Microsoft tried—REALLY HARD—and failed. If Microsoft cannot create a profitable new phone, phone OS or a phone App Store, then this proves Apple and Android have an impenetrable monopoly over phone consumer devices.
So your argument falls flat in the face of evidence.
If you can’t beat ‘em, join them, is really the only choice everybody—EVERYBODY—has.
Microsoft pre-dates iOS and Android, here's a
market share graph from 2005 to 2014, you'll notice that in 2007 that Microsoft actually had almost a majority of the market as iOS comes on the scene. Microsoft started losing marketshare hard to Apple and decided to copy Apple as Google had successfully done with Android (Google had a head start though by being on the Apple board). However the new Windows Phone didn't get the marketshare they were expecting.
Microsoft decided it wasn't a business worth pursuing for them, just as they've decided Mixer wasn't a business worth pursuing, and they terminated it. For Microsoft they don't need to own a mobile phone platform, they started a perspective shift where they brought Office to iOS and Android, they're increasingly a services driven company. Do they need a phone to own that market? Probably not.
Impenetrable though? I don't think so, I think if Microsoft decided that they needed more power to build what they need to build their vision of how computing works moving forward that they could move back into the market. What I feel was missing was what made Windows Phone special compared to everyone else. I think Microsoft is starting to get to a point where they're able to do that more compellingly but they've also figured out they can build on top of Android or iOS and let someone else pay for the phone hardware development and phone OS development.
Apple is greedy and Apple App Store fees are `highway robbery` which is damaging the whole industry and especially the small developers.
I do not want more App Stores on our iPhones as Epic wants. But the 30% cut, on top of all development costs, means the death for many indie developers.
How does it hurt small developers? They give away the developer tools for nothing, a full blown IDE, testing environment, ability to push to devices and build the app to get started. All you need is a Mac to get started. For $99/yr you get the ability to get access to more resources and the ability to submit your app to the App Store. It also opens up a monetisation pathway for 30% of the price you set on your app.
Given how many apps are on the App Store, how many small apps are there it's hard to say that it's damaging the whole industry and especially small developers. The developer who is just getting started that makes a sale a week? If they don't make any money all they're out of pocket is the $99/yr without having to pay for any distribution costs or update costs. They get access to this developer tooling and platform that Apple have built for nothing and when they start to make money from the platform, Apple starts to recover it.
What makes the iPhone great? Apple and the App Store. Without Apps, nobody would buy an iPhone. And currently, developers are not happy. Most of them can barely make any money. One never knows when you will get a rejection because of some arbitrary rule. Or maybe the reviewer had a bad day. Who knows. This is preventing developers from even releasing even greater apps.
People bought the iPhone when it was released, then Apple came out with the App Store which has really defined this industry. You could find an app and download it directly on the device, there was an easy monetisation strategy with a level playing field. Apple said they would have a human review process to try to enforce the rules they had and ensure content they didn't want got in and it might be crazy but a human review process is not robotically consistent. The appeal process seems to have problems but it does seem to exist.
Just take a look at what recently happened with the WordPress app. Apple apologized because it got media attention. Sadly for one of these, there are many other apps which are rejected for unjust reason of which we hear nothing about.
This is a particularly curious case where I could have sworn I saw a note from Matt that they would add IAP for the Wordpress.com plans they sold through the phone. This sounds like they got rejected for something legitimate though, they're selling through the platform. Apple said WordPress would no longer be required to include in-app purchases because "the developer removed the display of their service payment options from the app … we have informed the developer and apologize for any confusion that we have caused." The developer fixed the app and Apple said sorry for the confusion. They removed the IAP pathway and got approved.
And to whoever that suggests the web apps. Web apps are broken on iOS. And Apple forbids third-party browsers with proprietary engines in the App Store. All of them must make use of WebKit. There is zero chance we will see Steam or Microsoft releasing their streaming gaming platforms on iOS. And with 30% there is zero incentive. It is just not worth it.
It's odd that you conflate web apps are broken then point to Apple forbidding third-party engines as the explanation. I wonder if you misunderstand that the suggestion that people are making is that folk can use the functionality that Apple launched with the first iPhone to put web apps on the device. Not saying that is necessarily a fully viable option for all use cases but it is a path forward. I remember many moons ago the Financial Times had a really well done web app for iOS with their own custom styling and a bunch of functionality. I think they eventually went native but it's struck me how powerful things can be. Given that on the desktop everyone building Electron apps are essentially making web apps anyway, the inversion is curious.
Now if companies don't release apps for the platform, this will create a market differentiation where the iPhone won't have features that the Android phone does have. If it starts to hurt Apple's market in a way they think they need to make a change, they'll make a change. This is how markets work though and that's how market differentiation works. If you want a phone that is locked down into it's own walled garden, you buy the Apple phone. If you want the phone that is open, you buy an Android phone. If that isn't enough for you and want even more access you go buy something like a Pinephone and you pick your choice of Linux phone system.