Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 missing

[Huntn]

Press Conference now by Malaysian PM. The plane is believed to have deliberately flown towards a different direction. Amusing that it may have flown towards Kazakhstan.

This, this morning on USA Today: Malaysia: Plane's disappearance a 'deliberate action'

Reports now seem to indicate hijack versus strictly a mechanical issue, and if I had to bet, the scenario ended in a crash, but I having nothing substantial to say that. If this plane did not crash, they've got several hundred people locked up some where (or killed them) and I'd call that aircraft a very serious security threat.

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak said Saturday that communications on a Malaysia Airlines flight missing since last Saturday were disabled due to "deliberate action by someone on the plane" and that the last known signal from the airliner came more than seven hours after takeoff.

 

[kolax]

There was an interesting program on TV in the UK last night with a panel of experts including pilots, crash investigators etc. One of the pilots had an interesting theory "of course it is only speculation like the rest of us". His view was that there might have been "sudden de-compression". The pilot then turned the aircraft around before passing out and the aircraft then continue to fly itself.

That theory is out the window now it's ACARS was most likely turned off by someone onboard.

It really is quite the mystery where the jet has ended up. The media is keen to remind us the co-pilot was more than happy to have 'sexy female passengers' in the cockpit. If we go on the assumption that the plane was hijacked and ACARS turned off by someone onboard, then could the co-pilot have done something like that again allowing a hijacker easy access into the cockpit? The theories this was perhaps a Chinese separatist attack than the two Iranians onboard with the stolen passports are more likely.

However they are basing all this on the fact the plane kept 'pinging' satellites. Could a high altitude breakup allow for certain systems and their power to remain intact and continue to ping satellites?

It is a very curious story.

 

[Huntn]

That theory is out the window now it's ACARS was most likely turned off by someone onboard.

It really is quite the mystery where the jet has ended up. The media is keen to remind us the co-pilot was more than happy to have 'sexy female passengers' in the cockpit. If we go on the assumption that the plane was hijacked and ACARS turned off by someone onboard, then could the co-pilot have done something like that again allowing a hijacker easy access into the cockpit? The theories this was perhaps a Chinese separatist attack than the two Iranians onboard with the stolen passports are more likely.

However they are basing all this on the fact the plane kept 'pinging' satellites. Could a high altitude breakup allow for certain systems and their power to remain intact and continue to ping satellites?

It is a very curious story.

Not for 7 hours as a USA Today report (claimed by the Malaysian government). When a plane is demolished, the only thing left capable of transmitting is the black box. When an aircraft is shut down on the ramp, aircraft batteries are secured and nothing is transmitting.

 

[gnasher729]

How about if he took out a couple million dollars of insurance which would not pay out for suicide and he was trying to hide what he was doing.

I suppose any life insurance claims on this flight would be checked quite carefully. And people wanting to commit suicide usually don't plan in such a complicated way.

 

[CrickettGrrrl]

My question is: where can a plane that size be stealth-landed? I can see how an experienced pilot might be able to evade in-air detection, but not the landing.

 

[kolax]

My question is: where can a plane that size be stealth-landed? I can see how an experienced pilot might be able to evade in-air detection, but not the landing.

If it were hijacked, I'd imagine they'd do their homework. But it is puzzling that even military radars haven't really picked much up.

 

[rhett7660]

I am beginning to wonder if we are ever going to know what happened to this plane.

 

[0007776]

I am beginning to wonder if we are ever going to know what happened to this plane.

If it went down over water then I think there is a good chance that we don't. If it went down on land then I'd guess that someday someone will stumble across wreckage even if we don't find out anything sometime soon.

 

[snberk103]

My question is: where can a plane that size be stealth-landed? I can see how an experienced pilot might be able to evade in-air detection, but not the landing.

Lots of heavy deep jungle, and abandoned airstrips. It's an unlikely scenario of course, but it is well within the possible that the plane was landed on one of these abandoned airstrips and hidden. Especially since it seems the plane was hijacked (as opposed to just crashing), and hijacked it seems by someone who knew how to fly it and therefore how to land it as well.

I'd be surprised if they could fly a 777 into US airspace without being noticed (even with transponders off, etc) and shot down well in advance of getting near any major city.

I agree that it's too far to be much of threat to US airspace… but the US has lots of assets in the region that could be targeted. If the plane was hijacked to be used as a weapon it is unlikely that the US would be target in any case. That part of the world has enough conflicts of it's own.

I also think that this incident really points out the weaknesses in our 'defence security blanket'. Consider that the nations concerned Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, China, etc. are not exactly best friends and that they each have a sizeable and relatively modern military establishment. It boggles my mind that an aircraft as large as the 777 and with no special masking technology could go blundering around the sky - crossing several air defence zones - for something like 7 hours without really being tracked and identified.

 

[Huntn]

Lots of heavy deep jungle, and abandoned airstrips. It's an unlikely scenario of course, but it is well within the possible that the plane was landed on one of these abandoned airstrips and hidden. Especially since it seems the plane was hijacked (as opposed to just crashing), and hijacked it seems by someone who knew how to fly it and therefore how to land it as well.



I agree that it's too far to be much of threat to US airspace… but the US has lots of assets in the region that could be targeted. If the plane was hijacked to be used as a weapon it is unlikely that the US would be target in any case. That part of the world has enough conflicts of it's own.

I also think that this incident really points out the weaknesses in our 'defence security blanket'. Consider that the nations concerned Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, China, etc. are not exactly best friends and that they each have a sizeable and relatively modern military establishment. It boggles my mind that an aircraft as large as the 777 and with no special masking technology could go blundering around the sky - crossing several air defence zones - for something like 7 hours without really being tracked and identified.

Unless it was blundering out in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

 

[Ganesha]

Unless it was blundering out in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

Diego Garcia is in the central Indian Ocean. One would think with it's importance to US/UK forces it would have some of the most advanced radar systems. That could give a good idea of what airspace MA370 didn't fly over.

 

[snberk103]

Unless it was blundering out in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

If it turned north east it would have been into the South China sea - an area hotly contested right now by China and half a dozen other nations. They all have naval assets in the area.

East takes them over Indonesia. West or North West takes them back over Malaysia and/Thailand and then either over Indonesia or the Nicobar etc islands… which would have had military radar systems I would have thought. There aren't a lot of friendly nations in that area either.

 

[Huntn]

Diego Garcia is in the central Indian Ocean. One would think with it's importance to US/UK forces it would have some of the most advanced radar systems. That could give a good idea of what airspace MA370 didn't fly over.

Diego Garcia is a long way from Malaysia (2000+ miles) and it's just a speck out in a vast ocean.

If it turned north east it would have been into the South China sea - an area hotly contested right now by China and half a dozen other nations. They all have naval assets in the area.

East takes them over Indonesia. West or North West takes them back over Malaysia and/Thailand and then either over Indonesia or the Nicobar etc islands… which would have had military radar systems I would have thought. There aren't a lot of friendly nations in that area either.

How about a turn to the West back over Malaysia into the Indian Ocean?

Two scenarios- mechanical failure or hijack+avoidance. Authorities say what they suspect, but not their methodology of arriving at these conclusions. If there is a way to confidently determine that these devices on the aircraft were secured vs failing due to an on-board mechanical issue, then the hijackers were trying to avoid detection.

Based on indications of an extended flight (up to 7 hours) there would be 2 possibilities hijacked and 1) landed somewhere discretely, 2) later crashed after extended flight due to several possibilities, ran out of gas, passenger resistance, or hijacker incompetence. I see a real issue with dealing with several hundred passengers. It could have been that their intent to use the aircraft as a weapon, but for whatever reason, they failed. Just speculation at this point.

 

[Crusader007]

The Season 3 - episode 13 (4C) of Person of interest showed a dramatic scene of an airplane being remote controlled by Finch. Is it possible in reality? Is it possible to remote control a boeing 777? Just curious...

 

[0007776]

The Season 3 - episode 13 (4C) of Person of interest showed a dramatic scene of an airplane being remote controlled by Finch. Is it possible in reality? Is it possible to remote control a boeing 777? Just curious...

Not without heavily modifying it.

 

[snberk103]

....
Image

How about a turn to the West back over Malaysia into the Indian Ocean?

Two scenarios- mechanical failure or hijack+avoidance....

Everything I'm reading seems to indicate that the most likely scenario is that one or both of the pilots were in control of the plane - either under duress or for reasons of their own. And the Malaysian military is being asked why they didn't detect a rather large and unidentified plane across the peninsula. The missing plane turned off its transponders well over water to the east of Malaysia and then it seems flew back over the east coast towards the west. It's nice to have your map above to refer above. Depending on whether the plane flew more north or more west it would have also had to cross Indonesia or Thailand, and even perhaps Nicobar and the Andamans.

There are some military chiefs coming in for some difficult times trying to explain to their civilian bosses how $$millions spent on technology to supposedly detect small fast stealthy jets failed to see a big fat slow unstealthy airliner.

 

[DotCom2]

I suppose any life insurance claims on this flight would be checked quite carefully. And people wanting to commit suicide usually don't plan in such a complicated way.

As I posted earlier, I still really believe in the great possibility that this was indeed a pilot suicide. And the reason it was done is such a "complicated manner" as you say, is so that it would be covered up as a suicide and look more like a hijacking for whatever reason. Life Ins., protection of family members from the fallout, etc. etc. etc.

 

[snberk103]

As I posted earlier, I still really believe in the great possibility that this was indeed a pilot suicide. And the reason it was done is such a "complicated manner" as you say, is so that it would be covered up as a suicide and look more like a hijacking for whatever reason. Life Ins., protection of family members from the fallout, etc. etc. etc.

I don't believe it was pilot suicide... too complicated. You don't go to that much trouble to make it seem like a hijacking, without realizing that the authorities are then going to need to find that someone with links to a nefarious group needs to actually be on board to make it look like a hijacking. imho, at least

 

[DotCom2]

I don't believe it was pilot suicide... too complicated. You don't go to that much trouble to make it seem like a hijacking, without realizing that the authorities are then going to need to find that someone with links to a nefarious group needs to actually be on board to make it look like a hijacking. imho, at least

I can't believe that it flew over land totally undetected.
I guess time will tell.
A long time maybe, but it will.

 

[0007776]

I can't believe that it flew over land totally undetected.
I guess time will tell.
A long time maybe, but it will.

It's possible, some of the air defence systems may not be as good as countries would like their enemies to believe they are, or it may have been detected and misidentified. A guy was able to fly a Cessna from Scandinavia and land in Red Square in the 80's with our getting shot down, so it's not impossible to fly through air defence zones without getting caught, and I'd bet the Soviets were paying far more attention to their radar than a lot of countries in this part of the world.

 

[bradl]

The Season 3 - episode 13 (4C) of Person of interest showed a dramatic scene of an airplane being remote controlled by Finch. Is it possible in reality? Is it possible to remote control a boeing 777? Just curious...

Not without heavily modifying it.

Agreed.

Case in point: the series on the Discovery channel where they gave a B727 its "last rites" as they wanted to record what happened when a plane crashed. So they literally put a number of cameras inside the B727, and modified it to be remotely controlled. They took it up to a given altitude, then sent it crashing into the Sonora Desert.

Diego Garcia is in the central Indian Ocean. One would think with it's importance to US/UK forces it would have some of the most advanced radar systems. That could give a good idea of what airspace MA370 didn't fly over.

I have a few friends that work at ZLA Center in Palmdale. That sector covers the bulk of southern California, from the Mexico Border up to Avenal/Bakersfield, northeast to just south of Cedar City, UT, east to Page and Tuba City, AZ (covering the Grand Canyon) then back south to Yuma, AZ. They also cover to roughly 100nm off the coast. For those that obtain oceanic clearances going west/southwest, they have to obtain that clearance from San Francisco Radio, which covers most oceanic waters out to and including Guam.

I bring that up because it is that Flight Service station that covers that. Similar may exist for that area. Melbourne and Brisbane Oceanic covers around Australia, but in that area, I don't know if they extend that far west, or if it is India that extends that far south.

Either way, what aircraft will do when they pass a given waypoint, they will contact the FSS and give their current position (either in LAT/LON or the waypoint), time they crossed it (UTC), estimated time to their next waypoint and name of that waypoint, indicated airspeed, and ground speed.

for that area, especially around this base out there, That is in the middle of the main routes between S. Africa, Reunion, Mauritius, and the western sector of Melbourne's FSS. I believe Johannesburg's FSS covers the east side. Again, I'm not sure of the range they cover. But they don't provide radar service, like what ATC would over land to ensure positive separation; instead, they may issue headings based on the last position report.

So there may not be much that Diego Garcia has outside of an unknown target, especially if operating as a FSS, because to do so, you'd need at least a position report to identify what flight it is to get any other information on it.

BL.

 

[snberk103]

I can't believe that it flew over land totally undetected.
I guess time will tell.
A long time maybe, but it will.

New York Times, iirc, had a good article this morning. It seems that at least Malaysian air defence detected it… they just didn't do anything or tell anyone. Which of course makes the whole $$million pile of equipment kind of useless.

It's possible, some of the air defence systems may not be as good as countries would like their enemies to believe they are, or it may have been detected and misidentified. A guy was able to fly a Cessna from Scandinavia and land in Red Square in the 80's with our getting shot down, so it's not impossible to fly through air defence zones without getting caught, and I'd bet the Soviets were paying far more attention to their radar than a lot of countries in this part of the world.

I think virtually all defence systems, including NORADs, are far less effective than our politicians would have us believe. And probably less effective than the military chiefs like telling their bosses.

I live near Nanoose Bay, which is leased from the Canadians by the US Navy to test torpedoes. In the early 1980s a US torpedo went wildly off-course. The point of Nanoose Bay is that it is shallow and sandy bottomed… so you let the torpedo run out of steam and sink to the bottom to be retrieved to figure out what went wrong. In this case it turned out that the torpedo was in fact operating exactly as designed.. in setting up the test however, they just hadn't counted on the Soviet submarine that had managed to sneak into the bay and then sit on the bottom quietly monitoring the tests on the torpedoes that would be used against the Soviet navy in any future conflict. The submarine likely didn't know the torpedo had no warhead … it just knew it had been 'found' by the torpedo's homing system. So it surfaced and hightailed it out of there…

 

[Muscle Master]

Ugh... where is this plane A triple 7 just don't vanish like that

hmm... you can put up to 4-6 pallets of freight on to a 777, 293 people equals to about 5 or 6 AKE's for bags. And then there's whatever in the bulk bin... I would love to see the manifest for the freight

I also wonder if there was any dangerous goods also

This is a mess

 

[PracticalMac]

What I am saying is this. Say you have a small fleet of ships. 5 or 6 for example.

Each ship has some sort of network connectivity between them. So you pretty much are creating a 5-port switch, made of ships.

Each one of those ships then creates a hotspot of some type (either from a carrier or WiFi, take your pick), that then extends the range that the "switch" provides (by inherently being WiFi).

When in range, a smartphone should pick up that WiFi signal. That gets them network access, which could either be monitored at the network level; If a device joins, the ships stop, and (hopefully it is left on), Location Services could do the rest of the work; Find My iPhone, for example.

This creates a roving mobile network, that could help in locating the phones, which in turn would help find the aircraft.

From an economic standpoint, wont work.

Even the Great Lakes are large enough to require hundreds of ships to do what you propose.
Each cell tower is designed to cover about 10~20 square miles.

Even at 9000ft flying at 100 MPH along a major interstate, cell service (AT&T) was by sheer luck, and usually lasted for a few minutes until signal dropped again.

UA93 calls where made mostly by "airphones", although 2 cell phone calls did manage to get though.

Regardless, their are much better ways to track and aircraft,
and the Transponder system is very, very old technology due to be replaced by ADS-B, some day.

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Ugh... where is this plane A triple 7 just don't vanish like that

Yes it can.

The reason AF447 was found a few days after it went missing was it was exactly along the flight path.

MH370 is no where near its planned flight path.

 

[0007776]

I think virtually all defence systems, including NORADs, are far less effective than our politicians would have us believe. And probably less effective than the military chiefs like telling their bosses.

And I think this will cause some difficulties with ever finding it even if it did go over land. If it did show up on radar and was misidentified, or something happened to keep fighters from being sent up to intercept it I'm not sure how excited any of those countries will be to admit to it and tell the world how a 777 can make it through their defence systems.