Samsung Widens Gap Over Apple in Worldwide Smartphone Market

[LordVic]

Point one(too long to quote )
While I do understand that apple is almost embarrassed by it's riches, and all of that money could do some social good; from a consumers point of view, that really doesn't matter (except again, that the company is healthy so I can receive support, meaning I might no buy an HTC phone because they may not be around it a year to warranty the phone!) An iPhone and top-tier Samsung phone cost almost exactly the same, perform almost the same, and are nearly equals in every aspect, so the amount of profit baked into the iPhone vs the Samsung doesn't really affect me, as a consumer.

Been using bbm for years. It's actually a really good product. :
Agreed, but how do you feel about it's continued existence given the state of Blackberry? If I were really baked into BBM, I'd be worried that it will either die or whiter from lack of investment.

The point I'm trying to make is that the declaration of profits as some be all end all factor that instantly makes an iPhone and Apple the best
Agreed, from an end user's point of view, other than making sure the company is healthy so that you receive continued support, profits do not equate to "best" products. The s6 Edge, I think, is the coolest looking phone out right now.

BUT; if one is of the mindset of an investor (which I am , although small-potatoes ) then profits are a MAJOR driver of the value and health of the business.

So two points of view mostly: which company would I rather own as compared to which product I'd rather own. they don't have to be the same answer.
(p.s. I do own an iPhone instead of the s6 edge because of the apple ecosystem, apps I own, and Apple's support which has been overly generous with my family before, replacing things that are out of warranty when they didn't have to.)

I think we're on exactly the same page.

 

[tdale]

So, the only real change in the overall market is that millions decided to buy cheap Sammy phones?
Its easy for anybody to buy a cheap phone, contracts, interest free payments, and upgrade plans, so the spread of the low middle and high end will remain the same. Debunked.
[doublepost=1454101254][/doublepost]

Could not find anything newer. But I doubt the average selling price for Samsung phones went up since 9 months ago.

From 4 months ago:
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer...-in-profits-due-to-faltering-smartphone-sales

"Samsung admitted that margins were hurt by higher marketing costs and lower selling prices for its handsets."
[doublepost=1454099206][/doublepost]

The trend is Samsung is selling phones at lower prices. That leads to lower profits. Lower profits means you can't hire top talent or spend as much on R&D. Lower profits means you don't have the money to build a top tier operating system and ecosystem.

Apple has $200 billion in the bank and is making about $50 billion a year. That just about guarantee's they can hire the best talent in the world, spend the most on R&D, and not cut corners. That huge cash and profit allows Apple to continue to invest and build the ecosystem.

I am not cherry picking stats. The stats are clear as day:

iPhone average selling price $700
Samsung average $200 and going down each year

Apple $50 billion in profit
Samsung mobile division $3 billion in profit

[doublepost=1454101486][/doublepost]

Could not find anything newer. But I doubt the average selling price for Samsung phones went up since 9 months ago.

From 4 months ago:
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer...-in-profits-due-to-faltering-smartphone-sales

"Samsung admitted that margins were hurt by higher marketing costs and lower selling prices for its handsets."
[doublepost=1454099206][/doublepost]

The trend is Samsung is selling phones at lower prices. That leads to lower profits. Lower profits means you can't hire top talent or spend as much on R&D. Lower profits means you don't have the money to build a top tier operating system and ecosystem.

Apple has $200 billion in the bank and is making about $50 billion a year. That just about guarantee's they can hire the best talent in the world, spend the most on R&D, and not cut corners. That huge cash and profit allows Apple to continue to invest and build the ecosystem.

I am not cherry picking stats. The stats are clear as day:

iPhone average selling price $700
Samsung average $200 and going down each year

Apple $50 billion in profit
Samsung mobile division $3 billion in profit

As to not cutting corners, why all the hardware issue, OS bugs, and endless threads about Apple quality in the last year.

If you wish to cherry pick stats, explain why there is a trend towards Sammy, or against Apple? The markets have year in year out had all companies bringing out new phones, but the trend last year is easing against Apple. Its about the trend of phone sales, not profits. If profit rose 20% or dropped 20%, or same for share price, does that make your iPhone better or faster?

 

[kdarling]

That's my only gripe about this report. They should be comparing top end phone marketshare with top end phones only. Lumping $50 phones with $900 phones is misleading and does not give a good picture of the market dynamics.

It's a news release, not a full report. It's not meant to give away much information.

Basically it's an ad. Its purpose is to draw attention to their multi-thousand dollar reports, which DO include the info you're talking about

The mainstream buyer doesn't care about the minor features Apple makes such a big deal about.

Last quarter about 75 million buyers disagreed with you. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but it's not supported by facts.

You're entitled to your opinion, too, but it's also not supported by facts.

You're claiming that all 75 million sales were from customers wanting to be able to use 3D Touch or live photos or other minor features. That's unlikely in the extreme.

He's saying most people don't care enough about those features to base a purchase on. (Heck, I'd go further and guess that most people didn't even know about the features before they bought the phone!).

 

[warrior2000]

So, the only real change in the overall market is that millions decided to buy cheap Sammy phones?
Its easy for anybody to buy a cheap phone, contracts, interest free payments, and upgrade plans, so the spread of the low middle and high end will remain the same. Debunked.
[doublepost=1454101254][/doublepost]
[doublepost=1454101486][/doublepost]

As to not cutting corners, why all the hardware issue, OS bugs, and endless threads about Apple quality in the last year.

If you wish to cherry pick stats, explain why there is a trend towards Sammy, or against Apple? The markets have year in year out had all companies bringing out new phones, but the trend last year is easing against Apple. Its about the trend of phone sales, not profits. If profit rose 20% or dropped 20%, or same for share price, does that make your iPhone better or faster?

You obviously have your trends wrong.

In 2015 Apple sold 40,000,000 more iPhones than in 2014.
In 2015 Samsung sold 2,000,000 more phones than in 2014.

In 2015 Apple grew iPhone units sales by 21% from 2014.
In 2015 Samsung grew smartphone units by less than 1% from 2014.

The average selling price of iPhones has gone UP 2 years to close to $700.
The average selling price of Samsung phones have gone down almost 30% the last 2 years.

Again I have no idea what trend you are looking at.

If Apple's quality is so horrible why are they able to sell phones at an average price of $700? By far the highest selling price in the industry? While Samsung is struggling to sell phones at an average price of $200? If they are doing so bad how did Apple increase units sold by 21% in 2015?

 

[Max(IT)]

Disappointing. As much as a blatant copycat firm they are, I do not believe they should be enjoying the success they have been experiencing.

I hate it when cheaters win.

success ? Are you sure flooding the market with dozens of uninspiring models is a successful strategy ?
I don't think so ...

the Edge is a hot phone but too bad it doesnt run iOS

Im quite sure the S6 Edge sold very few units compared to iPhone ....
Samsung's numbers are made of cheap phones sold worldwide
[doublepost=1454103631][/doublepost]

Checked the prices of iPhones vs. Samsung's leading phones lately? About the same.

checked how many "leading phones" Samsung sell compared to iPhones ?
[doublepost=1454104014][/doublepost]

Ironically, Apple actually copied the "Copy and Paste" implementation from Google/Samsung. Remember original iPhone didn't have Copy/Paste ?

Apple also copied notifications from Google and control center which by the way sucks on iOS. Apple also copied the original capacitive touchscreen from LG Chocolate, and LG actually sued Apple for it and the issue was settled out of court when Apple paid undisclosed amount to LG.

If you still think that Apple invented the planet Earth, you are mistaken!!! What they invented is "Reality Distortion Field" and greatest marketing in the world's history so that people believe Apple invented everything!

sure, because Google was the first to use Copy&paste on a phone ....

You are a serial Apple criticizer but you still have quite a lot of "reported" Apple's gears in your signature: the reality distortion field must be so strong that influenced even yourself
[doublepost=1454104496][/doublepost]

Apple has a problem with the US dollar , it's too strong against many currency's, and Apple is too greedy passing the fluctuations onto the customer , in many countries around the world the iPhone is just getting too damn expansive.

Samsung and others are winning here by dropping thier prices .

Sadly for lots of people there is just so Much they are prepared to pay for a premium handset.

In Australia , the price from 6 to 6S alone went up 20% , it's just getting to expansive to upgrade each year. That's a very large increase where in the states the price remained the same.

you are right mate, Apple has to react to the stagnation by eroding their profit margins ...
Apple's products outside US are just too pricey.

In fact when I see an iPhone user, I imagine someone who is older and not teach savy, like a grandma or a teenager. Or some poor guy who drives a beat up Toyota Corolla and owns a pink iPhone 6S. I associate galaxy S6 with a guy in a suite that screams "style" and "sophistication"

are you kidding us, aren't you ?
You keep spreading FUD about Apple, and you HAVE an iPhone 6S written in your signature....
Again, are you defining yourself as a "Not tech savvy, like a grandma" as you defined a typical iPhone owner here ?
[doublepost=1454104714][/doublepost]

If it would, I definitely wouldn't even look at it. In my book, iOS is a horrible platform and its only there to restrict, limit and control its users.

And in my book Android is an horrible platform and it's only there as a bait for user's data.
[doublepost=1454105425][/doublepost]

Love Apple products but worried about the stock. Lately I can see more and more people that use to be iPad users switch to Surface Pro. On my last meeting at university surface outnumbered iPads 3:1. Those people don't care about faction and glamour. They want the job done the most quick and efficient way and apparently surface is a way to go these days. Apple please do something. Don't be blackberry and stay behind. Hybrids and increased functionality is the way to go.

accordino to last numbers reported by Microsoft, in the Q4 they sold something like 2 millions Surface devices ... Apple is so doomed they reached the historical minimum but still sold 14 millions iPads.....
Microsoft would kill to have such a "failure"....
[doublepost=1454106437][/doublepost]

That's comparing top end Samsung phablets only, with the entire range of iPhones from 5C on up.


As far as profit margins go, Apple is of course way ahead of everyone else, because they only sell high-margin phones.

Since when Galaxy S series are phablets ?

With how ridiculously cheap NAND storage is these days, the fact that Apple is literally selling a 16GB 'premium' smartphone in the year 2016 is absolutely preposterous. Seriously, this is a FIFTH year running, and NAND flash has just gotten cheaper and cheaper. The rest of the industry has moved on but somehow Apple just can't quite manage to leave 2011.

It would be somewhat less disgusting if they upgraded iCloud storage levels...

...but they haven't increased it at all since 2011 when it was released! I Cloud is still stuck at 5GB for the free tier, which is astonishingly low these days. I truly believe Apple can make just as much (if not more money) WITHOUT completely ruining so many customers experiences. And before the obligatory comment that says 'some people don't need more than 16GB', that's absolutely true, but I used to work in customer service and you would be astonished at how many calls we got when people ran out of storage on their 16GB phone (and that was years ago).

Seriously, Apple deserves to get slaughtered in this market, I hope their sales plummet even worse than expected. I understand they are trying to keep their ASP (average sale price) high and force people to upgrade, but seriously, there are far smarter ways to do it. They could have given the base model a worse camera, or a lower resolution display, or anything. But no, apparently the MBA's in Apple HQ just aren't intelligent or creative enough to come up with such an idea.

That 4K camera is utterly useless on a 16GB device, you'll run out of storage in a matter of minutes (literally...minutes). Steve Jobs would never have sat idly by and watch this team of fools ruin what could be such an amazing company because they can't think of a better way to get people to upgrade past the base model.

I have an easy solution about your rant: do not buy a 16 Gb iPhone.
I bought a 64 Gb model, and I'm quite sure they had a few others available at the store...

 

[dark_knight177]

You are a serial Apple criticizer but you still have quite a lot of "reported" Apple's gears in your signature: the reality distortion field must be so strong that influenced even yourself

Well you see, i am Apple user, not Apple's ass licker. There's a big difference between the two, let that sink in for a moment.

 

[Jsameds]

success ? Are you sure flooding the market with dozens of uninspiring models is a successful strategy ?
I don't think so ...


Im quite sure the S6 Edge sold very few units compared to iPhone ....
Samsung's numbers are made of cheap phones sold worldwide
[doublepost=1454103631][/doublepost]
checked how many "leading phones" Samsung sell compared to iPhones ?
[doublepost=1454104014][/doublepost]
sure, because Google was the first to use Copy&paste on a phone ....

You are a serial Apple criticizer but you still have quite a lot of "reported" Apple's gears in your signature: the reality distortion field must be so strong that influenced even yourself
[doublepost=1454104496][/doublepost]

you are right mate, Apple has to react to the stagnation by eroding their profit margins ...
Apple's products outside US are just too pricey.


are you kidding us, aren't you ?
You keep spreading FUD about Apple, and you HAVE an iPhone 6S written in your signature....
Again, are you defining yourself as a "Not tech savvy, like a grandma" as you defined a typical iPhone owner here ?
[doublepost=1454104714][/doublepost]
And in my book Android is an horrible platform and it's only there as a bait for user's data.
[doublepost=1454105425][/doublepost]
accordino to last numbers reported by Microsoft, in the Q4 they sold something like 2 millions Surface devices ... Apple is so doomed they reached the historical minimum but still sold 14 millions iPads.....
Microsoft would kill to have such a "failure"....
[doublepost=1454106437][/doublepost]
Since when Galaxy S series are phablets ?


I have an easy solution about your rant: do not buy a 16 Gb iPhone.
I bought a 64 Gb model, and I'm quite sure they had a few others available at the store...

Jesus. You should just have said " I disagree with everyone" it would have been easier.

 

[Max(IT)]

Jesus. You should just have said " I disagree with everyone" it would have been easier.

do you mean "I disagree with well known Apple bashers" ? Yep, easier

 

[Fenez]

Wow....people are nuts....who cares who sells how many? Buy everything, use everything until you want something else....I buy tons of devices and use them all....All the semantics and hair splitting....the devices and the way they operate have become almost identical and move closer to each other with every new device...there are a bunch of great phones for true tech lovers. Stop worrying which company is selling the most and just enjoy all the tech.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Wow....people are nuts....who cares who sells how many? Buy everything, use everything until you want something else....I buy tons of devices and use them all....All the semantics and hair splitting....the devices and the way they operate have become almost identical and move closer to each other with every new device...there are a bunch of great phones for true tech lovers. Stop worrying which company is selling the most and just enjoy all the tech.

You must be new here. Rationality and logic don't usually go over well.

 

[billy the fish]

The butt hurt in this thread is off the scale
.. chill out guys.. jeez.... just because samsung now make the best phones as well as sell the most.. who cares..

 

[dilbert99]

Am I missing something? Article says Samsung widens the gap but the figures say the gap is closing.
2014 Market share - Samsung 24.7% vs Apple 15%
2015 Market share - Samsung 22.2% vs Apple 16.1%

 

[Max(IT)]

The butt hurt in this thread is off the scale
.. chill out guys.. jeez.... just because samsung now make the best phones as well as sell the most.. who cares..

Since when Samsung make the best phones ? Maybe in your dream...
They sell, quite a lot of crappy phones, you are right: who cares ? Not even shareholders, since their profits are going down quarter after quarter.

 

[MrAverigeUser]

You obviously have your trends wrong.

In 2015 Apple sold 40,000,000 more iPhones than in 2014.
In 2015 Samsung sold 2,000,000 more phones than in 2014.

In 2015 Apple grew iPhone units sales by 21% from 2014.
In 2015 Samsung grew smartphone units by less than 1% from 2014.


Again I have no idea what trend you are looking at.

You are not serious if you pick only the parts of statistics that are convenient for you.

FACT is, that apple had already stagnation of sales 2013/2014.
FACT is, that apple has NOW AGAIN stagnation of sales if you compare Q1/2015 and Q1/2016. The sales of apple´s Q1 always were and are siginifant for the whole year.

FACT is, that even Tim Cook is already preparing the shareholders for harder times to come (see his words on the last press conference) - but there re always some childish fanboys of whatever brands that ignore reality, be it apple, Samsung or whatever.

It is NOT Samsung being under pressure, it is APPLE beginng to come under pressure.

apple has become more and more a one-line-product company: 70% of profits come from iPhone sales.

And there are a lot of damn good competitors in the top-class of Smartphones.
More and more competitors come from lower class Smartphones up to mid-leverl Smartphones and are now beginning to attack at the hogh-leve class, such as Huawei with nearly exploding growth.

"Samsung is unable to get talents" : RIDICULOUS!

First: As about OS, they have now not only one (= the worldwide most used operation system being Android) but also a damn good second OS (being WindowsPhone) for their smartphones. It doesn´t matter if these OS are coming from google/MSFT or SAmsung as these are developed by WORLD_LEADING software-companies.

As for hardware: apple does not produce or develop hardware on a significant level. They are delivered by Samsung, who is the world-leading enterprise in hardware besides of Intel.

MArgins on hardware-production are always lower than just the business of just letting others solder and glue together some foreign hardware components somewhere in China and let them put this in some shiny glittery-styled containers - and finally sell them with more and more ridiculous-religious claims invented by their marketing-dpt.

BUT: samsung - other than apple being enormous diversified - will CONTINUE to earn money just because of this diversification. While apple will get more and more problems.

 

[freediverx]

It's amusing how MacRumors posts an article like this without any relevant context - almost as if they're on the take from Samesung...

Strategy Analytics has been repeatedly exposed as a fraudulent business focused on propping up failing companies through an over-reliance on product shipment numbers and the deceptive grouping of widely different product categories in order to inflate numbers and distort reality.

Additionally, marketshare in the smartphone industry is only important to the extent necessary to attract app developers. Beyond that, it's just a silly numbers game that says nothing about the relative merits of each platform or, more importantly, their relative profitability or long term success.

Though Samsung has amassed a great deal of global marketshare, largely by shamelessly copying their competitors' designs, they make very low margins on most of those devices. Chinese companies like Xiaomi have lately been beating them at their own game, selling higher quality knock-off smartphones at even lower price points. And at the high end, for the few models Samsung sells at decent profit margins, Apple has been eating their lunch since introducing larger screened models, the sole remaining excuse anyone had for buying a flagship Samsung phone over an iPhone.

Smashing Apple: Is Strategy Analytics in Samsung's pocket?
http://fortune.com/2013/08/02/smashing-apple-is-strategy-analytics-in-samsungs-pocket/

The curious case of IDC, Gartner & Strategy Analytics' PC, phone & tablet data on Apple
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13...ategy-analytics-pc-phone-tablet-data-on-apple

Samsung Electronics warns of tough 2016 amid fourth-qaurter outlook concerns http://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-elec-outlook-idUSKBN0UI06920160104

Samsung Profits Plummet 24% on Slow Smartphone Sales
http://www.patentlyapple.com/patent...fits-plummet-24-on-slow-smartphone-sales.html

Samsung to Pay Apple $548 Million Settlement in Five-Year Old Patent Trial
https://www.macrumors.com/2015/12/04/samsung-to-pay-apple-548-million/

Original Designs by Samsung
http://samsungdesign.tumblr.com
This blog is dedicated to showcase all the innovative and original designs by Samsung.

 

[billy the fish]

Since when Samsung make the best phones ? Maybe in your dream...
They sell, quite a lot of crappy phones, you are right: who cares ? Not even shareholders, since their profits are going down quarter after quarter.

Wow, someone's riding the denial bus today. The s6 range, headlined by the edge plus is far ahead of the 6s it's laffable, design, screen, camera, video, battery. On a different planet.. it's OK tho my friend, as long as you tell yourself it's not true, you can sleep better tonight. Enoy the rest of your day.

 

[I7guy]

Wow, someone's riding the denial bus today. The s6 range, headlined by the edge plus is far ahead of the 6s it's laffable, design, screen, camera, video, battery. On a different planet.. it's OK tho my friend, as long as you tell yourself it's not true, you can sleep better tonight. Enoy the rest of your day.

Don't people generally buy the "better" product when the products are priced similarly? Nuff said.

 

[kdarling]

It's amusing how MacRumors posts an article like this without any relevant context - almost as if they're on the take from Samesung...

Wow. Just wow.

MacRumors, like most sites these days, exists only because of being able to attract enough eyes to make it worthwhile. That means, like most sites these days, it has to drum up debate.

Normal adult intelligence should fill in the context. If it doesn't, then there's always someone here to post some, such as you just tried to do, and I often try to do. At that point, it's up to the reader to decide what makes sense.

Strategy Analytics has been repeatedly exposed as a fraudulent business focused on propping up failing companies through an over-reliance on product shipment numbers and the deceptive grouping of widely different product categories in order to inflate numbers and distort reality.

Where did you get that "exposed" claim? Oh, from Elmer-DeWitt and AppleInsider articles. Enough said.

Somebody here will always attack unfavorable SA, IDC or Gartner news releases as being unreliable. Yet ironically, Tim Cook often quotes those very same sources in his quarterly earnings calls -- when they're favorable to Apple. Ditto for fans here who happily use them as sources for claims of large Apple Watch sales, etc.

Additionally, marketshare in the smartphone industry is only important to the extent necessary to attract app developers.

Attracting app developers and corporate users is pretty important. At this point, iOS and Android are both doing fine in that respect.

Beyond that, it's just a silly numbers game that says nothing about the relative merits of each platform or, more importantly, their relative profitability or long term success.

They're always silly numbers if they don't fit one's reality. But they're great ones if they do

 

[I7guy]

Wow. Just wow.

MacRumors, like most sites these days, exists only because of being able to attract enough eyes to make it worthwhile. That means, like most sites these days, it has to drum up debate.

Normal adult intelligence should fill in the context. If it doesn't, then there's always someone here to post some, such as you just tried to do, and I often try to do. At that point, it's up to the reader to decide what makes sense.



Where did you get that "exposed" claim? Oh, from Elmer-DeWitt and AppleInsider articles. Enough said.

Somebody here will always attack unfavorable SA, IDC or Gartner news releases as being unreliable. Yet ironically, Tim Cook often quotes those very same sources in his quarterly earnings calls -- when they're favorable to Apple. Ditto for fans here who happily use them as sources for claims of large Apple Watch sales, etc.



Attracting app developers and corporate users is pretty important. At this point, iOS and Android are both doing fine in that respect.



They're always silly numbers if they don't fit one's reality. But they're great ones if they do

There are "facts" often labeled as "factoids" that are accurate but don't further any meaningful discussion except spin. It's ironic these "numbers" came out after apples record announcement and multiple "Apple is doomed" threads here.

 

[winston1236]

Not exactly.

Samsung sells smartphones from $100 to $1000... with an ASP somewhere between $200 and $300

But Apple only sells phones from $500 to $1000... with an ASP around $670

They both might have some crossover at the high-end... but Apple sells zero phones at the low-end.

On the other hand... Samsung sells a ton of units at the low-end.

So no... they're not going after the "same" customers.

Perhaps Apple 'sells' no low cost phones but the carriers have been giving away free iphones (old models) for several years now. That's as low end as you can get.

 

[kdarling]

There are "facts" often labeled as "factoids" that are accurate but don't further any meaningful discussion except spin.

Oh, I don't disagree with that. But again, this is a fan site meant for discussion, opinions, speculation, and yes even some facts.

It's ironic these "numbers" came out after apples record announcement and multiple "Apple is doomed" threads here.

As noted elsewhere, it wasn't a record YoY quarter when it came to end user sales.

Doomed? No, of course not.

Could use another foundation product? Yes, that would be a good idea, and it's clearly why Apple is looking into other product categories, including at least one that is outside their normal expertise (cars), which might be less prone to price swings.

 

[I7guy]

Oh, I don't disagree with that. But again, this is a fan site meant for discussion, opinions, speculation, and yes even some facts.



As noted elsewhere, it wasn't a record YoY quarter when it came to end user sales.

Doomed? No, of course not.

Could use another foundation product? Yes, that would be a good idea, and it's clearly why Apple is looking into other product categories, including at least one that is outside their normal expertise (cars), which might be less prone to price swings.

Oh some of what you respond to is on the money, pun intended. But yoy isn't meaningful if your financial mobile picture looks like samsungs.

 

[ralmac]

Let's see a comparison in revenue instead of units sold...

In addition, compare units sold, not Apple's units sold vs Samsung units shipped. Those two terms are significantly different.

 

[billy the fish]

Don't people generally buy the "better" product when the products are priced similarly? Nuff said.

Not when, marketing, history, national loyalty, peer pressure etc come into the mix.. when a rational mind and a good test drive come into the mix, and actually looking at the two devices side by side, there really is no comparison...

 

[I7guy]

Not when, marketing, history, national loyalty, peer pressure etc come into the mix.. when a rational mind and a good test drive come into the mix, and actually looking at the two devices side by side, there really is no comparison...

You can cite all red-herring type of "causes" until the cows come home and probably really believe them to the bottom of your heart, but the people have voted with their wallets on their definition of "best". 75 million people last quarter; is that a big enough sample size?