These two quotes from the article tell me that most of the iPhone 6 and 6S sales are conquest sales from Andriod, or sales to customers that have never had a smart phone before. As time goes on, and iPhones get more capable, I think the upgrade cycle will get longer and iPhone sales will level off. Maybe we're already seeing evidence of that in the last month?
Took until the 2nd page to find a comment that made the lightbulb go off in my head. Glad I wasn't the only one to be puzzled by the numbers, and a little ashamed I wasn't reading into them enough. But
@toddzrx you answered it. Cook's comment was ONLY for "older-generation iPhone users", I just totally space over that not taking into account Android switchers to the current larger screens. Still some math to be done though, it seems. Wouldn't that then imply that the Android switchers number be the difference between 2/3 times the 4" and smaller totals and the new 6/6+/6s/6s+ numbers?
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Oddly enough, women are the ones I –most– see getting the +-sized screens. Mainly because many already carry a huge purse. I'm talking maybe like 4-to-1 or more to the men I know who have gotten the +. In fact, I think I only know (know, versus "someone on Twitter said") of two guys with a +. So it is likely even much greater than that.
Also, I've been seeing a LOT of +-sized devices in commercial environments, though not as many as I'd like. This was something I had been pushing for back before the iPad mini…except I wanted a 6" iPad with a 4:3 aspect ratio and a cellular chipset where the phone worked. I think the 9:16 aspect ratio is just not a great fit for commercial use, it is too narrow. ("Commercial use" think waitstaff, FedEx drivers, warehouse workers, truck drivers, etc.) Apple OEM'd the Newton out to Symbol Technologies and it was actually a TREMENDOUS success; in fact Newton lived past its Apple life commercially for several years in that tech. That Apple has eschewed that market puzzles me. 9:16/16:9 is too narrow when oriented vertically, and too short when horizontal for data-dense commercial apps. The iPad mini is too big, and when equipped with a cellchip you still can't use the phone. There is definitely a niche to be filled. Which goes to my deeper point: Apple should be using its superior supply-chain "intellect" to broaden their offerings. This whole argument over 4" or 5.5" would be moot if Apple would just sell ANYTHING a user wants. (OK, within reason. Certainly I don't advocate for the Samsung model, with 20+ handsets and sizes.) In Apple's case, the more likely they are to provide a device with a form-factor that is PERFECT for the customer's use case, the better chance they have of increasing iOS marketshare. Like with Windows, the argument can no longer be Apple vs Samsung…it is truly iOS vs Android. And right now, with iPhone sales leveling and iPad sales plummeting, Android is winning that. Once Apple goes below 20% global marketshare, we will very much be right back into the WinXP vs Mac scenario, developer/software-wise. Apple cannibalizing itself, between models, just is NOT a problem as long as they GROW market share. Right now, all signs point to the + models cannibalizing iPad minis, but without the necessary commensurate marketshare increase.