wow, setting your bars pretty high, huh? 2 years. top 3. bold statement
I agree with that poster.
Key partner - Nokia (#1 volume seller of the world)
Did you see sales of Symbian phones from last year? And that is an outdated looking OS. Nokia may be catered for the cheap, plastic prepaid phones here in the USA but they are still highly popular everywhere else.
Android was still for the niche crowd back in 2009 selling about 6M units. They grew by 10X last year. Once people's contracts are up, I can see moving onto other OSes eventually just for their fickle nature and willing to try something different. Microsoft should try to make an Xbox phone. Their Xbox 360 has been successful for them and the Kinect became one of the fastest selling gadgets in history with over 10M in a few months. In two years it will be Android #1 with iOS and WP7 filling up 2nd and 3rd based in volume sales. Based on profits, Apple still wins. BlackBerry is still niche outside NA and webOS is even more obscure.
iPhone's popularity is like Facebook. Once your auntie and grandma have one now, it became "less cool." And it's an industry based on trends and fickle people.
As for nomore Zune players, who cares? Zune software still lives on with WP7 phones. If you aren't Apple, you don't matter in the mp3/pmp market which has become niche anyway thanks to phones. I was using my Zune software and Sony Media Go just to watch videos on my laptop last night. Less crashes than what iTunes does for me. Software will still live on.
This is my personal roadmap with phones -
2010 - iOS
2011 - Android or BlackBerry OS 7
2012 - Nokia WP7 phone w/ Xenon flash or Samsung w/ SAMOLED
Then rotate and rotate it because I am cool like that OWNING the top 4 best OSes out there! Palm/HP webOS is too much like BB's QNX/BB OS 7 for me to consider it.
iOS has the apps, simplicity, best batt life, and best "all-around" features. Android has the geeky customization, cutting-edge hardware first, and the PlayStation games which will coincide with my Sony PSP2/NGP. BlackBerry has the best multi-tasking and slickest OS thanks to TAT. WP7 is there to implement my Zune and Xbox Live stuff while a OLED screen compliments the look of WP7. Also, Nokia will gives us Xenon flash. It all balances out, baby.