Research Firms Trim PC Sales Forecasts in Face of iPad Strength

[silentnite]

It's all about mobility & ease of use, low price helps out as well. The way I see it. If you got a mac mini and an ipad you should be good to go. Why spend any more money, save when you can.

 

[zim]

The iPad, and my assumption is that all other tablets, is dependent on a PC for syncing and backing up. So I doubt there will be a drop and if there is then maybe there will also be a rise in desktops like iMacs and Mac Minis?? I know of at least one person who has an iPod Touch and they never connect to a computer... I guess some people are okay without backing up or maybe they just don't know or care?

I am sure all that was already stated elsewhere on this thread.

 

[Thunderhawks]

Do you eat a hamburger or a hot dog with a knife and fork? No, it's more natural to use your hands. We only use utensils for food where it's more efficient to do so, and that's precisely what I said about the keyboard and mouse -- when it makes sense, use them. But it is an abstraction, an added step, and when it makes sense to dispose of them it's madness to keep using them. It's like eating a hot dog on a bun with a knife and fork -- possible but needless.

So yes, you can find lots of examples where it makes sense to use a laptop instead -- which is what I keep saying. But what you are ignoring are the times when the iPad makes more sense.

Go ahead, keep scoffing. The world is already passing you by.

I hear the next ipad will have a built in napkin holder.
Don't want to get the screen greasy

For all who say typing is not so efficient, I don't think typing will be part of the future.

Already now I use DRAGON dictation on my iphone to text and e-mail and it works pretty well. Speak, cut, paste, send
So, we'll all talk into our devices and then only correct what doesn't fit.
Doesn't take that long!

 

[archipellago]

I assume he's referring to Apple's reported Mac sales of 10.3 million through the third quarter of this year (2.94 million + 3.47 million + 3.89 million), in light of total predicted PC shipments of 352.4 million. If Apple snags 3.8 million Mac sales this quarter though, that would be 4% share for the year.

(Yes, there are differences in the way different firms and companies count things, so it's not entirely exact to compare Apple's shipment estimates with those of Gartner, and Apple's financial quarters don't exactly line up with the calendar, but it's a ballpark estimate.)

winner!

well actually i was looking at apples

14 million units vs 352 units in the market = 3.97%

so your 4% is more accurate and the years don't exactly line up but the point is valid.

just goes to show the rubbish that Jobs and Cook come up with..

'outgrew the market'

'momentum'

really is rubbish, and hopefully gives perspective.


As for Tablets, well its crippled for production environments by OS and form factor limitations.

needs a proper OS with file structures, saveable areas etc.


of course Apple wants you in the cloud using a tablet as a fancy remote control with a GUI controlling a server...but thats another story....

 

[archipellago]

It's all about mobility & ease of use, low price helps out as well. The way I see it. If you got a mac mini and an ipad you should be good to go. Why spend any more money, save when you can.

apart from the mini bit I agree.

to save money, don't buy Apple computers.

any $200 box can run iTunes (bloated as it is) to sync the content.

 

[blackpond]

If the market followed the lead of nay sayers, "real work" would still be done without the aid of a computer AT ALL.... and all the negative implications on current technology that would exist without any advances in computing.

 

[firewood]

By that argument Smart phone should of be displacing computers.

For a percentage of the population, they already do. And that percentage plus the percentage of people using tablets will be increasing in the coming years.

They said that minicomputers were toys and would never replace mainframes. They were mostly wrong. They said that PCs were toys and would never replace minicomputers. Wrong again. Now the kids are acting just like their grandparents, and saying that mobile devices are toys and will never replace PCs. I expect that prediction to soon prove to also be wrong.

I know of several large corporations that are switching from upgrading PCs and laptops on everybody's desks to using thin clients and iPads with Bluetooth keyboards. The "desktops" are being completely virtualized. It's already happening.

 

[archipellago]

you gotta be blithering idiot of a fool/tool

APPLE sales passed 10% marketshare long ago

Hmmm.... let me help...

1/ Take the number of machines Apple themselves announced at their last 'pat on the back session'

2/ Divide that number by how many machines will be sold in the world this year (from the first post in this thread)

3/ Make that number a percentage....

actually the figure is 4% not 3% but hopefully you get the point. feel free to PM me the apology.

Funny how much of that spin from the keynotes actually hits home!

'The bigger the lie, the more the people will believe it..'

Wow, that time-out didn't last long enough, sadly.

Posting truth is against the rules now?

sorry if I upset your ego..

 

[firewood]

if these figures turn out to be right then Apple (OSX) is looking at a worldwide market share of less than 3%.

1) It's more than 3%. Plus, as an OS X software developer, I include iOS, since the owners of devices running that platform also buy software (lots).

2) And Apple has apparently picked the profitable 3+%. Why should Apple make hardware for the 80+% of people who won't pay dirt?

 

[archipellago]

1) It's more than 3%. Plus, as an OS X software developer, I include iOS, since the owners of devices running that platform also buy software (lots).

2) And Apple has apparently picked the profitable 3+%. Why should Apple make hardware for the 80+% of people who won't pay dirt?

1/ yes its 4%..sorry. Good for you to include iOS..but unless its available on a laptop or notebook then no one else does...in this context.

If you included iOS then you would need to include Android, and that wouldn't look good either.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...pass_apples_ios_nokias_symbian_in_europe.html

and yes iOS users buy software...but lots don't.

http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/74856/20101022/ipad-apps-third-download.htm

and what about all the jailbreakers?


2/ Big assumption right there. Profitable 3% or blindly loyal 3%?

I suspect lots of successful and affluent people avoid Apple computers becasue of the silly prices, but would and are prepared to pay for software.

 

[firewood]

If you included iOS then you would need to include Android, and that wouldn't look good either.

Actually, it looks great. Talk to some cross-platform mobile developers about what percentage of their actual current sales are from Android users compared with iOS users. Talk to developers about how iPad users, in particular, seem, on average, to be willing to pay more for apps.

... and yes iOS users buy software...but lots don't.

And it appears that an even higher percentage of Android users don't as well. Advantage: OS X devs... at least, for now.

 

[KeriJane]

So it looks like the iPad is not only decimating Netbook sales but PC sales as a whole?

Yay!

That fits in with my experience: The iPad does what most people I know use a computer for and does it better.
Add a BT keyboard for those that can't stand the onscreen KB and lookout.

"Not so great at Multitasking"? Most of my friends don't MT either. They STILL use their perfectly capable Windows boxes to run one window at a time, carefully closing the program before doing something else.

The iPad is a joy to use for many tasks. For a great many people, it's all they need.

Once the iPad gets an iSight camera, lookout. That'll take another huge bite out of laptop sales.

Have Fun,
Happy Debate Monday!
Keri

 

[Mainsail]

I think PCs are starting to get to a more mature stage of development, while mobile devices are evolving more rapidly. So, folks don't need to replace their laptops/desktops as often.....kinda like appliances.

Nevertheless, people might want a second device for the household. For many folks, the iPad is a great solution. Why spend the money on a bulky laptop with capabilities that you never use. Most people have modest computing needs, and the iPad meets these needs perfectly. It is also very light and comfortable to use while away from a desk or traveling. The battery life is incredible. With iOS 4.2, my iPad has become more useful and enjoyable. In the 7 months that we have owned an iPad, our MacBook has never left the docking station at home.

I wish the naysayers could at least acknowledge that video editing, CAD, and the like don't necessarily represent the majority of users' needs. Without context, the discussion is ridiculous.

 

[JAT]

"Not so great at Multitasking"? Most of my friends don't MT either. They STILL use their perfectly capable Windows boxes to run one window at a time, carefully closing the program before doing something else.

Yep. I find it hilarious at work watching other people "work" when I'm helping at their desk. And they wonder why I'm fast at my work.

 

[groovebuster]

A little story from real life...

My wife was always a die-hard fan of her MacBook. She used it all the time and everywhere. She brought it also to university on a regular basis for working on papers.

Since the iBook G4 of our oldest 9 y.o. daughter finally broke-down and she needed a new computer in some way, we were thinking about getting a new MacBook Pro or Air for my wife and that our daughter (she is in 4th grade) would inherit the old one from my wife...

Now it happened, that my wife got an iPad from me as surprise around 6 weeks ago (shortly after I got one myself and I never could get it out of her hands). She fell in love with it right away and just loves it for browsing the net and reading emails! She is also playing little games on it, reads books & PDFs, does research, uses it as a remote control for iTunes on her computer, etc... etc...

So we tried something out. She got my "old" 20" Cinema Display (still working perfectly fine) at her desk and a regular keyboard with a Mighty Mouse. Before she also tended to work on papers anywhere in the house: on the couch... in bed... But with a big screen, a real keyboard and a mouse she rediscovered how convenient it is to work at a real desk when you have the right and ergonomical equipment (no, laptops alone can not replace a real ergonomical work station, that's why all the pros connect a monitor, keyboard and mouse when they are in the office).

As a result, she let her MacBook connected to the screen and the keyboard all the time and exclusively worked at her desk, never moving her MacBook aynmore. It literally collected dust where she put it. Also for university she didn't really bring it anymore, since she could bring her iPad (smaller and not as heavy) instead for taking short notes and reading.

A few days ago she told me: "You know what? I actually don't really need a Laptop anymore... For serious work I sit down at my desk and for everything else I have my iPad!"

I still have a Mac mini Core Duo that was still waiting for a new purpose (I bought it back then as a little seperate dev/test machine and server). So far we didn't give it to our daughter, because my wife was occupying the 20" Cinema Display and I didn't want to buy a new display before we figured out what exactly was going to happen...

My wife said that the only thing she is doing at the computer now is writing papers, creating presentations, surfing the net (including writing e-mails if they require more extensive typing), and taking care of her media files in iTunes and iPhoto.

You know what? The Mac mini is still more than good enough for these tasks and will be for a long time to come (I replaced the original HD by a fast 320GB HD a while ago). So she decided to take the Mac mini instead of getting a new MacBook and our daughter got my wife's old MacBook. Everybody is happy now without buying a new computer at all and there is no plan to buy one any time soon. For my business.. well, that is a different story. But we are talking about private use here.

If they say that people will postpone buying new computers... that is exactly what we are experiencing at the moment. I can imagine that the Mac mini will be still good for another 2 or 3 years (at least) because it is basically degraded to a typewriter and storage device (back to the roots...) since my wife is owning an iPad now. They complement each other just perfectly.

And the kids? The are all over our iPads all the time anyway. Because for them it is also just a cool gaming device that is very easy to handle. And with it's touch screen and motion sensors so much more intuitive than an PC (no matter if Mac, Windows or any other OS). The little one is 6 and she uses the iPad so naturally, you wouldn't believe it. At a computer she still doesn't know what she is really doing there, it is too abstract. I can every well imagine that the kids will inherit our then "old" iPads when the time has come.

The traditional personal computer is technically mature and there is not much room for improvement anymore in the context it is used in by the regular user (I am not talking about power users who need the PC as a work horse 24/7 and crave for every little speed bump or improvement in their complex production environment). In the future PCs will be replaced more and more just because they are defective and not because they are 30% slower than the targeted new one. At least that's how it looks like in our reality...

groovebuster

 

[Jaysonsmith]

I am waiting for the iPad 2.

 

[groovebuster]

I suspect lots of successful and affluent people avoid Apple computers becasue of the silly prices, but would and are prepared to pay for software.

I don't get people like you... You hate Apple products but you still come to a place like MacRumors to provoke people with your anti-Apple attitude.

Actually especially successful and affluent people love Apple products. At least that is what I notice in my environment.

If you don't like Apple products, ignore them and don't use them. I also don't feel obliged to go to Windows forums and tell everybody how stupid they are for not using Macs. But I wouldn't anyway, because I don't care if they do or not. If they are happy with their choice, so be it. I only care if I am happy with MY choice and I don't need anybody to convince me that I am too stupid to know what the right choice for me actually is... Especially as an ITConsultant.

groovebuster

P.S.: FYI... the +10% market share are in the US. The market share you were talking about is world wide. Considering this I find 4% pretty impressive, since the Mac is not even sold in big parts of the world...

 

[smiddlehurst]

Utter balls. Fingers are an imprecise method for interaction. They require everything to be Fisher Price size and a lot of scrolling, pinching and zooming to navigate the web. An action such as copying and pasting becomes more hassle, games become especially bad.

How can a lot of content be created on an iPad when they use cutdown versions of desktop apps? Do you think a webdesigner is going to use the iPad instead of dreamweaver? How big an image can be manipulated on an iPad? How big a movie can you edit?

Okay, I'll take that one on.

First of all let's chuck out professional (i.e. you get paid for it) content creators. They CAN generate work on an iPad but frankly keyboard and mouse will be better for them in the long run for most tasks and I don't want to have to keep putting conditional statements in this to account for them.

So your average home user then. Given the software (and it's either available or would be simple to create) there's no reason whatsoever they can't (deep breath):

* Edit photos including all the standard adjustements found in iPhoto on OS X.
* Create and edit movies using an iPad version of iMovie.
* Create documents with decent layout options using Pages (and, if required, a bluetooth keyboard) or, for those who just want to write, it's a superb device for simply typing, again with a bluetooth keyboard if required, and not getting distracted.
* Audio mixing is certainly a possibility using something like Garageband
* Creating drawings is already a popular use of the iPad

There's a lot more I could put in there but you get the idea. For the normal home user the tools that either are already available or could easily be made available on the iPad are more than enough to achieve their goals. Professionals can choose to use them if they wish, although they may require or prefer keyboard / mouse interfaces instead. But here's the rub... profession users are VASTLY outnumbered when it comes to content creation by amateurs. There's an army of people out there taking photos, making movies and creating content for web sites that never go near the professional tools (hell, when it comes to web sites how much of it is created using web tools?) and for those the iPad (actually any tablet device for that matter) works just fine thanks.

As always it's different tools for different jobs but to claim that the iPad is useless for content creation is simply wrong. Oh, and about that gaming thing, you are aware that the iOS devices are rapidly becoming a major player in the gaming space right? This whole nonsense about a lack of physical controls really is just a hang up of the same people that whine about casual gamers destroying the so-called hardcore market (wrongly as it turns out but that's another discussion). Games work just fine on iOS provided the developer takes their time and tailors the gameplay and controls to the device rather than just raming in a virtual stick and calling it a day.

 

[gorgeousninja]

THis can't be right!?!

How can this be true? At the launch of the iPad there were hundreds of 'really knowledgeable' people all saying that the iPad would FAIL. And, there were hundreds more that said netbooks sales could never be affected by the iPad because it 'wasn't a computer'. Does this comprehensive evidence prove that actually they were all wrong?? Wow! and to think we all believed them....

 

[HLdan]

Posting truth is against the rules now?

sorry if I upset your ego..

HAHAHAHA, posting truth??? If you call constant flaming posting truth then yes you've succeeded. Honestly, why don't you quit while you're not ahead. You got timed-out for your usual flaming which IS against forum rules. Hopefully your next journey down moderation road will be a ban. Nobody here agrees nor cares about anything you write. I've received quite a few PM's about you from other forum members and they all know who you are. The miserable part is you're an Apple hater, yet you come here to preach about it. A Windows forum might suit you better as you'll be more at home with miserable people that actually hate their PC's and secretly want a Mac but are too afraid to admit they spent their money on PC junk and Windows 7 junk. I do realize that Windows forums are boring and there's nothing to talk about other than problems.

Sorry man if the truth upsets you. That's the way things are.

 

[NebulaClash]

The little one is 6 and she uses the iPad so naturally, you wouldn't believe it.

I believe it. Kids gravitate toward iPads. And why not? Unlike a computer that requires training in its artificial methods of input, the iPad is as natural as can be. Kids just get it. And when this generation grows up with touch devices, the personal computer era will come to an end and the touch era will begin.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

For a percentage of the population, they already do. And that percentage plus the percentage of people using tablets will be increasing in the coming years.

They said that minicomputers were toys and would never replace mainframes. They were mostly wrong. They said that PCs were toys and would never replace minicomputers. Wrong again. Now the kids are acting just like their grandparents, and saying that mobile devices are toys and will never replace PCs. I expect that prediction to soon prove to also be wrong.

I know of several large corporations that are switching from upgrading PCs and laptops on everybody's desks to using thin clients and iPads with Bluetooth keyboards. The "desktops" are being completely virtualized. It's already happening.

Yet in all that mess I might like to point out that we are more and more heading back to a time like Mainframes in terms of computers.
Just instead of calling them mainframes they are known as servers and we work in a cloud threw our dumb terminals known as PCs.

I know I have log in multiple time to basically remote in.
At school the desktop is exactly how I left it on any other computer. Same folders and files, layout ect as when I log off on some other random computer on campus.
Now it is safe to say when I log in that my desktop is stored on some remote server somewhere but not like it matter. Point is still the same. The school computers are more or just a computer for me to log into but most of the work is done by a server.

Things are done in a cloud. MS and google are leading the charge in cloud computing. MS has been working on it for well over 10 years now.

Just figure I would point that out in your little example we have gone back to the mainframe days.

 

[NebulaClash]

That's true, mainframes are still around, and that type of tech will always be around for the type of functionality that works best with that tech.

That's why I say PCs will still be around in the future even though the PC era is now coming to an end. The mainframe era ended decades ago, for instance, but they are still around when needed.

So the tablet era will bring an end to the PC era, but PCs will still be around when needed.

 

[GRuizMD]

I believe it. Kids gravitate toward iPads. And why not? Unlike a computer that requires training in its artificial methods of input, the iPad is as natural as can be. Kids just get it. And when this generation grows up with touch devices, the personal computer era will come to an end and the touch era will begin.

+1
Even better, my daughter now 3 years old, has been using an old iPhone 3G for at least the last 8 months. She also uses the ipad for games, and to watch videos, she has nailed the touch screen perfectly with no training whatsoever!, She performs rather complicated manouvers for her age and for her this is a natural thing. We also have a MBP, she tries to do the touch screen there, and always ask me if is broken.

 

[archipellago]

HAHAHAHA, posting truth??? If you call constant flaming posting truth then yes you've succeeded. Honestly, why don't you quit while you're not ahead. You got timed-out for your usual flaming which IS against forum rules. Hopefully your next journey down moderation road will be a ban. Nobody here agrees nor cares about anything you write. I've received quite a few PM's about you from other forum members and they all know who you are. The miserable part is you're an Apple hater, yet you come here to preach about it. A Windows forum might suit you better as you'll be more at home with miserable people that actually hate their PC's and secretly want a Mac but are too afraid to admit they spent their money on PC junk and Windows 7 junk. I do realize that Windows forums are boring and there's nothing to talk about other than problems.

Sorry man if the truth upsets you. That's the way things are.

Tell me who I am then, its a personal mystery!

Not unusually you make wild guesses and incorrect assumptions but for your sake I'll not post in this thread again.

Your blood pressure must be getting way high .