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The AI bubble will collapse in a few years, maybe sooner. LLMs/GPTs are overhyped for what they offer, and if you follow the research consensus is building that for any further advances towards AGI we need a new fundamental technology shift that might take many years to be discovered.

Without question AI will be part of our lives in the future, but like the dotcom-bubble, things can become severely overvalued.

For Apple, maybe they're lucky that they are 'behind'.

Agree. I've been following and studying AI since I was an undergrade in the late 1970s

Even back in the day, there was this term called "Vanishing AI". It meant that when someone creates software that does something that seems to be intelligent, such as playing chess (well) or making medical diagnoses or whatever, then later we look inside and see it is not intelligent at all, but just a clever algorithm, the AI vanishes, and it becomes "just basic computer science."

When LLMs emerged, I was astounded at how well they worked. They seemed on the surface to act intelligently. But I knew how neural networks were trained and how they worked, and knew "thinking" would be impossible with that technology. But it certainly gives the illusion of it. The explanation is simple: Training is actually a search through a billion+ dimensional space for the best way to store 200 trillion tons of data in a 20 billion ton box. Then we know from information theory that the best way to compress data is to remove as much redundancy as possible, leaving only rules and procedures for regenerating it.

So the current LLM-based AI "vanishes" when we can explain it as simply an inevitable result of regularization and compression.

But this is not to say the current technology is not useful. Just as useful as other computer science.

What will the next big revolution be? If I knew, you all would know my name, I'd be famous. But I think the clues about how real (not artificial) intelligence works are "Brain Waves". Humans and Animals have these echo-cycles in their brains that pass through many filters, and when they stop, they say we are "brain dead". That SHOULD be a huge clue. I think our "awareness" is stored in the echo, not in any physical object.

Who to store data in an echo? In the 50s, there was a proposal to transmit data in a radio signal and bounce it off the Moon, and a receiver would collect the data and send it via a long cable to the transmitter. The data would cycle forever, and the storage media would be just empty space. So we know with certainty that information can be stored without the need for physical media. Real AI will work kind of. like that. Figure out the details, and you will be famous.
 
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Recent experience with Siri and Apple Intelligence reveals serious shortcomings that persist.

Viewing a video where an iPhone and Android phone placed side by side and asked the same question, revealed just how shockingly behind Apple is.

One wonders just how clueless Apple is about this massive failure. It’s hard to imagine it’s anything other than complacency if we take into consideration Apples record of success in other areas.

AI is not really ready, even OpenAI's GhatGPT still hallucinates badly! Apple does not like that! If Apple is so complacent then why does everyone want their AI people?
 
Agree. I've been following and studying AI since I was an undergrade in the late 1970s

Even back in the day, there was this term called "Vanishing AI". It meant that when someone creates software that does something that seems to be intelligent, such as playing chess (well) or making medical diagnoses or whatever, then later we look inside and see it is not intelligent at all, but just a clever algorithm, the AI vanishes, and it becomes "just basic computer science."

When LLMs emerged, I was astounded at how well they worked. They seemed on the surface to act intelligently. But I knew how neural networks were trained and how they worked, and knew "thinking" would be impossible with that technology. But it certainly gives the illusion of it. The explanation is simple: Training is actually a search through a billion+ dimensional space for the best way to store 200 trillion tons of data in a 20 billion ton box. Then we know from information theory that the best way to compress data is to remove as much redundancy as possible, leaving only rules and procedures for regenerating it.

So the current LLM-based AI "vanishes" when we can explain it as simply an inevitable result of regularization and compression.

But this is not to say the current technology is not useful. Just as useful as other computer science.

What will the next big revolution be? If I knew, you all would know my name, I'd be famous. But I think the clues about how real (not artificial) intelligence works are "Brain Waves". Humans and Animals have these echo-cycles in their brains that pass through many filters, and when they stop, they say we are "brain dead". That SHOULD be a huge clue. I think our "awareness" is stored in the echo, not in any physical object.

Who to store data in an echo? In the 50s, there was a proposal to transmit data in a radio signal and bounce it off the Moon, and a receiver would collect the data and send it via a long cable to the transmitter. The data would cycle forever, and the storage media would be just empty space. So we know with certainty that information can be stored without the need for physical media. Real AI will work kind of. like that. Figure out the details, and you will be famous.
thanks for that insight. I think you are right about AI...but whatever we are calling it ....right now it's a critical feature set that apple must have because it's going to be expected by the majority of users going forward as just standard practice.
 
By this point I couldn't care less what Apple introduces. If they come up with something good, I'll buy it, but if Open AI offers a good product, I wouldn't say no to it. Apple is slowly morphing into Microsoft and seems to be genuinely losing its identity of "think different". Yes, I will probably get hate for this post, but I don't care. Someone has to say it. This company has gotten way too comfortable with tiny progress in their RnD for the most part.
 
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Apple is a moloch without vision and ideas, isn't so Tim? Your persona is the handbrake. No wonder that people are jumping out from the slow rolling wagon..
 
AI is not really ready, even OpenAI's GhatGPT still hallucinates badly! Apple does not like that! If Apple is so complacent then why does everyone want their AI people?
Yes it’s true, AI is still an unknown with a questionable future.

Yet to remain competitive in today’s “AI space” as being promoted by Google and even Apple, they need to produce some results.

Something beyond loss of talent is holding Apple back. The decision maker, or makers aren’t performing. Perhaps they’re the complacent ones.

Loss of their AI engineers comes down to money and working conditions. This company has all the money so what’s the hold up?
 
Apple is a moloch without vision and ideas, isn't so Tim? Your persona is the handbrake. No wonder that people are jumping out from the slow rolling wagon..

And yet Apple's 1+ Billion active and repeat customers continue to purchase Apple products. Propelling Apple to being one of the most successful consumer tech companies in the world.
 
And yet Apple's 1+ Billion active and repeat customers continue to purchase Apple products. Propelling Apple to being one of the most successful consumer tech companies in the world.
Yes, Apples success speaks for itself. So that leaves one wondering what their problem is when it comes to AI.

Something is very wrong, and it’s being kept a secret.
 
Yes, Apples success speaks for itself. So that leaves one wondering what their problem is when it comes to AI.

Something is very wrong, and it’s being kept a secret.

Almost everyone here has said they'll turn off AI as soon as Apple loads it on their phone. What I find amusing is all the hand-wringing over something that no one here wants. And will immediately turn off.

My view is Apple is developing their own privacy-focused AI, that'll run on its own AI servers (now being manufactured in Apple's US factory) that will be distributed across the US. And accessed by users with their iPhones and computers. That takes time.
 
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“Hey Siri make an Genmoji of Steve Jobs rolling in his grave.”

Siri: Here’s the nearest cemeteries. Would you like me to call one?
 
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