It only takes one article to make people aware of something from apple (especially techie types) and theres more than MacWorld - in the uk, you have stuff/t3 magazine for example, both of which have a 'rumours' page or a blog which has apple bits.I don't completely buy your reasoning. For instance, if you think MacWorld is going to publish an article every week for the next month saying "Wow, Apple is still out of iPhones" you are very wrong.
Yes Apple would lose a lot of money if they had an influx of returned iphones, not just the sales but also the manufacturing costs, nobody is likely to buy a refurb 1st gen when a 2nd gen is out.1a makes sense but
1b I assume you mean the "stupid rich people" bought one just before this instead of watching this site and they will have to buy a new one to get 3G?
Apple has known for a while how popular the iPhone really is. They must have attempted to plan this shortage to happen right before WWDC. Somebody messed up royally in their planning! Can they really afford to wait a month to fix this?
As to the rich people - how many people who have bought a 1st gen intend to buy a 2nd gen - a large amount I would bet. Assuming people have waited this long (due to contracts say) and 29 days after they buy a 1st gen a second gen comes out most would forfit the 10% or whatever just to get a 2nd gen - the simple who wants the last gen of a 'fashion' phone, so by removing the option of returning the phone those who can afford it will buy a second gen much sooner. If they've had the iphone v1 from release then they'll be buying a v2 anyways wouldn't they.