I've honestly lost interest in this story. At this point I doubt they will ever find the plane and if they do it will be a few years from now.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 missing
- Thread starter quagmire
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
I have a true interest in the search, but now that some of the news is starting to sensationalize some of the stories (like the "pilots' lavash housing", like nobody knows that pilots that fly big planes tend to make some money), I'm losing interest in their coverage of the story.
I still can not believe a plane like that can be lost. I mean, if the transponder is off so does it make it stealth? I know something big still showing in radar but I can not believe anybody was curious enough to make contact and send plane to look at it.
The transponder only sends data about the identity of the object but without transponder the object still showing.
I believe there is something tricky. Who knows if some government shot down the plane and no one is saying anything.
It is a huge mystery and what worries is that every single plane out there can run the same luck right now. Vanishing without leaving a trace.
The transponder only sends data about the identity of the object but without transponder the object still showing.
I believe there is something tricky. Who knows if some government shot down the plane and no one is saying anything.
It is a huge mystery and what worries is that every single plane out there can run the same luck right now. Vanishing without leaving a trace.
That's assuming the diversion was unsuccessful, right? There may be quite a few countries trying to nail down whether there's still an outstanding Part Two to this thing, and whether it's something more organized and imminent than stashing a 777 under camouflage and trying to keep it from degrading in salt air (or getting scratched up by desert sandstorms) while the final mission is set up. Tens on tens of millions of dollars have already been spent on trying to figure out where that plane has "landed" and no one should think it's solely out of empathy for the families of the passengers.
As far as possible military termination of the diverted flight is concerned: I don't know how a country that might know absolutely how this flight ended would manage to convey that information. It sounds cruel, but a country will put its national interest in keeping its military capabilities secret before stepping up to a mike to say "We saw it get taken down" or "We took it down because it wouldn't self-identify." Any country's government could understand why another country would take out a rogue flight, but that doesn't mean it's diplomatically (or domestically) possible to just say so and own the act. And consider that neighborhood if you will...
Who knows why someone might want to divert the flight. But everyone charged with standing watch on a wall tonight --while the rest of us sleep-- is interested in finding out what the heck happened to a plane big enough to break a lot of windows on its final mission, assuming it's not already accomplished or failed.
Meanwhile I have nothing but empathy for the families, friends and colleagues of the passengers. The not knowing must be so terrible, even if there is no good news to be had in the end.
An interesting map from CBC. It shows and lists 23 flights that carried 20 or more passengers that 'disappeared' are still missing. On CBC's list the last time a flight disappeared (prior to MH370) was in 1973. Also, the largest one carried 107 passengers and was lost in 1962. There were about 8 (depending on how you count) missing flights in and around North America.
These comments are starting to remind me of the 1947 British South American Airways disappearance:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_BSAA_Avro_Lancastrian_Star_Dust_accident
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_BSAA_Avro_Lancastrian_Star_Dust_accident
Phone home?
I haven't lost interest. Its intriguing to me.
But yes, the only good news I can ever think about these situations is that it always results in changes in the industry and safer flights.
I think the spokespeople are right to wait for confirmation before speaking or acting on it - and not using conjecture - but we can do this - because it won't affect the reality of the situation.
I DO hope there is some happy ending, but the facts don't look good.
I tend to subscribe to the simplest answer being the likeliest, and that means it's not a coincidence of all the aircraft's location devices being turned off by some system malfunction.
However, one thought /scenario occurs to me, and I'm sure some others will clarify any mistakes I make.
It's just that (if I remember correctly) when 9/11 occurred, a phone call was briefly made from a passenger on a plane to his wife.
And so - why not from this plane ?
Yes, I know there's a load of 'buts and ifs' but surely in a life or death situation / close to death (even if subject to death threats, I still think one in 200 passengers was likely to take the risk to try to use a phone)
So, best scenario - if:
They were flying over land AND
one of the passengers was alive, awake AND
had use of the phone AND
was in range of a cell AND
made a call (even unsuccessful) - something would be reported
- or of course the phones were all off out of the possibilty of using Find phone.
So therefore :
- Likelihood greater of flying over water - no cells
- The opposite could always be true - any perpetrators need a plane of this type for some future use. Go north for terrorists bases).
- If people alive/or not then why no blackmail/hijack/psychologically distressed messages or claims ?
Like I say, I feel for the victims and relatives, I DO so hope for some possitive news and even a 'late in the day' 'Andes' type rescue.
We will see.
I haven't lost interest. Its intriguing to me.
But yes, the only good news I can ever think about these situations is that it always results in changes in the industry and safer flights.
I think the spokespeople are right to wait for confirmation before speaking or acting on it - and not using conjecture - but we can do this - because it won't affect the reality of the situation.
I DO hope there is some happy ending, but the facts don't look good.
I tend to subscribe to the simplest answer being the likeliest, and that means it's not a coincidence of all the aircraft's location devices being turned off by some system malfunction.
However, one thought /scenario occurs to me, and I'm sure some others will clarify any mistakes I make.
It's just that (if I remember correctly) when 9/11 occurred, a phone call was briefly made from a passenger on a plane to his wife.
And so - why not from this plane ?
Yes, I know there's a load of 'buts and ifs' but surely in a life or death situation / close to death (even if subject to death threats, I still think one in 200 passengers was likely to take the risk to try to use a phone)
So, best scenario - if:
They were flying over land AND
one of the passengers was alive, awake AND
had use of the phone AND
was in range of a cell AND
made a call (even unsuccessful) - something would be reported
- or of course the phones were all off out of the possibilty of using Find phone.
So therefore :
- Likelihood greater of flying over water - no cells
- The opposite could always be true - any perpetrators need a plane of this type for some future use. Go north for terrorists bases).
- If people alive/or not then why no blackmail/hijack/psychologically distressed messages or claims ?
Like I say, I feel for the victims and relatives, I DO so hope for some possitive news and even a 'late in the day' 'Andes' type rescue.
We will see.
You can forget cell phones. This clearly looks like a inside job with the pilot and maybe the copilot and most likely others on board. Since no wreckage has been found and no signal from the black box has been detected it is becoming pretty clear that the intent was to steal the plane and fly it somewhere and hide it.
Going with that, the number one thing in planing this would be disabling all communications, tracking, transponder and anything else that would report any information from the plane to the ground or a satellite. This would include disabling/jamming cell phone use. A few cell phone jammers would easily cripple any phone from communicating with a cell tower when the plane got in range of one and of course flying under radar.
As monumental of a plan that is, it is not an impossible plan to implement. I'm sure many months maybe years went into researching different regions of the world where a plan like this can have a chance of happening.
Although I believe this is the likely scenario that has happened I would be shocked if these terrorist are able to carry out the second phase of this plan before someone tracks down the whereabouts of the plane and foils the master plan. We all know what the end result of this plan would be if this plane is in the wrong hands. All I can say is a 777 is one massive flying bomb.
As for the passengers they "might" still be alive for now but if this really is what is happening then at some point there are unfortunately expendable.
Good one!
A flaw is I believe the nearest land was straight ahead in Vietnam.
Also, even rural island have enough artificial light to see them, follow to some airport. At night an airport beacon can be seen at least 20 miles.
EDIT:
AforAndromeda's post made me think more as why no one tried to send out message, cell or otherwise (777 might have been equipped with sat internet).
1. Electrical short and fire started in cockpit (happened to a MD-11 SR111)
2. Pilots made a sharp turn to what they thought was nearest land.
3. Fire impacted communications early, radio, transponder, etc so they could not communicate problem (pilot training put control of airplane first, navigating second, and communicating last)
4. Cockpit became filled with smoke and pilots incapacitated.
5. Environmental Controls was also compromised, so air pressure decreased to unsustainable levels and all passengers lost consciousness.
6. Auto pilot still operated, set to the last heading, the Indian Ocean.
Yes, this is quite an astounding set of events, but it is will within the real of possibility.
(Still the rogue pilot idea is much more likely, as the timing of turn is suspicious)
Last edited:
I heard a military person involved in the search describe the current search area as like looking for a single individual between New York, and California. I'll add with 85% of the area is under water....
My understanding is that an aircraft that with a working transponder is more visible than a a raw radar target, which would be weaker but not invisible.
And it also had a human pilot and crew for most of the flight (parachuted out). It was then that a human pilot, in a chase plane, took control for the eventual crash.
But in 1984 NASA crashed a Boeing 720 (transport), flying it completely by remote control from a fixed ground location. Granted, that test took an enormous amount of planning and preparation (4+ years).
Michael
All the others on board are reported to have had their backgrounds checked, and there are reported connections to any nefarious groups so far. That said, this whole thing smells funny and I don't believe officials are giving out all they know. However, I would also suspect that the media have also been conducting background checks on all passengers and there would be some leakage into the public domain had they found anything fishy.
I agree that it looks like one or both pilots are involved.
I agree with the conclusion based on what is known about the route of the plane after the communications were cut. More accurate to say that because of where the wreckage and blackbox was not found in your statement.
Too complicated a plan, imo. You'd have to find and acquire a jammer, which one of the pilots could probably do admittedly without raising too much suspicion. But they would then need to smuggle it on board and then deploy it. I did a quick check and portable cell phone jammers seem to max out at about a 15metre range. A 777 is 75 metres in total (ain't the internet fun?). So you'd need a much bigger unit, which then needs to be tied into the planes power supply (instead of running on batteries) or a series of jammers that would need to be deployed by accomplices at the right time. Too complicated, imo. I suspect the pilot simply requested that passengers refrain from cell phone use because the plane was encountering severe weather and needed it's navigation systems not interfered with. This would account for the altitude the course changes passengers may be aware of as well as the plane snaked its way across southern Asia.
Since there doesn't appear to be any accomplices on board at this point, I suspect it was the plan of just one pilot, perhaps both.
Not terrorists - not yet at least. Simply hijackers. There is no announced political agenda (yet), so it doesn't meet the definition of terrorism.
While it probably will be made into a movie, keep in mind that this is not a Hollywood movie.
I suspect it eventually crashed into the Indian ocean with the tragic loss of all on board. Even if the pilot did manage to land it somewhere remote it isn't going anywhere without fuel, and a lot of it. Once you have enough people involved in a plot to steal the fuel and a fuel truck, move it to the remote location, etc etc you have a big enough conspiracy that some intelligence service somewhere will have brushed up against it. So far there has been no hint that officials are heading down this line.
Unfortunately... I think there has been a tragic loss of life, and we will probably never fully understand why.
Not really. Any smaller aircraft loaded with explosives would be more devastating and bring up much less attention (I don't think the USAF or any other AF would react slowly if an unidentified 777 penetrated their airspace two months from now). Besides, the airplane could have been damaged during the landing, and it's not like they could order new parts without raising suspicions. Also, filling up those tanks in a remote area would require some serious logistics.
I can imagine a few more scenarios:
-One of the pilots went haywire and somehow killed/incapacitated those who could stop him. What came after that can only be guessed, he might have run out of fuel and crashed into the sea, in which case we'll find in about 40-50 years when Google's future program "Seaview" will send robots to map the entire ocean bottom.
-They kidnapped the 200 people on board to ask for a ransom/political leverage (there are simpler ways to do that, but it's not impossible). They haven't asked for anything yet (or we haven't been told) or it could be that something went wrong, and the plane crashed, and with it the rest of the kidnapping plan.
-It's just a publicity stunt for an upcoming movie (unlikely at best)
Which makes me remember Iran Air Flight 655. And we wonder, here in the US, why they don't like us?
Michael
I somewhat agree, only from our news/media. It's getting ridiculous all the "experts" are saying.
But I still wonder what really happened. Mostly to those poor people aboard the flight. Whether it fell out of the sky (nose dive), exploded mid air, or even landed safely and the passengers are being held hostage; they are all terrible scenarios
(I started writing, but was pulled away before I finished, so reposted)
AforAndromeda's post made me think more as why no one tried to send out message, cell or otherwise (777 might have been equipped with sat internet).
1. Electrical short and fire started in cockpit (happened to a MD-11 SR111)
2. Pilots made a sharp turn to what they thought was nearest land.
3. Fire impacted communications early, radio, transponder, etc so they could not communicate problem (pilot training put control of airplane first, navigating second, and communicating last)
4. Cockpit became filled with smoke and pilots incapacitated (NOTE: pilots have and use O2 masks, but those are not perfect, otherwise the SR111 crash might not have happened)
5. Environmental Controls was also compromised, so air pressure decreased to unsustainable levels and all passengers lost consciousness.
6. Auto pilot still operated, set to the last heading, the Indian Ocean.
Yes, this is quite an astounding set of events, but it is will within the real of possibility.
(Still the rogue pilot idea is much more likely, as the timing of turn is suspicious)
AforAndromeda's post made me think more as why no one tried to send out message, cell or otherwise (777 might have been equipped with sat internet).
1. Electrical short and fire started in cockpit (happened to a MD-11 SR111)
2. Pilots made a sharp turn to what they thought was nearest land.
3. Fire impacted communications early, radio, transponder, etc so they could not communicate problem (pilot training put control of airplane first, navigating second, and communicating last)
4. Cockpit became filled with smoke and pilots incapacitated (NOTE: pilots have and use O2 masks, but those are not perfect, otherwise the SR111 crash might not have happened)
5. Environmental Controls was also compromised, so air pressure decreased to unsustainable levels and all passengers lost consciousness.
6. Auto pilot still operated, set to the last heading, the Indian Ocean.
Yes, this is quite an astounding set of events, but it is will within the real of possibility.
(Still the rogue pilot idea is much more likely, as the timing of turn is suspicious)
Last edited:
to be fair, at the time the persian gulf was a virtual war zone with the USA reflagging Kuwaiti oil tankers with the US flag due to attacks by Iran. and iran sent this plane at the missile cruiser right when their naval and air forces were playing games with it as well
check out KAL flight 800 as well. the russians blew that one up after it strayed into their airspace. theory is that the CIA played games with the location equipment and there was an AWACS following the civilian plane to listen to russian radio messages and see how long it takes them to react
You greatly over estimate how good radar is at the extreme ranges.
The B777 was hundreds of miles from radar installation, so signal returns would have been weak and not often marked as a object by the system.
Transponders work by sending out a radio pulse in the ideal frequency of the radar.
They also give 2 pieces of info, a controller assigned 4 digit code, and its altitude in the pulse, the only location info in the
It is really ancient technology.
Even then, parts of the world are so barren that radar might not even see the Transponder reply.
In a RL incident in 1989, I was once about 10 miles from a major airport at night, 2000~3000 foot, and saw another aircraft (light on). I reported it to the tower, but they did not have it on radar. So close yet not on radar.
GPS is passive. the satellites send the data and the receiver processes it.
the transponder was what sent the location data about the plane out to the world
But if the transponder can be turned off what good is it. We need a system not wired to the cockpit, but something that sends a signal to a central location.
A gps that sends a signal directly to a satellite and then to a head end somewhere on the globe.
They are on planes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipm...or_US_Domestic_Non-RNAV_Flights.5B2.5D.5B3.5D
The B772 being used was /L, which gave it RVSM plus everything included from being /L and having /G. GPS is part of /L.
BL.
What need would a pilot have to turn a transponder off? Should he have any control over it?
Can there be a system that is tamperproof.