Qualcomm Expects Apple Modem Revenue to Drop Faster Than Expected

[MacRumors]

Qualcomm expects its Apple revenue to decline faster than it previously anticipated, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told Reuters in an interview following the company's earnings call for the third fiscal quarter of 2026.

Amon chalked up the loss to supply constraints, which will reduce the share of Qualcomm components used in the next iPhone launch well below its earlier 20 percent estimate. Qualcomm expects the drop in Apple revenue to start in the fourth quarter.

Qualcomm is raising its prices starting September 1 to improve its margin because of increasing costs across the supply chain. "We're just passing through big cost increases that we have," said Amon.

In fiscal 2027, Qualcomm is expecting most of its chip sales to come from categories other than smartphones, and growth in its data center business will replace the Apple-related revenue it collected in fiscal 2026.

Apple developed its own modem chips, which have been used in the iPhone 16e, iPhone 17e, and iPhone Air. Rumors suggest Apple could transition to using more of its own chips starting with the iPhone 18 lineup. Apple is working on a C2 modem chip rumored to deliver faster speeds and better power efficiency than Qualcomm modems.

Apple and Qualcomm have a patent licensing agreement that lasts through March 2027, and it is not clear if Apple will extend it again or move to using its own modem chips across its entire product lineup.

Article Link: Qualcomm Expects Apple Modem Revenue to Drop Faster Than Expected

 

[jlc1978]

Would not surprise me if Apple went all in on its own modems. That is in keeping with their philosophy of controlling development on their timeline, much like they do with ARM chips.

 

[HQuest]

Would not surprise me if Apple went all in on its own modems. That is in keeping with their philosophy of controlling development on their timeline, much like they do with ARM chips.

More than just development on their timeline, controlling the integration with the remaining device and software to do what they want versus what a manufacturer offers.

 

[jlc1978]

More than just development on their timeline, controlling the integration with the remaining device and software to do what they want versus what a manufacturer offers.

Exactly. They control the whole process and can tightly integrate the software and hardware development to produce better products.

 

[Biro]

Would not surprise me if Apple went all in on its own modems. That is in keeping with their philosophy of controlling development on their timeline, much like they do with ARM chips.

I don’t think there is any doubt that is the goal. The question is, will the C2 modem have full mmWave functionality in time for the iPhone 18 series? Existing rumors already have the C2 going to markets outside the U.S. because it does not… and phones bound for the U.S. getting another year of Qualcomm chips with mmWave.

 

[jamescharley22]

I really don’t understand the rumors that say Apple is going to use Qualcomm in their domestic-model iPhones and C2 internationally… could someone shine a light on that beyond “a rumor said,” because it makes no sense. Maybe I’m missing something?

 

[Walshy24]

I really don’t understand the rumors that say Apple is going to use Qualcomm in their domestic-model iPhones and C2 internationally… could someone shine a light on that beyond “a rumor said,” because it makes no sense. Maybe I’m missing something?

Apple C modems currently are only Sub-6 and have no mmWave capabilities. Countries outside of the US have not adopted mmWave infrastructure. It’s no point to use Qualcomm model outside the US. Why pay fees for a technology people have no access to.

 

[throAU]

Would not surprise me if Apple went all in on its own modems. That is in keeping with their philosophy of controlling development on their timeline, much like they do with ARM chips.

Given they now have a tested design it makes zero sense to use Qualcomm for this any more.

 

[Karma*Police]

Exactly. They control the whole process and can tightly integrate the software and hardware development to produce better products.

Except when it comes to cutting-edge technology like AI 😉

 

[svish]

Not surprising. Only a matter of time before all devices will be using Apple modem.

 

[Ethrem]

I'm personally waiting to see if the modem is confirmed to be the same Qualcomm X80 in the 18 series because if it is, that makes upgrading from my 17 Pro Max an easy skip.

Countries outside of the US have not adopted mmWave infrastructure.

Japan, South Korea, China, and Australia would like a word.

 

[throAU]

Except when it comes to cutting-edge technology like AI 😉

Apple is getting the benefit of other's models without spending hundreds of billions on building them at a loss.

 

[racerhomie]

Except when it comes to cutting-edge technology like AI 😉

LLMs are commodities. A is A on both Claude and Gemini

 

[Gioser]

Except when it comes to cutting-edge technology like AI 😉

Even if Apple uses Gemini for some Siri AI features, that does not mean Siri is simply "Gemini with an Apple logo."

Just look at what happened with Microsoft. Copilot started by using OpenAI's GPT models, so the foundation was the same technology behind ChatGPT. But over the years, Microsoft continued improving it, adding its own systems and developing more of its own AI technologies. Today, Copilot is not just ChatGPT with a different name.

If you ask Copilot itself, it often states that its knowledge goes up to June 2024, but at the same time it can also use web information and Microsoft services, so it is not relying only on the original model.

Samsung is following a similar path. Galaxy AI uses Gemini for some features, but Samsung is also developing and integrating its own AI technologies. Nobody would say Galaxy AI is simply "Gemini with a Samsung logo."

In the AI world, it is normal to start from existing technology, use it as a foundation, and then build your own system on top of it. Apple can do the same: use Gemini where it makes sense, while continuing to develop its own AI with its own models and technologies.

 

[racerhomie]

Even if Apple uses Gemini for some Siri AI features, that does not mean Siri is simply "Gemini with an Apple logo."

Just look at what happened with Microsoft. Copilot started by using OpenAI's GPT models, so the foundation was the same technology behind ChatGPT. But over the years, Microsoft continued improving it, adding its own systems and developing more of its own AI technologies. Today, Copilot is not just ChatGPT with a different name.

If you ask Copilot itself, it often states that its knowledge goes up to June 2024, but at the same time it can also use web information and Microsoft services, so it is not relying only on the original model.

Samsung is following a similar path. Galaxy AI uses Gemini for some features, but Samsung is also developing and integrating its own AI technologies. Nobody would say Galaxy AI is simply "Gemini with a Samsung logo."

In the AI world, it is normal to start from existing technology, use it as a foundation, and then build your own system on top of it. Apple can do the same: use Gemini where it makes sense, while continuing to develop its own AI with its own models and technologies.

Plus Apple distilled the Gemini models and made it their own. Like Deepseek and Chinese models do with ChatGPT and Claude. It’s a different product entirely

 

[Walshy24]

I'm personally waiting to see if the modem is confirmed to be the same Qualcomm X80 in the 18 series because if it is, that makes upgrading from my 17 Pro Max an easy skip.

Japan, South Korea, China, and Australia would like a word.

South Korea was the pioneer of mmWave and yet they revoked mmWave licenses from major carriers because they refused to spend money on the infrastructure. US is the only country that has mmWave equipped phones because the carriers are forcing Apple to sell them. That’s why iPhone 17s cost $829 unlocked instead of $799 like everywhere else in the world. You are paying for that mmWave module. However when you buy a phone with a supported carrier they waive the $30. 5G marketing was so ridiculous in the US at one point screen protectors and cases had 5G-enabled on the packaging.

 

[BeatCrazy]

That’s why iPhone 17s cost $829 unlocked instead of $799 like everywhere else in the world. You are paying for that mmWave module. However when you buy a phone with a supported carrier they waive the $30. 5G marketing was so ridiculous in the US at one point screen protectors and cases had 5G-enabled on the packaging.

people just be making stuff up these days.

 

[EuropaAeterna]

LLMs are commodities. A is A on both Claude and Gemini

lol imagine believing that

 

[racerhomie]

lol imagine believing that

You do know that the Chinese LLMs all distill data from ChatGPT. The frontier models from the major providers are getting similar. Except in specialty fields like Claude Code & Codex

 

[Biro]

I'm personally waiting to see if the modem is confirmed to be the same Qualcomm X80 in the 18 series because if it is, that makes upgrading from my 17 Pro Max an easy skip.

Japan, South Korea, China, and Australia would like a word.

That exact rumor is among the reasons I moved from an iPhone 16 Plus to an iPhone 17 Pro a few weeks ago. I’m content sitting through the iPhone 18 cycle.

 

[jamescharley22]

Apple C modems currently are only Sub-6 and have no mmWave capabilities. Countries outside of the US have not adopted mmWave infrastructure. It’s no point to use Qualcomm model outside the US. Why pay fees for a technology people have no access to.

How on Earth… e-e did I miss this the entire time? Well mostly because I haven’t lived in, regularly traveled to, or even visited any areas with mmWave so I’ve never experienced the lack of, but still! I don’t know what lead me to think C1X supported mmWave. Weird. Thank you for catching me up to speed! C’mon C2/X!!!

 

[cdsapplefan]

I really don’t understand the rumors that say Apple is going to use Qualcomm in their domestic-model iPhones and C2 internationally… could someone shine a light on that beyond “a rumor said,” because it makes no sense. Maybe I’m missing something?

Probably because the new C2 modem doesn’t have the capability to do mmWave yet and Verizon has that big feature in the US 🇺🇸 mmWave is not a big thing overseas Internationally.

The C2 is rumored to be in the iPhone Ultra Fold though, so if you want the C2 power efficiency you’ll have to get the iPhone Ultra. This is all speculation until Apple 🍎 officially announces the new C2 modem.

 

[cdsapplefan]

Would not surprise me if Apple went all in on its own modems. That is in keeping with their philosophy of controlling development on their timeline, much like they do with ARM chips.

Would not surprise me if Apple 🍎 created their own cell phone network that is more reliable and faster than the current providers.

Steve Jobs wanted his own cell phone network.

Apple 🍎 has trillions to make it happen.

 

[SactoGuy18]

I do think Apple may offer mmWave support starting with the 20th Anniversary iPhone, probably with a new radio modem chip named C3.

 

[cdsapplefan]

I do think Apple may offer mmWave support starting with the 20th Anniversary iPhone, probably with a new radio modem chip named C3.

Apple 🍎 could ditch mmWave if they wanted to as only Verizon supports it mainly.