It was only a matter of time before this thread returned. Don't get your hopes up just yet Sox fans as you will have a tough west coast swing in the next few weeks as the Yankees will be coasting by playing some of the leagues worst teams. Now before you try to catch the Yankees you might want to watch out for the Angels, Rangers, and A's as they are in a close race for the Wild Card and AL West. Now lets say the Sox do manage to win the Wild Card and catch the yankees in the east, the numbers are still stacked against them because Boston always seems to find a way to choke when they get really close to something big, Kind of like game 7 of last years ALCS. So as the season gets to the home stretch just remember that the curse of the Bambino lives stronger than ever and may the best team (Yankees) win.
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Sox Sweep Yanks
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I doubt they'll be able to take the east. I'd love to see them win the wild card, but they'd have tough teams to beat to get any further. Including another series with the Yankees...At least Don Zimmer won't be around 
My Concern Isn't the Red Sox...
Only once have I had to worry about the Sox in the last 25 years: 1986. The Yankees' biggest problem isn't their divisional rivals, but their defense. Their pitching (or lack thereof) and fielding (or lack thereof) will not get them past the Cardinals -- who have been near-pertfect in every department -- should they face each other in the WS.
Right now, I think their pitchers will hurt them more than the Red Sox will.
BTW Macnut, great post. That just might be proof that there is some sort of curse against the Sox. It would also be hilarious.
MacNut said:Ya know what would be ironic and would just be the worst thing to happen to the Sox, A Cubs Red Sox World Series coming down to a game 7 in Chicago with Nomar hitting a bottom of the 9th walk off Homerun.
Only once have I had to worry about the Sox in the last 25 years: 1986. The Yankees' biggest problem isn't their divisional rivals, but their defense. Their pitching (or lack thereof) and fielding (or lack thereof) will not get them past the Cardinals -- who have been near-pertfect in every department -- should they face each other in the WS.
Right now, I think their pitchers will hurt them more than the Red Sox will.
BTW Macnut, great post. That just might be proof that there is some sort of curse against the Sox. It would also be hilarious.
has anyone here heard of pythagorian theorem for baseball? basically, you look at runs scored (RS) and runs against (RA) of a team. in general, the team's winning percentage closely follows the formula:
winning % = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)
it's a well established and time tested formula - most teams fall within 2 or so games of the predicted winning %.
if a team is significantly above or below the predicted winning %, they are said to be lucky or unlucky, respectively, based on the assumption that those differences come from close, one-run games and outcome of one-run games are fairly random.
anyway, yankees have RS of 685 and RA of 618. predicted winning % is 55.1%, which means they should be 69-57, instead they are 78-48 - 9 games over the expected.
red sox have RS of 719 and RA of 595. predicted winning % is 59.3%, which means they should be 74-51, instead they are 72-53 - 2 games under the expected.
while sox defense for much of the season (before the trades) may have made them slightly more prone to being unlucky, it can be said that yankees have been very lucky. i had expected that this will catch up to them and that sometime, they'd just lose many close games in a row for no reason. and it actually happened. so it's not a surprise to me and i'm not really worried for the sox - yankees will come down a bit.
we'll see in oct.
winning % = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)
it's a well established and time tested formula - most teams fall within 2 or so games of the predicted winning %.
if a team is significantly above or below the predicted winning %, they are said to be lucky or unlucky, respectively, based on the assumption that those differences come from close, one-run games and outcome of one-run games are fairly random.
anyway, yankees have RS of 685 and RA of 618. predicted winning % is 55.1%, which means they should be 69-57, instead they are 78-48 - 9 games over the expected.
red sox have RS of 719 and RA of 595. predicted winning % is 59.3%, which means they should be 74-51, instead they are 72-53 - 2 games under the expected.
while sox defense for much of the season (before the trades) may have made them slightly more prone to being unlucky, it can be said that yankees have been very lucky. i had expected that this will catch up to them and that sometime, they'd just lose many close games in a row for no reason. and it actually happened. so it's not a surprise to me and i'm not really worried for the sox - yankees will come down a bit.
we'll see in oct.
The Yankees and Red Sox play the first of their 6 remaining regular season games Friday night in New York, and the Yankees currently hold a 4.5 game lead over the sox as the Yanks just won today. The Sox have dropped 2 straight, might there winning streak be coming to and end. We will see what happens as who ever wins these next 6 games will probably win the AL east. Go Yankees!!
Yankees tides of fortune
Well I'll tell ya. As a transplanted Yankees fan here in Los Angeles, I've been keeping fairly close track of what's been going on. And, based on that, if I were a betting man, I'd put money on the Sox taking 4 of the 6 games. I'm not speaking with my fan's cap on, but with my objective observer's cap.
The Yankees are about 11-4 for September. Great. But their pitching has been inconsistent all year, giving rays of hope and then clouds of concern. And alternating again between the two, over and over. This inconsistency in both their starters and relievers (with Hernandez and Rivera being the only exceptions) could turn out to be our downfall during the next few weeks, if not in October.
Their hitting's been more or less consistent, altho they have been shut out a couple of times this year. Their fielding defense is average at best, and theirm pitching wavers from brilliant to embarrassing.
Based on all of this, this is my rough prediction (and I pray I'm wrong):
* The Sox will throw a few roadblocks in our way, but we'll prevail with the division crown.
* I see the possibility of us getting past the AL, though I'm basing that on overall team records & stats, not from having watched the guts and other intangibles of the division leaders. (One possible alternative: The BoSox present, I think, the primary, legitimate challenge to the Yankees in the AL. If anyone could knock us out of the ALCS, it's them. Will they? I honestly couldn't say.)
* St. Louis looks like they're going to dance through the playoffs and into the Series, where they will kill us in 5, maybe 6.
Okay fellow Yankees fans, tell me what an idiot I am for believing my team won't do it this year.
MacNut said:
Well I'll tell ya. As a transplanted Yankees fan here in Los Angeles, I've been keeping fairly close track of what's been going on. And, based on that, if I were a betting man, I'd put money on the Sox taking 4 of the 6 games. I'm not speaking with my fan's cap on, but with my objective observer's cap.
The Yankees are about 11-4 for September. Great. But their pitching has been inconsistent all year, giving rays of hope and then clouds of concern. And alternating again between the two, over and over. This inconsistency in both their starters and relievers (with Hernandez and Rivera being the only exceptions) could turn out to be our downfall during the next few weeks, if not in October.
Their hitting's been more or less consistent, altho they have been shut out a couple of times this year. Their fielding defense is average at best, and theirm pitching wavers from brilliant to embarrassing.
Based on all of this, this is my rough prediction (and I pray I'm wrong):
* The Sox will throw a few roadblocks in our way, but we'll prevail with the division crown.
* I see the possibility of us getting past the AL, though I'm basing that on overall team records & stats, not from having watched the guts and other intangibles of the division leaders. (One possible alternative: The BoSox present, I think, the primary, legitimate challenge to the Yankees in the AL. If anyone could knock us out of the ALCS, it's them. Will they? I honestly couldn't say.)
* St. Louis looks like they're going to dance through the playoffs and into the Series, where they will kill us in 5, maybe 6.
Okay fellow Yankees fans, tell me what an idiot I am for believing my team won't do it this year.
Kethoticus said:
Very well said. Being a Sox fan i hope we can pull a few off from tha Yanks and make the last few weeks very interesting. As much as id like to see the Yanks not win the AL East I would prefer to see the Sox win the WS.
Who attacked whom...
This is true. Don Zimmer seems like a decent guy overall, but clearly what was Pedro to do? And he just threw him. He didn't smash his head in or do something crazy. Not that I'm sticking up for that psycho. He's the reason that melee started to begin with. Truly his character does not match his talent, and the Red Sox should be embarrassed by him (just like I didn't know which way to look when Clemens went off the deep end in 2000).
But you gotta give Sox fans credit for one thing: undying devotion and faith. In spite of their team's history of cracking and choking, they don't give up. And they shouldn't. One of these days, I don't believe they'll be disappointed. But up till now, I've yet to see a Boston team that seems to have the tangible -- as well as intangible -- qualities of a champion.
The Yankees do have some of those intangible qualities, as their 57 come-from-behind victories attest. This shows team character and a great killer instinct. But even that will cave if their defense can't hold up. Defense wins every time. And right now, St Louis seems to have the monopoly in that department, nevermind their two plus-40 HR-hitters.
MacFan26 said:
This is true. Don Zimmer seems like a decent guy overall, but clearly what was Pedro to do? And he just threw him. He didn't smash his head in or do something crazy. Not that I'm sticking up for that psycho. He's the reason that melee started to begin with. Truly his character does not match his talent, and the Red Sox should be embarrassed by him (just like I didn't know which way to look when Clemens went off the deep end in 2000).
But you gotta give Sox fans credit for one thing: undying devotion and faith. In spite of their team's history of cracking and choking, they don't give up. And they shouldn't. One of these days, I don't believe they'll be disappointed. But up till now, I've yet to see a Boston team that seems to have the tangible -- as well as intangible -- qualities of a champion.
The Yankees do have some of those intangible qualities, as their 57 come-from-behind victories attest. This shows team character and a great killer instinct. But even that will cave if their defense can't hold up. Defense wins every time. And right now, St Louis seems to have the monopoly in that department, nevermind their two plus-40 HR-hitters.
MacNut said:
If an old dumb fat bald guy charged me, I'd grab him by the melon and chuck him too.
I would say it was more Manny's (over)reaction to the high and inside pitch by Clemens.Kethoticus said:
We will certainly see what the Red Sox are made of with the up coming series against the New York Yankees. As one commentator mentioned the Red Sox could catchup or be behind by seven.
The Red Sox are once again looking to boost income.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2004/09/16/red_sox_look_to_add_up_to_2000_seats/
The Red Sox are once again looking to boost income.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2004/09/16/red_sox_look_to_add_up_to_2000_seats/
There have also been talk about building a new Yankee Stadium across the street that would hold 50,000 seats and be modeled after the original stadium design. I would hate too see that cathedral torn down, and as much as I hate the Red Sox I think Fenway should stay as it is to preserve baseball history.
That would be kinda cool, the original stadium, or at least pre-1975 or whenever they remodeled it, was quite cool. You gotta love those sea green seats.MacNut said:
BWA HAHAHAHAdecksnap said:Sox will not have their best three pitchers on the mound, but then again... I guess you don't need them-
