I don't think Apple or Google need to copy anything from Pebbles hardware or software. Apples going after the very high end market and they're killing it. It's just nice to have options, the pebble is competition because it's a smart watch. There are still traditional watches on sale too and those are also competing for a place on people's wrists.
And yeah obviously when he said a million he was talking total over all their product lines to date. That's still a huge number and honestly this new Pebble is the best yet and it looks way better than the older models, it has the highest appeal of any Pebble to date and that's a big deal.
Me personally I'll still probably buy an Apple Watch 2 and I prefer the way it looks to this new Pebble but I wouldn't discount the Pebble it's obviously here to stay and they keep raising millions at kickstarter to hedge their bets.
I see your point. The thing that we are discussing around is who the target market would be and if there is an overlap between Apple and Pebble. Apple is not only going for the very high end market,. Their watch is not that much more expensive than the Pebble. If you compare the functionality of the two the Apple watch provides much more (with only battery life being inferior) than the Pebble.
Sure Pebble is a competitor. Especially if you consider the entire watch market and consider that no-one will wear two watches at the same time. However, if you consider the smartwatch segment in which both compete, that market has become more crowded with Apple coming in and a number of others launching very good watches by themselves.
So, let's look at what consumers find important in a smartwatch (aggregated from opinions here and elsewhere):
- battery life
- design
- size
- app availability
- independence from smartphone
- screen quality
- screen usage
- waterproofing
- there might be more.....
I might have missed some out. But there are not that many of the above where Pebble is leading in (actually only battery life but at the expense of screen quality and usage).
So, if I as a consumer would be faced with the above list of criteria and would need to select the best option, then Pebble would stand little chance of coming out on top, whereas the others would all be more or less equal (Android vs iOS basically).
Will Pebble always be there? Possible. There might be customers that like the e-ink screen or the design and are wiling to pay for it. But Pebble needs to make sure that it has a feature or aspect in its product that the others cannot or will not copy. In the current situation, that means that Pebble would be married to the e-ink screen. I fail to see how that will be of much use, as battery technology is improving and the other manufacturers such as Samsung and Apple will increase their tech in that area (both through software and hardware means) to pull aside Pebble.
If at any point Samsung or Apple will match any of the functions that Pebble has (i.e. battery life at a similar price), then Pebble is dead in the water. I fear that Pebble does not have the marketing resources to counteract that power.
In addition, I'm not sure whether Pebble is still killing it on the kickstarter front. That was almost a year ago. Any self respecting VC or investor would leak twice before putting money in this company. That is going to be a serious problem in the future as it requires a large amount of capital to produce smart watches and retail them globally. They cannot afford to become a too small niche player or they will not be able to cover their costs. So, I see them disappearing in the not too distant future. Not wishing this on anyone, but I think this is what will happen if they do not change direction in a major way.