I hope Apple realizes that this is SSL all over again
I was just thinking that the situation that iTunes is in is very reminescent of Netscape back in 1995. They have a clear format adoption advantage and a much better curve for growth than anybody else. The Pepsi promotion and HP stuff pretty much lock up the market assuming they don't stumble.
So, the WORST thing they could do would be to make the system (iTunes/AAC) interoperable with WMA. This would be analogous to the idiotic tactic that Netscape engaged in by licensing SSL to Microsoft. Without the SSL interoperability, Netscape might have been able to hold on to market share much more aggressively because MS would have had to fight a standards war over electronic commerce instead of just assimilating the Netscape technology.
Similarly, if Apple can lure MS into a standards war, it will cost MS ten times the money to compete based on the adoption vector that iTunes has. Music assets are MUCH harder to switch from than bookmarks. MS will tire of this because the only way they could win is to cheat - i.e. use low level API changes to disrupt iTunes or push Media Player conversion deeper into the OS (i.e. more "product tying" - and they may be fresh out of "get out of jail free" cards.
I think Apple should go ahead and fight this out and then they will be in a position of strength. MS will adapt when they have to. They don't make money from Music - it is a potential market - and they can afford to write off a potential market or two.
Just my 2cents.
I was just thinking that the situation that iTunes is in is very reminescent of Netscape back in 1995. They have a clear format adoption advantage and a much better curve for growth than anybody else. The Pepsi promotion and HP stuff pretty much lock up the market assuming they don't stumble.
So, the WORST thing they could do would be to make the system (iTunes/AAC) interoperable with WMA. This would be analogous to the idiotic tactic that Netscape engaged in by licensing SSL to Microsoft. Without the SSL interoperability, Netscape might have been able to hold on to market share much more aggressively because MS would have had to fight a standards war over electronic commerce instead of just assimilating the Netscape technology.
Similarly, if Apple can lure MS into a standards war, it will cost MS ten times the money to compete based on the adoption vector that iTunes has. Music assets are MUCH harder to switch from than bookmarks. MS will tire of this because the only way they could win is to cheat - i.e. use low level API changes to disrupt iTunes or push Media Player conversion deeper into the OS (i.e. more "product tying" - and they may be fresh out of "get out of jail free" cards.
I think Apple should go ahead and fight this out and then they will be in a position of strength. MS will adapt when they have to. They don't make money from Music - it is a potential market - and they can afford to write off a potential market or two.
Just my 2cents.