Research Firms Paint Very Different Pictures of First Quarter U.S. Mac Sales

[ValSalva]

I think Apple does'nt care about traditional computers, desktops, notebooks with regular OS. They realize there's no money in them, and that people don't want or need the complexity of a full blown OS. The problem with regular OS is that it cost money to support, hard to use, virus, etc. Because of the simplicity of buying software ( app store ) on iPhone/Touch/iPad platform, people are willing to buy software in large quantities. Guess what is happening to all the developers that made Mac and Windows apps, they are either moving to app store/Android store/web apps. I'm guessing in about 2 years there won't be any dev's making apps on regular OS as there's no app store/payment method. Also, it's a lot easier to develop apps on iPhone OS vs Windows/Mac.

This would be a mistake for Apple. With complexity comes flexibility and power. A full OS will be necessary for Apple's former target demographic of power users and content creators. There are plenty of computer companies and Microsoft willing and eager to fill the void left by Mac.

The iPad is a content consumption device. Maybe that's where profits are going to be biggest but I still think Apple would be making a big mistake by abandoning their core market.

 

[cvaldes]

As much as I love Apple, if they want to see market share increase, they gotta do these three things to keep up with the 'big dogs.'

Not interested in market share. More interested in profitability.

As an AAPL shareholder, I am mainly concerned with stubbing my toe on one of these large sacks of money strewn about the place.

 

[flottenheimer]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics".
- Benjamin Disraeli

 

[caleby]

I can tell you that in the next year the Windows 7 will explode on the Business end. As an IT manager we have been waiting and completely skipped Vista. We have some very old computers!

And 10% of people are already there (by March, 2010).

http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/ne...s-10-market-share.ars?comments=1#comments-bar

Considering Apple's only taken around 26 years (the famous "1984" ad) to obtain 8% of the OS market, I think they should surpass the PC market... at a glacier's pace.


__________________
"9 out of 10 Apple sites agree that only the most positive or outlandish analyst predictions should be reported on. I hope macrumors has the decency to redact all mention of the IDC report."
MR user pixelcruncher on 04/15/2010

 

[carmenodie]

C'mon guys! All the laptops computers other than Apple ALL RUN THE SAME OPERATING SYSTEM!
Microsoft licenses off their OS to every tom dick and harry so it would make since Apple would be at the bottom of sales. Dell, HP etc are cranking out the same effing computers but with a different name on the front.

 

[danielwsmithee]

I can tell you that in the next year the Windows 7 will explode on the Business end. As an IT manager we have been waiting and completely skipped Vista. We have some very old computers!

Hmm I've actually seen the opposite effect from most of the large corporations I visit. They have all done major PC purchases in the last year because it is the last chance to buy with an XP downgrade. They plan on running XP for the next 3-4 years until Windows has hit SP2 or SP3.

 

[caleby]

C'mon guys! All the laptops computers other than Apple ALL RUN THE SAME OPERATING SYSTEM!
Microsoft licenses off their OS to every tom dick and harry so it would make since Apple would be at the bottom of sales. Dell, HP etc are cranking out the same effing computers but with a different name on the front.

SFW? That's not the world's problem. You got a problem w/ that, you go to Steve-o and convince him to allow licensing the OSX. Problem solve.

 

[Kanada]

Metrics

Does anyone care about profit margins anymore? Is that no longer relevant to investors?

 

[gnasher729]

About half of Apple's revenue comes from computer sales. The gross margins are fantastic.

Trust me, they are interested in selling computers. But by all means, don't take my word for it: go read their SEC filings.

The question is: Is an iPad a computer?

Apple will sell two million iPads this quarter if things go really badly, more if things go well. If these iPads are "computers" then Apple will be clearly ahead of Toshiba and Acer and close to Dell and HP.

Even if they are not "computers", how many people will buy an iPad and not buy a netbook because of that?

 

[rdowns]

I think Apple does'nt care about traditional computers, desktops, notebooks with regular OS. They realize there's no money in them, and that people don't want or need the complexity of a full blown OS. The problem with regular OS is that it cost money to support, hard to use, virus, etc. Because of the simplicity of buying software ( app store ) on iPhone/Touch/iPad platform, people are willing to buy software in large quantities. Guess what is happening to all the developers that made Mac and Windows apps, they are either moving to app store/Android store/web apps. I'm guessing in about 2 years there won't be any dev's making apps on regular OS as there's no app store/payment method. Also, it's a lot easier to develop apps on iPhone OS vs Windows/Mac.

No offense but this is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read about Apple. Stop letting a bunch of geeks on a forum cloud the reality.

How about some numbers.

Quarter/Revenue from Macs/Total Revenue

Q1 2009/$3.55 billion/$10.16 billion
Q2 2009/$2.95 billion/$8.16 billion
Q3 2009/$3.33 billion/$8.34 billion
Q4 2009/$3.95 billion/$9.87 billion

Q1 2010/$4.45 billion/$15.68 billion

 

[Erwin-Br]

The question is: Is an iPad a computer?

Well, since the first thing iPad fans will point out when you ask about the lack of certain features is "It's not meant to be a computer" or "You need a Macbook, not an iPad", I'd say... no.

 

[RT2020]

I think Apple does'nt care about traditional computers, desktops, notebooks with regular OS. They realize there's no money in them, and that people don't want or need the complexity of a full blown OS. The problem with regular OS is that it cost money to support, hard to use, virus, etc. Because of the simplicity of buying software ( app store ) on iPhone/Touch/iPad platform, people are willing to buy software in large quantities. Guess what is happening to all the developers that made Mac and Windows apps, they are either moving to app store/Android store/web apps. I'm guessing in about 2 years there won't be any dev's making apps on regular OS as there's no app store/payment method. Also, it's a lot easier to develop apps on iPhone OS vs Windows/Mac.

With all do respect, do you actually do any work on your computer? There's more to computers than Facebook and Plants vs Zombies. Many people need the power of a proper computer, and are sophisticated enough to handle complexity. You are right, apple does not seem to care about traditional computers anymore. Im convinced they are thinking along your lines.

 

[DMann]

Did you just say more than 10-11% wouldnt be desirable? I hope you dont run a business... but ill give you a chance to explain

Not according to those who believe in the 'security by obscurity' theory.

BMW's market share currently holds 4.9% - quite admirable for a manufacturer of premium autos.

If Apple were able to keep pace with market growth, while holding 10-11%, (quite substantial, for a single computer company) they would continue to report record-breaking quarters, while maintaining an ultra-high premium hardware market share, a high ceiling for future growth, and an overall market share percentage that they can handle.

I do suspect that the iPad will accelerate things a bit.

 

[Eidorian]

Sweet Jesus, Acer and Toshiba sell.

 

[blilly]

You know, maybe it would help a bit better if

1. Apple didn't release so many dang iProducts
2. Apple actually cared about their desktop/laptop line enough to give it a substantial upgrade unlike the Macbook Pro's recent update
3. Drop the price.

As much as I love Apple, if they want to see market share increase, they gotta do these three things to keep up with the 'big dogs.'

Where have you been? Market share is the LAST thing Apple worries about.

 

[caleby]

Sweet Jesus, Acer and Toshiba sell.

You aren't just whistlin' D-I-X-I-E on that one! Oh, but I guess this the part where some fanboys chime to say that Acer and Toshiba are "flooding the market with cheap crap in order to manipulate the market with such pull". No mention about the Apple doing the same (you ever check out the Q.C. of the iPod Shuffle these days?).



___________________
"9 out of 10 Apple sites agree that only the most positive or outlandish analyst predictions should be reported on. I hope macrumors has the decency to redact all mention of the IDC report." MR user pixelcruncher on 04/15/2010 http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=iqgc93&s=5

 

[ironring2006]

For the sake of comparing year over year growth, consider:

Q1 2009 - iMac update, Mac Mini update, Mac Pro update

Q1 2010 - ...

 

[*LTD*]

You aren't just whistlin' D-I-X-I-E on that one! Oh, but I guess this the part where some fanboys chime to say that Acer and Toshiba are "flooding the market with cheap crap in order to manipulate the market with such pull". No mention about the Apple doing the same (you ever check out the Q.C. of the iPod Shuffle these days?).

Can't really speak for Toshiba, but Acer sells TRASH. Horrible stuff.

Netbooks, netbooks, netbooks. And their full-size laptop lines aren't much better.

Not sure what your point is by referencing the iPod Shuffle. I forgot Apple still makes them, tbh.

 

[kernkraft]

C'mon guys! All the laptops computers other than Apple ALL RUN THE SAME OPERATING SYSTEM!
Microsoft licenses off their OS to every tom dick and harry so it would make since Apple would be at the bottom of sales. Dell, HP etc are cranking out the same effing computers but with a different name on the front.

OK, let's forget about Linux for a while...

But seriously, when was the last time that you checked the parts in your Apple computer? It's all the same stuff. Apart from the MBs and MB Pros with 13". They don't have the new Intel processors, obviously. But apart from that, it's the same. Oh, and apart from Blu Ray...

Can't really speak for Toshiba, but Acer sells TRASH. Horrible stuff.

Netbooks, netbooks, netbooks. And their full-size laptop lines aren't much better.

So you haven't got an iPad, but you keep posting about how magical and revolutionary it is.

You haven't got an Asus laptop either (or any other PCs, I assume), but you keep saying how awful they are.

How come?

Sweet Jesus, Acer and Toshiba sell.

Millions of people just cannot get it right!

 

[godslabrat]

This would be a mistake for Apple. With complexity comes flexibility and power. A full OS will be necessary for Apple's former target demographic of power users and content creators. There are plenty of computer companies and Microsoft willing and eager to fill the void left by Mac.

The iPad is a content consumption device. Maybe that's where profits are going to be biggest but I still think Apple would be making a big mistake by abandoning their core market.

This.

We don't need to belittle the iPad to point out that Apple has a very loyal and profitable customer base in the video/audio/graphic editing field. Apple doesn't need to cater to them exclusively, but it would be very, very stupid of them to let that money walk away.

 

[axual]

I just don't care

One, the other, or both of these research firms are wrong. I'd say they both are ... it does not matter a hill of beans what these firms say. Though they would like to believe they are important.

 

[caleby]

Can't really speak for Toshiba, but Acer sells TRASH. Horrible stuff.

Netbooks, netbooks, netbooks. And their full-size laptop lines aren't much better.

Not sure what your point is by referencing the iPod Shuffle. I forgot Apple still makes them, tbh.

You're right Toshiba an Acer are essentially "disposable" computer. They're cheap, they get the job done (done, in the primitive way) and once they wear out, they're landfill space.

But there's clearly a demand for them and people sure are buying them! Ah, but Steve-o wants no part of the netbook market.

You shareholders (I am an Apple product user in multiple ways, but not lucky enough to a shareholder) seeing a PROBLEM with this, despite the uptick in sales?

So maybe Nokia "flooding the market" w/ their cell phones and Toshiba and Acer doing the same might pay off in more sales. If it were a well-built, low-priced netbook, Apple could get in on all the sweet action.

edit: You want more than 8% of the OS market, build a "cool netbook" like how you guys built a "cool smartphone". Perhaps Mr. Job's ego won't allow for it (elitism). That's okay. The top 2 companies putting out cheap crap are raking in the money doing so... public perception be darned!

 

[GamecockMac]

You're right Toshiba an Acer are essentially "disposable" computer. They're cheap, they get the job done (done, in the primitive way) and once they wear out, they're landfill space.

But there's clearly a demand for them and people sure are buying them! Ah, but Steve-o wants no part of the netbook market.

You shareholders (I am an Apple product user in multiple ways, but not lucky enough to a shareholder) seeing a PROBLEM with this, despite the uptick in sales?

So maybe Nokia "flooding the market" w/ their cell phones and Toshiba and Acer doing the same might pay off in more sales. If it were a well-built, low-priced netbook, Apple could get in on all the sweet action.

edit: You want more than 8% of the OS market, build a "cool netbook" like how you guys built a "cool smartphone". Perhaps Mr. Job's ego won't allow for it (elitism). That's okay. The top 2 companies putting out cheap crap are raking in the money doing so... public perception be darned!

Well, I am lucky enough to be an Apple shareholder (have been since the late 90s), and I don't have the slightest PROBLEM with Mr. Jobs and his business model since returning to lead the company he co-founded. My bank account also has no PROBLEM with his decision-making.

Another all-time high for the stock today ($248.92) tells me he is doing his job quite well, and Apple continues to "rake in the money" both for the company and its lucky shareholders.

 

[caleby]

I'm glad you're doing very well. The only downside is that 8% of the world is using OSX, a much more superior OS in millions of amazing ways. Mac is like the best kept special secret. I guess others will find their way to it or not. Shareholders have no complaints either way and I can see why.

 

[BayouMan]

They do what they do

Apple currently has 3 smartphone models and have sold 50 million worldwide and even the harshest Apple critics have said "their mindshare is well more than 50%".

Apple doesn't make a netbook because it doesn't fit their product scheme. So be it. I've used netbooks. You want to talk "toy"? The keyboard is designed for the hands of a five year old.

I have 4 Macs right now...Mac Pro, Mac Mini, MacBook, and iMac. The Mini is the oldest and I upgraded it from a Core Solo processor to a Core2Duo (whoever said they weren't upgradable never did any homework). The MacBook is about 3 years old now and is running 10.6.3...the latest OS release. The MacPro is a Quad Core Nehalem screamer with 8 Gigs of Ram, twin Terabyte drives and a 30" Cinema Display. And last but not least is my brand new iMac that just replaced my 9, yes NINE, year old G4 that I passed along to my sister's family.

Apple does what it does and does it very well. How else can you explain being out of debt and projected to be sitting on $45 billion in cash by the end of the year, and ranked third in market cap in the US and 56th in the Fortune 500? And a stock price of $245 per share. And still bringing new products to the market. Apple has its low priced devices. The Mini and the iPad. Most people seem to forget how portable the Mini is.

Meanwhile, beloved Dell, the once darlings of the media are sitting on a stock price of $30-35, have introduced...wait for it, colored plastic laptop computers.

Acer makes cheap consumer expendable devices. Period. Their monitors used to be sooooo good. Now we see them fail inside one year and have stopped ordering them.

Yet how much cash are they sitting on? Or should I say debt?