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Report: Work on Multiple Next-Gen Vision Pro Headsets Ongoing, Including Cheaper Model
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Every article about AVP gets spammed with comments that it can’t possibly succeed with such an unaffordable price. But while it definitely seems high, is it truly ‘unaffordable’?
I suspect for most people (myself included), it is not truly unaffordable in the sense of being a literally impossible purchase. Clearly many typical Apple customers can and do spend such sums of money on many things in life - for instance, $3500 would be considered a fantastical bargain for things such as housing, transportation, education, health care coverage, etc. by most of us. But it is definitely a very daunting amount for a discretionary expense. If I bought one, and found I didn’t really use it or like it, that $3500 would be a very painful mistake and would probably mean regrettable sacrifices elsewhere for most people. However, if it ended up being even a fraction as beneficial to my life as say, my vehicle (which costs far more to purchase and operate), I’d be thrilled with the price.
So to ground my perception a bit, I’ve gone back and considered the introductory (base models only) prices of some of the significantly innovative Apple (and non-Apple) products over the years. I used this web site to adjust for inflation and normalize everything to 2024 dollars for comparison:
Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2023
Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2023. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Apple 1 (one of the first consumer market home computers, and obviously the start of Apple): $666.66 in 1976 = $3,563.26 in 2024.
Apple II (one of the first generation mass consumer market computers and Apple’s first major product): $1298 in 1977 = $6,514.14 in 2024.
Apple /// (Apple‘s first ’business’ class product): $4340 in 1980 = $16,018.34 in 2024.
Apple Profile (Apple’s first hard drive, with 5 MB of storage): $3499 in 1981 = $11,706.71 in 2024.
Apple Lisa (first commercially available GUI computer): $9995 in 1983 = $30,519.57 in 2024.
Macintosh (the computer for the rest of us…): $2495 in 1984 = $7,303.15 in 2024.
Mac II (first ’business’ class Mac): $5498 in 1987 = $14,719.10 in 2024.
Macintosh Portable (first Mac laptop): $7300 in 1989 = $17,904.25 in 2024.
Mac IIFX (first real graphics power house Mac): $8969 in 1990 = $20,870.05 in 2024.
Power Mac 6100/60 (first RISC based Mac, cheapest version): $1820 in 1994 = $3,734.89 in 2024.
iMac (Apple’s return to ‘consumer’ priced products when Jobs came back): $1299 in 1998 = $2,423.69 in 2024.
Newton Message Pad 100 (first PDA): $900 in 1993 = $1,894.22 in 2024.
iPod (Apple’s first music player, held 1000 songs, put Apple in the mainstream): $399 in 2001 = $685.57 in 2024.
iPhone (put the internet everywhere, put Apple on top, defined smartphones): $499 in 2007 = $731.93 in 2024.
and some key non Apple products:
Other first generation hobbyist, home, and business personal computers:
Altair 8800: $621 in 1975 = $3,510.46 in 2024.
Radio Shack TRS-80: $599.95 in 1977 = $3,010.91 in 2024.
Commodore PET: $795 in 1977 = $3,989.78 in 2024.
Atari 400: $550 in 1979 = $2,303.99 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 99/4: $1150 in 1979 = $4,817.44 in 2024.
IBM PC: $1565 in 1981 = $5,236.07 in 2024.
Other early generation ‘personal’ digital electronics:
HP 9100A (desktop programmable calculator - first ‘personal computer’): $5000 in 1968 = $43,696.41 in 2024.
HP 35 (first pocket scientific calculator): $395 in 1972 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 59 (programmable pocket calculator): $300 in 1977 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Hamilton Pulsar P1 (first electronic digital watch): $2100 in 1972 = $15,279.11 in 2024
and finally, some other premium VR products:
Microsoft HoloLens: $3000 in 2016 = $3,801.48 in 2024.
Microsoft HoloLens 2 (probably best regarded prior to Vision Pro): $3500 in 2019 = $4,163.56 in 2024.
VPL Research (the company that coined the term ‘virtual reality’): $250,000 in 1989 = $613,159.27 in 2024. - I was fortunate enough to get to try a demo of one of these as a student in 1992. It took two Silicon Graphics workstations to render then images and a top of the line Mac to run the virtual environment. It was absolutely amazing in its day and I was convinced would be the future for graphics oriented computer work someday, but the price was obviously beyond comprehension. Been waiting for this day ever since - $3500 is a whole different discussion than $600k…
So, what does all that mean for the price of Vision Pro? Obviously, it’s still very expensive as a personal electronics item. Affordable I suppose depends on relative to what.
But considering that it can do absolutely everything that all of the above listed items could do (with the exception of fitting in your pocket or on your wrist), can do it much better in most cases, and can do things far beyond what any of those other items can do, yet at a normalized price that is far less in most cases, it seems likely that it is priced to sell at least as well as almost all of the above.
So, given the ground breaking nature of the above listed products and the ground breaking nature of Vision Pro, I have to admit $3500 is probably a price point at which it can be quite successful.
Still wish it was cheaper… :-(
I asked ChatGPT to summarize - I found it too difficult to read the wall of text.
Context of the Discussion: The article discusses the perceived affordability of the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), a premium product priced at $3500. Many view it as unaffordable, yet the author argues this may not be the case.
Price Comparison to Life Necessities: The price, while high for a discretionary item, is considered a bargain compared to essentials like housing, transportation, and healthcare.
Risk of Regret: Purchasing AVP involves the risk of regret if it's not used effectively, potentially leading to financial sacrifices.
Price Analysis Using Historical Comparisons:
- Adjustment for Inflation: Prices of various innovative Apple and non-Apple products were adjusted for inflation to 2024 dollars.
- Examples of Apple Products:
- Apple I, II, ///, Profile, Lisa, Macintosh, Mac II, Macintosh Portable, Mac IIFX, Power Mac 6100/60, iMac, Newton Message Pad 100, iPod, iPhone. - Prices Adjusted to 2024: Prices range from $685.57 (iPod, 2001) to $30,519.57 (Apple Lisa, 1983).
Non-Apple Product Comparisons:
- Early Computers: Altair 8800, Radio Shack TRS-80, Commodore PET, Atari 400, Texas Instruments 99/4, IBM PC.
- Digital Electronics: HP 9100A, HP 35, Texas Instruments 59, Hamilton Pulsar P1.
- VR Products: Microsoft HoloLens, HoloLens 2, VPL Research's VR product.
- Prices Adjusted to 2024: Range from $2,873.93 (Texas Instruments 59, 1977) to $613,159.27 (VPL Research VR, 1989).
Analysis of AVP's Price:
- Capability Comparison: AVP can perform functions of all listed items (except being pocket-sized or wearable), often better.
- Price Justification: Given its capabilities, the AVP's price is seen as potentially justifiable and likely to sell well, similar to past groundbreaking products.
Personal Conclusion: Despite acknowledging the potential success at the $3500 price point, the author expresses a desire for a lower price.
too many models for me, i think like the old macbook line, Vision (A Pro or M series processor) and Vision Pro (M pro series processor, perhaps M max), price tag $899 - 1999
Most early adopters recognize this and more or less accept it. I remember it happening with one of the early iPones. They gave us a $100 credit which I used to buy a BT earpiece. Nice.
I highly doubt the price is the VPs biggest problem. I would argue it is the quite large footprint of a heavy thing you strap to your face with limited battery life.
If you only going to use it at home, alone, noone will see the cool stuff you have, therefore, only the ones that really find a use case will use them.
If you only going to use it at home, alone, noone will see the cool stuff you have, therefore, only the ones that really find a use case will use them.
Get one and keep it unopened.... It be worth so much more in the future.
Price isn’t the main issue with Vision. It could be $500 and the massive barriers to adoption would still be there. Just because a thing is cheap doesn’t mean it’s compelling, useful or good.
HP 35 should be a bit higher than thatEvery article about AVP gets spammed with comments that it can’t possibly succeed with such an unaffordable price. But while it definitely seems high, is it truly ‘unaffordable’?
I suspect for most people (myself included), it is not truly unaffordable in the sense of being a literally impossible purchase. Clearly many typical Apple customers can and do spend such sums of money on many things in life - for instance, $3500 would be considered a fantastical bargain for things such as housing, transportation, education, health care coverage, etc. by most of us. But it is definitely a very daunting amount for a discretionary expense. If I bought one, and found I didn’t really use it or like it, that $3500 would be a very painful mistake and would probably mean regrettable sacrifices elsewhere for most people. However, if it ended up being even a fraction as beneficial to my life as say, my vehicle (which costs far more to purchase and operate), I’d be thrilled with the price.
So to ground my perception a bit, I’ve gone back and considered the introductory (base models only) prices of some of the significantly innovative Apple (and non-Apple) products over the years. I used this web site to adjust for inflation and normalize everything to 2024 dollars for comparison:
Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2023
Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2023. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Apple 1 (one of the first consumer market home computers, and obviously the start of Apple): $666.66 in 1976 = $3,563.26 in 2024.
Apple II (one of the first generation mass consumer market computers and Apple’s first major product): $1298 in 1977 = $6,514.14 in 2024.
Apple /// (Apple‘s first ’business’ class product): $4340 in 1980 = $16,018.34 in 2024.
Apple Profile (Apple’s first hard drive, with 5 MB of storage): $3499 in 1981 = $11,706.71 in 2024.
Apple Lisa (first commercially available GUI computer): $9995 in 1983 = $30,519.57 in 2024.
Macintosh (the computer for the rest of us…): $2495 in 1984 = $7,303.15 in 2024.
Mac II (first ’business’ class Mac): $5498 in 1987 = $14,719.10 in 2024.
Macintosh Portable (first Mac laptop): $7300 in 1989 = $17,904.25 in 2024.
Mac IIFX (first real graphics power house Mac): $8969 in 1990 = $20,870.05 in 2024.
Power Mac 6100/60 (first RISC based Mac, cheapest version): $1820 in 1994 = $3,734.89 in 2024.
iMac (Apple’s return to ‘consumer’ priced products when Jobs came back): $1299 in 1998 = $2,423.69 in 2024.
Newton Message Pad 100 (first PDA): $900 in 1993 = $1,894.22 in 2024.
iPod (Apple’s first music player, held 1000 songs, put Apple in the mainstream): $399 in 2001 = $685.57 in 2024.
iPhone (put the internet everywhere, put Apple on top, defined smartphones): $499 in 2007 = $731.93 in 2024.
and some key non Apple products:
Other first generation hobbyist, home, and business personal computers:
Altair 8800: $621 in 1975 = $3,510.46 in 2024.
Radio Shack TRS-80: $599.95 in 1977 = $3,010.91 in 2024.
Commodore PET: $795 in 1977 = $3,989.78 in 2024.
Atari 400: $550 in 1979 = $2,303.99 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 99/4: $1150 in 1979 = $4,817.44 in 2024.
IBM PC: $1565 in 1981 = $5,236.07 in 2024.
Other early generation ‘personal’ digital electronics:
HP 9100A (desktop programmable calculator - first ‘personal computer’): $5000 in 1968 = $43,696.41 in 2024.
HP 35 (first pocket scientific calculator): $395 in 1972 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 59 (programmable pocket calculator): $300 in 1977 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Hamilton Pulsar P1 (first electronic digital watch): $2100 in 1972 = $15,279.11 in 2024
and finally, some other premium VR products:
Microsoft HoloLens: $3000 in 2016 = $3,801.48 in 2024.
Microsoft HoloLens 2 (probably best regarded prior to Vision Pro): $3500 in 2019 = $4,163.56 in 2024.
VPL Research (the company that coined the term ‘virtual reality’): $250,000 in 1989 = $613,159.27 in 2024. - I was fortunate enough to get to try a demo of one of these as a student in 1992. It took two Silicon Graphics workstations to render then images and a top of the line Mac to run the virtual environment. It was absolutely amazing in its day and I was convinced would be the future for graphics oriented computer work someday, but the price was obviously beyond comprehension. Been waiting for this day ever since - $3500 is a whole different discussion than $600k…
So, what does all that mean for the price of Vision Pro? Obviously, it’s still very expensive as a personal electronics item. Affordable I suppose depends on relative to what.
But considering that it can do absolutely everything that all of the above listed items could do (with the exception of fitting in your pocket or on your wrist), can do it much better in most cases, and can do things far beyond what any of those other items can do, yet at a normalized price that is far less in most cases, it seems likely that it is priced to sell at least as well as almost all of the above.
So, given the ground breaking nature of the above listed products and the ground breaking nature of Vision Pro, I have to admit $3500 is probably a price point at which it can be quite successful.
Still wish it was cheaper… :-(
Never buy first gen. Let the early adopters pay the inflated price intended to help recoup the enormous R&D costs. I love the idea of augmented reality headsets. I will definitely consider this product when they bring the weight, size and price down by about 90%. Until then, thank you to the early adopters for helping push progress forward.
bigscreen beyond VR - 127 grams
apple vision pro - 680g
bigscreen beyond VR - 127 grams
apple vision pro - 680g
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2027 is when I will likely part with cash for one. Need this to mature a lot first and see the commitment. I also want to see how much they will support the first version with software updates. But it certainly feels like it could be my transition from the Mac as my desktop computing platform.
But..but..Kuo said the cheaper model "might be cancelled"...
www.macrumors.com
The same Kuo who said no M3 this year, no new Macs for the rest of 2023 and then we got a whole Halloween event 10 days later.
Kuo: Low-Cost Apple Vision Pro Might Be Canceled
Apple may have canceled plans to produce a lower-cost version of the Apple Vision Pro headset, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. There were...
www.macrumors.com
The same Kuo who said no M3 this year, no new Macs for the rest of 2023 and then we got a whole Halloween event 10 days later.
Early adopters always pay a (steep) premium for the privilege. Just remember when plasma flat screen tvs and cell phones were first introduced to the market. Also, I don't think the second gen cheaper model will be introduced in less than one year. The article even says it won't be released until the second half of 2025 at the earliest.
That's all well and good but it's missing some context. Back when these products came on the market, people's discretionary income was much higher than it is today. The subscription business model wasn't a thing let alone the ONLY business model like it is today. $3500 seems like a lot because people are spending all their money to rent every aspect of their daily life.
The larger issue is that Apple hasn't demonstrated the killer app. The Apple II was successful due to in large part the creation of VisiCalc. Computers existed before but nobody really understood what they could be used for. Video goggles have been around for a while but there's nothing about them that makes your life that much easier or more enjoyable. Both the iPod and the iPhone were not the first MP3 player or cellphone but they totally changed the spaces they were in. Vision Pro is going to have to do that and price isn't relevant.
IMO, to see truly mass market adoption the price will have to come down to $1499 or $1749 tops.
Even though $3500 is out of reach for most people, including myself, I don't think a million units in sales is out of reach, especially if apple makes it available in other countries later in the year.
I buy everything by Apple, my business is developing for VR + AR, and I am still baulking at the price !
It will be a great product but I still think 3-5 years for headsets to become moderately popular, with good apps and uses. Its a long game, and those dismissing this type of product are going to be very wrong.
It will be a great product but I still think 3-5 years for headsets to become moderately popular, with good apps and uses. Its a long game, and those dismissing this type of product are going to be very wrong.
Yep. At that starting price, not enough people will buy it, so the developers will stop writing for it, and then it's over.
I don't want one at any price, but I also don't think it's ever going to be a high selling item as a headset -- we'll have to wait for real neural link type stuff before VR/AR becomes a need.
I'm not too optimistic about Vision Pro's success, but I've learned to not doubt Apple. Who knows, maybe spatial computing is the future and has a better experience than using a laptop. But I'm not going to judge until I can try one myself.
Mirrors the many “iPhone will bomb” predictions in 2006.