I see them dropping in the Spring, that's an 18 month cycle.
If they drop this Fall, on a 12 month cycle, that means M2 was so delayed they are rushing to get its generation out to allow room for the upcoming M3 generation which is likely on target for Fall of 2023.
Intel was struggling on a 12-month cycle… but was hitting 18 month cycles. Except Apple PR’d it that they were hamstrung by that, impacting their yearly product cycle, even while Apple ignored many of the Tocks to the Ticks, or the 2nd Tock (Intel’s 3rd iteration) altogether, and inexplicably continued to sell old cpus (Mac mini 2014, anyone??).
Soooo… what do we all say if Apple now moves to an 18 month cycle??? Apple can’t be allowed to have it both ways. Esp since Intel has “woken up”… looking forward, it doesn’t look good. And, besides, 18-month cycles make for all kinds of tertiary purchasing “interference wave” problems. It’s just not smart.
The biggest reason I feel Apple MUST keep iterating on a yearly schedule is that a) it is how business and consumer schedules work and b) as we’ve already seen with the Media Engine improvements in the M2 outpacing the M1 Max (h265 and AV1), basic core updates make a market where “pros” are stupid if they buy “last year’s” “Pro” machine because last month’s $1200 entry-level laptop does a faster job…so they don’t… again, they’re not stupid… they wait. They slow purchasing and wait Apple out. Only Apple seems to be stupid enough, and perhaps spiteful enough, to not seem to realize this (ie the Mac Pro in the last decade). It really is inexplicable. A $3T company should
never be forcing their “best” customers to buy “last year’s gear” and expecting them to smile about it. Everywhere else this happens, other industries, like automobiles, we laugh at that, as silly. Only Apple seems to get the pass.
Oh, and meanwhile, completely contrary to Apple’s “Apple Silicon success story” PR narrative, both global and US Mac market shares are back below 10%, by every metric. Those are “Apple is a dead company walking” numbers… yet… why isn’t Apple trying harder to make Macs more affordable (which you’d think would be a great “DEI” move) or not make their best customers wait?? Dell, Lenovo, HP, and ASUS are selling machines globally at numbers greater than Apple, so it can’t all be “supply chain”. Sure, Apple isn’t “dead” because they now have iPhone… but if the Mac market share 25 years ago wasn’t enticing enough to developers, with the global PC market declining altogether now where does that leave the Mac/macOS???