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So in summary, everything you stated was incorrect:

- Apple didn’t make any statements at all about how many devices they’re making*
- They’re not constraining production (they’re limited by the parts Sony can supply to them)
- Apple didn’t admit to constraining production
- They’re not “creating an artificial appearance of overwhelming demand”
- It wasn’t reported here (on Macrumors)

* Apple never make any statements about the supply chain except on their financial statements/calls, usually when an analyst asks if product x has reached supply/demand balance and Apple reply that they’re selling as many as they make, that they’re making as many as they can and they would love to be able to make more.

I’m sure we’ll hear the same during the next financial call after the Vision Pro is released.

They will also report negative issues such as when there were global supply chain delays due to the pandemic.

We can place a lot of trust in these statements because falsifying financial statements is a serious crime which can lead to big fines and jail time for executives.

So if they do say they’re making as many they can on the next call and you have any shred of evidence that they’re not then you can report this to the FBI and land Tim Cook and Luca Maestri in jail 😂

If you really, honestly think that Apple is incapable of making more than 400k of these you’re being intentionally naive. Taking what their marketing department says at face value is a massive mistake.
 
A fully loaded MacBook Pro can also run Mac apps, Windows apps (with emulation), etc. This can't. Well, pedantically, you could run Mac apps on this, but only by combining it with that fully loaded M3 MacBook Pro and using it as a glorified second display.

By itself, this can run only iOS apps plus apps specifically written for it. I can buy a refurbished 6th generation iPad for $160 that can run iOS apps. So unless the head-mounted form factor and Vision-specific apps somehow add $3339 worth of value, it really is that expensive. It's staggeringly expensive for a glorified iOS device on your face, when you compare it with, for example, Google Cardboard. 😁

(Yes, that last bit is sarcasm, but only up to a point.)

Yup. And that decision basically eliminates the #1 reason people buy VR/AR hardware. I can't remember the exact number with absolute certainty, but I remember reading that somewhere in the neighborhood of 75% of VR headset buyers intended to use it for porn. Apple won't let people put porn on their store. Therefore, by locking it down like iOS, Apple wiped out 75% of this product's potential market right off the bat.

The remaining potential market gets wiped out for other reasons, as noted below.

If they were thinking clearly, they'd launch it with full Mac compatibility, not just iOS compatibility. Apple's bizarre complete control fetish (App-Store-ification) is what's going to end up killing this platform, IMO. If it could run all Mac apps without restriction on day one, it wouldn't matter what software was out there, because it would be a real computer in and of itself. And apps could then figure out what cool stuff they can do with it over time.

As it stands, most of the stuff I'd like to do on this hardware can't be done because of the App Store. In particular, their policies are incompatible with the software licenses of all the Free Software 3D modeling apps I use, which means they will literally never be available on the platform unless Apple opens it up.

And by letting app developers ship apps directly to consumers, that would also give Apple the ability to sell to all the people who want to use it for porn content without Apple having to make it available on their own store site. (Yeah, in theory, you might kind of be able to do some of that to a limited extent with the web, but realistically, no, nobody is going to rewrite software like that in JavaScript with WebGL.)

As designed, though, it doesn't make sense to use it unless every app you need to run can run on iOS or as a native VisionOS app. That knocks out most of the rest of the market, except for people wiling to use it as an external display for their Mac.

And all it would take is Meta spending a few days of engineering time to make a tethered display mode for macOS (it already exists for Windows), and even that market would pretty much evaporate, since the Quest 2 is almost an order of magnitude less expensive.

So I'm struggling to figure out who will buy this other than people who have extra money that they don't know what to do with, and who really want to play with new toys. That market isn't zero, but it won't sustain a product line long-term. And given that 13 years after iPad became available, it still has a tiny fraction of the Mac platform's market share and still hasn't come close to functional parity with the Mac in spite of costing half as much, I can't imagine any universe in which a similarly limited product costing two or three times as much as the cheapest Mac laptop could ever be anything other than a giant money pit for Apple unless they open it up to Mac apps.

The problem with this device is that every idea I come up with for how I would use it is thwarted by Apple's very deliberate crippling of the device by making it a glorified iOS toy rather than a real computer with AR/VR capabilities. And I think you'll find that sentiment is widespread among people who were initially interested in buying this product.

I've been saying for years that the best thing Apple could do for the iPad Pro series would be to make them run Mac Apps, and that is doubly true for the Vision Pro. As it stands, the devices are crippled by Apple's chronic shortsightedness and irrational desire to control what their users can do with the devices that they paid for, and the result is and will continue to be a vastly inferior user experience until Apple gets over that.

My biggest problem is that I want this device as it was originally described — a spatial computer. Instead, it's a spatial iPhone, which I have remarkably close to zero interest in. The hardware itself sounds like it is going to be downright amazing, but as long as it is based on iOS rather than macOS, the software side is going to be so crippled that I can't justify buying it. And that annoys the heck out of me, both as a Mac user and a stockholder.

If this were a dumb headset with similar capabilities that could connect to a Mac over USB-C for $300, I'd buy it in a heartbeat. If this were a full-fledged Mac, I'd buy it in a heartbeat. But instead, it has all the hardware to be a Mac and costs as much as a Mac (and then some), but can't actually run Mac software. As a result, without tethering it to a Mac and turning it into a very overpriced version of that $300 headset, it can't do any of the things I would want to be able to do with it unless they miraculously get a bunch of companies that still don't even support iOS to suddenly decide that spatial computing is a good idea. Everything about that approach seems like the worst of all possible worlds to me.

If this product fails, I doubt it will matter, because the stock market has likely already factored this product's widely predicted failure into the share price. More to the point, as a stockholder (of more than 500 shares), I certainly hope that this is the case. 😁

As my experience articulating this same criticism many times shows, there is a large faction of people who believe that Vision Pro is running what amounts to MacOS. If you dare to point out that VisionOS is a variant of iOS people become enflamed and hostile. But the fact is that you’re correct. The Vision Pro is a fancy iPad, not a computer. It’s an iPhone accessory, not a stand alone platform.

Just watch…
 
So I'm struggling to figure out who will buy this other than people who have extra money that they don't know what to do with, and who really want to play with new toys. That market isn't zero, but it won't sustain a product line long-term. And given that 13 years after iPad became available, it still has a tiny fraction of the Mac platform's market share and still hasn't come close to functional parity with the Mac in spite of costing half as much, I can't imagine any universe in which a similarly limited product costing two or three times as much as the cheapest Mac laptop could ever be anything other than a giant money pit for Apple unless they open it up to Mac apps.

So first of all, thanks for your respectful and in depth analysis of how you see the AVP. I am not sure I agree with everything you say, but you make some good points and took the time to elaborate so I can at least understand where you are coming from.

Much better than the "it sucks. It's going to flop" type of comment which we see a lot of here.

And I do agree that I wish my iPad could run MacOS and the AVP as well. I suspect for the iPad thats mostly a marketing decision, for the AVP it might reflect how you interact with your eyes. MacOS really needs a very fine level of motor control. We will see when the AVP is actually released.

However, I do NOT know what you mean that the iPad has a tiny fraction of the Mac's Market sales. By unit volume the iPad outsells the Mac, 61 million iPads and 26 million Mac and MacBook units were sold in 2022, of course they are both dwarfed by the 232 million iPhones sold lol. (https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/). I don't know what that translates into revenue but certainly the iPad market is not a tiny fraction, and is likely larger than the Mac. This is a key point, because it does suggest a LOT of people do in fact accept the limitations of IOS. And certainly they accept that in their phones.

I certainly agree that I wish IOS and iPadOS would improve on the file management system. To me thats where it really pales in comparison to MacOS, but I know people also want multiple accounts as well. I do see things improving on the file management system. The whole design philosophy of the iPad is to make it as simple as possible and I do see why Apple may want to continue that in the AVP.

btw, while we are dreaming and stating preferences. My ideal has long been my only computer is my phone running a competent OS (MacOS?) that takes advantage of whatever external hardware is available, keyboards, mice, displays and adapts accordingly. The more capable the external hardware, the more functions provided by the OS. In that environment I can see a headset working perfectly, especially with simplified controls.

But thats not the AVP. Like you say the AVP is for people with the money (I do know what to do with it) and who like to play with the future.
 
If you really, honestly think that Apple is incapable of making more than 400k of these you’re being intentionally naive. Taking what their marketing department says at face value is a massive mistake.

Give me data that says otherwise, because I am not into conspiracy theories and otherwise you are asking me to take your opinion at face value, and eh, I will place my bets Apple has some idea what it's doing. There have been plenty of people who make this their business to know that suggest Apple is indeed restrained by the display capability. https://www.uploadvr.com/apple-vision-pro-production-severely-constrained/
 
Give me data that says otherwise, because I am not into conspiracy theories and otherwise you are asking me to take your opinion at face value, and eh, I will place my bets Apple has some idea what it's doing. There have been plenty of people who make this their business to know that suggest Apple is indeed restrained by the display capability. https://www.uploadvr.com/apple-vision-pro-production-severely-constrained/

In other words you take their marketing at face value.

What I said is not a “conspiracy theory,” so feel free not to accuse me of such nonsense.
 
As my experience articulating this same criticism many times shows, there is a large faction of people who believe that Vision Pro is running what amounts to MacOS. If you dare to point out that VisionOS is a variant of iOS people become enflamed and hostile. But the fact is that you’re correct. The Vision Pro is a fancy iPad, not a computer. It’s an iPhone accessory, not a stand alone platform.

Just watch…

I fully accept on face value because thats what Apple has said, that VisionOS is a variant of IOS. I havent seen any (though I allow I might have missed some) saying otherwise. Sure a year ago we all hoped it was a variant of MacOS, but Apple was clear that it was not. That does not make the AVP a fancy iPad. Shrugs. Nor can you say the iPad is not a computer itself. And clearly it's not a phone accessory (yet) as it does have its own M2 chip. Those type of statements is what some will disagree with :)
 
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As my experience articulating this same criticism many times shows, there is a large faction of people who believe that Vision Pro is running what amounts to MacOS. If you dare to point out that VisionOS is a variant of iOS people become enflamed and hostile. But the fact is that you’re correct. The Vision Pro is a fancy iPad, not a computer. It’s an iPhone accessory, not a stand alone platform.

Just watch…

Who are these large factions of people becoming enflamed and hostile that believe AVP is running MacOS?
 
What I said is not a “conspiracy theory,” so feel free not to accuse me of such nonsense.
This is accurate. As stated, what you said is merely a "theory." In order to qualify as a conspiracy theory you'd have to actually explain your reasoning instead of just insulting people who don't agree with you.

Your posts are bereft of details in a way that disqualifies them from being actual conspiracy theories.
 
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In other words you take their marketing at face value.

What I said is not a “conspiracy theory,” so feel free not to accuse me of such nonsense.

In other words, I accept what is logical. Right now it's a niche product with niche availability of very specialized components. Did I say you were spreading a conspiracy theory? No. I said I am not into them (I am not) and a separate thought, that you have given no data for me to judge for myself what is or isnt true about the production capabilities for the AVP, and without data, its just your opinion. Don't keep telling us who we should believe or not believe. Give us data.
 
I fully accept on face value because thats what Apple has said, that VisionOS is a variant of IOS. I havent seen any (though I allow I might have missed some) saying otherwise. Sure a year ago we all hoped it was a variant of MacOS, but Apple was clear that it was not. That does not make the AVP a fancy iPad. Shrugs. Nor can you say the iPad is not a computer itself. And clearly it's not a phone accessory (yet) as it does have its own M2 chip. Those type of statements is what some will disagree with :)

It’s a variant of iOS. Inside Apple’s walled garden. Incapable of running MacOS software. Incapable (by design) of running software not found in Apple’s App Store.

iPad has an M series chip. That means nothing so long as it’s running iOS. Apple retains a stranglehold on what users can and can’t run on iOS based systems.

Let’s not pretend that iOS = MacOS in any realistic and significant way, because that just isn’t accurate and we all know it.
 
This is accurate. As stated, what you said is merely a "theory." In order to qualify as a conspiracy theory you'd have to actually explain your reasoning instead of just insulting people who don't agree with you.

Your posts are bereft of details in a way that disqualifies them from being actual conspiracy theories.

Also incorrect, but not an unexpected reply given the general cultural context of the moment.

My reasoning has already been explained, by me, many times over. Your accusations are blankly false.
 
If you really, honestly think that Apple is incapable of making more than 400k of these you’re being intentionally naive. Taking what their marketing department says at face value is a massive mistake.
You linked to the article to back up your assertion that:
Apple has already admitted that they’re constraining production of the device to around 450k in the initial release.
The article says nothing of the sort. It even says that Apple asked Sony to make more and were rejected.

So again, where’s your source to back up that statement?
 
Earlier in this thread, I mentioned that my day one use-case for the AVP is a large philosophical project I'm working on. The foundation of that entire project is built upon the idea that "we" is the most misused word in human language.
Feel free to use my “pet mouse” response in your project. I’m just joking. :)
 
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I do genuinely prefer working on iPadOS over macOS, even though I still have to go back to my Mac to complete certain tasks that can’t be done on my iPad.

sincerely curious what work you prefer to do on the iPad… I absolutely prefer content consumption on my iPad but the only work I have done on it is reviewing documents and reading email. I still prefer to use Lightroom on my Mac.
 
sincerely curious what work you prefer to do on the iPad… I absolutely prefer content consumption on my iPad but the only work I have done on it is reviewing documents and reading email. I still prefer to use Lightroom on my Mac.
As a teacher, my work is split between a fair amount of word-processing involving the office suite (which I prefer to do on either my Mac or my work-issued windows laptop), and reviewing teaching material and other documents (which I can do on both a PC and an iPad).

What I like about the iPad is still its form factor, because it makes reading on the couch or bed fairly comfortable. It's thin and light and I can quickly rotate it to portrait mode when I want more vertical screen space. I have created shortcuts to quickly open selected apps in split-screen mode. For example, opening 2 notability apps side-by-side when I want to read the teacher's guide and reference the textbook at the same time.

I remember typing meeting minutes using MS Word on my iPad (back when I still had a Smart Keyboard) and it was quite convenient to immediately send it to my superior to clearance using the share sheet extension.

During the pandemic, it was handy being able to use screen recording to record screencasts on my iPad of me solving maths assignments to post online for my students to view. I made some light edits in Lumafusion before uploading directly to YouTube. And annotating on pdfs is just not feasible on the Mac because of the lack of touchscreen support.

Just yesterday, I had to send in my work laptop to my school's IT dept because it was having a blue screen of death. In the meantime, I hooked up my iPad to my 4k monitor (I maintain a docking station at my desk) and was still able to prepare some simple slides for an upcoming lesson (it's an older 2018 iPad Pro, so no real stage manager support).

Then in class, I teach with my iPad mirrored to a 2013 Apple TV.

At its heart, I feel like this whole content creation vs consumption debate just feels like an artificial distinction. Like for me, reading up on what I need to do for next week as part of my lesson preparation does fall under content consumption. And if I am not working on hefty spreadsheets or massive videos, I am not doing "real work".

How this ties back to the Vision Pro is that I believe it will open up new use cases by virtue of its form factor, not at all unlike the iPad. It will be better than the iPad or the Mac (or any other PC form factor) at certain tasks that was maybe more cumbersome to carry out because the design of the product just wasn't suited for it, just as it will likely be worse at other tasks, and I think that's where Apple is going for. They are not going to release a device that cleanly obviates the need to own any other Apple device (eg: replacing the Mac).

Many people are skeptical as to whether Apple will be able to justify its $4k price tag (possibly more, once you factor in AppleCare, lens, additional accessories and peripherals), and I guess we will just have to wait and see. :)
 
I honestly have no idea anymore what you're trying to argue. As I've understood you on many occasions, you are certain that the AVP will be flop. And yet here you're claiming that Apple could sell millions of AVP's "sight unseen."



So, Apple can sell millions of AVPs "sight unseen" but is actually artificially constraining production because of ???

Why would Apple purposefully sell less than millions if they are capable of doing so as you state above?



I don't recall ever seeing anyone claim that Vision Pro is running "what amounts to MacOS." Could you provide me a link to 3 or 4 examples of this?



An iPad is a computer. If you want to dispute this very basic idea, please provide a few definitions of "computer" from a respected sources that would define the iPad as not being a computer.

For Example:

Dictionary.com: "a programmable electronic device designed to accept data, perform prescribed mathematical and logical operations at high speed, and display the results of these operations. Mainframes, desktop and laptop computers, tablets, and smartphones are some of the different types of computers."

TechTerms.com: "A computer is a programmable machine capable of executing a programmed list of instructions, accepting input, and returning output. While many mechanical devices can technically function as computers, the term commonly refers to digitalelectronic computers."

Or, to the iPad itself, from Wikipedia: "The iPad is a brand of iOS and iPadOS-based tablet computers that are developed by Apple Inc., first introduced on January 27, 2010. The iPad range consists of the original iPad lineup and the flagship products iPad Mini, iPad Air, and iPad Pro."



I don't recall anyone pretending that IOS = MacOS. What would be the point of pretending such a thing? Can you provide me a link to 3 or 4 examples of people pretending that IOS = MacOS?

That’s way too much rationalization to take very seriously, actually.
 
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