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Steve Jobs Reassures Employees and Investors

gkarris said:
Let's get real here.
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Fine, but the "economic stimulus package" isn't directed any at one industry, let alone, one company. It's supposed to act like a shot of adrenalin to the economy as a whole.

But you are certainly right that the markets get into crisis of confidence mode with Apple on a fairly regular basis. The crisis has always passed in time and long-term investors are rewarded.
 
It is the economy.
Apple does not produce or sell products that are staples such as Gas, electricity, food, housing, transportation, others. Apple products are akin to luxury items and a lot of people consider them over priced.

As such the market sicology is that people will shy away from purchasing Apple products and instead used their money for their basic needs.

The market is probably considering that Apple sales will be depressed for close to a year or two, making them not a good investment at this time.

By them posting extimates lower than the analyst, it confirmed it in the analyst mind, as such the big drop at first and it was followed then by further reductions that are being applied acrros the board to all companies that produce or sale non-basic items.

I expect a lot of fluctuation in the next few months, follow by a slow crawl upward until about October, then a somewhat big jump in anticipation of Xmass followed by 1 step back and two forward about every other quater.

I am guessing the stock will be around 180 by November and 160 in January and for it to start climing backup after March at bigger steps.

Just a guess guys based on some observations!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
IJ Reilly said:
Fine, but the "economic stimulus package" isn't directed any at one industry, let alone, one company. It's supposed to act like a shot of adrenalin to the economy as a whole.

But you are certainly right that the markets get into crisis of confidence mode with Apple on a fairly regular basis. The crisis has always passed in time and long-term investors are rewarded.
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So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.
 
EagerDragon said:
So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.
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It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.
 
IJ Reilly said:
It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.
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A nice one year tax reduction of 50% of my taxes (about the same amount as some people salary for a year) will get me to dance a tune or two (lampshade excluded).
 
Kind of funny that this reassurance comes from Steve Jobs, a poor, poor man. I'd be worried about the stock as well if I only owned 5 million shares, plus an additional $13 billion.
 
IJ Reilly said:
It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.
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Not really so. I as far as my new tires - it would've gone on the credit card instead. People are just going to use the money to buy something they would've have bought or borrowed to buy anyways.

If it hurts anyone, it'll hurt only the credit card companies... people won't have to borrow to buy that essential, or use the money to pay back the credit card companies to avoid more fees...
 
EagerDragon said:
A nice one year tax reduction of 50% of my taxes (about the same amount as some people salary for a year) will get me to dance a tune or two (lampshade excluded).
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That's just the issue -- it's not designed to get you dancing a jig. If you believe in the stimulus theory (and I'm not sold on it), then tax reductions don't really work because the impact will come too late to make a difference. The idea is to pump money into the economy right now. Like I said, I'm not defending the stimulus theory, just pointing out how it's supposed to work.
 
Arnold Ziffel said:
Comparing Apple to Enron is despicable. Enron was a corporation built upon lies, deceit, and quicksand. Apple is a successful, growing compan, which is producing cutting edge products its competitors would kill to have.

The things goobers say to spread FUD!
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Do you have any idea what you are talking about?
 
gkarris said:
Not really so. I as far as my new tires - it would've gone on the credit card instead.
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If you bought the tires today instead of waiting another month or two, then the stimulus advocates would say it was a success. I'm not an economist but I believe it doesn't matter to this theory if you used the money to pay down a credit card balance or to buy something with cash because reducing your balance frees up credit which you are likely to use.
 
IJ Reilly said:
That's just the issue -- it's not designed to get you dancing a jig. If you believe in the stimulus theory (and I'm not sold on it), then tax reductions don't really work because the impact will come too late to make a difference. The idea is to pump money into the economy right now. Like I said, I'm not defending the stimulus theory, just pointing out how it's supposed to work.
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The stimulus package that was introduced several years ago worked. I hope this one works as well.

If anyone doesn't want their check, they are welcome to donate the money to charity or send it back to the IRS. ;)
 
gnasher729 said:
If you know of any similarities between Apple and Enron then please tell us. We are all very, very curious.
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Arnold Ziffel wrote
"Enron was a corporation built upon lies, deceit, and quicksand. Apple is a successful, growing compan, which is producing cutting edge products its competitors would kill to have".

I don't believe he knows much about Enron. They were a good company with a lot of talented people who were betrayed by their blind loyalty to their leadership and corporate cheerleading. Apple is not Enron, but simply because we like Apple's products does not make them immune to corporate misdeeds. (I don't know of any)
 
ddavid said:
The stimulus package that was introduced several years ago worked. I hope this one works as well.

If anyone doesn't want their check, they are welcome to donate the money to charity or send it back to the IRS. ;)
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I don't know if that one actually worked or just put off the inevitable. I know the one they are pushing through now is basically like giving a shot of liquor to the person in rehab. It'll only do a little bit in the short term and in the end won't change the outcome. The country is addicted and drunk to free credit. Of course free credit couldn't last and we're now seeing the hangover from that. Lower home prices and foreclosures have a long to way to go before things turn around. We're going to have to get all the people out of houses they couldn't afford in the first place before we see the bottom.
 
EagerDragon said:
So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.
Click to expand...

The basic premise is one of the money multiplier. If I give you $100 you weren't expecting to get, then (with a bit of luck!) you will go spend it. 20 other people do the same thing. Let's say that some of them shop at the same place (obviously they do when it's 20mm people so go with me here...) Now, the firm in question feels like things aren't so bad. So they go ahead with some small investment they were planning on making. Other firms do the same. And so it goes.

It's basically to keep the mindset away from saving. Of course the risk (see my luck statement above) is that people take their windfall and save it because they're still worried.

At the end of the day the markets are self fulfilling prophesies. The market is tanking right now because enough people are worried (based on speculation) and are hence selling. That's how it's always worked.

People invest in stocks for 2 reasons: 1) For long term fundamental reasons. 2) Speculation on market volatility for short term gain. 20 years ago, it was mostly (1). Like 95% plus. Speculation was a tiny bubble. Now, it's the other way around. 95% of trading is speculative. The result is more volatility. Over time, prices reflect the fundamental. But that's over multiple years. Short term prices reflect volatility and short-term views.

And don't forget, Apple ALWAYS gives pessimistic guidance on the upcoming quarter...
 
eastcoastsurfer said:
I don't know if that one actually worked or just put off the inevitable. I know the one they are pushing through now is basically like giving a shot of liquor to the person in rehab. It'll only do a little bit in the short term and in the end won't change the outcome. The country is addicted and drunk to free credit. Of course free credit couldn't last and we're now seeing the hangover from that. Lower home prices and foreclosures have a long to way to go before things turn around. We're going to have to get all the people out of houses they couldn't afford in the first place before we see the bottom.
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Let me correct you on that - used to afford...

Many I know were laid off and if they did managed to find another job - it was at half their original pay (like me...).
 
Buying opportunity

While there has been a predictable drop in most tech companies and makers of luxury goods thanks to the economic crisis in the US, AAPL has suffered more than many others.

Since the drop there appears to be concern about the number of iPhones that haven't been activated on approved carriers. Wall Street has made the erroneous assumption that all those phones represent lost AT&T revenue. The truth is exactly the opposite. If the iPhone was tied to "approved" carriers most of those additional sales wouldn't have happened. Apple could have sold 1.2 million fewer phones and thus lost almost half a billion dollars in revenue.

After paying all my bills there's precious little left for investment, but I did pick up 30 shares last week.
 
Stock will be fine...

There is no reason for Apple stock to be below the $200 it was a few weeks ago other than Apple is getting hit for general weakness in the economy and/or the market and a few analysts think they see weakness in that iPod sales aren't growing fast enough, even though Apple just announced the best quarter in its history.

Apple has been flying on all cylinders for some time. Just about everything they've done has been executed perfectly. All divisions have increasing sales and increasing margins. The company has $18 billion in cash.

I have bought and sold Apple stock a number of times, but right now I'm holding.

Every pundit who has been negative about Apple has been proven wrong time and time again. It was said that Apple could not succeed in the MP3 player market. It was said that Apple was finished as a computer company. It was said that the retail strategy was a bad one -- too costly (Apple has the highest per sq ft sales of any chain retailer in the U.S.), it was said that the iPhone would flop, etc. They've been wrong on every single count.

Personally, I see only one major weakness in Apple: what is the transition plan if something happens to Steve and can Apple succeed with a senior executive who is "lower key" than Steve is?

As for the stock, if I didn't have such big recent losses elsewhere, I would pick up more stock. It's a bargain right now.
 
TPALTony said:
The basic premise is one of the money multiplier. If I give you $100 you weren't expecting to get, then (with a bit of luck!) you will go spend it. 20 other people do the same thing. Let's say that some of them shop at the same place (obviously they do when it's 20mm people so go with me here...) Now, the firm in question feels like things aren't so bad. So they go ahead with some small investment they were planning on making. Other firms do the same. And so it goes.

It's basically to keep the mindset away from saving. Of course the risk (see my luck statement above) is that people take their windfall and save it because they're still worried.

At the end of the day the markets are self fulfilling prophesies. The market is tanking right now because enough people are worried (based on speculation) and are hence selling. That's how it's always worked.

People invest in stocks for 2 reasons: 1) For long term fundamental reasons. 2) Speculation on market volatility for short term gain. 20 years ago, it was mostly (1). Like 95% plus. Speculation was a tiny bubble. Now, it's the other way around. 95% of trading is speculative. The result is more volatility. Over time, prices reflect the fundamental. But that's over multiple years. Short term prices reflect volatility and short-term views.

And don't forget, Apple ALWAYS gives pessimistic guidance on the upcoming quarter...
Click to expand...

Spend now, do good for the economy, do not use it to pay old bills and do not save it. Sounds like the Social Security System. First hickup and we go in the red, not to mention the US Deb and the interest on that.

I rather save it or use it to pay down a bill so I spend less in interest.

I get your point, and while better for the economy, it may or may not be better for the individual.

There are a few countries where the people save a large percent of their salaries and consume little but produce a lot for export and USA as the great consumer, takes all the excess products from those countries which increases their wealth and their savings.
 
gkarris said:
Let me correct you on that - used to afford...

Many I know were laid off and if they did managed to find another job - it was at half their original pay (like me...).
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Nope, I'm talking about the people who bought a house with ARMs, IOs, or negam loans where the only way the math would work is if the house value continued to increase so they could later sell or refi. If you were in the housing industry and didn't see the end coming, then I don't know what else to say. 20% or more/year is not something that's ever sustainable, and if you think it is I have a tulip bulb to sell you!
 
IJ Reilly said:
If you bought the tires today instead of waiting another month or two, then the stimulus advocates would say it was a success. I'm not an economist but I believe it doesn't matter to this theory if you used the money to pay down a credit card balance or to buy something with cash because reducing your balance frees up credit which you are likely to use.
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That is whats caused this whole mess in the first place, people are living beyond their means. People bought homes they couldnt afford and then used the home equity to live lavish lives. The party is over now that thier interest only loan is resetting and the home equity ATM has run dry.

This country needs a recession as a wake up call, a $300 - $800 check is going to do squat for the economy in the long run....Its merely a Govt handout during an election year.
 
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