Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[sofila]

I totally agree with you. Except Apple's services in the US there isn't much compelling about Apple's ecosystem to sustain those exorbitant high prices in Europe, India and whatever other country.

Yep. The first thing coming to my mind reading your lines is that we are almost in 2019 and still we don't have a localized Siri for Apple TV in my country (Italy). No HomePod too for example. Ok, sales figures may not be stellar here, but Apple's services are not completely supported and therefore less appealing. Add this to inflated prices...and dinner is ready

 

[Mackinjosh]

For anyone interested, you can get an 8+ refurb right now from Apple for 100 dollars off (599). I bought one last week and it arrived looking and working as if it were brand new.

 

[I7guy]

Smart men don't pay 1000+ for a phone.

Smart men don’t gamble and yet the casinos are packed.

 

[smulji]

I think this is the real crux of the issue. For Apple to sell their services, they need people to buy their products. But if people start to perceive that they can get a better value from competitor's devices, how long will they continue to buy Apple products.

Part of Apple's success comes from their market share. I don't know know if they can go back to just being a niche player like they were with their computers. It's pretty difficult for companies to scale down. Just look at Sears in the U.S. as an example.

It all boils down to whether one thinks the Android or iOS ecosystem offers better value

 

[Mackinjosh]

People have been buying the XS MAX in China. XR is dubbed by some as the poor man's iPhone.

The XS max has been selling horribly in China.

 

[Rogifan]

iPhone XR is fine as a device but Apple stock is waaaaaaay overpriced right now. They need to get their stuff together rather than just inflating prices in order to make quick profits.

Apple stock is way overpriced? Based on what metric a stock analyst would use? Name one.
[doublepost=1542046018][/doublepost]

People have been buying the XS MAX in China. XR is dubbed by some as the poor man's iPhone.

The XS max has been selling horribly in China.

This just proves why all these stories from so-called analysts about sales are stupid. Only Apple knows how well (or not) their products are selling.

 

[AngstyKylo]

It's simply too expensive. All Apple's phones are now. Here in the UK, wages have been stagnant for years; we simply cannot absorb these 20-25% price increases on top of the exchange rate pressure we're seeing due to Brexit.

These aren't even affordable on contract. Carriers are now touting 3-year plans instead of 2; that's an extra year with the same phone just so you can pay the same monthly charge as before. Meanwhile, Huawei are killing it here. Their phones are gradually appearing everywhere; lots of new Nokias and Samsungs too (as the latter are frequently discounted).

The 1080p LCD-based Huawei P20 Lite (which the XR roughly competes with) is just £229 outright. Is the XR better? Maybe. But it's not £520 better. Even going up tiers to the P20 (£399) and the flagship P20 Pro (£629) make the iPhone prices look ludicrous. I just don't see how Apple is going to sustain these prices against such decent competition.

The Nokia Android phones with stock android and excellent build quality are also pretty impressive considering the price. They might not be as usable in 3 years like an iPhone but then you could buy maybe 3 or 4 of them for the same amount.

Also, if you're not buying it outright and paying for it over a 36 month contract you might as well get the top end model rather than the XR.

 

[Aston441]

Xr is overpriced with this outdated screen, but then again, which Apple product is not overpriced this year?

The 2018 iPad is a pretty good value. So is the base

Weird cause I haven't bought an iPhone since the 6s and even I bought an XR. Giving up 3D touch required some thought but it's probably for the best as it had ergonomic issues anyway.

Why not the XS? Not a fan of pentile screens since the first Androids had them and no interest in fashionable stainless steel or pointless dual cameras.

Why didn't you get a 8+?

 

[Mackinjosh]

Somewhere out there Google is wondering how they can make the Pixel "fail" this well. On day one of XR sales, Apple surpassed a full year of Pixel 2/XL sales.

 

[cocky jeremy]

Imagine that. Less people want the cheap crap sold by a brand known for making good, more expensive stuff than those that want the nicer, more expensive version. Shocker.

 

[CarpalMac]

Kuo speaks: Apple stock loses billions

No, one of their suppliers put out a warning, saying they're expecting reduced sales to a major customer {who can only be Apple apparently}...

 

[PeteS1963]

Didn’t we get something similar for the iPhone X?

https://bgr.com/2018/01/29/iphone-x-sales-high-price-supply-cuts/

Now the X is the dogs xxxxxxxx.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

They do. Evidence to the contrary?

Apple sold more iPhones in FY2018 than FY2017 and for higher ASPs.

This is simply a modification made to yet another guess based on made up numbers. He basically said, "Before I thought they'd sell 100M but due to what I've been hearing, I think it's 70M."

It's literally meaningless.

Isn't the larger issue that iPhone suppliers have cut guidance?

 

[Cryates]

Or, and hear me out on this, most would-be-iPhone-buyers purchased one last month.

 

[CarpalMac]

I couldn’t agree more. Getting an iPhone XS Max on contract costs around £70-£90 a month! I refuse to spend so much on devices. If it wasn’t for my Apple Watch and iMessage I would have switched to Android along time ago.

To my mind this is the end of Apple's own "super cycle", drip feeding out the upgrades whilst charging the absolute max for devices which now have had the last big upgrade, the bezel reduction / maxing out the screen size.

Choosing only now to hide their sales figures plus such early reports of reduced orders (it's only November!) adds to my conviction that this is the case. The cash cow is clearly drying up.

So what improvement can be made next year to drive more sales of a £1300+ iPhone? Screen is done, CPU and RAM too, iOS isn't going to change so it is left to the camera and VR (urgh). Unfortunately for Apple, Google is killing it with their camera software (try out night sight) and the P20 Pro is a force as well with hardware, so they have their work cut out and they must know it.

I wouldn't be shocked to see prices drop a little. You can only milk people for so long before they start questioning the value they are getting.

 

[HOTBOBA]

The XS max has been selling horribly in China.

Which is has nothing to do with what I said. For the people who are buying iPhones, they're going with the XS. They've overestimated the demand for the XR.

 

[Mackinjosh]

Which is has nothing to do with what I said. The people who are buying iPhones, they're going with the XS.

The XR is outselling it, which means you're wrong.

 

[nitschi]

It only affects a small, unfortunate portion of the userbase, at least as far as we know. If I had to poorly explain, it’s because OLED screens primarily only use the red and green lights to control brightness, so it flashes the blue light at a high, unnoticeable frequency to give off the impression that the blue lights are of the same brightness as the red and green ones. Normally this isn’t a problem, but in the case of the iPhone X line, it’s abnormally low—something like 220Hz, which on most devices is far into the thousands.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the iPhone handling PWM in a much better way than many competitors, like Samsung?

e.g.: https://blog.elcomsoft.com/2018/10/...sabling-iphone-xs-and-xs-max-display-flicker/

 

[HOTBOBA]

The XR is outselling it, which means you're wrong.

Can you point to the figures please?

 

[miniyou64]

PWM?

“Possibility of Wrong Message”?

“Poke-Weed Mitogen”?

Sorry. Pulse Wave Modulation. Thats how they save battery life and dim the display

 

[Cosmosent]

What we've known is starting to become mainstream knowledge !

As such, we believe Tim Cook & Phil Schiller are now both on the Hot Seat @ AAPL.

We believe AAPL's Board is now actively looking for their next CEO, & for their next VP of Marketing.

Both will come from the OUTSIDE.

The next Shoe to Drop (in the Stock Market) will very-likely be triggered by "a new awareness" of Corp Dept.

Since AAPL has accumulated over $100B USD of Corp Dept ALL under Tim Cook, we believe that will be one of the main catalysts that forces change at AAPL, & that it will happen sooner rather than later, perhaps by year's end.

You heard it here first.

Tim Cook has a Hardware Manufacturing Operations background, & was NEVER a good long-term candidate to run AAPL ... the fact that he has lasted this long is, to us at least, EXTREMELY surprising.

Schiller keeps his job ONLY because he provides protection for Cook ... specifically, the VP of Marketing is usually one of the top candiates to replace a Failed CEO ... NOT in this case, Schiller is NO candidate at ALL !

There isn't a single EE or Software Developer on the AAPL Board ... that fact alone is telling.

 

[miniyou64]

??? Use my XS Max daily, not had a headache yet!

Some people are sensitive. Most aren’t. Estimates are 5-10% of people. Glad you’re able to enjoy the phone. Wish I could

 

[aakshey]

I think Apple understands their customers quite well. However, I also believe that the iPhone XR was never meant to be a big seller in North America or Europe. I think it was targeted at China first and maybe India second.

These two countries have a very large percentage of poor people. But their upper and upper-middle classes in terms of actual people are incredibly huge as compared to other countries.

The XR is priced over USD 1000 in India. In India, the number of smartphones sold at that price point are fewer than 500k in a year. Possibly fewer than 200k in a year.

 

[groadyho]

To my mind this is the end of Apple's own "super cycle", drip feeding out the upgrades whilst charging the absolute max for devices which now have had the last big upgrade, the bezel reduction / maxing out the screen size.

Choosing only now to hide their sales figures plus such early reports of reduced orders (it's only November!) adds to my conviction that this is the case. The cash cow is clearly drying up.

So what improvement can be made next year to drive more sales of a £1300+ iPhone? Screen is done, CPU and RAM too, iOS isn't going to change so it is left to the camera and VR (urgh). Unfortunately for Apple, Google is killing it with their camera software (try out night sight) and the P20 Pro is a force as well with hardware, so they have their work cut out and they must know it.

I wouldn't be shocked to see prices drop a little. You can only milk people for so long before they start questioning the value they are getting.

As someone who is fairly new to Apple products I found it appalling a new iPhone doesn't come with a fast charger or even ear buds. My galaxy came with both. When looking at iPhones this past weekend after buying a dongle for headphones and a fast charger it was another $100 Or so. They need to stop being stingy, they nickle and dime you to death.
Dongle me this dongle me that there goes another few hundred lining the pockets of the fat cats.

 

[StellarVixen]

Oops.

You know what's the worst? This guy is rarely wrong.