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If Apple doesn't release Apple TV & HomePod Mini this year, and if it can get next generation Siri ready by March, it might well make sense for all that stuff to be combined into a focussed March event where Apple announces a big push into the smart home market - updated HomePod Mini and new HomePod with a display both running updated Siri, new Apple TV with enough power to handle a lot of the AI load locally, and maybe some other new stuff like security cameras and/or a doorbell.

That does leave the question about what is going on with the falling stock levels in a few places. Would Apple really be willing to have a gap in HomePod sales for 4 months? Maybe sales of the current model are low enough right now that it doesn't care in the bigger picture of a major push into the smart home market next year. Also, the scarcity of current generation HPM isn't universal. I just looked them up on Apple's UK web site and, while my local Apple Store can't offer me any for pickup today, all colours are available for in-store pickup or home delivery tomorrow. Perhaps this is just a temporary supply glitch and at least some more will be going into the retail channel between now and early next year.
 
I'm guessing - I believe the hardware is probably ready - which is why you are seeing frequent imminent rumours ( that are often based on factory intel) , but the software is not. Reminds me of the AirTag delays where it was clear the hardware was manufactured way before they actually shipped. So I agree it is probably going to be a 1st Quarter 2026 release.
 
At this point, everything is pure guessing. Apple could release new hardware any day now, or they could also wait until spring. The only strange thing is that the stock at resellers is going low, and I don't think that Apple wants that to be through the holidays, so either a new model is really coming out in the next days or we should see some restock.
 
I think Apple is done for the year.

The Nov 1st to Jan 31st is a terrible time to release new products, as many retailers extend their return periods during the holiday season. This is a better time for Apple and retailers to clear out existing inventory, and then Apple can announce new products after the holiday return period has ended.
 
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