jxyama said:
if apple decides to support WMA, iTunes will need to support WMA. so WMA codec is licensed free?
that "95%" is already covered - it's called iTunes for Windows.
either way, right now, apple is not yet in "trouble." apple is clearly the leader and i believe the right thing to do is sit and see if others will follow the industry leader and support AAC.
WMA is far from being the industry standard. having many stores supporting the format does not mean it's the industry standard since iTMS is the one doing the most business. apple has vested interest in trying to make AAC the standard as well.
anyway, when jobs said iTMS is there to sell iPods, it was implied that selling iPods to turn more profit - not just to sell iPods for the sake of selling them. i believe supporting WMA at this point is not (yet) necessary, worthwhile nor profittable.
First of all, yes WMA is free. You can goto microsoft's web site and download the Windows Media Encoder which will make video into WMV and audio into WMA. The DRM companies use, however, is not free. i deal with this on a daily basis.
As for the other 95% being covered by iTunes for Windows, this only covers people who want the iPod and want to use the iTunes Music Store. It's very true that iTMS is there to sell iPods (or so Steve says...), which just proves the point that, right now, you choose your portable music player based on which service you want to use (unless you don't want to use any, in which case you choose based on features, cool factor, whatever). And yes, there is no denying the fact that iTMS and the iPod are on top and are not currently in any danger of loosing that.
However, if Microsoft were to orgainize music stores using WMA and companies making portable devices (like they did with Pocket PCs), you would be foolish to not see a threat. it's to both music stores and device manufactures best interests to be banding togeather, and Apple will once again be the outcast. Would your average music fan raher buy an iPod that can only listen to music Apple decides to make available through iTMS, or one that can listen to music from Coke, Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and others. Sony might be somewhat successful if they can convince fans of Sony Music that nothing else is any good. (BTW - Other music services can use AAC all they want, but unless they are using Fairplay, it won't work with your iPod/iTunes.)
I'm not saying Apple has no future in the portable music business, I'm just saying that there may come a day where Apple will have no choice but to adopt other formats. Right now, Apple is being very isolationist. No other portable will work with iTunes and the iPod won't work with any other service. This will keep iPod sales going for now, but once other music services start comeing out with good business models (i.e. a unified DRM for wma), and the music players start using that, then Apple will have to decide to support it or be left behind. Right now there is no reason to support anything else, but there will come a day.
Remember something: Sales do not make the standard. Microsoft makes the standard. Windows CE spent years at the bottom of the market until it's third revision became Pocket PC. In no time MS went from a 5% share (versus Palm) to a 30% to a 55%. True MS does not yet dominate the PDA world, but Palm doesn't eather, and unlike other companies, MS has the time, money, and resources to 'wait it out.' Unless MS comes into serious financial troubles (look at everything that has happened to it, yet they still exsist, and still dominate), they will be a strong player in the portable music business.
