The same amount of evidence you have that there will be a new iPhone this summer.
It's all speculation, and at this point, all I'm saying is: It's POSSIBLE that they don't release a new phone this summer.
Not really. There have numerous articles (many of them on this site) speaking of industry insiders saying a new iPhone will be out this summer. After that, we look at how Apple has been and is a very predictable company, we have a buyer's guide for heavens sake!
After that we have evidence in the old 3.0 OS and the new 4.0 OS of a few new iPhones, indicating Apple is already working on the next one (so this one must be done/close to release).
What do you have? A gut feeling?
I'm sorry my friend, but because Apple has released an iPhone every summer since the original, and there isn't a single piece of evidence to say other wise this year...the burden of proof falls on you.
I think you guys are confusing release with announce. Apple "announces" the new iPhone OS a few months prior to give Devs a heads up of what to expect and to get their apps ready. The software is released with the new hardware.
Expect 4.0 to be released a few days prior to the hardware release, just like last year to prevent a total meltdown of the servers.
I'm fully aware of Apple's habits of releasing dev kits 3-4 months early. I'm using one of the dev kits as I type. If you read any of my previous posts you'll this. But regardless, they do in a way release the software....not directly but they release info about it to the public and an SDK to us devs.