1) Yes, it's an assumption, but an educated one based on where the casual gaming market is today. The Wii U and 2DS are Nintendo's next gen consoles and the console lifecycle is about 5-6 years. Nintendo doesn't have that long to turn around because inertia will eat it up. As I said previously Nintendo was on the ropes before the Wii became an unexpected hit. It did not follow through with anything exciting with the Wii U so it's back to where it was before the Wii... nothing exciting to ignite consumers. The casual gaming $ is going to tablets and smart phones.
Here is Nintendo admitting the Wii U is a flop:
http://nypost.com/2014/01/19/nintendo-admits-wii-us-failure/
2) Comparing Nintendo with Sony is like comparing a hammer manufacturer to Home Depot. Nintendo sells one thing: game consoles and software. Sony is a huge conglomerate with movie studios, consumer electronics, professional electronics,medical devices, etc. Even IF the PS3 & 4 were money losers for Sony the division is a small segment on it's P&L. That's not true of Nintendo; it's games and SW are all it has.
But the truth...the PS3 and 4 will make Sony $ because of s/w licensing. Same with MS and Xbox One. There is no burn rate with those companies because,
unlike Nintendo, they are not posting consecutive year LOSSES.