3 years and it will be the much cheaper alternative.
Moore's law still continues to be valid in the world today.
as silly as this seems now:
http://uk.gizmodo.com/2008/09/04/ghostbusters_usb_who_you_gonna.html
It has already begun, and major companies have been thinking it over for years.
http://uk.gizmodo.com/2008/09/04/ghostbusters_usb_who_you_gonna.html
It has already begun, and major companies have been thinking it over for years.
I'll be keeping my 10-year-old TV. It will work just fine with Cable. The only thing changing in Feb is that over-the-air broadcasts will no longer be picked up by older TVs.
The problem is that I HAVE seen bluray, at full HD, and im just one of those people that doesnt care that much. Im more than happy with DVD as it is. I realize it will be shoved out of the market by bluray at some point. That is when this user will convert, when i literally have no other choice.
In my pocket, I have a 128mb flash drive that I bought in late 2002 for $79.99 plus tax at the Apple Store in Palo Alto. Still works, although slowly (USB 1.1).
and now u can pick a 128mb drive for less than $5. In fact my 1gb drive cost me $10. If thats not an amazing drop i dont know what is, its only been 6 years!
Lol
From that link:
"The 2GB USB stick can handle 12 hours of video"
The fine print should say "or 8 to 10 minutes of HD that you'd actually want to watch".
Yes, I don't doubt that flash will be the next format - but I'll lay odds that BD will be the HD format for the next 5 years.
And it won't be USB thumb drives that prevail - it will be SDHC.
(MicroSD and MiniSD are just too small for humans - in fact I'd bet on a new format where a credit-card sized device holding 50 to 100 GB was the standard.)
From that link:
"The 2GB USB stick can handle 12 hours of video"
The fine print should say "or 8 to 10 minutes of HD that you'd actually want to watch".
Yes, I don't doubt that flash will be the next format - but I'll lay odds that BD will be the HD format for the next 5 years.
And it won't be USB thumb drives that prevail - it will be SDHC.
(MicroSD and MiniSD are just too small for humans - in fact I'd bet on a new format where a credit-card sized device holding 50 to 100 GB was the standard.)