Peter Thiel 'Confirms' the 'Age of Apple is Over,' But Says It's Not Tim Cook's Fault

[avanpelt]

That's the trouble though. TC is just a constant tease without actually giving up the goods.

Yeah, I wish Tim would just say, "We've got some great products; and our intent is to make sure our existing users and new users will have even better experiences with Apple products in the future."

That's literally all he has to say. That statement should encapsulate 100% of what Apple is about. It doesn't promise that new products are "in the pipeline", necessarily, but it also doesn't say that they aren't. Frankly, if I never heard Tim Cook utter the word "pipeline" again for the rest of his career at Apple, I'd be fine with that.

 

[H. Flower]

If the next iPhone has an edge to edge screen with Touch ID and cameras imbedded in the screen as rumored, I'd say that's some serious innovation going on.

Hmm. It'd be cool, yes.

But how would that be a game changer ? You already have Touch ID and cameras.

I believe thiel is referring to innovation that disrupts the market, and can grow Apple as a company.

 

[lennyeiger]

I guess he hasn't seen Windows 10....

 

[twinlight]

Well, it will stay pretty much the same for a while now. Big screen, bunch of sensors, battery, speakers and some cameras. Not much that can change there. What new sensors we will get is another thing. That's where the players can innovate now.

I predict we get better cameras for AR applications and 3D scanning of surroundings. Possible iteration would be one camera at each end of the phone and then put it in a case like Google Cardboard. Maybe some form of sensors that can collect data like air quality and ambient noise pollution.

Not much else can change and I don't think we want any bigger changes.

Folding phone? Nah
Physical keyboard? Nah

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

Then who's fault is it?

 

[jedi108]

Apple is not a young company in terms of the average age of its engineers. It has serious issues with limiting the internal flow of knowledge. Both of these data points do not bode well for innovation which is typically more the domain of the young and the open. Yes, Apple could come up with an amazing next product but there's absolutely nothing to indicate this is happening. New products (the watch, the wireless headphones) are nice but not earth shattering. Improvements to existing products are not only marginal, in many cases they do not even keep up with the competition (OLED displays, wireless charging--both available for a few years already in competing products; Amazon is eating Apple's lunch with Alexa integration everywhere).

So yah, I'm a huge Apple fan and my house is drowning in Apple products. But beyond the next iPhone, it is really hard to see why Apple is more likely to come up with something big rather than Google or a few others. If Tim Cook wants to change that he needs to change some of Apple's culture and attract some young talented tech. Not optimistic he can.

 

[lazyrighteye]

People are funny.

It's fascinating just how much 2007 redefined our expectations of innovation. Prior to Steve's keynote, Apple was considered the most innovative company on the planet. Since then, they can't innovate to save the struggling business.

The only thing that has changed about the act of innovating is our expectation. Innovation isn't an app. It's not an event you can add to your Calendar: Tuesday. 1 pm. Innovate. It comes in all shapes and sizes. Some more click-worthy than others. The ingredients for innovation are the exact same as they've always been and always will be: opportunity, effort, patience, persistence and luck.

Steve said it himself - [paraphrasing] to have an opportunity to work on one innovative project in your lifetime is amazing. To work on more than one is unprecedented. In my experience, those who question innovation have likely not done anything innovative in their life. For those that have, know what is required.

 

[robbyx]

Lots of hate for Thiel on here, a guy who is far more successful and had a far greater impact on technology and the Internet than probably everyone reading this forum. But that doesn't matter. Fanboys know best!

There's a lot of truth to what he says. All new technologies reach a point of maturity. After that, the improvements become far less innovative. Just look at the personal computer. We're still using decades-old interfaces and ways of interacting with the machine (ie: keyboard and mouse). Have computers improved in the past several decades? Absolutely. The hardware has gotten much better, more powerful, etc., allowing for more complex operating systems and applications. But we're still pointing and clicking and dragging and dropping and typing.

Smartphones have peaked, leaving manufacturers to add silly gimmicks like Samsung's feature that tracked eye movement or Apple's pointless 3D touch and taptic engine. No one is going to reinvent the smartphone in any meaningful way. We'll see improvements in hardware, improvements in software, and more gimmicks billed as "innovation" (the mostly meaningless word in tech).

Where I disagree with Thiel is the suggestion that the age of Apple is over. Just because smartphones are now commonplace devices, that doesn't mean they can't be a great business while we all wait for the next big thing, whether that comes from Apple or someone else. I don't think we'll see anything groundbreaking for years in the tech industry. It's going to be a solid decade or more before voice interaction becomes truly workable. Until the machine can understand context, intent and nuance, voice interaction will be limited to what it is today (pretty basic stuff that the machine gets wrong half the time).

Anyone can add a new bleeding edge feature to a device and call that innovation. It's not. True innovation is when you come up with a new solution, a new, unexpected, way of doing something. That's what touch brought to the phone market. That's what menus and the mouse brought to computers. And there were decades in between. I honestly wish people would stop using the word innovation because 99.9% of what people called innovation today is nothing more than iteration/evolution.

 

[usamaah]

>It's not the fault of Tim Cook, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.


You'll never need more than 640 kB of RAM.

I think that has been debunked, it seems Gates never said this.

 

[centauratlas]

>It's not the fault of Tim Cook, but it's not an area where there will be any more innovation.


You'll never need more than 640 kB of RAM.

16GB of RAM. But until the device is < 1mm thick, the quest goes on. Then it can double as a razor blade, but not be taken on airplanes.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

Here's the thing though:

a) You could have made this statement about any of Apple's products throughout history. "We know what a computer looks like and does." See what I did there?

b) Peter Thiel is a complete bozo.

It's amazing how Apple has attracted some of the most irrational industry leaders, and in this case past leaders, constantly playing their doom?

Apple's best enemy throughout history has been... Apple...

(Apologies for the excursion into politics)

 

[MH01]

Based off this article I'm guessing that Peter Thiel still regularly uses his google glass and brown 8GB Zune since they peaked the AR and MP3 player in innovation in their respective categories.

How is the glass and MP3 market going ? Your kinda supporting his point ....

 

[johncarync]

I wouldn't put too much stock in his thoughts. Here are some other things that have been predicted...

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
Charles H. Duell, commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

 

[OrangeUglad]

In a "Confirm or Deny" feature by The New York Times this week, PayPal co-founder and venture capitalist Peter Thiel "confirmed" that "the age of Apple is over" based on his belief that smartphones will lack further innovation.While the iPhone has become a familiar product as it turns ten, which perhaps makes it less exciting to some, to say smartphones are not an area where there will be any more innovation will certainly fuel a debate. And, of course, while the iPhone is Apple's most profitable product, it's not its only.

Thiel's comment can be argued one way or the other, but it does raise the question of what Apple's next "one more thing" will be after annual iPhone sales declined for the first time amid an uncharacteristically down year for Apple--perhaps something in the augmented reality or electric vehicle spaces? Will this be the year Apple pushes deeper into artificial intelligence with Siri and an Echo-like device?

Apple chief executive Tim Cook has routinely teased about what's around the corner. Last year, he said Apple has "great innovation in the pipeline," including "things you can't live without that you just don't know you need today." Likewise, he told employees last month that Apple has "great desktops in our roadmap," and earlier this week he said "the best is yet to come" for iPhone.

Article Link: Peter Thiel 'Confirms' the 'Age of Apple is Over,' But Says It's Not Tim Cook's Fault

If I had a nickel for every person who said Apple is done, I would be a rich retiree. This must be aimed at temporarily lowering stock prices to buy low and sell high.

 

[MH01]

Smartphones have reached iPod saturation , sure you can have new models , but little innovation, now it's about colours and gimmicks.

 

[Blaze4G]

People haven't been saying that for years. They've ordered OLED panels for goodness sake. They'll finally change screen technology and it'll have a major redesign. Come back in September and tell me I'm wrong. Ta.

So how does this lead you to believe that the next iPhone will be some great innovation? Apple is using oled that has been in other smartphones for years. So oled + redesign is now innovation?

 

[robbyx]

If the next iPhone has an edge to edge screen with Touch ID and cameras imbedded in the screen as rumored, I'd say that's some serious innovation going on.

None of that is innovation. It's evolution. Nothing you describe is new. Touch ID was an innovative feature. Embedding it (and cameras) into the screen is very cool, but you already have Touch ID and you already have cameras. If they become embedded, that just means that Apple found a better way of packaging those features. Don't confuse upgrades designed to motivate consumers to open their wallets with innovation. Two different things.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

I wouldn't put too much stock in his thoughts. Here are some other things that have been predicted...

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
Charles H. Duell, commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

Ken Olsen's comment is tragic. It probably told Digital's doom better than anything else he did. A lack of vision. They could have owned the mini computer industry, and taken on the 'big boys' for a bigger niche market, and failed. My first computer was a Digital PDP-8I. I couldn't boot it though because I couldn't find a paper tape reader in time. It actually had DECTape drives. Pretty awesome for the age of the unit.
[doublepost=1484246026][/doublepost]

None of that is innovation. It's evolution. Nothing you describe is new. Touch ID was an innovative feature. Embedding it (and cameras) into the screen is very cool, but you already have Touch ID and you already have cameras. If they become embedded, that just means that Apple found a better way of packaging those features. Don't confuse upgrades designed to motivate consumers to open their wallets with innovation. Two different things.

Even the rumored iris scanning isn't new.

 

[MacSince1985]

Innovation will slow down, but there's plenty of room for evolution.

It doesn't take much imagination to see the smartphone replace most personal computers some day. Pair it with a display at work, home, car, hotel room, or even Starbucks (like AirPlay but without the latency) and a keyboard. Processing power will continue to increase and apps will take advantage of that new environment.

 

[drewyboy]

Wow, so much hate towards him. Reason being, he's right. Smartphones as we know them have become commoditized. It's happened at a way quicker pace than I think anyone had thought it would. I mean look at it. Year after year, the biggest things that get hashed out is who has the better screen and camera. That's not innovation, that's evolution. A full screen no button iPhone isn't really innovative either. It's the most practical next step, so with any additional biometric sensors. Set your apple bias aside, and look at what they've shown off the last two to three years and it reminds of keynotes before the iPhone, you know when they talked about macs. Things are slowing down in the innovation.

If you don't believe me, ask yourself why Tim has gone full steam services. Smartphone market isn't fully saturated but it's getting close, at least in the large growth rate. For the most part it's going to be people leave android to iOS, and vise versa. Back and forth.

Truth is, Apple currently doesn't have a next that we can clearly see. iPad is hardly a next, it's a niche. Same goes with the apple watch. Wearables in general haven't taken off as much as people thought they would.

I'm not saying Apple's doomed but let's face it, the iPhone is nearing it's peak of "innovation". If you count faster speeds, better camera, or better display as innovative, then our definitions of innovation are then very very different.

 

[Osamede]

Wow, so much hate towards him. Reason being, he's right. Smartphones as we know them have become commoditized. It's happened at a way quicker pace than I think anyone had thought it would. I mean look at it. Year after year, the biggest things that get hashed out is who has the better screen and camera. That's not innovation, that's evolution. A full screen no button iPhone isn't really innovative either. It's the most practical next step, so with any additional biometric sensors. Set your apple bias aside, and look at what they've shown off the last two to three years and it reminds of keynotes before the iPhone, you know when they talked about macs. Things are slowing down in the innovation.

If you don't believe me, ask yourself why Tim has gone full steam services. Smartphone market isn't fully saturated but it's getting close, at least in the large growth rate. For the most part it's going to be people leave android to iOS, and vise versa. Back and forth.

Truth is, Apple currently doesn't have a next that we can clearly see. iPad is hardly a next, it's a niche. Same goes with the apple watch. Wearables in general haven't taken off as much as people thought they would.

I'm not saying Apple's doomed but let's face it, the iPhone is nearing it's peak of "innovation". If you count faster speeds, better camera, or better display as innovative, then our definitions of innovation are then very very different.

To be fair, yes, it suggests bad judgement. Or at least a willingess to self deceive. In this case, his comments are absurd, as it is obvious that the "smartphone" will replace the PC/laptop in the end. And that's far from done yet.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

Apple should just acquire tesla, promote Elon to CEO and be done with it.

Then we would have the exact opposite of Cook, which wouldn't work either.

 

[cableguy84]

Cook out

 

[BaldiMac]

Wow, so much hate towards him. Reason being, he's right. Smartphones as we know them have become commoditized. It's happened at a way quicker pace than I think anyone had thought it would.

People have been saying that the smartphone market has been commoditized since the iPhone was announced. Not any more true now than it was then. The premium price Apple earns on the iPhone proves that.

 

[hippielover]

Yes, we know what a modern smartphone looks like and how it works.

Saying there is no more innovation in the space is ludicrous. Here are a few areas where there is a ton of innovation.

• Battery Technology (weeks on a charge, organic cells)
• Camera Tech (DoF, Color, resolution, white noise)
• VR / AR
• Digital Assistants (We're not even close to samantha from her yet)
• iPhone as the only computer you need. just keep a keyboard, mouse & monitor at your office & home and move the iPhone between them
• CPU speeds
• RAM miniaturization
• 1 terabytes on a smart phone
• Multi-users on phones or tablets
• integrated fingerprint sensors on the LCD scree itself
• Completely eliminating the wallet
• Eliminating the need for house & car keys
• embedding a lot of the functions in our own bodies (the watch is step 1 to having computer abilities connected to our skin)
• Wireless charging or the complete elimination of needing a lightning port at all
• Wireless cell data that is just as fast as your home cable connection

Over the next 15 years, a lot of this will come true and Apple is spending billions to make sure the iPhone is that. Apple may fail but to say the age of smartphone is behind us from a supposed technology person is laughable.

Dream on