Research Firms Trim PC Sales Forecasts in Face of iPad Strength

[TMay]

By that argument Smart phone should of be displacing computers.

The reason I choose smart phones is they show a clear limitation of the form factor. It is not the power in them but a limitation of the form factor. They are more powerful than computers were 10 years ago yet due to the form factor there is a lot less than can do.

Hence the reason 10% seems pretty likely is the tablet form factor is going to be what limits its growth for the large part. It is to limited on storage, attaching other things to it.
Touch screen keyboards are good for quickly things but for anything longer it is another story. This is easy to see proof of it just by looking at people who have switch from hardware keyboard smart phone (for example blackberry) to a touch screen only one. The length and how often they write longer emails drops a lot. It becomes quick replays but they will not type out long emails any more. Same effect will happen on a tablet.

Some of us can extrapolate the current tablet capabilities forward a few years and see some extensive content creation, storage (more flash memory and cloud backup) and connection (high bandwidth WiFi and LTE plus Light Peak) capabilities. Demand driven I would say.

"This is easy to see proof of it just by looking at people who have switch from hardware keyboard smart phone (for example blackberry) to a touch screen only one. The length and how often they write longer emails drops a lot. It becomes quick replays but they will not type out long emails any more. Same effect will happen on a tablet."

Yes this will happen, but I would call the death of rambling and verbose emails a positive, not a negative. Either way, there isn't any constraint of people authoring books on tablets either, especially with connected keyboards.

 

[NebulaClash]

Lots of content gets generated on iPads. There is one group standing around saying, "You can't do that on an iPad." And then there is the other group actually using iPads to do just that.

Using a mouse, while essential for a few operations, is bad for much that we use it for. It's an abstraction, an added step, a middleman in our lives. Direct touch operations make so much sense once you get used to it, you never want to go back to using a mouse again. So once the current generation of users gets used to touch, we're going to see amazing productivity with tablets that will become harder to accomplish with a mouse and keyboard.

C'mon, guys, you need to show more imagination. You are sounding like PC manufacturers who are only now dimly perceiving their future drying up. Don't be like them. Realize all that CAN be done with an iPad instead of negatively focusing on the things you can't do with them. Nobody is taking your laptops away for those operations that make sense with keyboard and mouse, but don't ignore the way tablets make people's lives easier too.

 

[jimmyjoemccrow]

Lots of content gets generated on iPads. There is one group standing around saying, "You can't do that on an iPad." And then there is the other group actually using iPads to do just that.

Using a mouse, while essential for a few operations, is bad for much that we use it for. It's an abstraction, an added step, a middleman in our lives. Direct touch operations make so much sense once you get used to it, you never want to go back to using a mouse again. So once the current generation of users gets used to touch, we're going to see amazing productivity with tablets that will become harder to accomplish with a mouse and keyboard.

C'mon, guys, you need to show more imagination. You are sounding like PC manufacturers who are only now dimly perceiving their future drying up. Don't be like them. Realize all that CAN be done with an iPad instead of negatively focusing on the things you can't do with them. Nobody is taking your laptops away for those operations that make sense with keyboard and mouse, but don't ignore the way tablets make people's lives easier too.

Utter balls. Fingers are an imprecise method for interaction. They require everything to be Fisher Price size and a lot of scrolling, pinching and zooming to navigate the web. An action such as copying and pasting becomes more hassle, games become especially bad.

How can a lot of content be created on an iPad when they use cutdown versions of desktop apps? Do you think a webdesigner is going to use the iPad instead of dreamweaver? How big an image can be manipulated on an iPad? How big a movie can you edit?

 

[foiden]

I will have to agree. I generate content from the iPad. Whether it is music or iWork stuff, I've used it as a content creator more than I thought I would. Maybe not on the level as a laptop or desktop (as I only program on those), it still can be an outlet for light office and creative utilities.

But here's the rub. All the stuff that I particularly demand laptop and desktops for, are mainly the things that a great majority of users don't do. Contrary to popular belief, most of us don't design web pages or code programs.

On the other hand, I also don't believe that the dip in PC sales is due much to iPad. I think it has more to do with itself and a general flattening of sales due to volume. Like everybody has some PC, but not everybody has an iPad. The iPad consitutes something new, and (fortunately for iOS, surprisingly) has stuff and an experience not readily available on other platforms of its relative size.

It's even been made a clever (multi-board game) perfect for the holidays when families get together and play them. Do we have to find the old closet to pull out a bunch of board games and try to gather up all the pieces and such? Nope. Whip out the iPad and some $4 or less game in which we all can participate and just get right to playing with no setup required.

 

[NebulaClash]

Utter balls. Fingers are an imprecise method for interaction. They require everything to be Fisher Price size and a lot of scrolling, pinching and zooming to navigate the web. An action such as copying and pasting becomes more hassle, games become especially bad.

How can a lot of content be created on an iPad when they use cutdown versions of desktop apps? Do you think a webdesigner is going to use the iPad instead of dreamweaver? How big an image can be manipulated on an iPad? How big a movie can you edit?

Wow, my personal experience invalidates almost every one of your points. I hate browsing the Web on anything EXCEPT my iPad because it is so natural on it. Navigating the Web is a dream. Copying and pasting is far easier than on the iPhone and is quite easy to use. Games are so much fun on the iPad. There are very nice Web site design tools for the iPad.

I honestly haven't a clue what you are talking about. My use of the iPad is nothing at all like you imagine it to be. Remember, I've never said to throw away your laptops/desktops, or that they will disappear. Use the right tool for the job, I say, and some jobs cry out for the iPad.

 

[HiRez]

Newsflash: 90%+ of the populace does not do "real work" on their home computers.

LOL, true. I love all these power users dismissing tablets as "toys" that you can't get "real work" done on. So what. People like them and they will sell, it doesn't matter how you classify it. In case you haven't noticed there have been a lot of PS2/3, XBOX, and Nintendo DS and Wiis sold as well, I don't see people complaining about them not being able to do "real work" on them.

And with its great battery life, small size, and flexibility (email, web, reading, games, etc.) the iPad is the perfect travel companion for many people.

 

[hexcalibur]

How can a lot of content be created on an iPad when they use cutdown versions of desktop apps? Do you think a webdesigner is going to use the iPad instead of dreamweaver? How big an image can be manipulated on an iPad? How big a movie can you edit?

The poverty of your imagination saddens me. I have a desk and a chair, so you're saying I don't need a couch? Or that if I get a couch I'll throw away my desk and chair? Many of my computer needs require a big screen and a powerful processor, and for those I have a desktop. Many of my computer needs are pretty modest -- reading, web browsing, email, word processing -- and for those the iPad is perfect. I used to carry a laptop around to meetings, but the iPad fills that role perfectly.

If you forced me to choose just one computer I'd have to go with my desktop because it's able to accomplish some critical tasks the iPad can't handle. But the optimal solution to my particular computing needs is *both*.

It baffles me that this seems so hard for people to understand.

 

[Cabbit]

Do you think a webdesigner is going to use the iPad instead of dreamweaver? How big an image can be manipulated on an iPad? How big a movie can you edit?

Heads up we don't use Dreamweaver ether. And the iPad is great for laying out designs in the same way i used to use paper.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Newsflash: 90%+ of the populace does not do "real work" on their home computers.

.

Lets see tabet is not good for writing emails. Most of the population does that.
Good for reading but not really for replaying.

tablet is not good for doing homework on that falls under real work in my book.
Most of the population I would agrue does some type of real work with a computer.

Tablet lay out has some big limitation that doing more than casual browsing on the internet.

I agree that tablet will extend the life cycle of a computer but can not replace one at home. I sure as hell would not want to use a tablet to try to pay my bills. Finger is rather inpercices t for selecting text. my iPod touch drives me nuts if I am trying to get to an exact location in any text I have typed on it. Hell if I need to pay a bill quickly I grab my blackberry because I can get to the exect location in text fields on it that I need. Not something I have ever really been able to do on my iPod.

 

[goobot]

The only thing holding me back from getting an iPad is that the iPad 2 isn't out yet.

trust me get the ipad 3

 

[foiden]

I wouldn't use the tablet to pay my bills for multiple reasons, actually. It's less to do with a screen, more to having access to a regular file system the way regular computers do. Also, having to deal with some more unusual screen validations (and web text entry) that may not be compatible with iPad safari, and the fact that I want my payment receipts stored in my computer folder to be time-machined or backed up, the traditional way.

Doesn't have much to do with a lack of a keyboard, as there's a number of ways (including cheap) to use a keyboard with the iPad. My friend has one with a keyboard that also acts as a slimline carrying case for the iPad itself.

Oddly enough, the main thing lacking with the iPad is that some important forums have text entry, exactly like this site, but is not compatible with iOS Safari. Tapping the text field somehow never lets you enter text or bring up the keyboard. I'm not sure what programming is blocking that. That alone, gets on my nerves that I should require another machine just to handle something I would normally not associate with flash or silverlight. It's just a forum thing.

Heck. One of the offenders is Comcast. It was a bit harsh because Comcast went down last night (actually, one of the major DSNs did). Their phone number was not working, or nobody could contact them. So the only place to turn to was 3G and the Comcast site. Alas, the text entry box (almost exactly like this one) doesn't allow text entry from iOS devices. It's just broken. And I've seen plenty of others that do the same. Still, I couldn't enter text for the one site with which I could contact Comcast with. Fortunately, I could still see twitter feeds, and it took customer tweets to give me the answers with which I can get an immediate fix before Comcast fixed their DSNs.

 

[Thunderhawks]

35 million total tablets sold for 2011 is a VERY low estimate. Apple is probably going to sell close to 10 million iPads just in this holiday quarter alone.

EDIT: Also, slightly off-topic, they are going to sell a TON of the new MacBook Airs, and I suppose some could opt for those instead of an iPad. All you have to do is look into an Apple store and see what people are playing with the most.

Playing with both at the store, I am torn between having a real keyboard and a protected screen (Somewhat) and the better portability of just a one piece ipad.

ipad does all I do at night. e-mails websites, texting done
The real serious stuff happens at work and like everybody my MacBook Pro does everything else even with c2d chips.

 

[jimmyjoemccrow]

The poverty of your imagination saddens me. I have a desk and a chair, so you're saying I don't need a couch? Or that if I get a couch I'll throw away my desk and chair? Many of my computer needs require a big screen and a powerful processor, and for those I have a desktop. Many of my computer needs are pretty modest -- reading, web browsing, email, word processing -- and for those the iPad is perfect. I used to carry a laptop around to meetings, but the iPad fills that role perfectly.

If you forced me to choose just one computer I'd have to go with my desktop because it's able to accomplish some critical tasks the iPad can't handle. But the optimal solution to my particular computing needs is *both*.

It baffles me that this seems so hard for people to understand.

Most of those activities you describe are consumption, not creation. When I think of creation I am not thinking about the home user and his collection of holiday snaps.

 

[foiden]

iPads are also safer under adverse conditions. They're completely sealed components are generally better for clumsy folk (especially if they go keeping drinks nearby). A Bluetooth keyboard case, adds a keyboard and case at the same time.

Now I'm one of the crazier folks who have done whole documents and spreadsheets with the iPad. Works pretty well. I use the iwork web cloud to distribute the documents.

My only computer? Absolutely not. If you have computing needs, you would want something else. It makes a good light tool, and consumption device. I tend to rather use it for web sites and youtube and such. Mostly because of the convenience, size, and amazing battery life even when doing such things. Some of those functions are much more of a battery drain on other devices. But you can float around with an iPad, consume all day, and not think about plugging it in. Maybe tomorrow.

 

[seashellz]

if these figures turn out to be right then Apple (OSX) is looking at a worldwide market share of less than 3%.

you gotta be blithering idiot of a fool/tool

APPLE sales passed 10% marketshare long ago

 

[HLdan]

if these figures turn out to be right then Apple (OSX) is looking at a worldwide market share of less than 3%.

Wow, that time-out didn't last long enough, sadly.

 

[paul4339]

....
I never even heard of this Gartner company before this post ....

is this sarcasm?

P.

 

[Xtremehkr]

I know many many people whose use of a computer involves browsing the internet, listening to music, light gaming, and viewing media content.

The iPad does those basic things very well and can do some heavier lifting if needed.

This doesn't sound unrealistic, for some people an iPad is all they need for what they do at home.

For others, me included, an iPad liberates me from my desk because I can't use my 27" on the couch.

 

[jimmyjoemccrow]

Wow, my personal experience invalidates almost every one of your points. I hate browsing the Web on anything EXCEPT my iPad because it is so natural on it. Navigating the Web is a dream. Copying and pasting is far easier than on the iPhone and is quite easy to use. Games are so much fun on the iPad. There are very nice Web site design tools for the iPad.

I honestly haven't a clue what you are talking about. My use of the iPad is nothing at all like you imagine it to be. Remember, I've never said to throw away your laptops/desktops, or that they will disappear. Use the right tool for the job, I say, and some jobs cry out for the iPad.

Don't you ever open more than one page? How natural is it to switch between those? How can you describe the laborious process of dragging bars to select text as more natural than dragging the mouse? What if a page is not optimised for iPad screen size?

Games are dire on touchscreens. With only a few exceptions your fingers inevitably restrict your view of the screen. On screen joypads do not provide any tactile feedback for you instinctively to know where your finger is and how much pressure you have applied. Tilting only works when the iPad is at a certain angle or you end up steering wildly.

If there are web design apps for iPad I can't find them, and in any case, building a website from a template barely qualifies.

If you think using your fingers to control is somehow more instincive than using a keyboard and mouse you should go back to eating your food with only your hands.

 

[foiden]

Not more intuitive, but definitely a second to *other* input methods when dealing with desktop stuff.

The game inputs are a good point, for those requiring a d-pad like interface. However, there are a lot of games specifically made with iPads in mind. With the advent of multi-touch, there are actually some RTS games that have better control than the mouse/keyboard ones except for one thing. Most of them don't have some sort of user-location-settable hotkey for which to reselect previous groups with. Outside of that, they've made some RTS style games in which you can actually manage multiple units going different locations with a level of speed currently not even possible for most with a keyboard and mouse. Or at least, have to work a lot harder to accomplish. Between iPad or anything else, for Plants vs. Zombies, I'd pick the iPad everytime. (I have it for iPad, computer, and 360 (for which I wouldn't have if they didn't add in all those extra modes exclusive to that version)).

Board games are definitely iPad-friendly. So the genre often commands what hardware is more optimal. And the food analogy is great here. It depends on the food. Some food is easier and more precise with hands (multiple digits) than with utensils. Some games are like those pieces of Fried Chicken (or a good turkey leg) in which utensils are the bad way to go. Others are more like Rice, steak, and vegetables. You want the utensils.

 

[SockRolid]

It's not just the price. It's the experience.

... The iPad will become more and more capable and by 2014 it will be such a worthy computing device that it will easily displace 25% of PC units sold.

Assuming it is still the best per price. ...

iPad has the best bang for the buck now, and Apple seems to be in position to keep it there. But that's the least important selling point. The overall experience is the "killer feature," and it'll be nearly impossible for competitors to equal it. They're fighting tooth and nail for the #2 spot and the whole world knows it.

Apple has worked very hard to become the world's biggest consumer of flash RAM. That gives them the purchasing power to essentially control the price of flash RAM. Of course, the screen and system-on-chip A4 cost more (than 16GB of flash RAM) but Apple no doubt has deals in place to reduce their costs for those components too. The net result is a high profit margin even with the relatively low retail price of iPad.

But, as we all know by now, making cool hardware is just the first baby step. Software is the hard thing to do. Just ask the JooJoo guys who mashed up a device, beat iPad to market, and had an absolutely terrible OS with almost no apps.

Just ask Google's Sergey Brin, who says that Chrome OS is their tablet OS of the future, and doesn't recommend using Android on tablets at all. Android simply isn't designed for tablets. It's a knee-jerk reaction to iPhone and iOS (and it was originally designed to be a Blackberry killer, running on small-screen phones with physical keyboards.)

So now what? You've got the hardware and software (including an App Store and as many apps as you can get developers to write). Well, now it's time to perfect the user experience. Time to tweak the hardware and software to give the best performance, best ease-of-use, and to create a compelling experience for your users.

Good luck with that. It took Apple years to get iPhone and iOS to where they are now, and they're still going full speed ahead with refinements and features. Everyone else is simply experimenting, and their customers are guinea pigs.

 

[LagunaSol]

My guess is a troll attempt.

This thread will be full of them. Which inspires me to thank MacRumors for implementing a new forum software change requires yet another mouse click to add someone to my Ignore list.

I wish MacRumors would make troll management easier, not more difficult.

 

[NebulaClash]

If you think using your fingers to control is somehow more instincive than using a keyboard and mouse you should go back to eating your food with only your hands.

Do you eat a hamburger or a hot dog with a knife and fork? No, it's more natural to use your hands. We only use utensils for food where it's more efficient to do so, and that's precisely what I said about the keyboard and mouse -- when it makes sense, use them. But it is an abstraction, an added step, and when it makes sense to dispose of them it's madness to keep using them. It's like eating a hot dog on a bun with a knife and fork -- possible but needless.

So yes, you can find lots of examples where it makes sense to use a laptop instead -- which is what I keep saying. But what you are ignoring are the times when the iPad makes more sense.

Go ahead, keep scoffing. The world is already passing you by.

 

[SockRolid]

One more thing...

I know many many people whose use of a computer involves browsing the internet, listening to music, light gaming, and viewing media content.

The iPad does those basic things very well and can do some heavier lifting if needed.

This doesn't sound unrealistic, for some people an iPad is all they need for what they do at home.

For others, me included, an iPad liberates me from my desk because I can't use my 27" on the couch.

Well said. I would add that the people who do all those basic things are probably not computer literate, and are probably annoyed and slightly afraid of all the ridiculous complexity that computer literate people have learned to tolerate. If they can avoid using file systems, Start Buttons with cascading menus (on Windows), folders full of applications, Docks, Trays, drivers, etc. then they *will* avoid using all that.

Apple has simplified browsing, email, texting, Tweeting, and all that light internet usage. Mainstream OSes, including Windows and Mac OS X, haven't really changed much since the '80s. Neither has the human brain. So Apple has taken the next logical step in the simplification of computing with iOS and the iDevices.

 

[rjohnstone]

The biggest draw back to the iPad is the simple fact that you NEED another PC (Mac or Windows) to maintain the darn thing.
Since you cannot update the device directly, you still need to have a computer around to update it.
When will Apple recognize this and allow direct OS updates.

(stepping on soapbox now)
This is what also irritates me about my iPhone.
I can only update it via a my PC and I can only do it from the same one every time.
I've got 5 computers in my house but I'm stuck with only being able to use one for syncing or performing iOS updates.
Give us OTA updates (delta, not entire wipe and reload) and let us put our sync data in the cloud and not stuck in iTunes on ONE machine that could crash and force you to redo everything all over again.

(stepping off my soapbox now)