New iPads or Not? iPad Revenue Predicted to Sharply Drop in Q4 2023

[picpicmac]

Put MacOS as an option onto the new iPads.

Maybe make the iPad more like the MacBook

And carve away at their own MacBook sales.

It's not, and never has been, a difficult thing, technically, for these devices to run MacOS. iPadOS like iOS is built off of the bones of the same operating system as MacOS.

And if you've noticed MacOS lately, Apple has been inching Mac users to interacting with their Macs more like interacting with iOS and iPadOS, what with trying to get people to launch apps via icons and never looking at the file system in a Finder window.

 

[Stiksi]

Maybe make iPadOS better for various professionals rather than limited to creativity? Or make it work like macOS? iPad sitting in Between iPhone and Mac, not quite Mac but bulkier than iPhone while doing 90% of things iPhone can do, makes it a harder sale.

I went for a Surface Pro. Apart from it being astonishingly bad at content consumption, I can get work done on it. Drawing, photo and video editing, animation, it’s all doable with ALL the features, not just a 20% subset that made it into the iPadified version. And I like Microsoft’s stylus better than the Apple pencil.

Drawbacks are a smaller display, worse colour accuracy and the idiosyncracies of Windows. But usually problems are solvable with a lot of forum diving unlike with an iPad, with which if it doesn’t do what you want, there’s usually no way around it.

 

[krakman]

I bought a 2nd gen 12.9 iPad PRO and never found much use for it.

I will never buy an iPad again. There is no point. It’s like an iPod- it had its place in time but now its use is limited.

I intend to trade it in for a new MBP

If only it had video input it would be the best portable monitor on the planet, but alas, no.

 

[Joe Dohn]

If your display's glass isn't shattered then it's a cheap battery swap that Apple can do for you for a fee.

But if the glass is shattered like mine then pay for the very expensive screen.

Screen replacement cost is more than a $249 2021 iPad 10.2" Wi-Fi 64GB

As you can see in the answer, they don't really replace the battery. The replace the whole device. And at least here (I don't like in the US), the replacing costs sometimes MORE than I would spend buying a new iPad.

 

[Joe Dohn]

I bought a 2nd gen 12.9 iPad PRO and never found much use for it.

I will never buy an iPad again. There is no point. It’s like an iPod- it had its place in time but now its use is limited.

I intend to trade it in for a new MBP

If only it had video input it would be the best portable monitor on the planet, but alas, no.

The iPod is still more justifiable than an iPad: if you don't like staring in front of a computer and you want a dedicated solution, it does wonders. It "just works".

 

[deebinem]

And if you've noticed MacOS lately, Apple has been inching Mac users to interacting with their Macs more like interacting with iOS and iPadOS, what with trying to get people to launch apps via icons and never looking at the file system in a Finder window.

I never had a problem with the method of interaction, I'm more bummed that sharing the same processor didn't allow for the same apps across both devices. Or I should say from macOS to iPadOS.

I couldn't care less about how I launch the app on macOS, I just care that I couldn't use the same app on my iPad.

 

[deebinem]

and the idiosyncracies of Windows.

Well that's a kind way of putting it.

 

[sack_peak]

As you can see in the answer, they don't really replace the battery. The replace the whole device. And at least here (I don't like in the US), the replacing costs sometimes MORE than I would spend buying a new iPad.

I read that and to be honest I'd rather get a newer year model refurbished iPad Pro with a fresh new battery than replace the battery of a 5yo model for around $100.

 

[Joe Dohn]

I read that and to be honest I'd rather get a newer year model refurbished iPad Pro with a fresh new battery than replace the battery of a 5yo model for around $100.

Good for you, bad for the planet – and you wouldn't see much of a difference just for watching content anyway.

 

[Any name]

Even if we had new iPads their revenue would drop anyhow. Higher end iPads have become redundant outside of use for artists and most just buy an iPad and hold onto it for five years or longer. Not to mention the fact iPadOS updates are all just sloppy seconds of the previous iOS update every year, so why even get an iPad anymore when Apple's treating owners like second class citizens versus the iPhone and Mac?

Guts of a Mac, but does a lot less than a Mac, and is more expensive than a Mac. At that point, JUST BUY A MAC. And many agree as the Mac has been making more revenue than the iPad.

View attachment 2296613View attachment 2296612

I regret having bought an iPad instead of a MacBook. I thought I could get by with an iMac and an iPad. This mistake might have cost me thousands of euros already

 

[sack_peak]

Good for you, bad for the planet – and you wouldn't see much of a difference just for watching content anyway.

You know what's bad for the planet having a world population of more than 1 billion people.

Solution for that is for everyone to stop at 2 kids only so we'd drop down from 8+ billion to ~1 billion within 230 years.

That's the time span it took to breach 1 billion to 8+ billion.

 

[ingerlund]

Does anyone really care about these predictions? They’ve been out there for years and yet Apple is still a going concern. If you believed all this nonsense we’d all be sporting Microsoft phones.
Let’s just knock success instead

 

[George Dawes]

A choice of two iPad os’s at launch of the ipad :

A dumbed down easy to use one for kids and the elderly that doesn’t allow access to files or settings

A supposed pro version that does

Is that too much to ask ?

 

[DownUnderDan]

Upgrade cycles have lengthened for all devices from all brands.

Unless they can rope in new users and keep existing users alive to continue buying their device then they will see stagnant revenue.

You can improve margins by lowering cost of bill of materials, operational expenses and other cost centers.

Or as I suspect Apple will do, by making the products more pretty, but also more fragile in some ways, raising the cost of RAM and storage so you go for the base which is more limited in useful life and if all else fails bring forward the end of life date of all products, to force more upgrades due to security concerns as product support is dropped. In other words, create a bunch of scenarios that cause a false demand for upgrades. I suspect the Mac is already a victim of this thinking as with Apple silicon its upgrade cycle would normally drop as its a significant upgrade in processing power over previous generations, regardless of which model you get. The solution has been to make everything that improves the longevity of your Mac like RAM and storage upgrades locked into time of purchase and ludicrously expensive, so you go for the base model or only one minor upgrade at purchase and hopefully outgrow it sooner and thus generate more sales down the road when you need to upgrade again.

 

[sack_peak]

Or as I suspect Apple will do, by making the products more pretty, but also more fragile in some ways, raising the cost of RAM and storage so you go for the base which is more limited in useful life and if all else fails bring forward the end of life date of all products, to force more upgrades due to security concerns as product support is dropped. In other words, create a bunch of scenarios that cause a false demand for upgrades. I suspect the Mac is already a victim of this thinking as with Apple silicon its upgrade cycle would normally drop as its a significant upgrade in processing power over previous generations, regardless of which model you get. The solution has been to make everything that improves the longevity of your Mac like RAM and storage upgrades locked into time of purchase and ludicrously expensive, so you go for the base model or only one minor upgrade at purchase and hopefully outgrow it sooner and thus generate more sales down the road when you need to upgrade again.

>80% of users buy the base SKUs.

<20% of users buy the bumped up chip, ram & storage.

Those changes above likely reduced the cost of bill of materials and simplified process hence the iMac 24" 4.5K that replaces the iMac 21.5" 4K share same price points.

2019 iMac 21.5" 4K Intel 14nm	Price	2021 iMac 24" 4.5K M1 5nm
iMac "Core i3" 3.6 21.5"	$1,299	iMac "M1" 8 CPU/7 GPU/2 Ports 24"
iMac "Core i5" 3.0 21.5"	$1,499	iMac "M1" 8 CPU/8 GPU/4 Ports 24"
iMac "Core i7" 3.2 21.5"	$1,599	N/A
iMac "Core i7" 3.2 21.5"	$1,699	iMac "M1" 8 CPU/8 GPU/4 Ports 24"

Even when the 2021 iMac screen size increased and parts improved in performance per watt, raw performance and power consumption.

Smaller iMac	2019 Intel	2021 M1
Chip die shrink	14nm	5nm
Dimensions	45.0 cm, 52.8 cm, 17.5 cm	46.1 cm, 54.7 cm, 14.7 cm
Avg Weight	5.66 kg	4.46 kg
Display	21.5" 4K	24" 4.5K
RAM type & speed	2666 MHz PC4-21300 DDR4	LPDDR4X-4266MHz
Power Consumption	166W	80-84W

It is equivalent to moving from a fossil fuel vehicle to an EV.

A reason why autoworkers at GM, Ford and Chrysler went on strike is because the transition to EVs would mean less need for manpower.

Typical replacement cycle for computers

- 4 years: Apple
- 5-6 years: Intel
- 9+ years: macOS EOL
- 122 months: Windows EOL
- 11+ years: <8% 🇺🇳; <9% 🇺🇸; <5% 🇬🇧; <13% 🇮🇳; <8% 🇨🇦; <2% 🇦🇫; <0% 🇰🇵; <5% 🇨🇺

Most consumers, not Mac or PC nerds, rather replace the whole device than replace parts after a few years.

2019 macOS Catalina does not officially support hardware older than

- 2012 iMac
- 2012 MBP
- 2012 MBA
- 2013 MP
- 2015 MB

Final macOS Catalina Security Update was on Jul 2022.

 

[iPadified]

Before heralding the death of iPads and "fixes":
We should see if Mac sales also declines and I think it will - same reason as for iPads, longevity, post corona slump, current economic climate.
The number of iPads likely outsells the Mac 2:1 due to lower price points compared to Macs - iPad is still a very strong platform to sell services to.
The large majority of Apple services are aimed toward consumption and not so called pro work
MacOS for a consumption device makes no sense at all - iPadOS is exactly where it should be
MacOS on iPad would as said above lead to lower MacBook sales - no point

I wonder, which OS is triggering Mac users most? Windows or iPadOS?

 

[sack_peak]

The number of iPads likely outsells the Mac 2:1 due to lower price points compared to Macs - iPad is still a very y

2022 Apple Worldwide Shipments in millions of units

- 226.4: iPhone
- 28.6: Mac
- 61.8: iPad

 

[Harmonious Zen]

I hardly use mine anymore. I am on my MacBook all day for work and in the evening it’s just more convenient to chill on the couch with the phone in my hand. Typing is also easier (for me) because you can still use it laying down on the side, being a lazy bum haha

Me too. MacBook > iPad all day long.

 

[svish]

People hold on to their iPads for a long time and upgrade less frequently. This will cause revenues from iPad to be less.

 

[tomtad]

Mark my words. We're going to see a change of strategy with the iPad line up and the Air is about to be canned.

This will leave two clear lines, the iPad and iPad Pro. They will likely keep an old model on as a budget iPad but that won't be under development.

Both lines will also have two distinct accessories. The iPad keyboard we have now will be joined by a new, Pro keyboard for the iPad Pro which will be more laptop like and include aluminium casing.

And finally those touch screen Mac's rumoured for next year? Well part of that project will be to bring a touch screen mode to macOS which will also work on the iPad Pros.

 

[saturn88]

Apple's quarterly iPad revenue will significantly decline in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis, according to estimated figures shared today by Erik Woodring, an analyst at investment firm Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple will report iPad revenue of $7.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, which would be a decline of approximately 23% compared to the $9.4 billion that Apple reported for the segment in the year-ago quarter.

The year-ago quarter will be a tough comparison for iPad revenue, according to Morgan Stanley, as Apple announced updated iPad Pro models and the 10th-generation iPad last October. Over the weekend, two reports indicated that Apple plans to announce updated iPad Air, iPad mini, and entry-level iPad models this week, although some credible sources like Bloomberg's Mark Gurman have cast doubt on this rumor.

It's unclear if Morgan Stanley expects new iPads to launch this month, but given the firm expects iPad revenue to significantly decline this quarter, the firm is at least not expecting any iPad updates that are major enough for revenue growth. Only minor changes are expected for the next iPad Air, iPad mini, and entry-level iPad whenever the devices are released, including an M2 chip for the iPad Air and an A16 Bionic chip for the iPad mini.

There are also rumors of a third-generation Apple Pencil with interchangeable magnetic tips for drawing, technical drawing, and digital painting.

Apple has yet to release any new iPads this year. If that trend continues for the remainder of 2023, it would be the first calendar year with no new iPads released in the device's 13-year history. The two reports expecting new iPad models this week said Apple's announcement would likely be on Tuesday, so we'll see what happens tomorrow.

Article Link: New iPads or Not? iPad Revenue Predicted to Sharply Drop in Q4 2023

Tablet is a cumbersome and therefore useless device. Can't use it single handedly like phone. Can't type as easy as on laptop.

 

[Heat_Fan89]

Tablet is a cumbersome and therefore useless device. Can't use it single handedly like phone. Can't type as easy as on laptop.

It might be for you but that's not the case for everyone. In bed or on the couch the iPad makes for a great device.

 

[Waragainstsleep]

I think its because the entry level model is 25% or so more expensive than the previous one.

 

[Joe Dohn]

Mark my words. We're going to see a change of strategy with the iPad line up and the Air is about to be canned.

This will leave two clear lines, the iPad and iPad Pro. They will likely keep an old model on as a budget iPad but that won't be under development.

Both lines will also have two distinct accessories. The iPad keyboard we have now will be joined by a new, Pro keyboard for the iPad Pro which will be more laptop like and include aluminium casing.

And finally those touch screen Mac's rumoured for next year? Well part of that project will be to bring a touch screen mode to macOS which will also work on the iPad Pros.

Count me out on this!

 

[DesertNomad]

Mark my words. We're going to see a change of strategy with the iPad line up and the Air is about to be canned.

This will leave two clear lines, the iPad and iPad Pro. They will likely keep an old model on as a budget iPad but that won't be under development.

Both lines will also have two distinct accessories. The iPad keyboard we have now will be joined by a new, Pro keyboard for the iPad Pro which will be more laptop like and include aluminium casing.

And finally those touch screen Mac's rumoured for next year? Well part of that project will be to bring a touch screen mode to macOS which will also work on the iPad Pros.

I hope they keep the iPad mini. It is used widely in aviation as it's the only one that is small enough to be yoke-mounted. Just about every pilot I know (Part 91/135 and even some 121) uses a mini to keep FAA charts and approach plates.