Agreed, it would be courageous, but I still think they’d do it. From one of the other posts, Apple’s in a position to make having, say, Photoshop running on an ARMac on day one, more likely than not. If Apple’s been testing alternate platforms, I’m sure they’ve had partners under NDA to try them out as well. I could see a WWDC announcement of the new ARM hardware, with many of the major vendors that are still in operation voicing support for the hardware when it ships later in 2020. Those that have already been left behind by Catalina’s Extinction Event won’t be affected by ARM because they’ve already settled on staying behind.but it would still be "courageous" to launch a new Mac that couldn't run (say) MS Office or Photoshop on day one
I think the recent refresh of most of the Intel machines last year was a way to say “buy these ‘cuz you may want to hold on to them for awhile”. Legacy Pro’s will hold on to those old machines as consumers and new Pro’s snap up the new ones. I’m very interested in the performance of FCP tailored for an ARMac.