SD is near its last breath

[zim]

I do agree that SD is eventually going to phase out as a major format, I doubt it will ever go away for good. Regardless, I am not going to hold my breath. Currently most TVs aren't even widescreen formated so what makes you think that HD is here? I think there is still too much hype about HD, I think we will see tapeless cameras dominate the market prior to HD cameras.

 

[ftaok]

Yes HD offers a superior image but many people still do not have HD displays. And most consumers do not have the processing power and hard drive space to shoot and edit in HD.

Processing power, maybe. But hard drive space is the same with DV and HDV. Both have bit rates of 25 mbps.

 

[MacNut]

I do agree that SD is eventually going to phase out as a major format, I doubt it will ever go away for good. Regardless, I am not going to hold my breath. Currently most TVs aren't even widescreen formated so what makes you think that HD is here? I think there is still too much hype about HD, I think we will see tapeless cameras dominate the market prior to HD cameras.

HD is here because the government says it is. The same was said about black and white and color TV people said it will never make it but as the government says this is the only way people will be forced to change. The fact is that HD is here now but its not as wide spread since analog is still around. Once analog is gone for good cable providers and broadcasters will be forcing HD content wether you like it or not. As for tapeless cameras, I think we will see Hard Drive HD become a big thing in the future.

 

[zim]

HD is here because the government says it is. The same was said about black and white and color TV people said it will never make it but as the government says this is the only way people will be forced to change. The fact is that HD is here now but its not as wide spread since analog is still around. Once analog is gone for good cable providers and broadcasters will be forcing HD content wether you like it or not. As for tapeless cameras, I think we will see Hard Drive HD become a big thing in the future.

Regardless of what the government says, SD will remain. SD does not mean not digital, there are plenty of digital sets out that are not HD. In fact the mass number of TVs out there are still not even widescreen, a format that has been around longer then HD. Also on the same note, HD does not mean digital, Japanese, for example, have HDTV which is analog. I am not saying that HD will not make it, it will, just not in the time frame that is being discussed by some here. Realistically, I know only but one person with an HD set and connection, so I don't see HD happening widespread too soon. And as for the cameras, tapeless cameras are here, just as HD is but I see tapeless units becoming more popular prior to HD's full adoption simply due to the fact that more people can use them. And finally, I am not anti HD. I would also say that as for media, TV, I am more interested in multi-casting, broadcast of multiple SD programs at once. Multi-casting will keep SD alive for some time because HD can not be multi-casted.

 

[JFreak]

Yep, and many broadcasts are not even using SD to its full potential. So many home-video grade clips are shown in the news for example.

I doubt HD is going mainstream faster than perhaps in 5 years the earliest. There's little to gain for most people, really. I know I would like HDTV and HD-DVD as I already have 720p video projector and 100" screen (!), but even SD picture that big looks very good in motion, so even I'm not prepared to pay big premium for the HD.

Most TV:s are smaller than 50" and even 50" screen has only 25% area compared to my 100" screen. The SD quality is perfectly fine for 50" screen as it is more than "acceptable" in 100" screen. Therefore most people are not _needing_ HD picture, however nice it would be in theory. Most people would not even notice the difference with their sub-50" televisions. That's the reason why HD is mainstream only when it can be sold to general public without the price premium. People aren't stupid; either HD resolution will have to be "free" or the transition will have to be forced one, like the transition from analog to digital. At least in Finland they just announced that analog transmissions will be ending in August 2007 so analog TV:s become useless without digital tuner box.

Oh well, going off-topic so better to stop now.

 

[zim]

Oh well, going off-topic so better to stop now.

But you do have a point, not so off topic. I fear that the biggest issue will be this... example (way off topic, but I will come around in the end) currently I do not have a landline but prior to buying this house we had one at the apt. My point here is that with the landline, in 2005, we were still being charged a fee for touch tone service! I have not encountered a rotary phone since I was a kid. So why are we still, assuming here, being charged for touch tone service when it is "standard"? Personally I think that this will be the killer for HDTV, charges. Currently I know of at least 5 people who have downgraded to basic cable simply because digital cable (not HD) was getting too expensive and also due to the internet consuming more of their lives then television was.

I agree with the 5 year estimate but even feel that 5 years might be a little generous when looking at our current economy.

 

[MacNut]

The one thing that will hold back HD is lack of content from the networks, Currently we have 10 HD channels on cable and the broadcasters are only really showing prime time in HD. The FCC also says Digital broadcasts but doesn't say HD just that analog has to stop by 2009. Once the sets get cheap enough tho HD will catch on.

You will never see analog HDTV in the US because the bandwidth is just to big to do so its compressed to save space. That is the whole reason why they are dropping the analog spectrum in the first place.

 

[dongmin]

HD will be here--and take over--sooner than you think. Much faster than the VHS-->DVD transition. Why? Not because consumers want it, necessary, but because that's where the big money is in consumer electronics. The content people want it so they can make money off of people repurchasing their movies. Obviously the hardware people want it so that they can sell the pricier gadgets. The big retailers will push it because everything HD has higher margins. And of course the government is gonna push it because of all the Hollywood-electronics lobbying efforts.

Most cable stations don't even have hd equipment yet. It will be a long, long time before HD camcorders become the norm for consumers.

That's totally wrong. All the big cable players (Comcast, Time Warner, DirecTV) are offering HD hardware and content.

edit: 27" 720p HDTVs can be had for under $600 now. After this Xmas, these things will be as common as dirt.

 

[JFreak]

HD will be here--and take over--sooner than you think. Much faster than the VHS-->DVD transition. Why? Not because consumers want it, necessary, but because that's where the big money is in consumer electronics. The content people want it so they can make money off of people repurchasing their movies. Obviously the hardware people want it so that they can sell the pricier gadgets. The big retailers will push it because everything HD has higher margins.

It doesn't work that way.

A movie must be REALLY good if people want to re-buy it in a different format. Think "Star Wars" for example, Lucas had to change the films a bit to justify people buying the DVD version. People don't want to spend money on nothing, and changing formats is just that. Nothing. Profit margins of retailers have nothing to do with how fast something is adopted. Sure, there is big money, but it attracts people who SELL this new tech and it's completely different mob than people who actually buy things. I know there are newer models available than the car I'm driving, but it isn't magically forcing me to change to a new model. Why? It costs a lot of money to do so, and I have better use for that money. My old one has to be in a relatively bad condition before the new model attracts me enough.

As long as SD systems are in working condition, they are good enough for most people. Transition from analog to digital was one possibility to jump straight to HD era, but technology companies didn't want to do so. Therefore, I guess it'll take at least 5 years (and most probably more) when installed HD base is larger than SD.

There's too much hype.

 

[combatcolin]

When a pro-consumers (not the typical consumers) are looking to get a new camcorder, I dont really see the point of getting the SD format anymore.

http://www.camcorderinfo.com/content/Canon-Unveils-New-Prosumer-HDV-Line-XH-G1-and-XH-A1.htm

Well the marketing men sure like you eh?



To be honest normal DV cameras and there DVD and HD brothers will be around for a long time yet.

 

[ftaok]

Sorry for contributing to the slightly off-topic portion of this thread.

Here's how I know that HDTV is just about to take off. My 60+ year old dad asked me about it the other day. Whenever my dad asks about a new technology, that's the day that the mindshare of America has absorbed, and accepted, said technology.

Therefore, looking back at the last ten years, here are the years in which a few technologies "made it".

2006 - HDTVs
2004 - Digital Cameras
2002 - PCs
2000 - Cell Phones

Never "made it" - DVD

 

[bowens]

Sorry for contributing to the slightly off-topic portion of this thread.

Here's how I know that HDTV is just about to take off. My 60+ year old dad asked me about it the other day. Whenever my dad asks about a new technology, that's the day that the mindshare of America has absorbed, and accepted, said technology.

Therefore, looking back at the last ten years, here are the years in which a few technologies "made it".

2006 - HDTVs
2004 - Digital Cameras
2002 - PCs
2000 - Cell Phones

Never "made it" - DVD

I wouldn't say that DVD never "made it". Most houses in the country have a DVD player. You can't even buy vhs tapes anymore from most retailers.

 

[ftaok]

I wouldn't say that DVD never "made it". Most houses in the country have a DVD player. You can't even buy vhs tapes anymore from most retailers.

The DVD comment was more of a joke. I was saying that DVDs never made it because my dad never asked about it. Of course DVDs have made it big time.

 

[LethalWolfe]

Now we are talking about two different things. HD for consumers and HD for pros. HD for pros is what the OP was talking about and it is not that far off. SD equipment is already being phased out and announcements of new equipment is almost entirely HD-centric.

HD for consumers is a different story. The adaption rate is just going to drag along like it has been because there isn't a very big demand for HD. Lack of demand coupled w/the expense of "HDing" your home (new camera, new TVs, new media players) and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war just makes it all that much worse. Convenience is probably the #1 or #2 reason why consumers adopt new formats/standards and image/sound quality might not even break the top 5. Just look at iTMS. Crappy quality, but convenient, music and video content that people are eating up. As funny as it sounds the quality of HD isn't that good a selling point 'cause most consumers are content w/current DVD quality.


Lethal

 

[zim]

Now we are talking about two different things. HD for consumers and HD for pros. HD for pros is what the OP was talking about and it is not that far off. SD equipment is already being phased out and announcements of new equipment is almost entirely HD-centric.

HD for consumers is a different story. The adaption rate is just going to drag along like it has been because there isn't a very big demand for HD. Lack of demand coupled w/the expense of "HDing" your home (new camera, new TVs, new media players) and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war just makes it all that much worse. Convenience is probably the #1 or #2 reason why consumers adopt new formats/standards and image/sound quality might not even break the top 5. Just look at iTMS. Crappy quality, but convenient, music and video content that people are eating up. As funny as it sounds the quality of HD isn't that good a selling point 'cause most consumers are content w/current DVD quality.


Lethal

I personally disagree with you regarding iTMS and although there are a few DVDs on the market that I feel are below standard in terms of quality, overall I am happy with DVDs. My complaint would be with usability prior to quality, specific to DVDs not iTMS, a complaint that I have heard much too often by older generations.

As for Pros, SD will never go away, multi casting will keep it alive, the arts will keep it alive. Stations like PBS have already commented how they will use SD possibly for day television, giving viewers multi-casted shows, and HD for evening shows, shows that have higher budgets and larger audiences. SD is beautiful when done right, HD is just another format and Pros will only get HD opportunities as long as the client's audience is demanding for it. SD will never go away because it is a format with a history.

Also consider this, VHS has just, for the most part, left the market. Consider the length of time it took, which was much longer then expected. With the current "format war" will not effect the average consumer because we have not been given a reason as to why these new formats are better.

 

[LethalWolfe]

I personally disagree with you regarding iTMS and although there are a few DVDs on the market that I feel are below standard in terms of quality, overall I am happy with DVDs. My complaint would be with usability prior to quality, specific to DVDs not iTMS, a complaint that I have heard much too often by older generations.

You disagree that iTMS has a wildly successful business model of offering low quality content in a very convenient manor? And I'm not sure what you mean by the rest of that. DVDs are too hard to use?

As for Pros, SD will never go away, multi casting will keep it alive, the arts will keep it alive. Stations like PBS have already commented how they will use SD possibly for day television, giving viewers multi-casted shows, and HD for evening shows, shows that have higher budgets and larger audiences. SD is beautiful when done right, HD is just another format and Pros will only get HD opportunities as long as the client's audience is demanding for it. SD will never go away because it is a format with a history.

The pro market at large isn't going to support two incompatible standards for longer than it has to (which is going to be years anyway). Even if you were going to deliver SD content you'd most likely just down convert from an HD source. Down the line shooting HD and downconverting will be cheaper than owning and operating both SD and HD equipment. It's already been happening for years. Of course there will be pockets that will keep using SD equipment indefinitely because they can, but that doesn't mean SD acquisition won't effectively be dead. OS 9 is dead, has been dead, but it still gets used professionally. That doesn't make it any less dead an OS. I guess I consider it dead when development for it has stopped.

Also consider this, VHS has just, for the most part, left the market. Consider the length of time it took, which was much longer then expected. With the current "format war" will not effect the average consumer because we have not been given a reason as to why these new formats are better.

Why are you talking to me about VHS? I've already said the consumer move to HD is just going to drag on and on.


Lethal

 

[zim]

You disagree that iTMS has a wildly successful business model of offering low quality content in a very convenient manor? And I'm not sure what you mean by the rest of that. DVDs are too hard to use?

No, I disagree with your comment on quality, my mistake for not emphasizing that.

The pro market at large isn't going to support two incompatible standards for longer than it has to (which is going to be years anyway). Even if you were going to deliver SD content you'd most likely just down convert from an HD source. Down the line shooting HD and downconverting will be cheaper than owning and operating both SD and HD equipment.

How are they incompatible? SD can be broadcasted digitally as well as HD. PBS is one example of a network whom has stated their intentions as to how they will broadcast SD as well as HD.

It's already been happening for years. Of course there will be pockets that will keep using SD equipment indefinitely because they can, but that doesn't mean SD acquisition won't effectively be dead. OS 9 is dead, has been dead, but it still gets used professionally. That doesn't make it any less dead an OS. I guess I consider it dead when development for it has stopped. Why are you talking to me about VHS? I've already said the consumer move to HD is just going to drag on and on.


Lethal

My mistake, please forgive, I was at work and multitasking at that. We both agree that the transition to HDTV is going to drag on. HD DVD was project for release originally in 2004, I think that right there shows us that the tansition will take some time.

 

[Alpinism]

In the semi pro or proconsumer marketplace ($3000 - $6000) price range, everything is now being offered in Hi-Def. We have the Sony Fx1, Z1, the new Canons, Panasonic HVX200 and the new JVC HD110u ...etc.

If you read my original post, I did not claim that the average consumer or even pro-consumer will sell their SD camcorder just to switch to Hi-def. I said when a proconsumer is looking to replace or purchase NEW CAMCORDER, there is NO reason to go back to SD anymore.

Even though, many people do not have Hi def TVs in their home now, Most new PCs and Macs are capable of displaying Hi-def images. And Yes, I think it is a competitive advantage for a business being able to offer clients a choice (Hi-def or SD) or heck, why not just give them both.

Once the big guys come out with a sub $600 Hi-def cam, it is going to sealed the fate of SD forever in the consumer market. Even at the higher end of the consumer spectrum, the Sony HC1 and HC3 are selling like hot cakes.

Really, that is the beauty of competition, Canon just forced everybody to raise the bar with the 2 new cams. It is interesting to see how Panasonic will respond to this. A lot of people (including me) are hoping for a Hi-def AVCHD Panasonic DVX 100. INNOVATE OR DIE.

 

[LethalWolfe]

How are they incompatible? SD can be broadcasted digitally as well as HD. PBS is one example of a network whom has stated their intentions as to how they will broadcast SD as well as HD.

I meant hardware incompatibility on the production/post side. SD lenses won't work w/an HD camera, SD monitors aren't adequate for checking HD signals etc,. So if you want to support both SD and HD you could end up w/a lot more equipment than if you just supported one standard. And since you can take an HD signal, downconvert it to SD and end up w/a quality SD image, but you can't take an SD image, upconvert it to HD and end w/a quality HD image I think it makes keeping SD gear unnecessarily redundant after a point. So even though four years from now some stations might still want to b'cast digital SD content I'm sure it will come from an HD master.

Consumers don't need to worry about HD for a while, but any pro that's looking to buy new gear really has to weigh spending less money in the short term and staying SD, or potentially saving money in the long run by switching to HD now as opposed to buying a new SD camera now and buying an HD camera in 2-3yrs.


Lethal

 

[bmb012]

No one made this big of deal when computer monitors doubled in resolution...

Seriously, I got a HD LCD not too long ago, and the resolution of the screen takes a far back seat to the shear awesomeness of the colors and brightness of the screen.

 

[virus1]

sure its coming to an end, but not overnight. just because the cameras are becoming hd does not mean people will need it or use it, because, think about it, the war for the proper format has barely begun. tv's are scarce, burners are almost nonexistant, and its all very pricey at the moment. give it a few years, maybe 4, and dvds and sd will seem too old for use. now im just glad because the gl2's prices are going to plumet

 

[spicyapple]

I personally think SD is dead, already. If anyone is out buying a new TV, it makes sense to buy a HD set, and all the sets now are sold in widescreen. I mean once you watch HD, it's hard going back to SD.

 

[redAPPLE]

Well, maybe if the majority of people decide that TV is a waste of time and stop watching TV altogether.

ft

which btw is true. i watch tv like 2 hours a week. the only way to keep a person sane.

 

[combatcolin]

I personally think SD is dead, already. If anyone is out buying a new TV, it makes sense to buy a HD set, and all the sets now are sold in widescreen. I mean once you watch HD, it's hard going back to SD.

True, but there sweet naff all reason for me in the UK to buy a HD set now.

My Sony 32" will last for years yet, and an in no hurry in laying down £1000+ for a bit of kit that i need to give Uncle Bill Gates £280+ in order to get any real advantage out of.

Maybe 2008.

 

[Dave00]

Currently I have a Canon XL2 that I use to shoot TV commercials for local businesses. With the majority of people buying HD tv sets, the lowering prices of blue Ray, HD-DVD drives and dvd setup player, the rumored blue ray support of the new mac, the upcoming PS3 with its blue ray drives ....etc, I anticipate all my clients are going to demand Hi-Def. If i cannot give it to them, they will simply go to my competitors.

I certainly wouldn't advise buying/using HD camcorders just yet. The main problem is, how are you going to display your work? Then end-user has to have an HD tv, which many have but far more do not. Secondly, and more importantly, they have to have a blu-ray or HD DVD player, which almost no one has and which are prohibitively expensive (and will be for some time yet). So, shooting in HD means that you have a project that takes up an enormous amount more space (translating to decreased portability), which essentially the great majority of people would only be able to view on their computer. Yes, American broadcasts are all going HD in a few years, but with the dearth of HD programming (none of the reruns or SD TV formatted movies will be in HD) alot of the shows that will actually be broadcast will be standard def.

That's why for the bedroom TV, I'm going with a standard-def LCD TV (have a DLP TV as main TV). LCD has the disadvantage of only displaying either standard def or hi def well (because 1080 and 720 aren't multiples of 480), and with a standard def you cover 480p (DVD) and 480i (SD TV) which is >90% of what you'll watch.

Dave