If that's live, it looks miles away from Germany, then they've got to load it on and off at Germany, then to UK...I would be very surprised if it gets here tomorrow!
I went to flight radar just after we noticed that the flight had been scanned out of departure from Almaty. The only UPS flight leaving Kazakhstan was UPS11 which looks on it's way to Europe. Hopefully it has the watch on board and heads to Cologne.
http://www.flightradar24.com/UPS11/67cc557