All Apple has to do for next year's Xr2 is price it $100 less and add a 1080p LCD screen and 3D Touch back in (besides the usual A chip upgrade) and people will buy again
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Not convinced.
I think the lack of the dual camera is an issue for the XR. Apple wants people to upgrade their 7 Plus but they then lose the optical zoom unless they buy the more expensive Xs or Xs Max. The Xr in some respects is a downgrade.
Life of an analyst:
1. Make an overly positive prediction on Apple stuff
2. Reverse your position with negative prediction after product launch.
3. ...
4. Profit.
I really need to be on this gig.
[doublepost=1544963024][/doublepost]
You cannot actually make a direct comparison with iPhones as iPhones run iOS. In the end, it runs a different ecosystem than Android, so there is no direct comparison there. But between Android an Android phones, yeah, even OnePlus is overpriced.
[doublepost=1544963253][/doublepost]
But 3D touch, maybe. It reminds me of the 2nd gen Macbook Air. When Jobs first announced it, it was actually underwhelming as it was still on Core 2 Duo and didn't even have backlit keyboards (the 1st gen Macbook Air did have backlit keyboard). Come the next revision, bam, Core i5 and backlit keyboard.
Apple just knows how to trickle stuff down.
[doublepost=1544964909][/doublepost]
The XR not "selling as well" is just the indication of the maturing smartphone market. Not just Apple, everybody is experiencing lower performances. Heck, I have the 6S and was thinking of upgrading to the XR, but iOS12 came and the performance of my 6S is still great, so I decided to stick with my 6S.
1. Make an overly positive prediction on Apple stuff
2. Reverse your position with negative prediction after product launch.
3. ...
4. Profit.
I really need to be on this gig.
[doublepost=1544963024][/doublepost]
Xiaomi has shown us your OnePlus is severely overpriced, so there's that.
You cannot actually make a direct comparison with iPhones as iPhones run iOS. In the end, it runs a different ecosystem than Android, so there is no direct comparison there. But between Android an Android phones, yeah, even OnePlus is overpriced.
[doublepost=1544963253][/doublepost]
The 1080p thing is already over discussed, and Apple wouldn't just change it.
But 3D touch, maybe. It reminds me of the 2nd gen Macbook Air. When Jobs first announced it, it was actually underwhelming as it was still on Core 2 Duo and didn't even have backlit keyboards (the 1st gen Macbook Air did have backlit keyboard). Come the next revision, bam, Core i5 and backlit keyboard.
Apple just knows how to trickle stuff down.
[doublepost=1544964909][/doublepost]
I don't think so. The XR has portrait mode as well, and I have yet see people making a big deal about the telephoto lens (outside youtubers and tech reviewers). People just want to point and shoot, and at least the portrait mode is there.
The XR not "selling as well" is just the indication of the maturing smartphone market. Not just Apple, everybody is experiencing lower performances. Heck, I have the 6S and was thinking of upgrading to the XR, but iOS12 came and the performance of my 6S is still great, so I decided to stick with my 6S.
You made up a conclusion to fit your narrative. The price of an iphone 8+ is not comparable to the price of an iphone 7+ because they are different phones. The price of a dozen eggs this year is directly comparable to the price of a dozen eggs last year. That is a fact also. What comes to mine is lies, damn lies and statistics.
Maybe due to your country you have exchange rate that comes into play...
Old tech drops in price and new tech is priced higher. What is this staying the same nonsense.
Hence I used the correct example the X was $999 and the Xs was $999. The Max is $1,099. But there is no comparable phone to a 6.5 oled in apples lineup. Hence no price increase. All companies should adjust their products on a y/y basis when new tech, r and d, is involved. Of course in a capitalistic society I would expect all products to be given away for free. Right?
Your facts are flat out wrong. Tech improves every year and the value of the tech increases and that is reflected in their price. Samsung does this as well with their TVs. The exceptions are companies who decide to take a loss to attract new customers. Apple and Samsung do not do that.
A model T in the late 1920s was about $400. Today a Ford can cost upward of $50,000. Ford has been raising prices, is your argument.
Last edited:
Again, not convinced.
Mixpanels trend metrics reported showed that iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales increased after the Xs, Xs Max and Xr were announced which suggests there were people who didn't like the new phones.
The 8 Plus is only marginally cheaper than the Xr also so hard to imagine people chose the 8 Plus based on price.
it could also suggest there are a group of people who like bezels and who were waiting for the price to drop. And one doesn't know if these are churners or upgraders. And one doesn't know how inaccurate these metrics actually are.
Again, stocks go up and down, usually 50% from high to low in a 52wk period. The stock was $230 a couple months ago. You think much has changed since they reported FANTASTIC Q42018 numbers? A lot of tech stocks are down a lot from highs including AMZN, FB, NFLX, GOOGL, AMD, NVDA, etc. Microsoft had held up well, for whatever reason.
Markets do all kind of crazy things in the short term, but Apple made $60B in profit in 2018, the best year ever...for Apple or any company. Microsoft made about $22B.
When Apple moves more to a services business, the market will begin to value the earnings even more. It now trades at 12X earnings.
MSFT is around 40X.
Any investor in for the long term sees the last 2 months as a buying opportunity.
Who cares what Mixpanel says? Apple told us the Xr was the most popular iPhone in the lineup and they can’t lie...the end.
You have no data telling you customers are buying older models, besides speculative guesses that are never right.
The ASP was $761 in 2018, so people were buying new models then and there is no reason to think they aren’t now.
So what if iPhone XS sold 10M combined ( Including Max ) and 20M with Xr?
Just because Xr was the most popular means nothing. The Data are shown in Stats Counter, China Mobile annual yearly report, Mobile Gaming Report from Tencent, as well as Mixpanel. Are they dead accurate? No, Do they show a similar trend. Yes.
ASP was not part of the discussion, not to mention nearly half of the Xs sold were accounted in last quarter report.
What number will convince you Apple did better than you thought when they report. Would $95B be good enough?
I don’t believe any reporting that’s not from Apple. You can’t. It’s speculative and all extrapolated from smaller sources. It’s been wrong before, even last year when reports were that the X flopped. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Give me a revenue number you’ll admit you were wrong. If they do less than $90B, I’ll say I was wrong and the new lineup was weak.
We have to use actual data to discuss further. If you keep going back to these reports, you’ll say you’re right even if they official Apple revenue is $100B.
We gave specific unit count guess and ASP estimate. Your number includes everything else which again we are only discussing iPhone specifically. Their guidance is 89 - 93B for this Quarter.
As the trend showing at the moment, My guess is first decline in iPhone revenue. As for total, I am hoping they meet their bottom line 89B, but that is assuming Mac, iPad and Services all grow 20%+.
Stopped watching after it was said phone is similar to the 8+. To me that is the same type of thing as saying a Honda Civic is similar to an m5 and if price is a concern get the civic.
I’ll give it other than the 6.5 inch bezelless oled display, chipset, memory, camera, etc both run iOS 12. I guess people have different views on all of this and it goes how subjective and anecdotal these videos are. Find one that agrees with your point of view.
[doublepost=1544974380][/doublepost]
More as the rumors if the trend not the trend itself, which only apple knows the entire picture.
I know the guidance and that they aren’t reporting units, so I just wanted an overall revenue number you’d be impressed by. What was the number you ? I don’t read your predictions.
You are guessing they sell fewer than 77M iPhones and barely hit the lower end $89B guidance?
I think in real use the difference is minimal to some of us. I certainly didn’t get the impression the Max is vastly superior to an 8+ when I used it. It’s a nice phone but so is the 8+ as it’s made by Apple but apart from the aesthetic differences and gestures, it’s a very familiar feel IMO. I’m sure those of you that own the Max have heightened sense to how much better it is, but it’s not something everybody shares or we’d all be being the exact same iPhone.
Apple Music on Android is inferior to Spotify. It doesn't even have gapless playback ffs.
Has other UI issues on Android.
I totally understand. I just got my grandmother an 8 Plus because I know it'll be much easier for her to use that than her smaller iPhone 6. I personally have the XS and it's that's already pushing it for me. I would have gladly traded the "extras" of the XS for a smaller XR.
I'm all for Apple making big phones as long as they consider that there's still a market for smaller devices. Sadly, I think there's not enough of us to move the needle for Apple to consider us.
It’s not about having a heightened sense of how much better it is or in real use the difference is minimal. Because all of that is subjective. Similar to cars many items that get reviewed are subjective.
And I agree ios across the board makes the look and feel similar. (Same thing can be said about windows)
Not everybody may care for oled or a bigger screen or the latest camera “tech”. So it should be apple is offering choices. That’s a good thing.
Apple understands and studied the market extensively. It’s quite clear the larger screen devices are overwhelmingly more popular and a smaller form production line wouldn’t make sense or they’d do it.
It’s not that people wouldn’t buy a 4 inch iPhone...they would. But the question is not even how many. It’s how many would NOT buy any of the phones in the lineup today, including the iPhone 7 and 8 regular sized.
THAT market is quite small, evidently.
The current SE phones are essentially the 4.7 iPhone 7 and 8. Those are small enough.
[doublepost=1544978600][/doublepost]
The only official numbers we have include less than 2 weeks of XS and XS Max sales and no Xr sales. Last report closed September 30.
ASP indicates people are buying more expensive models.
Everything I posted I fact and you keep pointing to nonsense reporting from third parties, which is always wrong.
Cant find a good reason to spend at least 1000 euro for an iphone. I mean i have a 7 plus that works just fine...i love tech products but why the hell spend all that money for a device that does everything exactly the same as the one i have now...for a glass back that shatters even if you have a case on the damn phone? for face id? dont disagree that it might be superior to touch id but 1000 euro for that is a no no... for oled display on an iphone? never watched a movie on that screen size and never will.
Will wait until 2020 and spend my hard earned money on things i love like furniture, accessories for homekit bla bla bla.
Will wait until 2020 and spend my hard earned money on things i love like furniture, accessories for homekit bla bla bla.
Yes. Those are just indicators. Not Fact
I don't see the point of continuing the discussion. I never said mine were Facts. I pointed out having Xr sales better than Xs doesn't mean iPhone is selling well. Those are two different thing.
And it is not always wrong. We just don't know yet. None of the Data are non sense, they may not be accurate in whole picture, but definitely not non sense ( Try telling this to any Data Science people, that would be rude or borderline insulting ) they are indicators, and never did I said those indicator were hard true fact.
Indicators do not necessarily mean the reality of the unit sales of the respective models. It's a point in time snapshot from a third-party that doesn't get to see the entire picture.
As the "x" debacle proved last year, rumors are just that and not to be treated as fact. Good for having discussions about conjectures though.
Indicators that don’t work and have never worked, particularly as Apple has grown and global sales are literally impossible to track accurately. It’s the same story with the endless supply chain worries. It’s just impossible because of the scale and so many unknown factors. Apple has thousands of channels, secondary markets and other factors no one can fully understand. They try, and that’s why we have these articles. They create a lot of clicks, a lot of worry, and in the end, a lot of nonsense.
I use to be a real Apple fanboy, but the last Apple product that I bought was the Iphone 6. For me personally this is where Apple deviated away from the magic Apple was known for. After a year of having the Iphone 6, my phone would randomly shutdown or jump from 40% battery life to around 2% in a space of a few seconds. I searched the forums and found many other people had the same problem - but the thing is Apple ignored this issue at the time and there was no replacement programme during the first 2 years or so of the Iphone 6 prime days. Eventually I had to replace the phone and got a Samsung instead and I have been happy since. Since then Apple released a battery replacement programme way too late and was of no use to people who had to buy a new phone.
In the last few years, Apple have made a catalogue of baffling decisions that damages Apple's image of being a high quality premium brand, to name a few:
1) Cheap charger and base model only 64gb for an iphone costing over a grand.
2) Macbook keyboards need replacing constantly
3) overheating macbooks pros costing over 3 grand.
4) 20% Price bump across the board for all products with nothing extra.
5) Multiple product lines and awful naming - Iphone xs max comes to mind.
6) In some cases the previous generation of Iphones being superior to the more expensive current generation of Iphones (Iphone XR).
In the last few years, Apple have made a catalogue of baffling decisions that damages Apple's image of being a high quality premium brand, to name a few:
1) Cheap charger and base model only 64gb for an iphone costing over a grand.
2) Macbook keyboards need replacing constantly
3) overheating macbooks pros costing over 3 grand.
4) 20% Price bump across the board for all products with nothing extra.
5) Multiple product lines and awful naming - Iphone xs max comes to mind.
6) In some cases the previous generation of Iphones being superior to the more expensive current generation of Iphones (Iphone XR).
That clearly isn't true, but if it is your opinion, you should stick with it.
By that yardstick though, to pick an example, what does the Note 9 at $999 have over the note 8. And the note 8 has over the note 7. (ignoring the battery debacle?)