The AI bubble will collapse in a few years, maybe sooner. LLMs/GPTs are overhyped for what they offer, and if you follow the research consensus is building that for any further advances towards AGI we need a new fundamental technology shift that might take many years to be discovered.
Without question AI will be part of our lives in the future, but like the dotcom-bubble, things can become severely overvalued.
For Apple, maybe they're lucky that they are 'behind'.
Agree. I've been following and studying AI since I was an undergrade in the late 1970s
Even back in the day, there was this term called "Vanishing AI". It meant that when someone creates software that does something that seems to be intelligent, such as playing chess (well) or making medical diagnoses or whatever, then later we look inside and see it is not intelligent at all, but just a clever algorithm, the AI vanishes, and it becomes "just basic computer science."
When LLMs emerged, I was astounded at how well they worked. They seemed on the surface to act intelligently. But I knew how neural networks were trained and how they worked, and knew "thinking" would be impossible with that technology. But it certainly gives the illusion of it. The explanation is simple: Training is actually a search through a billion+ dimensional space for the best way to store 200 trillion tons of data in a 20 billion ton box. Then we know from information theory that the best way to compress data is to remove as much redundancy as possible, leaving only rules and procedures for regenerating it.
So the current LLM-based AI "vanishes" when we can explain it as simply an inevitable result of regularization and compression.
But this is not to say the current technology is not useful. Just as useful as other computer science.
What will the next big revolution be? If I knew, you all would know my name, I'd be famous. But I think the clues about how real (not artificial) intelligence works are "Brain Waves". Humans and Animals have these echo-cycles in their brains that pass through many filters, and when they stop, they say we are "brain dead". That SHOULD be a huge clue. I think our "awareness" is stored in the echo, not in any physical object.
Who to store data in an echo? In the 50s, there was a proposal to transmit data in a radio signal and bounce it off the Moon, and a receiver would collect the data and send it via a long cable to the transmitter. The data would cycle forever, and the storage media would be just empty space. So we know with certainty that information can be stored without the need for physical media. Real AI will work kind of. like that. Figure out the details, and you will be famous.