Qualcomm Expects Apple Modem Revenue to Drop Faster Than Expected

[name99]

The thing is, it’s ultimately overkill for sending text messages, scrolling past TikTok silly videos and sending gif memes through WhatsApp… what most people use technology and networks for, even during working hours.

I wouldn’t mind forfeiting mmWave in exchange of better battery life instead.

No-one's "forfeiting" mmWave. Apple's Prometheus/C3 modem scheduled for 2027 is supposed to have mmWave.

The only issue is whether Apple will (temporarily, for the set of models that ship between Sep 2026 and "sometimes in 2027") ship a high end US phone w/o mmWave.

And the reason this seems plausible is that QC have already told us that they expect to sell many fewer modems to Apple than they were predicting just a few months ago.

 

[Biro]

The only issue is whether Apple will (temporarily, for the set of models that ship between Sep 2026 and "sometimes in 2027") ship a high end US phone w/o mmWave.

And the reason this seems plausible is that QC have already told us that they expect to sell many fewer modems to Apple than they were predicting just a few months ago.

I have no inside information. But, to me, the answer is clearly “no.” QC expects to sell many fewer modems to Apple because C2 modems will go in many iPhone 18 family devices sold outside the U.S. Not because Apple will sell phones (with the likely exception of the Air/Air 2 and e models) without mmWave in the U.S. But that’s just me.

 

[ksec]

but they would certainly notice the n77 congestion were they to suddenly lose access to it.

Once again why do you insist on putting words in my mouth? I've defended mmWave on multiple occasions.

He is just pissed people are looking down at mmWave. And despite what MR wants for the past 6 now looking close to 7 years. There is only one network in the world deployed mmWave for Mobile.

 

[Ethrem]

He is just pissed people are looking down at mmWave. And despite what MR wants for the past 6 now looking close to 7 years. There is only one network in the world deployed mmWave for Mobile.

I'm not pissed about anything. You guys are arguing that Verizon will let Apple get away with axing mmWave and I'm saying it's not going to happen. Not on the flagships.

 

[jlc1978]

I'm not pissed about anything. You guys are arguing that Verizon will let Apple get away with axing mmWave and I'm saying it's not going to happen. Not on the flagships.

No one but Apple/VZW knows what may happen. If Apple were to decide against mmWave in the next iPhones, for whatever reason, I'm pretty sure they are talking to VZW. VZW may decide a year without mmWave in iPhones is acceptable, given the usage patterns of their users, or may not and pressure Apple to delay using their modem chips until they incorporate mmWave. Alternatively, VZW may decide mmWave is on the way out anyway and just not care if iPhones have it. Apple could just include it in US phones, it's not like they don't have region specific devices already.

 

[Ethrem]

No one but Apple/VZW knows what may happen. If Apple were to decide against mmWave in the next iPhones, for whatever reason, I'm pretty sure they are talking to VZW. VZW may decide a year without mmWave in iPhones is acceptable, given the usage patterns of their users, or may not and pressure Apple to delay using their modem chips until they incorporate mmWave. Alternatively, VZW may decide mmWave is on the way out anyway and just not care if iPhones have it. Apple could just include it in US phones, it's not like they don't have region specific devices already.

We already know the answer.

iPhone 18 Pro Modem Leaks: 2 Chips, 1 Big Trade-Off - Memeburn

Apple's iPhone 18 Pro ships with two different modems in 2026 — Qualcomm in the US, Apple C2 everywhere else. Here's what this unusual split means.

memeburn.com

 

[jlc1978]

We already know the answer.

iPhone 18 Pro Modem Leaks: 2 Chips, 1 Big Trade-Off - Memeburn

Apple's iPhone 18 Pro ships with two different modems in 2026 — Qualcomm in the US, Apple C2 everywhere else. Here's what this unusual split means.

memeburn.com

Possibly, but that assumes the leaked documents accurately reflect what will be shipped, and it appears the foldable iPhone will use Apple's chips, per TFA. We'll know for sure when the next iPones are released, and I suspect mmWave will be in US models.

Long term? If Apple doesn't extend the licensing deal and can't get mmWave in later chips, it may go away.

 

[name99]

We already know the answer.

iPhone 18 Pro Modem Leaks: 2 Chips, 1 Big Trade-Off - Memeburn

Apple's iPhone 18 Pro ships with two different modems in 2026 — Qualcomm in the US, Apple C2 everywhere else. Here's what this unusual split means.

memeburn.com

That was July 4.
QC call was July 29.

THAT IS THE ENTIRE D*** POINT. That people had one expectation in mind, but the QC call implies something different.

 

[Ethrem]

That was July 4.
QC call was July 29.

THAT IS THE ENTIRE D*** POINT. That people had one expectation in mind, but the QC call implies something different.

We don't have long until we see who's right.

 

[throAU]

Apple is getting the benefit of other's models without spending hundreds of billions on building them at a loss.

Latest I heard is that they're paying 100M to get access to gemini (or likely license a custom version of the model to run on their own infra) for Siri.

Gemini 4 reportedly cost > 1B to train. And each new iteration of these models cost somewhere between 2x to 10x the prior generation. Plus apple are presumably indemnified against any copyright infringement as part of the licensing agreement.

Bargain.

 

[visualseed]

Given they now have a tested design it makes zero sense to use Qualcomm for this any more.

Apple has gone even further. After being slapped with huge license fees from Qualcomm and Broadcom, they focused on building a strong patent portfolio, filing over 1,000 Wi-Fi 7 and 6G patents to help offset future licensing fees for wireless technology.

 

[jlc1978]

a strong patent portfolio, filing over 1,000 Wi-Fi 7 and 6G patents to help offset future licensing fees for wireless technology.

No doubt they will use those if a company claims they violated their patents with the "Ok, let me look through our thousands of patents to see which ones you violate or can invalidate yours; unless of course you want to settle with a cross licensing agreement instead of demanding payment ..."

 

[visualseed]

No doubt they will use those if a company claims they violated their patents with the "Ok, let me look through our thousands of patents to see which ones you violate or can invalidate yours; unless of course you want to settle with a cross licensing agreement instead of demanding payment ..."

They have joined all the key wireless standards bodies, committees, and aliances. Some patents will be cross-licensed, while others will be designated as Standard Essential Patents (SEPs), generating licensing revenue, albeit at FRAND rates, from all users of the technology. And it's not just the future stuff, they picked up 17,000 patents when they bought Intel's modem business.

 

[jlc1978]

They have joined all the key wireless standards bodies, committees, and aliances. Some patents will be cross-licensed, while others will be designated as Standard Essential Patents (SEPs), generating licensing revenue, albeit at FRAND rates, from all users of the technology. And it's not just the future stuff, they picked up 17,000 patents when they bought Intel's modem business.

Although those patents provide protection from a patent troll.