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Pebble Smartwatch Sales Climb to 400,000 Units, Revenue to Double in 2014
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I have to say, it's a pretty nice little device. It does what it needs to do and doesn't get in the way, which is as it should be.
Unfortunately it probably will. I love my Pebble but it just serves as a reminder that once someone as big as Apple jumps in they will dominate. Samsung doesn't quite "get it", which is a shame because competition is excellent for new markets.
Oh look, a $0.06b market Apple is not serving. Now they got to make an iWatch.
Right, because mp3 player, smartphone, and tablet markets were so huge before Apple entered them.
Thats pretty impressive, I had no idea Pebble had that level of sales (I realize in related personal electronics markets, its small, but in wearables, not bad!)
Good question.
I think thats a bit high, Im going to toss my guess into the ring and say $299. I dont believe Apple will do different capacities either, I think this will be single model, with maybe a no-price-different color/finish option.
Fun to speculate
Good question.
I think thats a bit high, Im going to toss my guess into the ring and say $299. I dont believe Apple will do different capacities either, I think this will be single model, with maybe a no-price-different color/finish option.
Fun to speculate
History tends to show that Apple sits at the heart of ecosystems of its own making, so I have little doubt that a considerable focus of iWatch design and function will be about the device playing a role in those ecosystems. Leveraging sales across platforms is something Apple understands better than almost any other company because they have absolute belief in their products.
That doesn't mean the iWatch won't have some functionality outside and independent of that ecosystem, but it's not unreasonable to anticipate that the 'killer' apps will almost certainly revolve around integration with iOS and MacOS devices and their apps.
redhawk87 said:
I think if all Apple thought it could do is design something that is much like everything else, they wouldn't bother. That isn't their DNA. It's not, for them, about changing watch straps or giving users analog or digital watch faces to pick between, it's about creating a truly compelling product, a reason for people to not just want one, but to spend lots of money because they have to have one. The ordinary and prosaic in the marketplace already is not what they are likely to be aiming for.
But in the end, regardless of what the iWatch turns out to be, there will still be space in the market for other players because the marketplace for smartwatches is potentially vast......and almost entirely untapped as yet.
They need to improve their customer service! I ordered the steel 8 weeks ago and when I emailed them to get a shipping estimate they replied with "thank you we have canceled your order". Oh great! I responded with reread my damn message and they told me to reorder and they would bump my order up. When I told them that ordering was unavailable for this watched they stopped responding to me.
One thing I'm learning is these Kickstarter companies are horrible at shipping
I ordered the Brushed Steel in mid-Jan. Shipping notification said 6-8 weeks after order date. 8 weeks passed. Yesterday they changed "6-8 weeks" to "shipping soon" (I guess people were canceling because of the new Android Smartwatch announcements). Then for whatever reason they changed it back to 6-8 weeks 12 hours later.
Only reason I haven't canceled my order yet is because there're no smartwatches I'm interested in except for this and the Moto 360, and the 360 isn't coming out til summer.
Don't forget... the Pebble starts at $150
I think they can still maintain a piece of the growing smartwatch market... and grow themselves.
What do you mean history shows itself? The only thing I can think of that Apple has done in the past 15 years that is even remotely related to what I am talking about is iPod+iTunes. You had to connect an iPod (and early iPhones) to a computer with iTunes installed in order to use it. But, iTunes was made for Mac AND PC. The iPod would of flopped big time if they made iTunes a Mac only program. Now that Apple has iCloud, as I mentioned, there is no need for their devices to be reliant on another. Right now, you can go out an buy ANY apple product and have it work out of the box without buy any other product. That, for the most part, has been Apple's motto. Apple products are suppose to "just work" out of the box. The only exception, like I said, was iPod+iTunes.
The coupling I am referring to is like when the first galaxy gear came out and it could only be used with a Note 3 and had to be paired with the phone 24/7 to work. Apple would never do something like that. They would never make a product they could never sell as a stand alone item. There is no reasonable reason why the iWatch needs to be anyways. Why do facebook notifications have to come from my phone? Why cant they just come through wifi? When I press the siri button, does it have to route my question through my phone before sending it to Apple's servers? No it does not.
With more and more players entering the 'wearables' market, that may indeed be an ambitious goal.
But I wouldn't count them out yet, as we don't know for certain when Apple will enter the fray, and if that will indeed be later this year, or maybe 2015. With some decent revenue, Pebble now has some resources for R&D, so they are able to expand, update and refine their products. All companies have to start somewhere, and so far I give them credit.
But if and when Apple does introduce, as expected, their 'iWatch', Pebble's revenue will definitely take a big hit, no one doubts that.
Oh look, a $0.06b market Apple is not serving. Now they got to make an iWatch.
How does that compare to iPod Classic revenue?
That revenue is about one fifteenth of the Apple TV "hobby".
It's kind of a problem when you have products like iPhone and iPad: Pebble is probably quite happy with their sales. But iPhone and iPad are so successful, if Apple releases a product that achieves the same results as Pebble, it would be called an utter failure. I suppose it _would_ be an utter failure.
I predict confidently that 400,000 pebble smartwatches will be appearing on ebay shortly after the iWatch is unveiled.
To be honest iOS devices still rely on a computer for 1 thing. Backing up any video you take (separate from a full system backup). iCloud Photo sync still doesn't sync the videos you take. (Yes I understand it says Photo and not Video). So you really can't just delete the videos you take because the only way to get them back is a full device restore.
Your right, Apple's iCloud does not back up videos, but does dropbox, Google Drive, etc? I use dropbox to auto back up my pictures but have never tried backing up video. I presume that an iWatch would have an appstore and you would be able to download dropbox or something comparable. Saying your iPhone relies on your computer to keep video is like saying your computer relies on an external hard drive to store 4K movies.
I think the big question here is what is the iWatch going to be? Is it going to be like all the other smart watches out right now and just relay messages and notifications from your phone to your wrist through bluetooth? Or is it going to be a stand alone device that receives its own notifications from its own set of apps through wifi? Or will it do both? There are arguments for both. The former does not require a data plan, the latter does.
If Apple makes the iWatch an iPhone companion product (the former), they are downplaying its relevance and restricting its reach. Apple would essentially be shooting itself in the foot on that one. That would be comparable to never releasing a windows version of iTunes back when the iPod was in it infancy. The iWatch may still allow for bluetooth syncing solely on the premise of reducing data usage, but I think that would be the only reason to allow it.
You do know that Android users buy Pebbles and that iWatch will only connect to the iPhone?
Also price point: I highly doubt that iWatch will cost $150... as the rumours go, this iWatch will also contain a Tricorder component, with a retina display.. and still manage a 7 day battery life and priced at less than $1K
I like the pebble but would never personally buy one.
If apple do release a smart watch, they could use it as a gateway device like the iPad and support every phone with bluetooth, including windows phone and android. Now that would mess with everyones heads for sure and apple could make it work.
The newly announced google APIs for smart watches etc really opens up the possibility for that. Apple has no need to lock in the user to apple products.
I would hope a apple watch would work stand alone, with basic functions over bluetooth with any phone or tablet and super tight integration and more functions with an iPhone, mac or iPad.
Who knows but predicting apple locking it down to iPhone only is maybe underestimating the ingenuity of apple.
If apple do release a smart watch, they could use it as a gateway device like the iPad and support every phone with bluetooth, including windows phone and android. Now that would mess with everyones heads for sure and apple could make it work.
The newly announced google APIs for smart watches etc really opens up the possibility for that. Apple has no need to lock in the user to apple products.
I would hope a apple watch would work stand alone, with basic functions over bluetooth with any phone or tablet and super tight integration and more functions with an iPhone, mac or iPad.
Who knows but predicting apple locking it down to iPhone only is maybe underestimating the ingenuity of apple.
I don't think Pebble will crumble, but growth will def. slow. They support Android too so an iWatch doesn't completely negate their market.
You wear your phone on your wrist? Doesn't that get heavy and awkward?
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Nope.
Gave my son-in-law a Pebble for Christmas and he loves using it with his Android phone.
His charity coordinator job involves constantly getting calls while on the road or in meetings. The Pebble has been enormously helpful to him because:
His charity coordinator job involves constantly getting calls while on the road or in meetings. The Pebble has been enormously helpful to him because:
- He didn't always feel the phone's vibrator in his coat or pocket. But he always feels the vibration on his wrist.
- Meetings are not interrupted by ringtones or vibrating phones on the table, or by his overtly checking his phone to see who's calling. He can just glance down at his watch and decide what to do. Lots less disruptive to others.
- Ditto while driving. Easier to glance at the watch to see if he needs to turn on his Bluetooth speaker. (Similar to cars with built-in caller id displays.)
Maybe that's the problem because I'm not talking about what you are talking about. I just voiced an opinion on why Pebble isn't likely to sink without trace just because an iWatch appears on the market.
Everything else, including speculation over what the iWatch may or may not be capable of doing or integrating with is just speculation because the only thing we know for sure about the iWatch at the present time is that it doesn't actually exist as a product.
But let's not forget that Apple's history of integration has gone far beyond the iPod and iTunes - that was merely the starting point. It's not just about adding additional hardware into the ecosystem either, though iPhones and iPads have certainly played their part, it's about the services too. In fact it is predominantly about the services, not the software or hardware. The iTunes store, app store and iBook store, even the Mac app store - all these things tie users, almost regardless of hardware platform, into the ecosystem and not only make Apple a sizable profit, but also act as a self-propelled marketing campaign.
That doesn't, in itself, speak to whether they would make the iWatch android compatible, but what does notably suggest they wouldn't is their contention that android represents a theft, by Google, of Apple's intellectual property. It would make it less than likely that they would legitimize it by not only supporting it directly, but also committing software teams to it while pushing iOS devs to developing apps for android too.
Anyway, thanks for your thoughts. It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but as the (very happy) owner of a Pebble, I'd be surprised if an Apple product in this sector of the market, at their typically premium prices, would drive Pebble out of business. I'd hope it drives them to greater innovation instead.
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Right, because mp3 player, smartphone, and tablet markets were so huge before Apple entered them.
Define "huge"
The company behind the Pebble is totally happy with their product being a niche product. It is also a niche that Apple CANNOT touch. There is NO WAY that Apple would ever at this point release a product with a black-and-white display, but color displays are TOTALLY UNUSABLE in bright sunlight. The Pebble is the only major smartwatch that functions like a watch.
Right, because mp3 player, smartphone, and tablet markets were so huge before Apple entered them.
At the time, the smartphone market was steadily climbing (50 million in 2005, 80 million in 2006, 122 million in 2007), and was starting to take off as more people transitioned from PDAs to smartphones.
Heck, that's why Apple finally jumped in, after waiting for every other company to build up the infrastructure and base smartphone market and data plans. The technology and the marketplace were becoming ripe.
Moreover, touch was also poised to take off, and capacitive was predicted to soon be the dominant type:
"the mobile phone market is almost ripe for an explosion in touch sensitive user interfaces and, when it comes, it will be capacitive technology that dominates."
![2006_touch_prediction.gif]( "2006_touch_prediction.gif")
"We expect most demand to come from finger-sensitive technology built into high-end feature phones. This will be a significant shift from today's wireless PDA segment, where most stylus-driven touch screen devices can be found."
- Strategy Analytics, June 2006
There's no doubt that Apple was a huge help in growing the public awareness of touch devices, and were a catalyst in making them a cool item to own, but changes were coming even if Apple had never come in.
For that matter, maybe it would've been better if they had not. Maybe the fewer number of users would all still have unlimited data plans, and most people would still be talking to each other at dinner!
(Yes, I'm becoming a bit of a Luddite - lol)
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