i'd say this is more about the death of ogg/vorbis as a viable format for html5. it's was already dead, but had microsoft announced they would support it it would have revived its viability.
flash video, for better or worse, will be with us for as long as IE6 has. in other words way too long. i suspect with the release of IE9 you'll see developers releasing an h.264 video stream with native playback for safari, ie9 and chrome, while serving the same stream through a flash wrapper for everyone else. not ideal, but more elegant than having an h.264, on2 and ogg/vorbis version for each video.
flash video, for better or worse, will be with us for as long as IE6 has. in other words way too long. i suspect with the release of IE9 you'll see developers releasing an h.264 video stream with native playback for safari, ie9 and chrome, while serving the same stream through a flash wrapper for everyone else. not ideal, but more elegant than having an h.264, on2 and ogg/vorbis version for each video.