Not dead, just the major innovations are done for now. The product has matured beyond introducing massive features.
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Peter Thiel 'Confirms' the 'Age of Apple is Over,' But Says It's Not Tim Cook's Fault
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A lot of people on this site would agree with you, but I'm not sure the general public does. Pretty much any core i processor from the last few years, with 4-8 GB ram and a ssd, suffices for the needs of the overwhelming majority of consumers.
A post in a different thread yesterday pointed out the huge difference between using a 2001 computer in 2007 and using a 2011 computer in 2017. The former would have been a pretty bad experience; the latter is absolutely fine.
The same is now happening with phones. Even the A7 from 2013 remains a fine processor for general use; the RAM is far more of a limiting factor on the iPhone 5s/iPad Air/iPad mini 2. Even more dramatically, we're seeing basically no real-world differences at all between the a9 and a10 in typical use cases.
I'm not saying more power isn't needed for certain users, but certainly not for the majority.
I have been saying this for about two years now. And it's not really apple or googles fault. I totally agree with the article. And if major innovations are dead well as far as I'm concerned so are smart phones.
The whole thing hinges on what you understand "innovation" to mean. Take a better battery, for example...it wouldn't change the basic functionality of a phone, just make it last longer. It might be an innovation among battery technology, or not, but not necessarily everything that uses a battery. A new screen technology wouldn't fundamentally change the phone, just improve it. AR and VR come closer to potential innovation, I think...the possibility of changing the way we do things or how we understand things. I appreciate all the improvements Apple has made to the iPhone over the years, though.
Really? See I don't see that as "serious innovation". Not by a long shot
Thank you - we have become completely jaded and to say there is no more innovation is nonsense - just looking at my Earpods I marvel at the level miniaturization and technology Apple was able to pack there - I am sure they have a lot more in the lab and when it is ready we will see it.
While smartphones will remain incredibly important to our day to day lives, they are a mature product. I'd wager that a flagship phone next year won't provide a significantly different experience from a mid tier phone from last year, except in the area of AI.Not interested in any of those things, but cool
I think there's a lot of room for innovation with a phone. In fact it has the most room for innovation out of any of Apples products. But Peter Thiel is an attention-whoring douche.
AI is not really a phone advancement beyond your phone being one of a myriad entry points to the system. It could be on your laptop, a speaker or even an ear bud.
Your lack of interest is probably more due to lackluster past experiencre than a reflection of the technology's potential. Imagine that Siri is a real live person, whose full time job is to work with you exclusively and has access to any button you could press in you life. And they can do most tasks faster then you could yourself. You just have to ask. Even booking a vacation according to your family's schedule that meets your interests, complete with a flexible itinerary and digging up all the best deals in advance.
That is the end goal of AI.
Part of the issue is what constitutes innovation? How someone defines it will make a big difference in how one answers the question. What are the really big innovations in smartphones? The smartphone itself would be one. Maybe like the Kyocera Palm-phone my co-worker was developing against in 2001 while I was working on some WAP code for some Sprint phone.
After that I would say it was the capacitive multi-touch screen and iPhone OS. Would the retina be real innovation? Not really, it was just a refining of an existing LCD technology. Fingerprint sensor? Maybe. Certainly not the cameras or OS updates. Thinner or longer battery life? Not really.
That's the point. Innovation is semi-random and almost always re-ignites a new purchase cycle. Consider more recent history in photography with cameras. SLRs replaced TLRs and Rangefinders and spurred a lot of purchase and replacement. Next innovation was autofocus which caused people to re-buy and encouraged new purchases. Next was digital which did the same. There hasn't been any real innovation since, just a continued iteration of improvements.
Nothing wrong with iterations at all but they aren't innovative in and of themselves. I'd say the smartphone probably doesn't have much innovation left unless someone does something very radical and thinks up something that would cause us to drop what we have and start the purchase cycle over again.
After that I would say it was the capacitive multi-touch screen and iPhone OS. Would the retina be real innovation? Not really, it was just a refining of an existing LCD technology. Fingerprint sensor? Maybe. Certainly not the cameras or OS updates. Thinner or longer battery life? Not really.
That's the point. Innovation is semi-random and almost always re-ignites a new purchase cycle. Consider more recent history in photography with cameras. SLRs replaced TLRs and Rangefinders and spurred a lot of purchase and replacement. Next innovation was autofocus which caused people to re-buy and encouraged new purchases. Next was digital which did the same. There hasn't been any real innovation since, just a continued iteration of improvements.
Nothing wrong with iterations at all but they aren't innovative in and of themselves. I'd say the smartphone probably doesn't have much innovation left unless someone does something very radical and thinks up something that would cause us to drop what we have and start the purchase cycle over again.
Yes, people have been saying that for years. And OLED is not innovation. Its been in phones for years already.
Just saying that Peter Thiel lacks vision is an understatement. Apple may not revolutionise another industry in the short term but even that can change as the pace of tech is still accelerating. This are some of my favorite quotes I've found.
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
"Who the h*** wants to hear actors talk?" -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
"No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris." -- Orville Wright.
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
"Who the h*** wants to hear actors talk?" -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
"No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris." -- Orville Wright.
Whatever Peter Thiel says – or confirms – is just his personal opinion and doesn't matter. To nobody else but Peter Thiel himself, perhaps, but not a single one of us here.
What would matter to us, is when Apple would confirm this. And we ALL know one thing: That is not ever going to happen!
There is a lot more in the pipeline for the mobile phone industry, and Apple will do everything to keep being better, and create even more revenue. Starting with the iPhone 8
So am I worried? No. Not for a split second. Next!
p.s. I would love to see more innovation, as in quicker introduced, but the tech industry is not that simple and sometimes stuff does need a little time to mature. I'd gladly wait to have an even better and faster iPhone. Don't you?
What would matter to us, is when Apple would confirm this. And we ALL know one thing: That is not ever going to happen!
There is a lot more in the pipeline for the mobile phone industry, and Apple will do everything to keep being better, and create even more revenue. Starting with the iPhone 8
So am I worried? No. Not for a split second. Next!
p.s. I would love to see more innovation, as in quicker introduced, but the tech industry is not that simple and sometimes stuff does need a little time to mature. I'd gladly wait to have an even better and faster iPhone. Don't you?
Mr. Thiel completely lacks vision. Apple didn't even start yet. Campus 2 isn't even online yet. He has no idea and no imagination. Apple will move off the ground. No company on the globe has more potential then Apple right now. And this will not change till the petrodollar recycling game is over. Apple will move off the ground in the next decade compared where it is today...
When your house is being cleaned by a robot, your dinner expertly made by a robot, you get nightly massages from a robot, and your car is driving itself come back and tell me hardware has no more wow factor left.
The best AI in the universe won't mean jack without hardware innovation to maximize it's potential.
Were you around when another company with a different fruit name went under and thought their install base will be buying more phones and services?
Mature product? Probably, yes.
For iPads, they just need to make them and sell them to businesses.
For iPads, they just need to make them and sell them to businesses.
In a "Confirm or Deny" feature by The New York Times this week, PayPal co-founder and venture capitalist Peter Thiel "confirmed" that "the age of Apple is over" based on his belief that smartphones will lack further innovation.While the iPhone has become a familiar product as it turns ten, which perhaps makes it less exciting to some, to say smartphones are not an area where there will be any more innovation will certainly fuel a debate. And, of course, while the iPhone is Apple's most profitable product, it's not its only.
Thiel's comment can be argued one way or the other, but it does raise the question of what Apple's next "one more thing" will be after annual iPhone sales declined for the first time amid an uncharacteristically down year for Apple--perhaps something in the augmented reality or electric vehicle spaces? Will this be the year Apple pushes deeper into artificial intelligence with Siri and an Echo-like device?
Apple chief executive Tim Cook has routinely teased about what's around the corner. Last year, he said Apple has "great innovation in the pipeline," including "things you can't live without that you just don't know you need today." Likewise, he told employees last month that Apple has "great desktops in our roadmap," and earlier this week he said "the best is yet to come" for iPhone.
Article Link: Peter Thiel 'Confirms' the 'Age of Apple is Over,' But Says It's Not Tim Cook's Fault
Even the so called industry experts miss it: the Apple Watch is the new platform for explosive growth. Just still a bit early. You can't expect all the planets to line up at same time just because you want a pretty earnings curve. It will certainly come...
Really?? Jebus, we're in the infancy of the pocket-sized computer that controls our lives and he says there's no more innovation to be had? How short-sighted is this guy? He's a venture capitalist? How the hell does he make any money? Christ!
Guess we can just say the following, too:
We know what an automobile looks like and does. It's not the fault of Henry Ford, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.
We know what laptop looks like and does. It's not the fault of Adam Osborne, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.
We know what a microchip looks like and does. It's not the fault of Gordon Moore, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.
We know what a space station looks like and does. It's not the fault of NASA, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.
What a moron.
We don't know that this year will be the biggest change, for all we know this will be a 7S year. Rumours are just rumours.
Read his comments. He's not talking about Apple at all. He's saying smartphones at a whole. He believes that they're done. They've hit a point where they can't continue to get any better and will become old and stale. This has nothing to do with anything Apple has introduced. It's about the smartphone industry as a whole.
And it's all silly and wrong.
People were either non Apple users at the time or ignore how much Apple has done to advance computers for the masses.
Just yesterday I installed all kinds of things to a 2013 MBP bought on eBay for $ 1,250, which made me think of a comparison with the first Mac I bought 1984 for $ 2,400 , which had:
9" black and white screen vs. 13" color retina
no hard drive vs. 512 GB
256 K K K K , did I mention K ? vs. 16GB
no modem no Wi-fi
and it wasn't even portable and as Phil would say way more volume.
Add all the FREE apps (First Mac just came with MacWrite and Mac Paint and the next item was Multiplan from MS I think) and the advances and what we get for prices are indeed "earth shattering".
Truth. We need to stop buying into all these rumors. They'll only leave you disappointed. There is zero evidence that this years iPhone will be anything other than a 7S like we've seen every other year since the iPhone 3G in 2008.
tech is going to become harder and harder to really grow and make a difference. There's only so much one can improve seems odd for him to say this in a year where big improvements are expected.