Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates

[Baymowe335]

Apple need to stop screwing around and price it at $399 starting.There are just too many other good options in the $300 range and even into the $200 range.

They aren’t going to price iPhones at $399...at least not the ones they plan on selling 200M units.

They sold 217M at an ASP of $761 in FY2018. People pay up for iPhones and will continue. No real data says otherwise.

Helpful hint: This article is not data. Neither are the many other speculative articles on this subject. Data comes from the Apple financials, period. No one else knows.
[doublepost=1544823145][/doublepost]

They’re not going to give out numbers, so people will continue to assume whatever helps their narrative.

Not for units, but if they put up $95B, the haters will be silenced...at least for a while.

 

[Michael Goff]

They aren’t going to price iPhones at $399...at least not the ones they plan on selling 200M units.

They sold 217M at an ASP of $761 in FY2018. People pay up for iPhones and will continue. No real data says otherwise.

Helpful hint: This article is not data. Neither are the many other speculative articles on this subject. Data comes from the Apple financials, period. No one else knows.
[doublepost=1544823145][/doublepost]
Not for units, but if they put up $95B, the haters will be silenced...at least for a while.

I doubt it. Even if they put up 95B, the haters will just say “well duh, they raised their prices” or something similar.

 

[citysnaps]

Why would anyone go for LCD when OLED is available?

Well...having an iPhone X for a year now, and being a photographer who's pretty fussy about color, I certainly would. I liked my 6+ display MUCH better.

If my X were not so new, I'd jump on Xr. It's a damn fine phone and camera (important for me), and, has superior battery life.

 

[Mainsail]

Alot of it has to do with people stuck on the resolution of the screen on the Xr not being at least Full HD. Alot of the android offerings are priced similar if not more than the Xr. Yet the Xr will smoke all of them in processor performance and will stand its own with picture quality.

I don't see people raising fuss over the price of the Pixel 3.

https://www.tomsguide.com/us/pixel-3-vs-iphone-xr,review-5838.html

I think you are right. Some people are worked up about the screen resolution. Most reviewers seem to agree that the retina display on the Xr is fine. I doubt that the typical iPhone buyer would notice the difference....but, here on MR.....it's probably a bigger deal.

 

[mi7chy]

Not a good predicament when the iPhone Xr is turning out to be another iPhone 5c and the iPhone Xs is turning into pocket warmer for winter. Cutting corners to increase profit has its consequences.

https://twitter.com/KJHillard84/status/1073065821579198465

 

[Act3]

I think you are right. Some people are worked up about the screen resolution. Most reviewers seem to agree that the retina display on the Xr is fine. I doubt that the typical iPhone buyer would notice the difference....but, here on MR.....it's probably a bigger deal.

I've owned them both, both screens are great and both have their negatives. I stuck with the Xr. The retina display is more than fine in real life usage.
[doublepost=1544824605][/doublepost]

Not a good predicament when the iPhone Xr is turning out to be another iPhone 5c and the iPhone Xs is turning into pocket warmer for winter. Cutting corners to increase profit has its consequences.

Another iPhone 5c? Not quite when it shares the same CPU as the Xs or Max.

 

[nexusrule]

Of course they could. They are making tons of profits on all of their products (XR included). They just did not want to lower their profit margins. There are plenty of big phones that are sold at much lower prices.

Why they should lover the prices? Do you think it's as easy lower the price / increase the sales? The smartphone market is mature, everyone has a phone and mostly people replace them, don't buy their first one. If I have a 1-2-3 years phone that work flawlessly for my needs (probably the situation of the great majority of iPhone owners) why should I replace it? Is as dumb to replace it for $1000 than for $750 if I don't need it. Don't you think there is a connection between devices that last longer, Apple focusing its last iOS version of making these devices last still more, raising the prices because the product has changed and what was a device that worked great for a couple of years, and than started showing its age, now works perfectly even for 4 years? 99% of people are not forum fanatics that upgrade yearly. They are regular consumer than even 3 or 5 years ago replaced their phone not more than every 2 or 3 years. Now they need to replace every 5 or 6. Instead than spending 750 every 2-3 years now they will spende 1000 every 5 to 6. They won't care. Who cares are the 1% people that, for some reason, have the need to buy every new model, even if they don't need it and the upgrade is only modest and incremental. Why a company should care more about this 1% than the 99%?

 

[Act3]

I have to wonder how the sales would be had the Xr been released the same day as the Xs/Max. I wonder how many of those upgraders who could not wait would have went with the Xr.

 

[nexusrule]

Foxconn manufactures products for many companies, not just Apple. That's what Wikipedia says:

Foxconn manufactures electronic products for major American, Canadian, Chinese, Finnish and Japanese companies. Notable products manufactured by Foxconn include the BlackBerry,[8] iPad,[9] iPhone, iPod,[10] Kindle,[11] Nintendo 3DS, Nokia devices, Xiaomi devices, PlayStation 3, PlayStation 4, Wii U, Xbox 360, Xbox One[12], and the TR4 CPUsocket on some motherboards. As of 2012, Foxconn factories manufactured an estimated 40% of all consumer electronics sold worldwide.

Their profits may or may not reflect Apple fortunes.

Was there some new hit product from one of these other manufacturers that justify the increase exactly at the time of iPhone launch? Have you asked that to yourself before pasting this meme?

 

[Baymowe335]

They’re not going to give out numbers, so people will continue to assume whatever helps their narrative.

I know, but the revenue numbers will still give us a good idea.
[doublepost=1544825392][/doublepost]

I doubt it. Even if they put up 95B, the haters will just say “well duh, they raised their prices” or something similar.

True, but $95B will be wonderful. They can hate all they want.

 

[GuruZac]

I have to wonder how the sales would be had the Xr been released the same day as the Xs/Max. I wonder how many of those upgraders who could not wait would have went with the Xr.

I'm willing to bet the XR would have been the better seller from the start, if nothing else, it is much less expensive. But, it is essentially 95% of an XS too. It is a stellar phone in basically every single metric. Is it the best at anything? Other than performance (thanks to using the same guts other than RAM), no, although the camera is on par with basically every flagship out there including the XS/XS Max and offers basically every feature every flagship offers minus an OLED display.

 

[I7guy]

Not a good predicament when the iPhone Xr is turning out to be another iPhone 5c and the iPhone Xs is turning into pocket warmer for winter. Cutting corners to increase profit has its consequences.

https://twitter.com/KJHillard84/status/1073065821579198465

At least these phones can be brought on an aircraft unlike the note 7.

 

[justperry]

Snip ....They have to go under screen fingerprint and work out how to hide the camera. /Snip

It will come as soon as Microled will be ripe for mass production, the reason is that most of the space is empty space, don't know the exact numbers but think I read somewhere it's 1% misruled or less and 99+% free space, so lots of space for cameras and other sensors behind the display.

 

[Shiro_Simba]

I can see why this is happening with Apple having two other better options .

The demand for the better options is also down.

It's not the quality of the product offered. It's the price that is the issue.
[doublepost=1544826493][/doublepost]

At least these phones can be brought on an aircraft unlike the note 7.

Agreed. Though the note 7 does not exist as a product anymore.

 

[aksunder]

The price is not the only factor. Many people simply don't want to carry a flat-screen television in their front pocket.

View attachment 810718

Totally agree. I had a 7 for a long time. Just bought the XS and I hate it! Only good thing is that it's faster - but everything else is actually worse. I can't believe I spent $1,500 on this piece of garbage. If I saw Tim Cook I'd tell him I'd pay more for a smaller phone with touch id. The people running this company have run out of ideas.

 

[satchmo]

The price is not the only factor. Many people simply don't want to carry a flat-screen television in their front pocket.

View attachment 810718

Agreed. Imagine that iPhone 5 with an edge to edge display.
Gone are the days of Think Different.

 

[LovingTeddy]

At least these phones can be brought on an aircraft unlike the note 7.

Are we still poking fun with note 7? There are iPhone catch on fire. Oh, wait, you have to hold phone certain way to get reception? Or phone bend on the pocket?

Note 7 is getting old. Seriously.

 

[pmore]

Your 6s plus cost the same $749 as the XR, when it was released, only it came with 16GB storage instead of 64GB. That's some "insane price increase", eh?

But the 6s had latest tech. XR doesn't. It comes with a LCD display in 2018.

 

[Mainsail]

I love some of these posts. "The Xr should be $399". "Apple is just being greedy." "The Xr should have an OLED display".

It's like we live in a world with no economic constraints; no production or tooling constraints, no supply chain constraints, no labor market constraints, no investor return/profit targets.....just make the same top end phones with the same optimized software for half the price.

Apple is pursuing profit maximization based on their cost structure, estimated consumer demand, and target margins. Folks can call it greed, but it's just capitalism. Econ 101. Every company does this. No one on this form has a clue about Apple's detailed cost structure, so we are in no position to determine what price Apple should sell a product to optimize profits. All we can do is decide if the product is a good value for our needs.

I recently bought an Xr. Apple gave me $200 for my 3 year old 6s, which was about $100 higher for the holidays. I know I could have gotten more on Craigs List, but I don't want nor need to deal with the hassle. So, I paid $550 out of pocket. I'll keep it for 3 years....no problem. That's $15 per month. If it is reliable like my other iPhones, then I will get to enjoy the Apple ecosystem on a much more powerful device with a much larger screen for 3 more years at the cost of about one large latte per week. Given everything I do on my phone, it seems like a pretty good value to me.

 

[benlukes]

Decrease the price (and/or the size) and sales will increase.

And don't make us trade in a phone.

They should add a headphone jack while they are at it.

 

[AustinIllini]

Any other company in the world would wish they would ship that number. But sure, panic.

I don't think Google sold that many Pixel 2s in an entire year.
[doublepost=1544829859][/doublepost]

Decrease the price (and/or the size) and sales will increase.

And don't make us trade in a phone.

While that would definitely help if the phone were $400 in terms of sale, it's still just a commodity in a saturated market.

 

[I7guy]

Are we still poking fun with note 7? There are iPhone catch on fire. Oh, wait, you have to hold phone certain way to get reception? Or phone bend on the pocket?

Note 7 is getting old. Seriously.

The only reason this was brought up was the person quoted brought up the same topic as if to imply that iphone batteries are the only ones that catch fire, at least that is my interpretation.

And yes this lithium battery fire ping-pong is seriously getting old.

 

[Michael Goff]

I don't think Google sold that many Pixel 2s in an entire year.
[doublepost=1544829859][/doublepost]
While that would definitely help if the phone were $400 in terms of sale, it's still just a commodity in a saturated market.

Estimates are about 3m Pixels shipped in 2017, I think.

 

[Michael Scrip]

I don't think Google sold that many Pixel 2s in an entire year.

Google sold 4 million Pixels in 2017... an entire year.

Apple can sell that many iPhones in 5 days.

Yeah... it's a different league...

 

[BrooksA]

So what about the competition prices? You stated Apple has become to ‘Greedy.’ Samsung and Google have comparable prices to Apple’s, are they considered greedy too? Everyone wants to point the finger at Apple, but fails to mention the competition who also has inflated prices for their smart phones in addition.

Comparable? In the UK the Google flagship phone is £639 at the moment. XS is £999.