Predict the 2019 Oscars (February 2020)

[swiftaw]

Contest results

Doctor Q and swiftaw tied for 1st place this year, with 19 correct predictions each.

D.T. came out in 3rd place, with 14 correct predictions.

All three contestants pegged 1917 for Best Picture instead of winner Parasite. The same problem for Sound Editing, where they picked 1917 and the winner was Ford v Ferrari. And all three chose a director other than winner Bong Joon Ho.

Doctor Q also missed Animated Feature Film and Film Editing, while swiftaw also missed Production Design and Documentary Feature.

D.T. did better on those four, correctly predicting 3 of the 4: Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Production Design.

The only award that one of our contestants correctly predicted while both others got it wrong was for Film Editing, where only swiftaw made the correct choice (Ford v Ferrari).

In a stunning loss, Mrs. Q lost to Doctor Q, predicting 17 of the 24 awards.

* * *

Some movie statistics:

16 movies won at least one Oscar.

Number of non-English movies that won Best Picture before today: 0
Number of non-English movies that won Best Picture as of today: 1
Chughahabnida! (Congratulations!)

Movies winning more than one Oscar:

Parasite (4 out of 6 nominations)​

1917 (3 out of 10 nominations)​

Ford v Ferrari (2 out of 4 nominations)​

Joker (2 out of 11 nominations)​

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (2 out of 10 nominations)​

​

Movies with the most losing nominations:

The Irishman (lost 10 out of 10)​

Joker (lost 9 out of 11)​

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (lost 8 out of 10)​

1917 (lost 7 out of 9)​

Jojo Rabbit (lost 5 out of 6)​

Little Women (lost 5 out of 6)​

Marriage Story (lost 5 out of 6)​

​

Shut out despite multiple nominations:

The Irishman (10 nominations)​

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (3 nominations)​

The Two Popes (3 nominations)​

Harriet (2 nominations)​

Honeyland (2 nominations)​

Pain and Glory (2 nominations)​

​

Yay, my streak continues I think I have had at least a share of the lead every year I've entered since 2011 (not sure what I was doing in 2014).

I thought I was doomed when Parasite started cleaning up (I had a big night for 1917) but it looks like no-one else saw that coming either.

 

[D.T.]

That was fun, thanks again to @Doctor Q !

Several "no surprise" wins, neat to see F vs. F win a few technical awards over 1917, it had some fantastic sound/editing work, and I almost picked it as kind of "upset", but I thought 1917 had too much momentum.

I'm sure everyone is a bit surprised that Parasite not only won outside of its sort of primary/expected category, but took all the major awards of the night.

 

[Peace]

I knew all the winners just decided to not make a prediction.

**cough**

 

[Doctor Q]

I knew all the winners just decided to not make a prediction.

**cough**

It's true that you and jkcerda had no incorrect predictions!

 

[Huntn]

What was with Tom Hanks? His announcement about the new Movie Museum was supposed to be humorous, and evoked a couple of laughs, but his delivery was "I'm mad" and he did a lousy job of acting if he was trying to act like he was happy.

 

[MacNut]

What was with Tom Hanks? His announcement about the new Movie Museum was supposed to be humorous, and evoked a couple of laughs, but his delivery was "I'm mad" and he did a lousy job of acting if he was trying to act like he was happy.

I think that museum is a bit of a sore subject. It was supposed to open in 2017.

 

[Doctor Q]

The number of viewers of the Oscar telecast has decreased each year since Ellen DeGeneres hosted in 2014, with a little blip last year for the first no-host show.

Click for bigger image.



Data source

 

[Rogifan]

The number of viewers of the Oscar telecast has decreased each year since Ellen DeGeneres hosted in 2014, with a little blip last year for the first no-host show.

Click for bigger image.

View attachment 893547

Data source

I didn’t think it was very good. That opening number was weird. As was Eminem. Bring Ellen back. She’s funny and would probably stay away from politics.

 

[MacNut]

I didn’t think it was very good. That opening number was weird. As was Eminem. Bring Ellen back. She’s funny and would probably stay away from politics.

There will definitely be a host next year. Bring back Billy Crystal.

 

[rhett7660]

I didn’t think it was very good. That opening number was weird. As was Eminem. Bring Ellen back. She’s funny and would probably stay away from politics.

Somehow, I don't see that happening for any host right now...

 

[Huntn]

I didn’t think it was very good. That opening number was weird. As was Eminem. Bring Ellen back. She’s funny and would probably stay away from politics.

There will definitely be a host next year. Bring back Billy Crystal.

Just keep in mind that the artistic decisions are separate from a host’s performance so the same critiques could still exist. I agree that a good host can add to the entertainment, but I’m ok without having one because it keeps the pace up. Didn't it still run over? A host would have made it longer.
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Somehow, I don't see that happening for any host right now...

Hollywood loves pinging conservatives/republicans and with Trump even more so.

 

[ItsNotaTumor]

meh ceremony. I didn't like the opening number because, at its core, the dancing was all based around costumes and movies that didn't get nominated. BAD. they need to stop doing opening numbers like that. It'd be better to have a montage and some of the scores highlighted from the start, then a host/quasi-host bit. I wasn't big on the Eminem performance but I'm OK with highlighting SOMETHING, ANYTHING about the craft of filmmaking. Showing the impact of how things are created is what I really miss from the show that I loved as a kid. only the screenplay segments did this

BUT as far as the winners... Parasite taking 4 out of 6 was phenomenal. Much deserved. Bong Joon-ho is an immense talent and this will do great things for the world of cinema. Obviously, the nominations could have been better, but even with different nominees, Parasite probably still takes the big prize. It is a much loved film in and out of the industry. Here's to next year... just hoping more exciting films like this can shine as well.

 

[Huntn]

meh ceremony. I didn't like the opening number because, at its core, the dancing was all based around costumes and movies that didn't get nominated. BAD. they need to stop doing opening numbers like that. It'd be better to have a montage and some of the scores highlighted from the start, then a host/quasi-host bit. I wasn't big on the Eminem performance but I'm OK with highlighting SOMETHING, ANYTHING about the craft of filmmaking. Showing the impact of how things are created is what I really miss from the show that I loved as a kid. only the screenplay segments did this

BUT as far as the winners... Parasite taking 4 out of 6 was phenomenal. Much deserved. Bong Joon-ho is an immense talent and this will do great things for the world of cinema. Obviously, the nominations could have been better, but even with different nominees, Parasite probably still takes the big prize. It is a much loved film in and out of the industry. Here's to next year... just hoping more exciting films like this can shine as well.

I still think that 10 films nominated for Best Picture is overkill.

 

[MikeStrutter]

imho Parasite is a much better story than 1917, 1917 won where it definitely shined in the filming and fx categories. And imho Parasite deserved to win, but I think it did for the wrong reason.

 

[Huntn]

I seriously doubt most people watched Parasite, but after the nominations came out the Diversity Card started getting waved The Golden Globe Favourite 1917 was going to get reeled in as there was nothing else the woke liberals could vote for apart from Parasite.

That said imho Parasite is a much better story than 1917, 1917 won where it definitely shined in the filming and fx categories. And imho Parasite deserved to win, but I think it did for the wrong reason.

1917 is on my list to watch, and I hope there is a good story told amidst WWI. Thinking of it reminded me of the description included in the Century Trilogy of a 5 year boondoggle that did not have to happen (humans!) and then I had a hankering to watch The Blue Max (1966), which I will do so soon.

 

[MikeStrutter]

1917 is on my list to watch, and I hope there is a good story told amidst WWI. Thinking of it reminded me of the description included in the Century Trilogy of a 5 year boondoggle that did not have to happen (humans!) and then I had a hankering to watch The Blue Max (1966), which I will do so soon.

its a simple story of getting from a to b, how its filmed and acted is very very good.

 

[ItsNotaTumor]

...

Parasite won the Palme D'or, released early in the "Awards" film season and has made $30 mil in the US alone, was made by a loved filmmaker, and won the SAG Ensemble with a standing ovation right when Oscar voters were getting ready to submit their ballots. It's a perfect storm for an uncharacteristic winner to capitalize on its reputation in a season of mostly period piece nominees. People saw the movie - they saw 1917 - but I think pretty much everyone can agree that 1917 didn't have that long game that Parasite built. Additionally, Best Picture is a ranked choice vote- Parasite is the kind of movie that likely had the most 1/2/3 votes, rather than just being some peoples favorite and irrelevant to others.

 

[MikeStrutter]

Parasite won the Palme D'or, released early in the "Awards" film season and has made $30 mil in the US alone, was made by a loved filmmaker, and won the SAG Ensemble with a standing ovation right when Oscar voters were getting ready to submit their ballots. It's a perfect storm for an uncharacteristic winner to capitalize on its reputation in a season of mostly period piece nominees. People saw the movie - they saw 1917 - but I think pretty much everyone can agree that 1917 didn't have that long game that Parasite built. Additionally, Best Picture is a ranked choice vote- Parasite is the kind of movie that likely had the most 1/2/3 votes, rather than just being some peoples favorite and irrelevant to others.

while I agree with the sentiment, its obvious that what i said about Diversity brought it alot of votes, and don't kid yourself even James corden made jokes about alot of people not watching it.

If you think alot of these elites can be bothered watching a Korean film you are not living in reality.

Just like they cant be bothered watching many of the documentaries.

 

[Doctor Q]

I have a feeling that Jennifer Lopez' lack of a nomination had more to do with the type of movie she was in (i.e., not the type of film that's usually honored) rather than her ethnicity. But we can't be sure.

The real problem with the overly white/male awards starts with which movies by which people get made in the first place, and which have the money behind them. Movies financed by Netflix and others outside the studio system are starting to help. So will a generational shift.

 

[ItsNotaTumor]

while I agree with the sentiment, its obvious that what i said about Diversity brought it alot of votes, and don't kid yourself even James corden made jokes about alot of people not watching it.

If you think alot of these elites can be bothered watching a Korean film you are not living in reality.

Just like they cant be bothered watching many of the documentaries.

Everyday people not watching the show and not being able to catch or wanting to watch all the films nominated has nothing to do with the actual voters. You can cry DIVERSITY! all day, but at the same time, there's too much love in the room for this movie to say that any DIVERSITY! votes were the true reason this won.
I think you forget that a lot of people in the film industry who are members of the academy came from nothing, and not everyone is an ELITE banking $20 mil a picture for acting- plus industry working folks who don't go in front of the camera are doing everyday jobs. Editors, writers, production crew, etc. Thousands and thousands of people getting the work done and voting. There are people like Brad Pitt who came from nothing, and sure, there's the inherent nepotism (Laura Dern), but there are working people regardless.
It is also ridiculous to say that a movie that made $36 million domestic (even more internationally and domestically more money than Jojo Rabbit), that ended up on hundreds of Best of the Year lists, racked up 198 critics and other award show wins... only did so because of Diversity!
I can only assume you haven't seen the movie if you're saying things like this.

 

[MikeStrutter]

You can assume what you like i don't care respect others opinions, it's plainly obvious when it comes to this movie you can't.