I saw a good article on cult of Mac and how poorly the Apple Watch performed without the iPhone along for the ride. I calibrated a bunch of times but run or walk the same route so the watch by itself has been accurate. When I do intervals with more pronounced arm movements it seems to start to be off. I normally barely move my arms when I run and it seems accurate.
I would never trust the Apple Watch for serious running though.
You have to calibrate with different pace or styles of running. That includes your arm movement. Stride and arm movement belongs together.
I don't know how you think calibration works. Apple states to do different paces to get better accuracy. I did it with 6'/km down to 4:30'/km and don't have issues with paces in between those marks. I always run the same route and got always good accuracy.
The arm movement most likely is the culprit in your case because that is what causes my accuracy to drop whenever I do uphill running. Fortunately it compensates a little when going downhill but yes I assume the arm movement is taken into equation for calculating stride length. When you look at professional runners and their arm movements I would say it is correlating to their stride and running style.
The Apple Watch reads the accelerometer to learn your arm movement that correlates to your stride. The GPS from the iPhone the gives the needed path length to do the rest of the math.
That is - in my eyes - why the reading is off for some runners that have inconsistent arm movement for different velocities.