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i'd say this is more about the death of ogg/vorbis as a viable format for html5. it's was already dead, but had microsoft announced they would support it it would have revived its viability.

flash video, for better or worse, will be with us for as long as IE6 has. in other words way too long. i suspect with the release of IE9 you'll see developers releasing an h.264 video stream with native playback for safari, ie9 and chrome, while serving the same stream through a flash wrapper for everyone else. not ideal, but more elegant than having an h.264, on2 and ogg/vorbis version for each video.
 
Adobe has a real opportunity here

Adobe has a real opportunity here to come out with an application that makes writing HTML5 code a breeze. How about an "Export to HTML5" option in Flash or beef up Dreamweaver.

Adobe isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The fact that IE and Apple are speaking with one voice actually is good news for Adobe because it makes their choice that much easier. If Adobe can create a Flash to iPhone converter certainly it'll be worth their time to create a Flash to HTML5 converter...at least Apple will support that!
 
We all know that video content will move away from Flash.

Flash know this, and it has implemented H.264 support.

But for all the other stuff that Flash does, and HTML5 can't do, or can't do time and cost-efficiently, Flash is here to stay.

No matter what Steve tells you.

The sad part is, H.264 is also proprietary, and they WILL start charging for it in a few years, once they've sold it well to the mass of idiots.

Ya know I heard the same thing about the floppy disk :D Flash will be around for a few years but many will move to the new standard when new upgrades (servers and so on) are purchased, and it's also just a matter of time.
 
…and everybody…sell your Adobe stock NOW!

Flash is only a part of Adobe's business.

Acrobat, Photoshop, Dreamweaver (which could potentially be expanded to replace Flash somewhat?), Illustrator...etc etc.
 
Apple saying it hurts. Microsoft confirming it is a crushing blow. This is probably the first on the dominoes, there may be no stopping it now.
 
"Smokescreen"?

Let's see if Shantanu Narayen thinks this is just "a smokescreen". It's one thing for Steve to argue against Flash in favor of open standards. Because an argument can be debated. (And Narayen debated Steve's claims using fallacious statements.)

But Microsoft simply said they have decided not to support Flash, which leaves no room for argument. Narayen won't be able to use sophistry against that. He'll need to flat out beg.
 
Apple and Microsoft agree?!

Can't wait to hear Adobe's video response lambasting Microsoft's operating system as the cause of the problem. Anyone hear from Red Hat or Ubuntu on their feelings on Flash?

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
 
Poor Apple haters :(

Must be really tough to see that Steve Jobs is not alone in his opinions about Flash. It would appear that both of the "Evil Empires" are in general agreement.
 
Flash is only a part of Adobe's business.
Acrobat, Photoshop, Dreamweaver (which could potentially be expanded to replace Flash somewhat?), Illustrator...etc etc.
Definitely. And I'm starting to wonder how many people here know that Flash wasn't even part of Adobe's portfolio until they purchased Macromedia. Flash may die, and that'll hurt Adobe, but it is far from a knock-out blow to them. They are also in a position to make top-tier development environments for HTML5 interactive content if they so choose. Flash aside, most web creators are very fond of Adobe's software (even if it does bloat a lot).
 
Can't wait to hear Adobe's video response lambasting Microsoft's operating system as the cause of the problem. Anyone hear from Red Hat or Ubuntu on their feelings on Flash?

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

WIN!
 
Microsoft has come a long way in the past two years. Let's just hope the improvement in products and move towards standards keep going.

And hopefully Office 2011 won't be a bloated pig. It would be nice to use Office in OS X and not on Windows in Fusion.
 
But for all the other stuff that Flash does, and HTML5 can't do, or can't do time and cost-efficiently, Flash is here to stay.

Here to stay? No. Here for now. They still need better content-creation tools for HTML5/CSS/Javascript. If Adobe is smart, they'll be the ones who provide them, but if they continue to be stubborn and drag their feet, someone else will. There's little that Flash does that cannot be done by other, more open means. Two years from now when there's 150+ million iPhone OS devices out there that don't run Flash, it's going to be a tough sell to stick with Flash. Furthermore, those are all mobile devices, which is where the action (and advertising money) is nowadays. Do you want to exclude all those devices from seeing your content, or do want to suck it up and re-code with HTML5/CSS/JS? The more Flash-less devices there are out there, the easier that choice becomes. There is a tipping point somewhere where the momentum will be just too great to ignore for most companies, and considering how many major websites have already adjusted in the wake of iPhone and iPad, it won't be that long.
 
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