ok that's ****ed up now . were did you hear that ? (referring to the last statement of yours )
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Next-Generation MacBook Pro Models With M2 Pro and M2 Max Chips Reportedly 'Delayed Once Again'
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Not really. It is Apple that made such a big deal of switching to their own SoC. So the delay clustermess of upgrading MPs and the high end of MBPs is Apple's clustermess, not analysts or users like me wanting to upgrade old high end boxes to modern Apple SoC. With M2 out for more than a year now, offering only M1 MBPs at the top end is not acceptable.
<Note that through ignorance many here insist that the arbitrary 3nm label is necessary, but I do not.> I am very specifically not whining about what node an M2 comes from. M2 itself is a year old and Apple could upgrade things like WiFi, USB, HDMI, Bluetooth, etc. without waiting for some new SoC process to reach cost-effective yields.
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New rumor (by MaxTech) is that Apple is planning a Press Release by the end of this month for MacBook Pro and Mac Mini
Sounds a lot like his usual speculation. " It actually makes a ton of sense".
Four TB3 ports on a new Mac mini, sure as everything is now either TB4/USB4. Still March April
I'll wait till they actually release it. The back and forth is just too much.
Unfortunately saying "just buy it on discount and be happy" is so simplistic in the fast-advancing tech world as to be absurd. Yes, it is a mistake to buy the MBP M1P/M right now. One must get a darn good discount (not just a couple of $hundred) to justify buying a top-end MBP with two-year-old tech inside.
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No. People like me who buy the $4k+ MBPs just expect the top MBPs we willing spend so much on to have the latest Apple silicon, Bluetooth, WiFi, TB, memory, HDMI, USB, etc. This is tech: selling two-years-old tech is unacceptable at the high end.
Not FOMO. Simply wanting current tech when paying top dollar for MBP Pros and Maxes. The tech world advances rapidly and M1 came out two years ago!
Nothing wrong with (old now) M1, but only if discounting exceeds $1k like when I bought my 2016 MBP in 2017. And note that 2017 had less tech evolution over 2016 than year-old M2 already has over M1.
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The 4090 doesn't have ridiculous power requirements. It's actually at least 56% more efficient than the 3090. Nvidia overengineered/oversized the cooling solution because they thought the AD102 would run way hotter and use way more power but it didn't. With a little voltage adjustment the 4090 instantly drops 50w in power usage without affecting the performance. I mean seriously, the internet is full of reviews and deep dives in AD102's, AD103's architecture characteristics, it's funny how much users on this site live in a bubble but want to give opinion about different hardware and chips.
And it's true, the M1 Ultra's GPU isn't competition for the 4090 in any way as the 4090 is in a different universe in terms of performance.
Yep, A16 was supposed to be 3nm, with redesigned GPU cores, and probably go into the entire iPhone 14 line. But sometimes things take longer than expected. It's not a crisis, it's just life.
And honestly, we're talking about Macs that have been on sale for, what, 14 months? That had pretty long shipping delays for a portion of that time and are only recently starting to see discounts. That's not old.
The prior 16" intel MBP was 23 months old before the M1 Pro/Max models came out, and in that time only added the ability to BTO a higher end GPU. People need to calm down and buckle up for 18-36 month long product cycles at the high end.
There's no way we're getting complete new mac lineups every year, and that's ok! Even the M3 is almost certain to be a "2 generation" jump from the M2, there's no reason to release it until late this year, so it likely will be on 3NM and use A17 based cores. I totally disagree with your opnion that the rest of the M2 lineup will be on 5nm. I don't think there will be more M2 chips. Everything that's still to come should be on 3nm and branded as "M3." I truly think the next "Pro/Max" chip will be where we first see 3nm and the cores that will power A17. There's just no logic or business case to release a 5nm chip based on your 2021 core design in 2023.
I truly think we'll see a cadence like this (obviously not predictions or anything, just the general idea that M series lasts 12-16 months and the Pro/Max skips generations and lasts 20-30 months):
Idk, between all the sources that have said anything it’s pretty certain at this point that the first Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be 5NM.
Gurman has said this, I believe Quo has said this, both quite recently too.
It would make absolutely no sense to introduce a M2 based Mac Pro around the same time as introducing a M3 based MacBook Pro.
I also think it’s quite certain just going off of all the reports that all agree that the Apple Headset will more than likely be based off of the 5NM M2.
Also, 3NM only first went into production a couple months ago. A chip process going into production and then being seen in millions of products takes a lot of time.
I think, just like the process shrink from 7 nm down to 5 nm back in 2020, the A17 in the iPhone 15Pro/Ultra and maybe the iPad Mini will be Apple’s first 3NM based products in September, followed by an M3 line of chips in late 23/early 24.
could it be TSMC not producing enough yield? hmm.. I can wait till perhaps by March and that's all...
If it’s really late this year for 3nm in products, then the MBP should not be updated until late this year. The Pro/Max SoCs are low volume and need to be around for a while to recoup R&D costs. There may have been a plan for an M2 Pro at some point, but logical evidence points to it being cancelled quite a while ago.
If the M2 Pro existed, products using it would be out. It’s based on 2 year old designs, on a process node that has excess volume due to cancellations, and would go into barely refreshed final products, meaning other supply chain issues likely have little impact. The most likely source of the so called “delay” to the MBP is designing and producing a new SoC.
I say “delay” because I fully expected the late 2021 MBPs to go at least 18 months without an update, seeing as it was common for older MacBooks to be out for 18-24 months even if Intel put out new chips. I’m really not sure where the idea that we’d get annual updates to all Macs came from. Apple clearly would prefer to update the Mac line as rarely as possible to spread out the cost of the update over a long, lower volume sales period.
it’s unlikely that Apple’s plan is to replace the M2 with the M3 after just a few months or to spend through the nose for the first 3nm wafers only to watch a competitor get 3nm in desktops/laptops first (AMD plans to have a full stack of zen 5 on 3nm out in 2024). Given those conclusions, the only possible MBP update is to an “M3 pro” on 3nm. Even if that means the MBP doesn’t get updated until late in 2023.
I could be wrong, maybe Apple will release placeholder products for a few months, but if they don’t get the Mac lineup mostly moved to 3nm before zen 5 launches, something has gone very wrong.
Finally, I agree, the first gen AS Mac Pro would have been 5nm, had it launched last year as expected. Now that it’s still months away if launching at all, and given that it’s likely to go many years without an update, launching with 2 year old tech would be suicidal.
It’s this. 100%. The only logical reason for a “delay” (I still think there never was going to be a 2022 MBP, the previous 16” MBP was on sale for 23 months!) is that the next MBP relies on a 3nm SoC, and that process finally went into volume production a couple weeks ago.
I want to agree with you, but I think that apple’s schedule speaks for itself.
Apple is most certainly not working on releasing product to completely match with AMD and Intel, they very much don’t care.
Remember, Apple is not selling processors, Apple is selling full put together and assembled products.
Also let’s look at the 5NM roll out.
Production began in April 2020.
First Apple Products to use it were released in October 2020 and faced a lot of delays.
The iPad didn’t move down to 5 nm until May 2021, over a year after it began production.
The MacBook pros didn’t get 5 nm until October 2021, over a year and a half after 5 nm went into production.
Also 5NM isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, remember that TSMC plans on beginning production in Arizona in 2024… On 5 nm.
3 nm is going to be very limited, and only began production about two months ago.
If you really think Apple’s not saving all of their 3 nm chips for the iPhones this fall, I’m thinking that there is going to be a lot of disappointment with these upcoming Macs.
Also, Apple using 5 nm in the Mac Pro is absolutely not suicide, that’s just ridiculous.
Apple could discontinue the Macpro entirely tomorrow, and be totally fine.
And they know this.
As for the MacBook Pro, I have no idea why anyone is expecting those to move down this early.
Mid 2024 is when I expect Apple to introduce the M3pro and max on 3NM, I think people are getting way too ahead of themselves.
We had a similar period of MBP craziness before WWDC 2021, it took several months later for them to be announced. The 14"/16" MBPs were released earlier than the 2022 predictions.
Redesigned MacBook Pro Models Still on Track for 2021 Launch, But Supplies Likely to Be Constrained into Next Year
Volume production of the redesigned 16-inch MacBook Pro with Apple silicon and a mini-LED display is set to begin in the first quarter of 2022, while...
www.macrumors.com
Now we have more speculative thoughts, M2 or M3, will the SoC be on the energy saving 3 nm. Pronounced or incremental performance gains. Outside that what other things has improved aside from Wifi6 to WiFi6E.
I fully expect Apple to introduce new MacBook pros in the spring.We had a similar period of MBP craziness before WWDC 2021, it took several months later for them to be announced. The 14"/16" MBPs were released earlier than the 2022 predictions.
Redesigned MacBook Pro Models Still on Track for 2021 Launch, But Supplies Likely to Be Constrained into Next Year
Volume production of the redesigned 16-inch MacBook Pro with Apple silicon and a mini-LED display is set to begin in the first quarter of 2022, while...
Now we have more speculative thoughts, M2 or M3, will the SoC be on the energy saving 3 nm. Pronounced or incremental performance gains. Outside that what other things has improved aside from Wifi6 to WiFi6E.
I expect them to have 5NM (probably marketed as 4 nm) M2pro and max chips.
I expect the M2 Mac Mini and the 2023 Mac Pro to also stick to 5NM.
I expect people to moan and groan about it for the next year and a half, while Apple brings in in the profit.
I don’t expect the first 3 nm Mac until after the first 3 nm iPhone.
That’s just the way it’s worked for the past several chip revisions.
The iPhone got 7NM before the iPad.
The iPhone got 5 nm before both the iPad and the Mac.
There’s absolutely no reason to expect this to be any different.
Especially since we have leaked benchmarks that literally show a MacBook Pro with a processor that’s still 5 nm.
People are expecting Apple to move the fastest they’ve ever moved in their history, and… That is just not possible.
The MacBook Pro took over six months to finally catch up to production. Same with the Mac Studio.
Does anyone really expect Apple to constrain their suppliers even harder by coming out with a 3 nm MacBook Pro and a three NM Mac Pro only a couple months after production of that process began, and then follow that only a couple months later by a 3 nm iPhone and iPad?
The delays would be absolutely insane
All reasonable signs point to the Mac sticking to the M2 5NM until at least the fall, more than likely probably 2024.
Then we’ll see the M3 line introduced, and everyone can complain that apple is a year late.
Nothing new here.
Part of issue (?): Non-Apple pc sales were down at most/all other manufactures as a result of large sales during the stay-at-home part of pandemic. Somehow, Apple pc sales were essentially flat. Many folks are keeping machines longer because of mostly small incremental changes. May make sense to delay updates until we are in a period of increasing pc sales. MSFT, HPQ, DELL, LNVGY, LOGI... were hammered on the stock market from late Aug. to early Nov. (Although the Dow Jones 30 had its best month since 1976 in Oct. 2022.) Would not be unexpected to see a repeat, and possibly see sales declines at Apple in near future.
Most folks don't really need or necessarily want USB4 (or newly announced USB5), 802.11ax, and the other gee whiz new stuff. Warming up to idea of buying a 14" MacBook Pro, but will likely wait just a bit longer for an update. Main reason for purchase will be to get to a newer macOS version than supported on current 9+ year old late 2013 model (and to double the memory). Like to switch laptops every 10 years or so, whether I really need to or not.
Remember that most Apple chips, AMD chips and NVDA chips are produced at TSM (TSMC) chip foundries. Even some Intel chips are sourced from TSM.
www.eetimes.com
Most folks don't really need or necessarily want USB4 (or newly announced USB5), 802.11ax, and the other gee whiz new stuff. Warming up to idea of buying a 14" MacBook Pro, but will likely wait just a bit longer for an update. Main reason for purchase will be to get to a newer macOS version than supported on current 9+ year old late 2013 model (and to double the memory). Like to switch laptops every 10 years or so, whether I really need to or not.
Remember that most Apple chips, AMD chips and NVDA chips are produced at TSM (TSMC) chip foundries. Even some Intel chips are sourced from TSM.
Intel Will Rely on TSMC for its Rebound - EE Times
Intel will join Apple to order the world’s first 3-nm chips from TSMC as the Taiwan chip foundry ramps up its newest process this year.
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A 5nm, a14 or a15 based MacPro is suicide for the MacPro. But realistically, there’s not going to be an Apple silicon MacPro. The volume is musicale, and the hardware expectations are a galaxy away from what the M series can deliver. It’s just smarter to let that line finally die. Either that or we get a Max Studio with a couple non-gpu PCIe slots for $6k and up, and I think we can all agree just letting the name die is better than that.
It’s not about matching with AMD or intel, it’s about spending a lot of money and effort to be the launch customer for 3nm and then letting someone else get 3nm into computers first. The 5nm roll out may have been slow, but AMD only got to 5nm in late 2022, a year after the M1pro. Meanwhile, AMD’s roadmap still calls for 3nm Zen5 and Zen5c to launch during 2024. Apple should be concerned about zen 5, since laptop zen 4 is already nipping at m1pro’s perf/watt when in low power modes. If AMD gets a node advantage, Apple will lose their Perf/watt advantage, and I don’t see them willing to do that.
Also, realistically, even 1 million m3max dies likely takes less than 10k wafers (assuming the die is even larger than the M1 Max despite the denser node). Meanwhile TSMC was making almost 100k 5nm wafers per month by the end of 2020. Assuming a similar ramp up, the entire first quarter of MBP sales can be produced from 3 days worth of wafers. That’s inconsequential to iPhone production, especially since Apple can easily launch non-pro phones with the a16 to help yields for the a17.
But we can speculate all day. My main point is that there seems to be only a vanishingly small chance that an m2pro ever launches. The hardware and designs in the a15/m2 are far too out of date and the vastly better a17 and n3 node too close to release to make an m2pro feasible. Even if we get a winter/spring MBP on n5P or n4, it has to be based on a16 and therefore would still be named m3 pro not m2 pro. If the M2pro ever existed (and I don’t think it did, I always assumed the bigger, low volume dies would skips generations), it doesn’t now. Or we’d already have seen it.
The W series Xeons in the current Mac Pro are fabbed at 14nm and it is evidently one of Apple's better-selling current Mac families per a recent 9to5Mac article...
An M2 family SoC at 5nm is going to be significantly more power and thermal-efficient so I fail to see how it would be "suicidal" to move the model to it...