As an APPL shareholder, I would be really nervous about the release of an iPhone. It seems like the type of product that you'd have to throw an enormous amount of money into to compete. A genuine gamble. Unless they have a product that is undeniably superior to everything else out there, I'd rather not gamble all those marketing and development dollars.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
More Apple iPhone Evidence? 4th Quarter 2006?
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
DPazdanISU
macrumors regular
I dont think apple will come out with an iPhone that you use with current cell phone providers. There was an article recently with some investment firm stating that they believed the iphone would be wifi enabled. This makes more sense for Apple considering their goal is to enhance your digital computer lifestyle and not the other way around. This is also why Apple has not come out with a Tivo killer. A wifi enabled iPhone makes sense b/c it would be an affordable subscription/if there even is one?? I would definately get one if it is a wifi enabled iPhone, Vonage and a few others are just starting to get popular and Apple can easily dominate in this market as well
fixyourthinking
macrumors 6502a
Apple needs to approach this like the MP3 market when they released the iPod.
Apple should make this for ONLY Mac users at first ... possibly bringing new people just for the purpose of the phone.
The ONLY way this could be a cool phone if it has bluetooth AND a front row remote built in + a 4 or 5 megapixel camera.
It's not just time for Apple to have a phone ... but a good camera again.
Apple should make this for ONLY Mac users at first ... possibly bringing new people just for the purpose of the phone.
The ONLY way this could be a cool phone if it has bluetooth AND a front row remote built in + a 4 or 5 megapixel camera.
It's not just time for Apple to have a phone ... but a good camera again.
Not a great time to launch
Right now, the mobile industry's in a state of change. European GSM networks are having UMTS (3GSM, "W-CDMA") networks added to them, the US GSM networks plan to replace their networks completely with UMTS (the other widely used standard in the US, IS-95 (CDMA2000, "CDMA"), isn't really open in the same way as GSM/UMTS is/are. An IS-95 customer can't just buy a phone compatable with the network and activate it themselves without the phone company's involvement and permission. If Apple used that, they'd lock themselves out of the rest of the world, and reduce their markets in the US to only those phone companies that actively cooperate with them.)
There are some hold-ups however. The main one is that the way UMTS was originally specified relied upon the fact countries had generally agreed to make available certain spectrum for 3G. It was assumed it would run in addition to existing GSM networks, rather than on top of them. In the US, the FCC has (for largely legitimate reasons) taken its time getting the relevent bands cleared. The result is that Cingular, the major GSM network in the US that's moving to UMTS right now, is having to overlay UMTS onto its existing network, using non-standard frequencies, which will probably change once the FCC clears spectrum for 3G. But, hey, even that's not clear: once the FCC does this, it will probably want to auction the new bandwidth, which will mean more 3G operators.
To work around the difficulties getting UMTS implemented, GSM has been enhanced with a system called EDGE which implements somewhat faster data rates and slightly more capacity. Both T-Mobile and Cingular have widely implemented it, but the rates aren't that fantastic, comparable, perhaps, to ISDN, and that's when the network's not congested.
It's kind of convoluted, and the market itself is a little difficult to judge while this is going on. Apple can just produce a GSM EDGE phone, but it would be slow (especially if the aim is to provide downloads from the iTMS) and, to much of the world, look outdated. A Sprint/Verizon IS-95 hook-up would lock themselves (and their customers) out of the rest of the world. A UMTS phone would lock themselves out of most of the US right now.
Oh, and one other thing, margins on cellphones are razor thin. There's too much competition in the area. And it's very difficult to persuade people to buy unsubsidized phones in most countries, some parts of Europe excepted.
If I were Apple, I'd wait.
If I were Apple and couldn't wait (worrying that MP3 playing cellphones with hard drives were about to hit the mass market), I'd go down the MVNO route, at least in the US, probably with Cingular. I would go with UMTS, because (a) it's backward compatable with GSM and any phone built today that uses that standard will need minor tweaks to stay up to date and (b) Most UMTS operators are likely to be keen to see a return on its UMTS investment and, while they'll want to see a large amount of per-customer income, the traffic charges can be small given the increased capacity. In the US, I'd sell only in Cingular UMTS markets, and keep the device and service low profile nationally until Cingular has rolled out their UMTS network to enough of the country.
To protect Apple's reputation for simplicity, I'd go for a pre-paid service model, preferably using something that hasn't been used before (in the US, at least.) Maybe $500 for the device (iPod nano 4Gig + phone) and unlimited domestic voice/message usage for a year? $2 per song downloaded (including data traffic charges)? With a model like that, it wouldn't be necessary to lock the phone, which in turn means that people who would prefer to use the phone with a different carrier can still buy it.
All in all, I don't actually buy the rumour at this point. It's an awful time to launch. Regular cellular service, as people are used to, is generally priced in an entirely opposite way to any of Apple's regular businesses (subsidized equipment that sells usage charges, rather than locked usage selling hardware), and as such the above model, which I rather like, would represent a large gamble in terms of customer acceptance and yet is pretty much the only way Apple could go from here without building a massive new business that operates entirely unlike the rest of Apple. And the technology to build it upon hasn't been rolled out and will be significantly tweaked over the next few years in ways that aren't completely predictable.
For now, I vote "No" on this happening, at least in 2006. Maybe late in 2007.
Right now, the mobile industry's in a state of change. European GSM networks are having UMTS (3GSM, "W-CDMA") networks added to them, the US GSM networks plan to replace their networks completely with UMTS (the other widely used standard in the US, IS-95 (CDMA2000, "CDMA"), isn't really open in the same way as GSM/UMTS is/are. An IS-95 customer can't just buy a phone compatable with the network and activate it themselves without the phone company's involvement and permission. If Apple used that, they'd lock themselves out of the rest of the world, and reduce their markets in the US to only those phone companies that actively cooperate with them.)
There are some hold-ups however. The main one is that the way UMTS was originally specified relied upon the fact countries had generally agreed to make available certain spectrum for 3G. It was assumed it would run in addition to existing GSM networks, rather than on top of them. In the US, the FCC has (for largely legitimate reasons) taken its time getting the relevent bands cleared. The result is that Cingular, the major GSM network in the US that's moving to UMTS right now, is having to overlay UMTS onto its existing network, using non-standard frequencies, which will probably change once the FCC clears spectrum for 3G. But, hey, even that's not clear: once the FCC does this, it will probably want to auction the new bandwidth, which will mean more 3G operators.
To work around the difficulties getting UMTS implemented, GSM has been enhanced with a system called EDGE which implements somewhat faster data rates and slightly more capacity. Both T-Mobile and Cingular have widely implemented it, but the rates aren't that fantastic, comparable, perhaps, to ISDN, and that's when the network's not congested.
It's kind of convoluted, and the market itself is a little difficult to judge while this is going on. Apple can just produce a GSM EDGE phone, but it would be slow (especially if the aim is to provide downloads from the iTMS) and, to much of the world, look outdated. A Sprint/Verizon IS-95 hook-up would lock themselves (and their customers) out of the rest of the world. A UMTS phone would lock themselves out of most of the US right now.
Oh, and one other thing, margins on cellphones are razor thin. There's too much competition in the area. And it's very difficult to persuade people to buy unsubsidized phones in most countries, some parts of Europe excepted.
If I were Apple, I'd wait.
If I were Apple and couldn't wait (worrying that MP3 playing cellphones with hard drives were about to hit the mass market), I'd go down the MVNO route, at least in the US, probably with Cingular. I would go with UMTS, because (a) it's backward compatable with GSM and any phone built today that uses that standard will need minor tweaks to stay up to date and (b) Most UMTS operators are likely to be keen to see a return on its UMTS investment and, while they'll want to see a large amount of per-customer income, the traffic charges can be small given the increased capacity. In the US, I'd sell only in Cingular UMTS markets, and keep the device and service low profile nationally until Cingular has rolled out their UMTS network to enough of the country.
To protect Apple's reputation for simplicity, I'd go for a pre-paid service model, preferably using something that hasn't been used before (in the US, at least.) Maybe $500 for the device (iPod nano 4Gig + phone) and unlimited domestic voice/message usage for a year? $2 per song downloaded (including data traffic charges)? With a model like that, it wouldn't be necessary to lock the phone, which in turn means that people who would prefer to use the phone with a different carrier can still buy it.
All in all, I don't actually buy the rumour at this point. It's an awful time to launch. Regular cellular service, as people are used to, is generally priced in an entirely opposite way to any of Apple's regular businesses (subsidized equipment that sells usage charges, rather than locked usage selling hardware), and as such the above model, which I rather like, would represent a large gamble in terms of customer acceptance and yet is pretty much the only way Apple could go from here without building a massive new business that operates entirely unlike the rest of Apple. And the technology to build it upon hasn't been rolled out and will be significantly tweaked over the next few years in ways that aren't completely predictable.
For now, I vote "No" on this happening, at least in 2006. Maybe late in 2007.
I think I'll stack this rumor in the column with the 42" & 52" Apple Plasma TVs...
Sounds like a nice idea, I'd love to have one, doesn't stretch the imagination too much to be outrageous...
but
It's a less than innovative product, with slim to no profit margins, in a sector of consumer electronics where Apple has never played ball...
Sounds like a nice idea, I'd love to have one, doesn't stretch the imagination too much to be outrageous...
but
It's a less than innovative product, with slim to no profit margins, in a sector of consumer electronics where Apple has never played ball...
adamcz said:
In other words, it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN...rest assured.
An iPhone is not feasible for Apple, unless they (as I said above) come up with something TOTALLY mindblowing...but these things don't happen in the mobile market...Japan has the edge on this matter, and even then it doesn't have anything spectacular...just AIO gadgets, monstrosities like the Blackberry or real-time/wireless payment facilities...nothing else.
Apple will NOT join this stupid fray.
I used to think the notion of an iPhone was a very bad idea, but after thinking it through, I think it may actually be a good idea if done correctly.
Reasons:
#1 Seemless integration with iCal/AddressBook & iTunes.
#2 Easy and quick to use - could save the lives of people that otherwise would have been killed by the idiots that have to do texting and scrolling menus on their cellphones while speeding through rush hour traffic.
#3 Catch up on the latest episode of Lost while listening to your mother-in-law babble on-and-on...
Features I'd like to see:
#1 Good Battery life while talking
#2 Wifi and a mobile Skype client and mini Safari browser, and mini iChat Client.
#3 Bluetooth with A2DP Support for Bluetooth wireless "music headphones", not just the microphone-earpiece headsets.
#4 Basic PDA functionality...Calendar
#5 Sync with .Mac over the air. (I would actually buy .Mac if I could do that)
#6 Ability to add on accessories like the iPod, such as a mini keyboard for text entry (Blackberry like)
#7 Decent integrated Camera with good video capabilities.
#8 Decent Storage capacity. Preferably 8GB+ Flash memory.
#9 Charging/Sync Dock
Price : $349
Okay, I'm dreaming. But I would buy one in a second if they released that.
Reasons:
#1 Seemless integration with iCal/AddressBook & iTunes.
#2 Easy and quick to use - could save the lives of people that otherwise would have been killed by the idiots that have to do texting and scrolling menus on their cellphones while speeding through rush hour traffic.
#3 Catch up on the latest episode of Lost while listening to your mother-in-law babble on-and-on...
Features I'd like to see:
#1 Good Battery life while talking
#2 Wifi and a mobile Skype client and mini Safari browser, and mini iChat Client.
#3 Bluetooth with A2DP Support for Bluetooth wireless "music headphones", not just the microphone-earpiece headsets.
#4 Basic PDA functionality...Calendar
#5 Sync with .Mac over the air. (I would actually buy .Mac if I could do that)
#6 Ability to add on accessories like the iPod, such as a mini keyboard for text entry (Blackberry like)
#7 Decent integrated Camera with good video capabilities.
#8 Decent Storage capacity. Preferably 8GB+ Flash memory.
#9 Charging/Sync Dock
Price : $349
Okay, I'm dreaming. But I would buy one in a second if they released that.
AtHomeBoy_2000
macrumors 6502a
hmmm... I am a totally technology geek and I really want to understand what you just said, but all I read was "blah. blah, blah, cell phone, network, blah, blah." lolpeharri said:
AtHomeBoy_2000 said:
Thanks for the feedback. I am totally a poster to these forums, and I really wanted to understand what you had problems with, but all I read was "blah. blah, blah, blah, blah , blah, blah."
Dont be Sony
Lets just hope Apple doesnt become Sony. Lots and lots of arms and legs all flailing (and failing). I mean more Apple branded devices are good, but Apple has always been quality over quantity (well until the 'pod took off), but with 'pod hi-fi, rumors of another ipod coming out and some sort of phone thing, not to mention as of yet unheard rumors for the end of the month, mac with remotes.... etc etc Apple may wish to solidify some of their products before leaping off into new waters (maybe finish the transition to Intel??) I would hate to see them become all arms and legs working on different project with no cohesive theme other than the branded label. Heaven knows we'd all hate for iTunes to become SonicStage.
Lets just hope Apple doesnt become Sony. Lots and lots of arms and legs all flailing (and failing). I mean more Apple branded devices are good, but Apple has always been quality over quantity (well until the 'pod took off), but with 'pod hi-fi, rumors of another ipod coming out and some sort of phone thing, not to mention as of yet unheard rumors for the end of the month, mac with remotes.... etc etc Apple may wish to solidify some of their products before leaping off into new waters (maybe finish the transition to Intel??) I would hate to see them become all arms and legs working on different project with no cohesive theme other than the branded label. Heaven knows we'd all hate for iTunes to become SonicStage.
iPie
macrumors regular
peharri said:
Peharri,
What about just launching the phone in Europe to compete head to head with the top of the line Nokia, Ericsson etc? and then later launch in the US there is (finally) some order in chaos.
There is a pretty big market for fancy cell phones in Europe; everybody changes once a year or so (although I still have a 3 year old phone...) and many cell phone purchases are made by companies.
Add 'iPod' capabilities and it's not such a stretch to imagine that Apple could command a premium price AND significant consumer market share. Add wi-fi and some storage space and perhaps they could drive a wedge into the corporate world (wireless USB key?).
No problems with UMTS and GSM compatibility either.
revmac said:
That is a good question.... One might wonder instead, who would want to do service for Apple. Verizon might, as they are staring down the 'Bell resurgence, but would they want to throw time and money on a gamble? Sprint/Nextel have a solid core business, I havent read about them wishing to expand into new markets recently. Cingular is also in the same boat. AT&T might look to partner with Apple and create a new network based around Apple phones, but I feel they would look for a more proven phone provider than a yet-unnamed Apple (sudo-myth).
So as a long winded answer to your question, in the current US Market, I dont see any of the major players as wanting to take a risk in an Apple only phone, but hey thats me.
peharri said:
Actually for a new comer the best time to enter is exactly when the industry is in a state of change. When the big players have taken their market shares it is way more difficult for a new player to enter the game.
Although I think that the US point of view blurs the big picture for you, world wide, the top phone providers for 3g are already providing a large variety of phones and it will be difficult to stand out with one phone, Apple would need a whole product line (at least 4-5 phones even if they limited their offering to the high end of the market) and refresh the line at four times a year.
DPazdanISU said:
I'm listening. Wi-Fi phone with ever increasing coverage day by day. Sounds very interesting!
There is no reason why we can't have free phone calls (at least as close to free w/ a purchase of hardware). I think the day will come in the near future when we will have this option. The next standard of Wi-Fi i.e. Wi-Max will certainly be interest.
Give the finger to Verizon, Cingular or anyone of the pimp cellular provider the finger for dancing upon your paycheck!!
Cinch
I agree that would work, though it would be pretty unusual for Apple to work this way, they're generally very Americentric. There are quite a few countries in Europe where the sale of carrier subsidized phones is banned, and that would work in Apple's favour too, if they just want to sell a phone.iPie said:
I don't know if that's all they want to do, and I don't know if the market over there is large enough to support it. How is iTunes working out over in Europe anyway? Does pretty much every country have a store, or just the big ones and a handful of little ones? I can't see them launching an iPod phone into a country without an iTMS.
Gasu E.
macrumors 603
maestro55 said:
Are people so wild about camera features. I always opt to NOT get the camera and so does every member of my family... plus my gym and (as I understand it) other gyms frown on cameras... which means I would have to limit my use.
The reason to integrate a phone into the iPod is to reduce the demand for "pocket space". Lots of people want or need both and iPod and phone and it is part of their daily life. Camera just seems like creeping featurism. I guess there would be people who would want a camera thrown in but I would hope that Apple would first offer something a bit simpler.
deadturtle said:
Yes! I'm so sick of mobile carriers. Instead of innovating and competing with one another, they rather hire lawyers/lobbists to live on 14th Street and massage our lawyer makers' back (yes, our law makers). I'm seriously considering Vonage, but instead of stuck in a 2 year deal with the mother of all pimps, Verizon.
god, i'm venomous today😀
Cinch
iPie
macrumors regular
peharri said:
I believe that Europe is still quite far ahead of the US with regards to mobile phones. Any phone you buy will function with all providers.
As far as iTMS is concerned, you can easily check on the Apple Web Site. I am pretty sure that there is an iTMS store in every country (in the EU they all purchase from Luxembourg I believe).
The Europeans love fancy new mobile phones; everybody also seems to have an iPod (except me....) or wants to buy one (me).
If they can give the iPhone some novel features (iPod, wi-fi) and keep the price 'reasonable' I am sure that they will take significant Market Share.
Apple marketing strategies in Europe, in the past, have been so-so though; so I am not betting on anything too intelligent by design 😱
sjo said:
Not really what I meant. In terms of people entering the market, it's already saturated. All the big players are already there. The issue is that the standards are in a flux and still being worked upon. As a basic example:
Cingular is the major practical 3G supplier in the US. (EV-DO operators are using a cheap hack at the moment, but their standard is limited.) They've rolled out to a handful of markets, namely some major cities. We're not even talking about all major cities - Boston's covered, but three hours away, Manhattan isn't. They're already talking about upgrading their UMTS network from WCDMA to an improved variant called HSDPA. In the mean time, nobody knows what T-Mobile's doing, they actually announced a "We're just going to sit and wait" policy a few months ago.
Now, if you're building phones, that's not really a good environment to be in unless you already have a large market. Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola have their fingers in so many pies and have such a large advantage in terms of being able to reuse existing technologies in a range of forms, that this isn't much of a problem for them. In Apple's case, an iPhone - a single product - would have a lot of difficulty getting off the ground, would require substantial negotiations with a whole range of companies they don't work with today, and could be obsolete very quickly.
mozmac
macrumors 6502
If you want the best phone/iPod, you need to take the best computer maker and put them with the best cell phone maker.
Apple needs to team up with Nokia. No more of this Motorola BS. They're phones have gotten poor reviews ever since they first started making them. If you don't believe me, just read around on Cnet and Amazon. Nokia has far better customer reviews, wihch are what really count.
An Apple/Nokia phone....I want one.
Apple needs to team up with Nokia. No more of this Motorola BS. They're phones have gotten poor reviews ever since they first started making them. If you don't believe me, just read around on Cnet and Amazon. Nokia has far better customer reviews, wihch are what really count.
An Apple/Nokia phone....I want one.
MrCrowbar
macrumors 68020
I'm waiting for an apple phone (iPhone sounds so childich to me... why not iTalk, iCell when you're at it?) for years. Imagine an iPod with added phone feature, text messaging and a calendar (where you can type things in). I've refused to spend a couple of hundred bucks for a music player so far, I always said I'd buy an iPod when I can use it for phone calls. And if my USB dongle did not fry this week, I wouldn't have bought a shuffle.
Personally, I'd love seeing the upcoming full screen iPod with a phone feature. I'm not sure however if having a UMTS transciever next to a HDD is a good idea though... maybe flash memory?
feMac 4ever!
Personally, I'd love seeing the upcoming full screen iPod with a phone feature. I'm not sure however if having a UMTS transciever next to a HDD is a good idea though... maybe flash memory?
feMac 4ever!
runninmac said:
So? In many places, Cingular's network is better than Verizon. Verizon just has the brainwashing done to have you think they have a better network.