Research Firms Trim PC Sales Forecasts in Face of iPad Strength

Discussion in 'MacRumors.com News Discussion' started by MacRumors, Nov 29, 2010.

  1. MacRumors macrumors bot

    MacRumors

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    Research firm Gartner today announced that it is reducing its worldwide PC shipment estimates for 2010 and 2011 from earlier levels, citing increasing strength of media tablets such as the iPad. Gartner predicts that worldwide PC shipments will reach 352.4 million this year, an increase of 14.3% over last year but down from the 17.9% increase that had been predicted just two months ago. Similarly, 2011 shipments are now predicted to see 15.9% growth to 409 million units, down from 18.1% growth predicted previously.
    The report notes that tablets such as the iPad offer improved "on-the-go content consumption" and sees consumers looking to the devices as complements or even alternatives to traditional PCs. Even those customers who opt to use tablet as complements to traditional PCs are seen as likely to extend the replacement cycles of their existing computers as they embrace tablet technology, slowing growth in PC sales.

    Barron's reports that other research firms have reached similar conclusions, with Citigroup reporting that booming tablet sales will result in approximately 11 million fewer PCs sold next year than would otherwise have been expected. Overall, Citigroup predicts 2011 tablet sales of about 35 million units, with Apple's iPad representing about 75% of that total.

    Other analysts are predicting an even bigger bite from tablets, with some claiming overall tablet sales in the range of 70-100 million next year, with one PC unit sale estimated to be lost from every 2.5 tablet units sold.

    Article Link: Research Firms Trim PC Sales Forecasts in Face of iPad Strength
     
  2. archipellago macrumors 65816

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    #2
    if these figures turn out to be right then Apple (OSX) is looking at a worldwide market share of less than 3%.
     
  3. alent1234 macrumors 603

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    Jun 19, 2009
    #3
    yep, the post-computer world is here

    i was looking at a nice PC or iMac next year but no more. between iphones, x-box with kinect and the upcoming iPad i'll probably get a cheapo PC or laptop just because i don't have my own now. all of the computers at my house are employer issued

    don't see any point in spending a lot of money on a traditional computer
     
  4. Bernard SG macrumors 65816

    Bernard SG

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    #4
    What are you talking about?
     
  5. thetaylor13 macrumors regular

    thetaylor13

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    #5
    I'm curious of that also...?
     
  6. shartypants macrumors 6502a

    shartypants

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    #6
    Who really knows the exact figures... they use decimal points so they look like "experts".
     
  7. NebulaClash macrumors 68000

    NebulaClash

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    #7
    Before: iPad won't sell -- it's just a big iPod touch so it's just a toy

    After: PC sales will drop back as the amazing new iPad heralds the tablet era.
     
  8. E.Lizardo, Nov 29, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010

    E.Lizardo macrumors 68000

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    #8
    +1

    My guess is a troll attempt.
    Edit:
    my guess may have been right,in any case an Apple hater.From November 10:
    "any device using iOS is effectively useless for any sort of production environment.

    full OS and proper keys win every time."
    and lots more like this.
    not worth anybody's time(including his own)
     
  9. WildCowboy Administrator/Editor

    WildCowboy

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    #9
    I assume he's referring to Apple's reported Mac sales of 10.3 million through the third quarter of this year (2.94 million + 3.47 million + 3.89 million), in light of total predicted PC shipments of 352.4 million. If Apple snags 3.8 million Mac sales this quarter though, that would be 4% share for the year.

    (Yes, there are differences in the way different firms and companies count things, so it's not entirely exact to compare Apple's shipment estimates with those of Gartner, and Apple's financial quarters don't exactly line up with the calendar, but it's a ballpark estimate.)
     
  10. PeterQVenkman macrumors 68020

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    #10
    The only thing holding me back from getting an iPad is that the iPad 2 isn't out yet. ;)
     
  11. uraniumwilly macrumors 6502

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    #11
    Something I recall, it was the Nelson Muntz "Ha Ha!" from teeming, sneering mass that thought that Apple and iPad, when first introduced, was obviously a flop and a ridiculously stupid move on the part of Apple.

    So, ahem, to you unimaginative disbelievers, uh, Suck it.

    Ahem.
     
  12. Azathoth macrumors 6502a

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    #12
    For the average consumer - most have a PC that does what they need it to. My 3 year old Core 2 Duo runs well enough, most people don't play high-end games, or have a console to play games (who has the patience for Ultima VII anymore?). Same for business. Linux runs fine on a Pentium 4 and apart from FEM simulations which I run on an 8-core server, there's no need to have a top of the line machine. As for general business users there's even less of an incentive to upgrade. Windows 7 runs fine on 2GB / 1.66GHz machine. SL is fine on a Core 2 Duo.

    Tablets are low cost (relative to income) thing-a-ma-jigs and people like gadgets. A newer PC, even one that's twice as fast, isn't cool or interesting. Tablets are. The iPad is.

    Having said that, I still can't think of a personal use case for an iPad (I'd rather buy an MBAir), but what do I know, I don't have a TV either.

    (MBP15 matte i5 owner)
     
  13. mygoldens macrumors regular

    mygoldens

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    #13
    Well

    I know it does not stop me from having a regular Mac along with the iPad.

    I say if more people use Macs vs PCs, I am all for it.
     
  14. ChazUK macrumors 603

    ChazUK

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    #14
    Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; U; Android 2.2; en-gb; GT-P1000 Build/FROYO) AppleWebKit/533.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile Safari/533.1)

    I've been hooked on my Tab since getting it. Not having to sit at a desktop or having a laptop burning my legs whilst browsing on a larger screen is liberating.

    Some may cry that tablet devices are dumbed down devices but they do serve their purpose and will fit in with some lifestyles. :)

    The future is looking good for casual types.
     
  15. Lesser Evets macrumors 68040

    Lesser Evets

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    #15
    Total garbage. These guys threw darts at a board.

    The iPad will become more and more capable and by 2014 it will be such a worthy computing device that it will easily displace 25% of PC units sold.

    Assuming it is still the best per price. Others will aid in that too, obviously. I know several people that want to replace their laptops with iPads but are waiting for the upgrade to come out next year. I'm in the same boat: bye bye all except the big floor Mac used for art/image/print work once the iPad becomes a little more capable.
     
  16. HiRez, Nov 29, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010

    HiRez macrumors 603

    HiRez

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    #16
    35 million total tablets sold for 2011 is a VERY low estimate. Apple is probably going to sell close to 10 million iPads just in this holiday quarter alone.

    EDIT: Also, slightly off-topic, they are going to sell a TON of the new MacBook Airs, and I suppose some could opt for those instead of an iPad. All you have to do is look into an Apple store and see what people are playing with the most.
     
  17. alent1234 macrumors 603

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    #17
    most people don't have consoles? each one has an installed base in the tens of millions. the kinect is predicted to sell 5 million units by the end of 2010 which is about as good a release as the iPad.

    for us with kids there are a bunch of crappy toys like leapfrog readers where you pay $40 or so to buy in and $10 or more for add ons. by the time you add it all up you might as well buy an ipad which gives you more value
     
  18. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

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    #18
    By that argument Smart phone should of be displacing computers.

    The reason I choose smart phones is they show a clear limitation of the form factor. It is not the power in them but a limitation of the form factor. They are more powerful than computers were 10 years ago yet due to the form factor there is a lot less than can do.

    Hence the reason 10% seems pretty likely is the tablet form factor is going to be what limits its growth for the large part. It is to limited on storage, attaching other things to it.
    Touch screen keyboards are good for quickly things but for anything longer it is another story. This is easy to see proof of it just by looking at people who have switch from hardware keyboard smart phone (for example blackberry) to a touch screen only one. The length and how often they write longer emails drops a lot. It becomes quick replays but they will not type out long emails any more. Same effect will happen on a tablet.
     
  19. greenmeanie macrumors 65816

    greenmeanie

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    #19
    They are a toy.
    Any real work you will still need a computer.

    Of course they will sell some to people looking for attention from others.
    I never even heard of this Gartner company before this post and I am suppose to trust their word.
     
  20. Consultant macrumors G5

    Consultant

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    #20
    iPad runs iOS, not OS X.


    Have you been into board rooms of mutli-million dollar or multi-billion dollar companies? By your rational, many executives running those companies are all using "toys" for work.
     
  21. NebulaClash macrumors 68000

    NebulaClash

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    #21
    Agreed. In fact, my personal prediction, made in February of this year, is that by 2020 the majority of consumer computer purchases will be tablets. It will become the default format for mom and pop purchases, with only specialists needing a laptop or desktop.

    Remember the original iPod from 2001? See how the iPod touch blows it away from every angle? That's what tablets of 2020 will be like compared to today's iPad. When you go to sneer at my prediction, keep that dynamic in mind for that is what I am imagining.

    We are in year one of what will become known as the Decade of the Tablet.
     
  22. Don Kosak macrumors 6502a

    Don Kosak

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    #22
    I still get a kick when analysts call the iPad a "Media Tablet". I think they're still underestimating the impact these computers will have. Very few people I know who own iPads only use it to watch movies, play music, or read books.

    I'd say that movie playing, and book reading are probably just 20% of what people use iPad's for.

    The App Store reports by third parties show Productivity and Utility Apps way out in front, followed closely by News, and Games.

    I think iPad will take a little bite out of sales of portable game systems (and even consoles if AirPlay takes off).

    I think iPad is already taking a pretty big bite out of portable media player and netbook sales.
     
  23. benpatient macrumors 68000

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    #23
    i had the "pleasure" of using an ipad for 4 days during the holidays when visiting family. They recently adopted a "don't pay for regular internet" policy in their home, and somehow the ipad's 3G connection didn't get cut in the process, so the ipad's 3G connection was the only internet in the house. I had to send someone a list of supplies, and I tried typing up the list while looking back and forth between gmail and another browser window and copy/pasting URLs to recipes and instructions.

    It took me about an hour to do what should have taken me 10 minutes. I had a perfectly good macbook sitting on the table next to me, but it was useless because there was no unlocked wifi signal in their house. I should have gotten in the car and driven to starbucks. I would have gotten done faster.

    The only thing that I found the ipad good for was reading news websites and playing Cut the Rope.

    For 799 dollars, I think I could find a better way to play silly puzzle games.
     
  24. LagunaSol macrumors 601

    LagunaSol

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    #24
    Newsflash: 90%+ of the populace does not do "real work" on their home computers.

    Goodbye credibility.
     
  25. jimmyjoemccrow macrumors 6502

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    #25
    Analysts are not magicians. They can't predict the future. They make educated guesses and I am sure they don't keep track of how often their guesses were accurate or how closely they matched the outcome.

    Why does it take an analyst to say "PC sales might drop now that there is another competing form factor"? I bet they didn't make any prediction like this until they saw actual sales figures for the iPad.

    Analysts opinions are about as useful as betting odds.
     

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