Macworld San Francisco 2006 Rumor Wrapup: Winners and Losers

[sblinn]

32-bit intel: buy in or wait?

I was pretty psyched about the MacBooks, but roadmaps show that Intel will have 64-bit mobile processors this fall. Common sense suggests that there will be Intel 64-bit Apple laptops shortly after. It just doesn't seem to make sense to buy into a platform that is already planned for obsolescence in barely half a year. Any thoughts?

 

[Pedro.]

This year's Macworld San Francisco was a total shame IMO ....

I mean none of the new products were THAT AMAZING !

iLife '06 and iWork '06 are so not worth buying (excepet maybe for iWeb) .

MacBook was the best announcement, however, the processor speed was not fast enough compared to other laptops using intel core duo such as Vaio FE series and Dell Inspiron E1705 (2 GHz). Plus i expected Apple to introduce a totally new design for the Macbook. It's not that i don't like the powerbook design but we could use some change after all these years !

I have to say that i was disappointed ...

anyone agrees with me ?

 

[shawnce]

anyone agrees with me ?

No

 

[colinp]

I'm surprised nobody seems to mention the built in iSight in the MacBook Pro (it's going to take a bit to get used to writing that... what a strange name!). I, personally, find that to be a pretty damn sweet upgrade. I wonder whether the 12" PB will have an iSight... Damn. I WISH my 12" PB had an iSight built in!

Guess we'll have to wait and see, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[Macmaniac]

I am actually pretty surprised at how accurate the rumors sites were. Although this years release was a little bit more predictable. We got the usual crazy rumor from left field with the TV idea. It would be nice if one of these left field rumors turns out to be true. It would be pretty cool. Now that MWSF is over even more exciting Tuesdays are to come.

 

[DHagan4755]

I am actually pretty surprised at how accurate the rumors sites were.

Make that rumor site. AppleInsider was the ONLY rumor site to accurately predict what was to come.

 

[AidenShaw]

if you need it now, buy it. if you can wait, do.

I was pretty psyched about the MacBooks, but roadmaps show that Intel will have 64-bit mobile processors this fall. Common sense suggests that there will be Intel 64-bit Apple laptops shortly after. It just doesn't seem to make sense to buy into a platform that is already planned for obsolescence in barely half a year. Any thoughts?

It's hard to make a recommendation, since Apple has said nothing about plans for 64-bit on Intel. It's almost like a Soviet-era history rewrite - "64-bit" seems to have never happened.

Unlike PowerPC - Intel 64-bit ("x64") is actually faster than 32-bit. This is because the x64 architecture has some fundamental improvements over the x86 32-bit architecture.

On PowerPC, 64-bit programs usually run a little slower than 32-bit programs. There's no point in rewriting for 64-bit unless you really need more than 2 or 3 GiB of RAM *per application* (64-bit isn't needed for a system to support more than 4 GiB - the Intel 32-bit and G4 can support 64 GiB of physical RAM).

On x64, however, 64-bit programs run faster than 32-bit - 20% faster is a typical number. Even if you don't need more than 2 GiB of RAM, you want 64-bit if performance is important.

However, 10.4's 64-bit support is almost completely brain-damaged. Cocoa and Carbon (that is, GUI or windowed apps) can't use 64-bit. Only simple, "terminal", apps can be 64-bit. The only way to use 64-bit in a typical app is to completely rewrite it to have a 32-bit graphical user interface portion communicating with a backend 64-bit worker portion - two separate jobs in the system.

But, since Apple isn't talking about 64-bit any more, what do you do?
___________________________

Bottom line - if the slow speed of the current Powerbook/iMac is a big hassle for you, get the faster Intel systems.

If it isn't a hassle today, wait for WWDC - Apple has to address the x64 question then or it will lose all credibility.

And, if at WWDC Apple says that they do a 10.4-like 64-bit on x64 - think about switching. Note that Windows x64 is a true 64-bit port - graphical and other apps get the faster speed - while maintaining 32-bit compatibility for older apps or those that don't need the speed. Apple needs to copy Windows....

 

[EricNau]

I think we should expect some of the missing products on April 1st (30 year anniversary). Like the Intel Mac Minis and the iBooks. Maybe even a brand new product like a 40"+ iMac Media Edition.

 

[Super Dave]

Whatever happened to that "Asteroid" rumor that ThinkSecret got in trouble for a while ago?

It was released. It was actually a third party product that Apple helped out with. No one noticed its release, but I remember reading about it on the forum here months back. Anyone have the old link?

David

 

[iIra]

I see no reason to upgrade my copy of iLife. The improvements aren't very impressive. I've never used iWork simply because it isn't a complete office suite, so I don't feel like spending money for it. The Macbook Pro makes me reminisce about the G4 Powerbook. That new power connector is nice, but I'm not sure it should come at the expense of Firewire 800. I was surprised that it was the pro level notebook, because I thought they were going to hold out for merom for that.

I've been following LoopRumors' return, and hope they turn out to be a useful source. Most of their correct predictions this time seem like just good guesses (maybe), but even if that were so, to their credit at least they didn't predict a bunch of wrong stuff.

The most interesting thing there, for me, is that they are just about the only ones reporting detailed rumors/reports about 10.5/Leopard. (Two past reports, one more expected soon?) There's no telling yet if those reports are connected to reality, but stories of future OS X features are fun all the same!

I also liked the rumors about Leopard. It would be nice to not have to wait for an updated copy of TransparentDock every time Apple updates the OS. The animated dock icons and the screensaver/desktop wallpaper features sound nice, but I hope they don't take up too much RAM.

 

[Indo]

This year's Macworld San Francisco was a total shame IMO ....

I mean none of the new products were THAT AMAZING !

iLife '06 and iWork '06 are so not worth buying (excepet maybe for iWeb) .

MacBook was the best announcement, however, the processor speed was not fast enough compared to other laptops using intel core duo such as Vaio FE series and Dell Inspiron E1705 (2 GHz). Plus i expected Apple to introduce a totally new design for the Macbook. It's not that i don't like the powerbook design but we could use some change after all these years !

I have to say that i was disappointed ...

anyone agrees with me ?

i bet they're saving that 2GHz core duo for the 17" powerbook. i guess you could say the laptop is thinner...

 

[amateurmacfreak]

Hey does anyone know for sure if the price for the upcoming ibook/macbook will be dropped a bit? Or kept the same price? Or dare I say it more expensive

More expensive = business suicide. Especially for your average consumer who wants a nice looking entry-level laptop from Apple. If over $1,000 starting.... would be absolutely dumb.

 

[suzerain]

exactly on mark

edited my post after re-reading the summary, as the write-up was only talking about some of his pronouncements as "exactly on mark"...I just think this Rose guy is getting too much credit for his last minute source, who was telling us stuff that other reports had already told us anyway.

 

[arn]

edited my post after re-reading the summary, as the write-up was only talking about some of his pronouncements as "exactly on mark"...I just think this Rose guy is getting too much credit for his last minute source, who was telling us stuff that other reports had already told us anyway.

well, it was last minute... so it's hard to get too excited about it... but there's really no doubt that it was a legitimate source. I don't think he guessed the term "MacBook" out of blue.

arn

 

[nagromme]

While we're on the subject of predicting WRONG... this UNIX IT consultant's article from a month ago deserves mention:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Murphy/index.php?p=479

He said no Intel PowerBooks AT ALL until 2007!

"Intel is just not going to happen for Apple next year - no Powerbooks, no iMacs, no Workstations, and no X-Serves."

In fact, he said Yonah (Core Duo) wasn't even ready and "may simply never make it to volume production." He expected that at MWSF Apple would unveil the OLD Pentium M in an iBook or Mac Mini, and then no more Intel Mac releases for the rest of 2006

He also said that Apple would have to RAISE the price of the iBook--and start using cheaper, unreliable components like Dell does--just to afford using the OLD Pentium M:

"In other words to hold the list price constant on the iBook in the face of such a massive cost increase for the CPU, they'll have to reduce both customer discounts and their own margins, take a big downstream hit on component quality, and give up on CPU level MacOS X authentication."

Meanwhile, while he says Core Duo is vaporware, he is somehow positive that IBM and Freescale have a year's worth of next-generation laptop chips that they CAN ship in quantity!

He thinks Apple is stupid not to stick with the G4 and G5 for one more year. By going with Intel, he is convinced, Apple is dooming themselves:

"Sadly, however, good sense isn't that likely to break out where personalities are on the line -instead we're more likely to see Apple spend money along with both customer and developer loyalty on building enthusiasm for Intel solutions that are virtually guaranteed to eventually gut the company financially."

What can I say? Where did all THAT come from?

Looks like Yonah is real, at any rate ...although quantities aren't yet proven, and delays may happen. But somehow I think Intel WILL deliver volume production. (And yes, I know G4s are cheaper. As they should be! Which does raise the question of Apple's profit margins, but I'm sure it's worth it to increase sales volume/market share. And volume, in turn, lowers the cost of other components WITHOUT having to stoop to Dell quality.)

I was pretty psyched about the MacBooks, but roadmaps show that Intel will have 64-bit mobile processors this fall.

Yes. Intel has their next generation 64-bit platform coming in the second half of this year: Merom for laptops, Conroe for desktops. I am sure Apple will use both, and I think Conroe will replace the G5 in PowerMacs. Details of the new Merom/Conroe platform seem to be scarce at this point--including a precise timeframe.

As for the decision to wait or not: there's ALWAYS something better coming. Wait for Merom and there will be something ELSE coming. Technology marches forward. Wait if you don't need a computer now. If you need one now, don't wait

 

[200paul]

A mis-information campaign

I have been speculating for a long time about the Think Secret etc. lawsuits and these rumors that never come true.

Knowing a few people at Apple and how they work in totally separate "pods" that never know what other teams are doing at all until sometimes the day of release, I have often speculated about a mis-information campaign being put out.

Steve and Co. want to know the source of the leaks obviously. Letting certain teams know about certain fake rumors and seeing which ones make it to the boards make for an easy way to seek out the moles.

This was done by the horrible Godzilla movie Matthew Broderick did back in the day. They didn't want partners to leak the picture of the beast so they let them have fake images to start working on their tie-in products with and then they waited to see what showed up. Hanes (Underoos) was the first to leak within days and i believe it ruined a few peoples careers and some corporate relationships. Terrorists evidentally have be doing this too to flush out moles and mess with the CIA/FBI's crappy intelligence gathering.

Whoever is feeding this information - I would be a bit more carefull. You just might be tipping your hand and setting yourself up.... but don't stop because I love the rumors!!!!

P.S. About Asteroid: I also know that that those teams work on products up until what they think is production but design and marketing materials etc get thrown away all the time for new products that just don't make the cut. Its has to be a crazy way to work.

 

[solvs]

It's a shame about TS, they used to have fairly good credibility, though they have gotten things wrong in the past. I hope nobody believed O'Grady. I'd believe SpyMac or DigiTimes over that site any day. But these were just rumors, so while I was hoping for a new shuffle, iBook, and mini, what was released was pretty ok. New iBook and mini in the spring sound about right. Maybe a quiet shuffle upgrade or a new lowend iPod.

And of course, Apple plasma displays next Tuesday.

 

[slb]

I was pretty psyched about the MacBooks, but roadmaps show that Intel will have 64-bit mobile processors this fall. Common sense suggests that there will be Intel 64-bit Apple laptops shortly after. It just doesn't seem to make sense to buy into a platform that is already planned for obsolescence in barely half a year. Any thoughts?

This is the concern making me hesitate purchasing the new iMac, which I really, really want. It's a powerful system, but the thought that 64-bit chips are coming this fall makes me worry I'd be obsoleted. There are 64-bit PowerPC chips already, but apps have stayed 32-bit because that's what was in the laptops and older Macs, and the incentive wasn't there.

I guess it's a question of how many years app authors plan to support the older 32-bit PowerPC and Core Duo chips. By the time a couple of years roll by and things are mostly 64-bit, it'd be time to get a new iMac anyway. But still, it sucks to worry. As I understand it, there's actually not a great amount of benefit of going to 64-bit in most applications, but I'm thinking along the lines of a future 64-bit audio engine in Logic. Cakewalk Sonar currently offers a 64-bit version of its app, but managed to make its 64-bit audio engine available in the 32-bit version as well. I hope Logic follows suit if I decide to get the new iMac.

I have to admit being uneducated on the ramifications of 64-bit on the Mac, particularly 64-bit OS X Tiger which still supports 32-bit processors. Could an app be compiled to support both 64-bit and 32-bit simultaneously? I'm okay with being a little slower than 64-bit as long as I don't lose out on binary compatibility. I'm assuming it's probably not that simple. AidenShaw's post was very informative, and I want to know more. Somebody learn me somethin'.

 

[aswitcher]

I think TS have correct info, but these products are just not out yet. I'll give it to April to see it work out.

I'll be watchign Dgg closely now for Apple rumours.

 

[Hattig]

Well done AppleInsider for that correct rumour at the beginning.

That not many people believed, because (1) the iMac had just been updated, and (2) surely the consumer machines would go intel before the pro machines.

Can Apple shave $1000 off the price of the MacBook Pro in order to make a 13" MacBook? Possibly. However I'm fairly certain it would either use an upcoming Celeron Duo type processor, or a standard Pentium M or Celeron M. It would also use integrated graphics. Other savings (cheaper materials, cheaper hard drives, cheaper RAM (DDR2-533, not DDR2-667), and so on could cut the bill of materials significantly.

 

[paulchen]

leopard

hey, will the new imac intel be compatible with leopard? that's an important question for me, because I want to buy one tomorrow and I want the now os, when it will be in the shops, too. I have an ibook and due to me my father has bought an imac g5 20''. I hope you can help me.

 

[SiliconAddict]

hey, will the new imac intel be compatible with leopard?

Yes.

 

[paulchen]

Yes.

Good news for me. And thank you amsn for the webcam implementation.

 

[BornAgainMac]

hey, will the new imac intel be compatible with leopard? that's an important question for me, because I want to buy one tomorrow and I want the now os, when it will be in the shops, too. I have an ibook and due to me my father has bought an imac g5 20''. I hope you can help me.

Upgrades are another source of revenue for Apple. It will be much larger in 2 to 3 years compared to now as the installed base grows. Universal binaries is a key component of supporting multiple CPUs including 32/64 bit programs. In the past, prior upgrades supported older hardware with no problems. You should expect the iMac to be supported for the next 10 years of new operating system upgrades.

Additional information about Leopard will probably be provided at the Developer's conference in June.

 

[AidenShaw]

whether you'd want to use it is another question

In the past, prior upgrades supported older hardware with no problems. You should expect the iMac to be supported for the next 10 years of new operating system upgrades.

10 years is a long time... Ten years ago a typical Apple had a 1.2 GB disk. The maximum amount of RAM supported in a ten year old Powerbook is 64 MiB! (Not 64 MiB of video memory, but 64 MiB of total system memory)

The oldest supported systems for OSX 10.4 don't go back 10 years:

1999 - PM G3 (B&W)
2000 - PB G3 (Firewire)
1999 - iMac (Slot-loading)
2002 - eMac
2000 - iBook (Firewire)

http://www.apple.com/macosx/upgrade/requirements.html
http://www.apple-history.com/
_________________________________

It's safe to say, however, that the iMacIntel just released will be supported through the next couple of OSX upgrades.

More to the point, it'll probably be supported by OSX longer than you want to keep the machine. In a few years, you'll want something faster and newer, and 64-bit.

The 32-bit chip will probably be the reason you end up dragging the iMac to the trash can. In a few years you'll think that only 2 GiB (or even 4 GiB) of RAM is hopelessly small. New applications will be optimized for 64-bit, and some apps that you'll want will be 64-bit only.

The 32-bit MacIntels won't be a good long-term investment.... These are transition machines, and within 6 months or so you may see the real 64-bit laptop chips showing up. (64-bit MacIntels for Paris Expo?) How long will developers continue to focus on 32-bit - when the 32-bit systems might only be produced for a matter of months before 64-bit shows up?

If you need the speed and have the cash, go for it and have a couple of years of fun. If you don't have the cash - well, you might end up still paying off the loan after you no longer want to be using the 32-bit iMac or MacBook.