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Report: Apple Chose to Develop Apple Car Alone to Avoid Further Delays, Currently Selecting Suppliers
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Honestly, some of the replies to my post. I have not been posting on Macrumors for that long really, in comparison with some people. What I have learnt though is that some people have absolutely no sense of humour whatsoever. I think I triggered some bots!
Honestly, Tesla's FSD Beta is just amazing at this point. While it hasn't been perfect, the limited releases to a few select youtubers have worked fairly well for early preview betas. Anyone who actually paid attention to their AI Day event came away amazed, only a bunch of fools in the media thought the "robot" thing was the focus of the event.... where it was like 10 minutes at the end of a 2 hour self driving event.
Based on Sandy's tear down of the Ford Mach-E and driving with their lead engineer on Blue Cruise, and how much worse it was over the 5-year old autopilot features in Tesla.... I would say it is true, most manufacturers can't pull it off anytime soon. People like to beat up on Tesla, but their unreleased work is lightyears ahead of the other auto manufacturers. Its kind of hard to compare to companies like Waymo since they rely on heavily mapped geofenced areas at the moment, they do well within those areas but aren't even allowed to be used outside.
(And since people always like to reference Teslas hitting semi's, that was Tesla autopilot running on MobileEye... that problematic first gen design ended in 2016 before Tesla started building it completely in-house. It seems to be the one the most people like to point to for Tesla's abilities. And the emergency vehicle crashes, like all automatic cruise controls, they ignore static objects above a certain speed so the car doesn't brake for a bridge or a sign at highway speeds... maybe selling cars to someone should require an IQ test, there are a ton of reasons you are supposed to keep your hands on the wheel and your eyes open for Level 1 autonomy)
Elon has been talking up FSD Beta 10.0 for 3 weeks, and has been claiming it will be out tomorrow for those FSD Beta testers.... I'm looking forward to see if its a huge improvement or not.
Apple has been developing this car idea for years, it’s not just throwing a turd against the wall to see if it sticks situation. If they launch one it will be because it’s not only sellable but highly profitable.
for those comparing Teslas slow start to apple getting into the industry just remember Tesla went from an idea with no production history at all to making and servicing a product. Apple has been doing that for decades and will likely have its suppliers and manufactures like ducks in a row if they decide to proceed. The only real question will of course be the economy of scale in relation to production durability for all the new components and thats something there’s no way to guarantee until you produce them.
and then finally for those concerned for the few billion apple might lose if this project fails or never really sees the light of day, that’s what a low fraction of a quarterly profit statement? For apple to keep up its escalating valuations it needs to constantly seek new profit streams and this is a great one if they are able to get something good together.
for those comparing Teslas slow start to apple getting into the industry just remember Tesla went from an idea with no production history at all to making and servicing a product. Apple has been doing that for decades and will likely have its suppliers and manufactures like ducks in a row if they decide to proceed. The only real question will of course be the economy of scale in relation to production durability for all the new components and thats something there’s no way to guarantee until you produce them.
and then finally for those concerned for the few billion apple might lose if this project fails or never really sees the light of day, that’s what a low fraction of a quarterly profit statement? For apple to keep up its escalating valuations it needs to constantly seek new profit streams and this is a great one if they are able to get something good together.
I wonder what parts costs will be like? Apple charges more for a set of 4 mac pro wheels than I recently paid for 4 new 18" tires on my car. Tesla's high parts and repair costs have resulted in their cars being very expensive to insure, nearly offsetting any savings in operating costs vs. gas models of similar size.
I agree. Obviously car companies are born, but Apple is a consumer electronics company (they used to be a computer company) and are trying to juggle phones, computers, tablets, video streaming services, audio streaming services, accessories and are now trying to be an auto company. Auto companies do 1 thing: they make autos. Or at least that's what they start with and branch out (Honda, for example, but the other products all revolve around engine manufacturing).
I really don't see Apple selling me a $30,000+ car when they have 0 experience in auto manufacturing. It takes quite a bit of time to be somewhat successful. Example: Tesla started almost 20 years ago in 2003 and really has only gotten fairly popular since 2015.
Apple may not lose a lot of money, but my feeling is they will fail to be successful at selling their cars.
in 15 years I think it could aviation with the iPlane. Apple will buy out a failing airline company.
Huh? Apple's plans have changed multiple times by all reports. How is that not just throwing a turd against the wall every few months and seeing what sticks?
You're forgetting that the danger of that is not only in the air, but to people on the ground. I'd rather there would be a pilot(s) on cargo flights to take over in case of mechanical or other technical failure. You can design all the AI in the world, still won't beat a human brain.
Apple wants to control the entire user experience. I honestly thought the TV would’ve been the thing they did as that would complete the home (HomeKit) but it looks like they would be able to reach more users by allowing other brands to use AirPlay and Apple TV app on all the TVs.
This is exactly why I find it hard to believe they are making a car. Not only is it difficult and expensive to produce but being able to provide maintenance is another set of challenges. CarPlay integration would’ve been really good if they also worked with standards to control door locks, window operation, etc…. How cool would it be to operate certain features from your phone or from the cars display?
I'm certainly not forgetting that. AIs will take over when they prove to be safer than humans. Aircraft AIs are already exceptionally good pilots. In fact, AI is preferred when weather conditions make visibility bad.
I do think the transfer will be gradual, with humans becoming more and more of a backup to the computers.
I first saw/heard of Elon Musk many many years ago when I saw a piece on 60 minutes about this new company, SpaceX. Really likable.
Then I saw another on 60 minutes a few years later about this car company that he has, Tesla.
He’s certainly changed over the years, at least his public persona, and he certainly strikes me as much more of a “businessman” than he used to be, but you can’t argue with his results and what he’s doing/going to do for the world.
He seems like he’s going to turn out to be one of the true originals/innovators of our time. If Apple had a chance to purchase his company and bring him into the fold, they certainly made a very very big mistake.
Then I saw another on 60 minutes a few years later about this car company that he has, Tesla.
He’s certainly changed over the years, at least his public persona, and he certainly strikes me as much more of a “businessman” than he used to be, but you can’t argue with his results and what he’s doing/going to do for the world.
He seems like he’s going to turn out to be one of the true originals/innovators of our time. If Apple had a chance to purchase his company and bring him into the fold, they certainly made a very very big mistake.
Yeah, I'd like to see AI do what Sully did and analyze the situation that quickly after the bird strike and landed in the Hudson River. Yeah, might happen some day. But there have been some pretty amazing pilots with amazing skills that have saved many lives during mechanical failures.
And yes, probably more pilot error have contributed to more crashes, hehe...
I think AI can probably take over the vast majority of things, but a human will always have to be there as a backup.
Tesla and others accomplished the task with fewer resources than Apple. All comes down to how dedicated Apple is to an EV. Hopefully more dedicated than their home automation and speaker divisions.
Say what you like but Apple could very well break into the automotive market and be very successful at it. I honestly think Apple has the resources to do it. Other startups that have failed were mostly due to lack of financial resources. People seem to regret dismissing Apple when it comes to breaking into new markets, much like what you are doing.
Honda broke into the Aviation market and are quite successful. Airplanes are one of the most complex things to build. Would you have imagined that a car manufacturer, that has never built anything related to aviation, manages to build a thriving aviation sub-division out of a concept drawn on a piece of paper. Well that is what Honda did.
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You're kidding? They canceled LTPO screens last year because they couldn't get enough control ICs and they've already announced this year in earnings calls that there would be component supply problems in Q3/Q4. They may be hogging TSMC for SoCs but that's not all, by far, that goes into a phone/laptop/ipad. There's still an industry wide shortage for many other discrete ICs (mostly on 28nm-130nm).
The reason why it's not a worry is that the mass production of a car would still be years away and for example 28nm factories are being built now so they can hope the capacity will bounce back before then.
I mean, sure, what Sully did was remarkable. And Germanwings Flight 9525 was deliberately flown into the ground by a suicidal pilot. These are extreme cases though. The real question is how to achieve the fewest fatalities. And, of course, airlines will consider cost/risk.
I'm not sure backup pilots are a viable long-term option (if AI piloting takes off). How prepared is a pilot going to be if they only are almost never needed? I know that I couldn't pay attention as a backup driver in my car if the AI was normally in control. After an hour, my brain would be elsewhere. At best, I would be ready to deal with problems after the AI parked itself on the side of the road. There is no way I'd be ready to grab the wheel for a split-second emergency.
Surprised Apple would want to get into car manufacturing they haven't a clue to the differences in engineering, government regulations, testing, and liability. Making something that can kill people is way different than a device that if it screws up or fails is just a major annoyance to the owner.
Unfortunately Mainland China needs the Korean foundries and will move on Taiwan soon (during the Biden admin) and will shut out everyone else.
As long as all the investment is in America but Apple will probably simply make someone somewhere else rich.