spetznatz
macrumors regular
No.
Report: Work on Multiple Next-Gen Vision Pro Headsets Ongoing, Including Cheaper Model
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Surf Monkey
Suspended
You can’t sustain a long term market on the back of “the curious” if the product isn’t compelling, useful or good.
DownUnderDan
macrumors 6502a
This is a niche product, that works with a computer that has a niche market. Even if it sells well by Apple standards and I think thats a huge stretch, it will be a blip on the market. This isn't a iPad or iPhone style product for mass consumption.
JordanCautious
macrumors 6502
They need to reach between $1500-$2000 if they are serious about this device actually succeeding. The M3 Max MacBook Pro 16" that I'm eyeing for purchase in 2024 is $3500.
If I had to choose between that laptop and a AR/VR Headset, I'm choosing the MacBook everytime. There is no Software Developer in the country who's choosing the Headset over a M3 Max, especially when the Headset only has a M2 chip in it lmao. That's what people are forgetting. This thing is gonna be rocking an old chip by the time it comes out.
I'm waiting for the 2nd generation.
If I had to choose between that laptop and a AR/VR Headset, I'm choosing the MacBook everytime. There is no Software Developer in the country who's choosing the Headset over a M3 Max, especially when the Headset only has a M2 chip in it lmao. That's what people are forgetting. This thing is gonna be rocking an old chip by the time it comes out.
I'm waiting for the 2nd generation.
Surf Monkey
Suspended
I keep saying this and people keep becoming hostile as a result.
Apple clearly wants this to be a mass adoption product. Listen to how Tim Cook and the other execs talk about it. They want everyone who has an iPhone to buy one. Your mom, your neighbor, your teacher at school…
But the hard fact about Vision is that the barriers to adoption are exceptionally high. It’s entering a market that has, by most accounts, already failed. It isn’t fully stand alone since many of the most interesting potential uses require a laptop. The impact it may or may not have on a person’s eyesight after prolonged use is unknown. It’s inherently isolating. It isn’t a pass through system where you see the actual real world. The device looks creepy and dystopian. It requires an extended process to fit correctly. If a user needs eyeglasses they’ll have to purchase custom lenses for the device. And finally, it goes on your FACE. That last fact alone will eliminate the vast majority of consumers from ever even trying it.
Oh. And it costs an arm and a leg and it won’t be getting significantly cheaper.
tongxinshe
macrumors 65816
You just pointed out the EXACT SINGLE reason that Apple gradually became TOTALLY irrelevant in the PC industry from the 80s’ to the 90s’, although it was generations ahead than the competitors.Every article about AVP gets spammed with comments that it can’t possibly succeed with such an unaffordable price. But while it definitely seems high, is it truly ‘unaffordable’?
I suspect for most people (myself included), it is not truly unaffordable in the sense of being a literally impossible purchase. Clearly many typical Apple customers can and do spend such sums of money on many things in life - for instance, $3500 would be considered a fantastical bargain for things such as housing, transportation, education, health care coverage, etc. by most of us. But it is definitely a very daunting amount for a discretionary expense. If I bought one, and found I didn’t really use it or like it, that $3500 would be a very painful mistake and would probably mean regrettable sacrifices elsewhere for most people. However, if it ended up being even a fraction as beneficial to my life as say, my vehicle (which costs far more to purchase and operate), I’d be thrilled with the price.
So to ground my perception a bit, I’ve gone back and considered the introductory (base models only) prices of some of the significantly innovative Apple (and non-Apple) products over the years. I used this web site to adjust for inflation and normalize everything to 2024 dollars for comparison:
Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2023
Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2023. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Apple 1 (one of the first consumer market home computers, and obviously the start of Apple): $666.66 in 1976 = $3,563.26 in 2024.
Apple II (one of the first generation mass consumer market computers and Apple’s first major product): $1298 in 1977 = $6,514.14 in 2024.
Apple /// (Apple‘s first ’business’ class product): $4340 in 1980 = $16,018.34 in 2024.
Apple Profile (Apple’s first hard drive, with 5 MB of storage): $3499 in 1981 = $11,706.71 in 2024.
Apple Lisa (first commercially available GUI computer): $9995 in 1983 = $30,519.57 in 2024.
Macintosh (the computer for the rest of us…): $2495 in 1984 = $7,303.15 in 2024.
Mac II (first ’business’ class Mac): $5498 in 1987 = $14,719.10 in 2024.
Macintosh Portable (first Mac laptop): $7300 in 1989 = $17,904.25 in 2024.
Mac IIFX (first real graphics power house Mac): $8969 in 1990 = $20,870.05 in 2024.
Power Mac 6100/60 (first RISC based Mac, cheapest version): $1820 in 1994 = $3,734.89 in 2024.
iMac (Apple’s return to ‘consumer’ priced products when Jobs came back): $1299 in 1998 = $2,423.69 in 2024.
Newton Message Pad 100 (first PDA): $900 in 1993 = $1,894.22 in 2024.
iPod (Apple’s first music player, held 1000 songs, put Apple in the mainstream): $399 in 2001 = $685.57 in 2024.
iPhone (put the internet everywhere, put Apple on top, defined smartphones): $499 in 2007 = $731.93 in 2024.
and some key non Apple products:
Other first generation hobbyist, home, and business personal computers:
Altair 8800: $621 in 1975 = $3,510.46 in 2024.
Radio Shack TRS-80: $599.95 in 1977 = $3,010.91 in 2024.
Commodore PET: $795 in 1977 = $3,989.78 in 2024.
Atari 400: $550 in 1979 = $2,303.99 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 99/4: $1150 in 1979 = $4,817.44 in 2024.
IBM PC: $1565 in 1981 = $5,236.07 in 2024.
Other early generation ‘personal’ digital electronics:
HP 9100A (desktop programmable calculator - first ‘personal computer’): $5000 in 1968 = $43,696.41 in 2024.
HP 35 (first pocket scientific calculator): $395 in 1972 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 59 (programmable pocket calculator): $300 in 1977 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Hamilton Pulsar P1 (first electronic digital watch): $2100 in 1972 = $15,279.11 in 2024
and finally, some other premium VR products:
Microsoft HoloLens: $3000 in 2016 = $3,801.48 in 2024.
Microsoft HoloLens 2 (probably best regarded prior to Vision Pro): $3500 in 2019 = $4,163.56 in 2024.
VPL Research (the company that coined the term ‘virtual reality’): $250,000 in 1989 = $613,159.27 in 2024. - I was fortunate enough to get to try a demo of one of these as a student in 1992. It took two Silicon Graphics workstations to render then images and a top of the line Mac to run the virtual environment. It was absolutely amazing in its day and I was convinced would be the future for graphics oriented computer work someday, but the price was obviously beyond comprehension. Been waiting for this day ever since - $3500 is a whole different discussion than $600k…
So, what does all that mean for the price of Vision Pro? Obviously, it’s still very expensive as a personal electronics item. Affordable I suppose depends on relative to what.
But considering that it can do absolutely everything that all of the above listed items could do (with the exception of fitting in your pocket or on your wrist), can do it much better in most cases, and can do things far beyond what any of those other items can do, yet at a normalized price that is far less in most cases, it seems likely that it is priced to sell at least as well as almost all of the above.
So, given the ground breaking nature of the above listed products and the ground breaking nature of Vision Pro, I have to admit $3500 is probably a price point at which it can be quite successful.
Still wish it was cheaper… :-(
Born Again
Suspended
I hope so too but we haven’t seen any got to have it demos.
So you think it’s going to do as well as the iphone?
tongxinshe
macrumors 65816
And that "original macbook air with SSD option” never sold more than 100K a year, or maybe just 10K a year. A totally ignorable volume.
tongxinshe
macrumors 65816
None of those three examples you gave carry unforgettably INSANE price points. Oh, except for one subtype of them, the original Apple Watch Edition, which Apple sold maybe less than 1K in total, that’s why it was SOON forgotten.
tongxinshe
macrumors 65816
… when it drops to a *reasonable* price range.
Good User Name
macrumors 6502
Do you have any data to support your premise that people’s discretionary income is lower now than it was at any of those dates mentioned?
Return Zero
macrumors 65816
That’s exactly my point. Very few people will buy the Vision Pro in 2024. It has laughable battery life and an already-outdated processor. It will sell enough to drive further product development, not to drive revenue by itself.
What did the MacBook Air become a few years after release? Only the most beloved and best-selling Mac of all time, with a standard SSD, starting under $1k.
Return Zero
macrumors 65816
None of those packed nearly as much tech as the Vision Pro. It’s really not as overpriced as it seems. It’s in premium early adopter territory for sure, but not unforgettably insane by any measure.
Return Zero
macrumors 65816
That’s exactly what I’m saying. That’s exactly what this article is saying. It’s not priced for mass-market adoption… yet.
DeepWebinar
Suspended
i think they should make the second generation even more expensive. like screw it, lean in to how stupid this thing is. it should be $9K, the battery life should be 18 minutes, and they should spit in the box.
Every article about AVP gets spammed with comments that it can’t possibly succeed with such an unaffordable price. But while it definitely seems high, is it truly ‘unaffordable’?
I suspect for most people (myself included), it is not truly unaffordable in the sense of being a literally impossible purchase. Clearly many typical Apple customers can and do spend such sums of money on many things in life - for instance, $3500 would be considered a fantastical bargain for things such as housing, transportation, education, health care coverage, etc. by most of us. But it is definitely a very daunting amount for a discretionary expense. If I bought one, and found I didn’t really use it or like it, that $3500 would be a very painful mistake and would probably mean regrettable sacrifices elsewhere for most people. However, if it ended up being even a fraction as beneficial to my life as say, my vehicle (which costs far more to purchase and operate), I’d be thrilled with the price.
So to ground my perception a bit, I’ve gone back and considered the introductory (base models only) prices of some of the significantly innovative Apple (and non-Apple) products over the years. I used this web site to adjust for inflation and normalize everything to 2024 dollars for comparison:
Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2023
Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2023. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Apple 1 (one of the first consumer market home computers, and obviously the start of Apple): $666.66 in 1976 = $3,563.26 in 2024.
Apple II (one of the first generation mass consumer market computers and Apple’s first major product): $1298 in 1977 = $6,514.14 in 2024.
Apple /// (Apple‘s first ’business’ class product): $4340 in 1980 = $16,018.34 in 2024.
Apple Profile (Apple’s first hard drive, with 5 MB of storage): $3499 in 1981 = $11,706.71 in 2024.
Apple Lisa (first commercially available GUI computer): $9995 in 1983 = $30,519.57 in 2024.
Macintosh (the computer for the rest of us…): $2495 in 1984 = $7,303.15 in 2024.
Mac II (first ’business’ class Mac): $5498 in 1987 = $14,719.10 in 2024.
Macintosh Portable (first Mac laptop): $7300 in 1989 = $17,904.25 in 2024.
Mac IIFX (first real graphics power house Mac): $8969 in 1990 = $20,870.05 in 2024.
Power Mac 6100/60 (first RISC based Mac, cheapest version): $1820 in 1994 = $3,734.89 in 2024.
iMac (Apple’s return to ‘consumer’ priced products when Jobs came back): $1299 in 1998 = $2,423.69 in 2024.
Newton Message Pad 100 (first PDA): $900 in 1993 = $1,894.22 in 2024.
iPod (Apple’s first music player, held 1000 songs, put Apple in the mainstream): $399 in 2001 = $685.57 in 2024.
iPhone (put the internet everywhere, put Apple on top, defined smartphones): $499 in 2007 = $731.93 in 2024.
and some key non Apple products:
Other first generation hobbyist, home, and business personal computers:
Altair 8800: $621 in 1975 = $3,510.46 in 2024.
Radio Shack TRS-80: $599.95 in 1977 = $3,010.91 in 2024.
Commodore PET: $795 in 1977 = $3,989.78 in 2024.
Atari 400: $550 in 1979 = $2,303.99 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 99/4: $1150 in 1979 = $4,817.44 in 2024.
IBM PC: $1565 in 1981 = $5,236.07 in 2024.
Other early generation ‘personal’ digital electronics:
HP 9100A (desktop programmable calculator - first ‘personal computer’): $5000 in 1968 = $43,696.41 in 2024.
HP 35 (first pocket scientific calculator): $395 in 1972 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Texas Instruments 59 (programmable pocket calculator): $300 in 1977 = $2,873.93 in 2024.
Hamilton Pulsar P1 (first electronic digital watch): $2100 in 1972 = $15,279.11 in 2024
and finally, some other premium VR products:
Microsoft HoloLens: $3000 in 2016 = $3,801.48 in 2024.
Microsoft HoloLens 2 (probably best regarded prior to Vision Pro): $3500 in 2019 = $4,163.56 in 2024.
VPL Research (the company that coined the term ‘virtual reality’): $250,000 in 1989 = $613,159.27 in 2024. - I was fortunate enough to get to try a demo of one of these as a student in 1992. It took two Silicon Graphics workstations to render then images and a top of the line Mac to run the virtual environment. It was absolutely amazing in its day and I was convinced would be the future for graphics oriented computer work someday, but the price was obviously beyond comprehension. Been waiting for this day ever since - $3500 is a whole different discussion than $600k…
So, what does all that mean for the price of Vision Pro? Obviously, it’s still very expensive as a personal electronics item. Affordable I suppose depends on relative to what.
But considering that it can do absolutely everything that all of the above listed items could do (with the exception of fitting in your pocket or on your wrist), can do it much better in most cases, and can do things far beyond what any of those other items can do, yet at a normalized price that is far less in most cases, it seems likely that it is priced to sell at least as well as almost all of the above.
So, given the ground breaking nature of the above listed products and the ground breaking nature of Vision Pro, I have to admit $3500 is probably a price point at which it can be quite successful.
Still wish it was cheaper… :-(
I know you put a lot of time into this, but at the end of the day, this is just a list. I could make another one and include the iPad, iPhone and iPod and conclude the price is too high in comparison to those.
I think a products usefulness is extremely relevant. Apple made the decision to run iPad apps on this but not Mac OS apps, which imo tremendously hurts its value. $3500 wouldn't feel so bad if you could replace your laptop with it. My issue with $3500 is that you won't get a vibrant app ecosystem if all devices cost that much. There simply won't be enough users to develop for.
Hololens level sales wouldn't be a success for Apple. Those are bought by corporations for very specific tasks in mind and apps built in-house. That's the complete inverse of the iPhone success they'd like to replicate. The cheaper version (when it comes out) will make or break this product line.
The M2 is just all they could talk about at the time and bundle into developer kits. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Apple reveals that it's actually launching with M3 once they are ready to ship. Waiting for the second gen is a good rule of thumb for Apple though.
I did include the iPod and iPhone (didn’t include iPad - no reason). But it’s not “just a list”. It’s a list of products that introduced significantly new product categories, at their introductory prices.
What we see from such comparison is that the AVP pricing is not out of line with similar product introductions. I’m not trying to argue that AVP will or won’t be “successful” in the market (whatever that means).
The point is to dispel the myth that AVP pricing is “unaffordable” any more so than a vast number of other new product introductions, many of which have gone on to great success.
No doubt it is expensive. But being expensive is not automatically unaffordable. To be sure, there are many people in the world for whom it is literally unaffordable, just as are all the other listed products, and countless more. However, such income levels are obviously not the target market.
The market of customers for whom it is literally affordable is more than large enough to make it a successful product - provided it is compelling enough sell at intended levels at the asking price. If not, then it is too expensive for its intended market, but that is not the same as being unaffordable.
That is what remains to be seen. It would require financial determination on my part to purchase one, but it would not be literally impossible, as is also the case for sufficiently plenty of people to form a successful market. The question is will I buy at this price point. I very well may not - despite being strongly intrigued by many of the historical products I listed, I did not end up buying them at introductory prices either (with one exception), because I decided they were too expensive for me. However, plenty of other people did, obviously.
In any case, I will definitely wait for an opportunity to try one for myself before deciding if it is or is not too expensive for me.
tim_apple
macrumors regular
I believe the Vision Pro will be a computing game changer (paradigm shift). Just as much as the iPhone was. But I think it will take a few years to take off and become mainstream. Definitely not going to be a hit right out of the gate. Although I could see a lot of people wanting to at least try it out.
Abazigal
Contributor
I think you forgot one important point - that all those prior versions sucked. I feel Apple is in a unique position to do what it does best - take an emerging product category with a frustrating user experience and deliver a polished product made possible by its control over both the hardware and software.
Though I wonder which is more scary. The thought that the Vision Pro might actually fail, or that it succeeds and walking around with smart googles in public actually becomes mainstream one day?
MacMikePro
macrumors regular
I’m very tempted to screenshot this comment to add it to the pile of “people who were 100% wrong about new Apple products“. It’s always funny to go back and see the old “the iPod is going to fail“ comments, or “the iPhone will fail” comments etc etc. The Apple Vision Pro will ABSOLUTELY sell out and be damn near impossible to get one, simply because Apple will not make enough of them, and they’re fine with that. Their focus has always been on these future generation models from get go. The first gen version is just to get the ball rolling, but to be so confident in thinking it’s going to bomb, damn you’re gonna be embarrassed haha.
Surf Monkey
Suspended
Manufactured scarcity isn’t the same as product success.
Fortimir
macrumors 6502a
RemindMe! 10yrs
Nothing is funnier than the doom and gloom about the iPhone before (and even right after) it came out. And just like the first iPhone, it's going to be super niche and limited at first until it finds its footing.