Further theory:
I am still hopeful for Tuesday 9/23 delivery here but I feel we're cutting it close.
Mine is currently in Osaka which it will board UPS105 to Anchorage per:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS105/history/20140922/1330Z/RJBB/PANC
Once it's in Anchorage, I suspect they will go to Louisville next. Now, based on prior UPS flight from PANC to KSDF, the flight time is about 5.5 hours.
If the plane landed in Anchorage at 12:48pm AK Time (which is 4:48pm ET), there are basically 2 more stops for most people. One to Louisville and another to the local hub of your area. Let's just say they take the next flight out to Louisville around, it'll be there around say 10pm-11pm ET in Louisville.
Cutting it a little close there because at least for me, they still need to go to my local UPS hub. We shall see!!