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As much as we would like to know how many units Apple is actually selling, they will not be reporting them.

I wonder why?
Bull answer - because Apple feels that it's irrelevant and want investors to focus on the Services revenues. Focusing on iPhone unit sales is basically disregarding the top line (revenue) and the bottom line (earnings) and zeroing in on the middle line.

Bear answer - because unit sales are imploding and Apple wants to hide that from investors. Focusing on unit sales will provide a clear picture on the health of the iOS user base, from which Apple derives revenues in the form of Services.

Take your pick, neither is incorrect.
 
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Bull answer - because Apple feels that it's irrelevant and want investors to focus on the Services revenues. Focusing on iPhone unit sales is basically disregarding the top line (revenue) and the bottom line (earnings) and zeroing in on the middle line.

Bear answer - because unit sales are imploding and Apple wants to hide that from investors. Focusing on unit sales will provide a clear picture on the health of the iOS user base, from which Apple derives revenues in the form of Services.

Take your pick, neither is incorrect.

Considering that
Apple lower revenue guidance
cut iphone production
lower iPhone prices in both China and Japan
Foxconn releasing 50k workers.

I think it is more the bear than the bull case.
 
Considering that
Apple lower revenue guidance
cut iphone production
lower iPhone prices in both China and Japan
Foxconn releasing 50k workers.

I think it is more the bear than the bull case.
Not saying you're wrong, but Apple decided to not provide unit sales numbers back in November. Which is when they guided $89-93B. Something changed drastically in the last two months of the quarter, but it had nothing to do with the decision to stop reporting unit sales.
 
Not that I really care how much apple sells, but I think there’s a spectrum of feelings about their iPhone sales that are somewhere in between “they sell fine” and “they’re doomed”. When a company sells 2 million less of a product, it’s not doomed, but it’s definitely worth noting. It ain’t nothing and it’s definitely showing a trend. If I was a shareholder I wouldn’t be super excited over the company I’ve invested in selling less product
If you were, you’d make for a poor investor, thinking in the short term is detrimental.
 
If you were, you’d make for a poor investor, thinking in the short term is detrimental.

Short-term day traders who are very much invested into the market rather than heavily loaded into specific stocks long term, trading in huge volume day in and out helps the sole investors married to a stock as investment long term.

Stock mature cannot be viewed as something like buying Apple stock and come back and check after 10 years. Even in long term Funds investors have to continuously do due diligence by shaking their portfolio as necessary.
 
So Apple seem to be in some trouble at the moment, reflected in the share price crash and the suspicion that their main driver for revenue is crumbling. Tim Cook loudly explains that China is the problem, as well as *cough* a couple of disappointing upgrade numbers in established markets.

Can anyone point out how or where these Chinese numbers are disastrous rather than just disappointing or even predictable? My overriding impression is that they are hiding something more significant than disappointing growth in China.
 
Lower priced iPhone competitors are improving the phones they make.
Apple raises prices and sales plummet in China while competitor sales rocket.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work why out Apples strategy failed shareholders expectations.
That’s because a rocket scientist would suck at business 101.

This is precisely the whole profit vs market share argument all over again.

People used to argue that the iPhone would lose to cheaper priced alternatives that were supposedly “good enough”. In reality, this is the classic “crabs in a bucket” scenario where competitors in the lower end segment of the market haemorrhage their own profitability in a desperate race to the bottom. Meanwhile, Apple, having commanded the premium end of the market, continues to monopolise the lion’s share of profits in the market.

I see the same fallacy being made today again.

That competitors are selling more units means squat if they are low-margin products which barely earn the parent companies any profit.

Meanwhile, that Apple saw a dip in iPhone sales doesn’t mean they sold fewer phones overall. It means they still saw growth, just slower than anticipated. Likewise, their installed base continues to grow (Apple is reportedly at 945 million active iPhone users) thanks to the second hand market, which means a huge install base to sell accessories, apps and services to. Meanwhile, they stand poised to pivot into new markets such as wearables, thanks to their strong mobile presence.

Apple is not losing simply because it refuses to compete in a market segment which barely earns it any profit, just as the competition isn’t necessarily winning here. Substitute Samsung for Huawei. Different era, different players, but the outcome will always be the same.
 
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So Apple seem to be in some trouble at the moment, reflected in the share price crash and the suspicion that their main driver for revenue is crumbling. Tim Cook loudly explains that China is the problem, as well as *cough* a couple of disappointing upgrade numbers in established markets.

Can anyone point out how or where these Chinese numbers are disastrous rather than just disappointing or even predictable? My overriding impression is that they are hiding something more significant than disappointing growth in China.

Yes, that people got tired of the obscene expensive Apple prices.
As simple as that. People started voting with their wallets. And Tim Cook solution focus on the tradin- in program... really? Pathetic.
 
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Yes, that people got tired of the obscene expensive Apple prices.
As simple as that. People started voting with their wallets. And Tim Cook solution focus on the tradin- in program... really? Pathetic.

And Apple is estimated to still bring in 84 billion for the quarter, which I must add, is still Apple’s second best quarter.

I guess people really did vote with their wallets.

Focusing on the trade-in programme is quite clever when you think about it. On one hand, you help remove older iPhones (6+, 6S+) from the ecosystem, thus reducing Apple’s support costs in the long run. On the other hand, you increase Apple’s installed base when these second-hand phones make their way to additional users the grey market.

And if customers traded those phones in to Apple directly, Apple still stands to profit from selling those phones to other countries. Not to mention that the people trading in their older phones are likely doing so because they intend to upgrade to the latest and greatest that Apple has to offer.

In addition, when people complain of excessive iphone prices, they often conveniently omit the fact that Apple offers a whole array of iPhones at a range of price points. If the iPhone XS is too expensive, users can still opt for a cheaper iPhone 8 or even 7.

Apple reportedly continues to increase their user base (now at 945 million iphone users) despite their higher iphone prices.

All in all, once you factor in the news of China’s economy supposedly slowing down, Apple still had a very respectable quarter and in my opinion, Apple will do just fine, though we all are going to have to just ride this out. The markets will improve at some point in the near future but for now, I expect to be getting a lot more of these stories in the near future. It’s all part of the cycle that needs to happen before Apple gets back to the good times again.

Doesn’t make it any less irritating though.

Apple is best positioned to make some big moves in to healthcare and many other things in the future that require the kind of trust and integration that ONLY Apple can do at this time.

I am still feeling great about Apple’s prospects at the moment as this slowdown in the market does not change the fundamentals as the next big thing has not happened yet. Things are not falling apart. A bad quarter or even year does not define Apple. They have been around for DECADES! They have BILLIONS in the bank and over a BILLION of the best users that are loyal to the brand. While that does not guarantee that they are going to be successful in the future, it does mean that they have some time to ride out this short term economic slowdown.

Viva la Apple!
 
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That’s because a rocket scientist would suck at business 101.

This is precisely the whole profit vs market share argument all over again.

People used to argue that the iPhone would lose to cheaper priced alternatives that were supposedly “good enough”. In reality, this is the classic “crabs in a bucket” scenario where competitors in the lower end segment of the market

Apple has hit a plateaux in sales so they have to do something to appease share holders.
If they don't have grown in iPhone, they have to get it from somewhere.

If you look at the kind of comments in these threads, you see that Apples high prices are biting. People have had enough of $1000+ phones. But you are correct, there is a certain percentage of people where price does not matter.


haemorrhage their own profitability in a desperate race to the bottom. Meanwhile, Apple, having commanded the premium end of the market, continues to monopolise the lion’s share of profits in the market.

I see the same fallacy being made today again.

That competitors are selling more units means squat if they are low-margin products which barely earn the parent companies any profit.
How much profit do the other companies make? If they have 90% of the market, they must be making something otherwise they would disappear.
Meanwhile, that Apple saw a dip in iPhone sales doesn’t mean they sold fewer phones overall.
You think iPhone sales are going to increase again? They have been flat for 4 years.
It means they still saw growth, just slower than anticipated. Likewise, their installed base continues to grow (Apple is reportedly at 945 million active iPhone users)
That is incorrect. Apple has nearer to 250-500 million users. Apple has 1.3 billion active devices that includes iPhone, iPod touch, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, and Apple Watch models in use around the world.
I don't know if I am an average user but I have a lot more Apple devices in my house compared to the number of users.
thanks to the second hand market, which means a huge install base to sell accessories, apps and services to. Meanwhile, they stand poised to pivot into new markets such as wearables, thanks to their strong mobile presence.

Apple is not losing simply because it refuses to compete in a market segment which barely earns it any profit, just as the competition isn’t necessarily winning here. Substitute Samsung for Huawei. Different era, different players, but the outcome will always be the same.
Are you saying Apple makes no profit on its iPhone XR from $449* USD or its $449 iPhone 7?
Hey come to think of it why is the iPhone XR the same price as an iPhone 7... must be some reason for this strategy?
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Focusing on the trade-in programme is quite clever when you think about it. On one hand, you help remove older iPhones (6+, 6S+) from the ecosystem, thus reducing Apple’s support costs in the long run. On the other hand, you increase Apple’s installed base when these second-hand phones make their way to additional users the grey market.

You seem to be suggesting that the phones are both taken off the market (trade in) and put back on the market (resale)
so it won't reduce support costs.
 
That is incorrect. Apple has nearer to 250-500 million users. Apple has 1.3 billion active devices that includes iPhone, iPod touch, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, and Apple Watch models in use around the world.
I don't know if I am an average user but I have a lot more Apple devices in my house compared to the number of users.
Yes, active devices does not equate directly to users.
In my own Android case, I have 5 devices in regular use.
Huawei P20 Pro main phone
Lenovo P2 (previous phone) I use for Strava etc on cycle rides
Samsung Tab A6 in house main tablet
Samsung Note 10.1 (2012) that I take in gym bag for watching videos
Nexus 7 2013 I use for ebooks and a little browsing.

My Nexus 7 did start to get laggy etc recently so I saved what I needed and did a Factory reset. As good as new now :)
 
Apple has hit a plateaux in sales so they have to do something to appease share holders.
If they don't have grown in iPhone, they have to get it from somewhere.
More accessories, higher prices, more services.

If you look at the kind of comments in these threads, you see that Apples high prices are biting. People have had enough of $1000+ phones. But you are correct, there is a certain percentage of people where price does not matter.
The people in these forums are by no means an accurate indicator of general consumer buying sentiment. Else, going by this logic, Airpods and Apple Watch bands would never have sold.

How much profit do the other companies make? If they have 90% of the market, they must be making something otherwise they would disappear.

Very little. That’s the consequence of serving the low end of the market. There’s next to no money to be made there.

You think iPhone sales are going to increase again? They have been flat for 4 years.
I think that the iPhone still has at least half a decade of good sales ahead of it. While we might see sales continue to decline gradually over time, Apple is still going to sell a significant number of them. And I wonder if Apple can yet eke out another year of minor price increases.

In the meanwhile, Apple will continue to push their wearable products as the next iPhone successor. So I don’t think there is anything to worry about with regards to profitability.

That is incorrect. Apple has nearer to 250-500 million users. Apple has 1.3 billion active devices that includes iPhone, iPod touch, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, and Apple Watch models in use around the world.
I don't know if I am an average user but I have a lot more Apple devices in my house compared to the number of users.

Nope. 945 active iPhone users should be about right (going by AboveAvalon estimates).

c956eedf4e539a5cf55a2a3e0f002be1.jpg


Either way, 250 million iPhone users is way too low.

Are you saying Apple makes no profit on its iPhone XR from $449* USD or its $449 iPhone 7?

Hey come to think of it why is the iPhone XR the same price as an iPhone 7... must be some reason for this strategy?

The iPhone XR is $449 after trading in a phone to Apple. Apple can then sell that second hand iPhone in the grey market for some cash, thus offsetting the discount. That in turn adds more users to the iPhone user base, potentially leading to more sales of accessories, apps and services.

It all works out in the end.

You seem to be suggesting that the phones are both taken off the market (trade in) and put back on the market (resale)
so it won't reduce support costs.
What I mean is that older iPhones (like the iPhone 5s and 6) can be taken out of commission while serviceable ones (like the 6s and 7) can still be supported and resold. The 5s and 6 are the last iPhones with 1 gb ram and I don’t expect ios 13 to support them, but I have been wrong before.
 
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Nope. 945 active iPhone users should be about right (going by AboveAvalon estimates).

Apple sold 216 million phones in 2017

Something doesn't add up for an installed base of 945m iPhone users.

That would suggest to me that users keep their phones for almost 5 years on average. For every person that keeps the phone for 1 year, another must keep it for 9 years and so on.

I would have thought that most people would keep their phones for 2-5 years, which means that apple have an installed base of max 750m

EDIT: this link puts it at 650m - https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-installed-base-iphone-8-stopped-growing-2017-7?r=US&IR=T

this one at 588m users https://www.businessinsider.com.au/credit-suisse-estimates-588-million-apple-users-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

I would deem these to be about right considering apple sales have plateaued over the last 4 years.

And would put the average number of devices that Apple users own at roughly 2, which means there are a lot of Apple users that only own an iPhone and no other device.
 
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Apple sold 216 million phones in 2017

Something doesn't add up for an installed base of 945m iPhone users.

That would suggest to me that users keep their phones for almost 5 years on average. For every person that keeps the phone for 1 year, another must keep it for 9 years and so on.

I would have thought that most people would keep their phones for 2-5 years, which means that apple have an installed base of max 750m

EDIT: this link puts it at 650m - https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-installed-base-iphone-8-stopped-growing-2017-7?r=US&IR=T

this one at 588m users https://www.businessinsider.com.au/credit-suisse-estimates-588-million-apple-users-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

I would deem these to be about right considering apple sales have plateaued over the last 4 years.

And would put the average number of devices that Apple users own at roughly 2, which means there are a lot of Apple users that only own an iPhone and no other device.

You are forgetting that when people buy new iPhones, their older iPhones don’t just magically disappear from circulation. They may get handed down to family members, or resold on the second hand market. iPhones continue to hold their value surprisingly well, thanks to steady software support, great durability, and strong demand, and this helps contribute to their longevity.

Assuming about 9-10% of iPhones get retired every year, this means that the majority of iPhones make it through their 5-year lifespan (though not necessarily with the same owner).

Despite being an estimate, I expect the real number (known only to Apple) to not be that far off from Neil Cybart’s numbers.
 
Short-term day traders who are very much invested into the market rather than heavily loaded into specific stocks long term, trading in huge volume day in and out helps the sole investors married to a stock as investment long term.

Stock mature cannot be viewed as something like buying Apple stock and come back and check after 10 years. Even in long term Funds investors have to continuously do due diligence by shaking their portfolio as necessary.

This is accurate.
Apple selling less iPhones is definitely not short term

Apple sold 34 million instead of 36 million, the first dip in 10 years after years of record breaking profit and being the biggest company in the world.
 
This is accurate.


Apple sold 34 million instead of 36 million, the first dip in 10 years after years of record breaking profit and being the biggest company in the world.
Yep. And? What’s your point?
 
You are forgetting that when people buy new iPhones, their older iPhones don’t just magically disappear from circulation. They may get handed down to family members, or resold on the second hand market. iPhones continue to hold their value surprisingly well, thanks to steady software support, great durability, and strong demand, and this helps contribute to their longevity.

Assuming about 9-10% of iPhones get retired every year, this means that the majority of iPhones make it through their 5-year lifespan (though not necessarily with the same owner).

Despite being an estimate, I expect the real number (known only to Apple) to not be that far off from Neil Cybart’s numbers.

What you say to some extent is true wet second hand market that there is a demand for iPhones. At the same time, it kills the Apple in selling new devices since the new iPhone buyer numbers reducing.

People buying in second hand market is not credible committed customers since they don't get to taste services of Apple, they typically may not invest on ocosystem prosprod, it's paid services and those second hand customers who have encountered battery throttling, slow performance, display issues etc will all be having different take on Apple products & it's services (since they buy aged,used one but with expectations that it is premium brans and they don't get Apple care warranty). There is no way Apple can reach out to these crowd to assess their satisfaction levels, which infact can potentially impact it's it's valur perception. This market is not something premium brands target unless they make timeless products like Leica Lens, Swiss Watches...
 
In addition, when people complain of excessive iphone prices, they often conveniently omit the fact that Apple offers a whole array of iPhones at a range of price points. If the iPhone XS is too expensive, users can still opt for a cheaper iPhone 8 or even 7.

Really, having a trading program, does not mean iPhone prices are still ridiculously expensive.
And having an iPhone 7, a 3 year old phone, as an economic entry level rather than releasing a new low entry level iphone is also pathetic.

And Apple is estimated to still bring in 84 billion for the quarter, which I must add, is still Apple’s second best quarter.

It is pathetic how you ignore the most recent numbers.
- Apple lowered its own guidance
- Reduced iPhone prices both in China and Japan. And problems to get in India.
- Stock price tanked almost 40%
- Apple cut iPhone production
- Foxconn fired almost 50k employees.
- Macbook and iPad unit sales were actually lower than last quarter.
- Apple cancel reporting unit sales numbers, due to the reason that sales are slowing.

In addition, excluding the Apple watch, in the last 10 years, there was no true innovation in the entire Apple line up. The entire computer line up is overpriced and underspec. They look completely outdated and the Apple quality is not what is used to be anymore. Just look at the Macbook Pro and what happened in the last 3 years. 2016 through 2018, was a failure in design and quality. So much so that in the first week of release they discounted the entire dongle/adaptor line up. Bad keyboard, useless touchbar, overheating, removing mag-safe, problems with speakers, and can continue, but you can see below all the shady issues with Mabooks.

Through this last 10 years, Tim Cook showed us that he is a great product manager. Yes Apple has a lot of money, which does not mean the products are great. Cook is not an innovator that can deliver innovative products.

It is certainly not the end of Apple, but it does not look that promising, especially for a company that used to be the leader in innovation and quality.

What is happening to Apple?

MAcbook Pro Shading issues

Dreaming and putting your head on the sand will not make reality go away.
 
Assuming about 9-10% of iPhones get retired every year, this means that the majority of iPhones make it through their 5-year lifespan (though not necessarily with the same owner).
That is an assumption If Apple did sell 217m to reach peak of 950m then 217 are being retired every year so would be 20% at that rate. And at that rate, old phones even if resold have limited life. Someone buying a phone that is worth less than $100 is not going to do a battery replacement, they will just buy another one, so those used phones would get used up quicker. We all know that phones need a new battery every 2-5 years.
Then there are a lot of us that can't be bothered selling their old phones - I have an iPhone 3gs, 4 and 5 sitting on a charging table.
People are also hanging on to their phones longer, making used phones less likely to be resold
 
Really, having a trading program, does not mean iPhone prices are still ridiculously expensive.
And having an iPhone 7, a 3 year old phone, as an economic entry level rather than releasing a new low entry level iphone is also pathetic.

What I am saying is that iPhone prices can afford to be as high as they are because of those aforementioned reasons. Since older iPhones still hold their value fairly well, someone looking to upgrade can trade it in to offset part of the price of a new iPhone, thus making the price more palatable and increasing Apple’s installed base.

In addition, buying trends have shown that people would rather be seen carrying an older iphone that was once considered the best, rather than purchase a phone everyone knows is a “cheap iphone”.

To put it bluntly, it’s only the economists who are ignorant of Apple’s user’s base that is clamouring for a cheaper iphone. In reality, this concept won’t work. Apple’s user base only want the best (or what was once the best), are willing to pay for it, and will not accept any substitutes.

It is pathetic how you ignore the most recent numbers.
- Apple lowered its own guidance
- Reduced iPhone prices both in China and Japan. And problems to get in India.
- Stock price tanked almost 40%
- Apple cut iPhone production
- Foxconn fired almost 50k employees.
- Macbook and iPad unit sales were actually lower than last quarter.
- Apple cancel reporting unit sales numbers, due to the reason that sales are slowing.

What’s even sadder is that everyone is rushing to pin them on whatever Apple is doing that they don’t agree with. Ignoring that there may also be perfectly legitimate reasons for them, such as a possible impending recession in China, or that India may simply need to be written off in the short run because its economy simply can’t support iphone pricing.

I think I have addressed those points individually at one time or another. I might go back to them later, after returning from my run (and breakfast).

In addition, excluding the Apple watch, in the last 10 years, there was no true innovation in the entire Apple line up. The entire computer line up is overpriced and underspec. They look completely outdated and the Apple quality is not what is used to be anymore. Just look at the Macbook Pro and what happened in the last 3 years. 2016 through 2018, was a failure in design and quality. So much so that in the first week of release they discounted the entire dongle/adaptor line up. Bad keyboard, useless touchbar, overheating, removing mag-safe, problems with speakers, and can continue, but you can see below all the shady issues with Mabooks.

I agree that Apple seems to have screwed the pooch with the MacBook Pro, and I am personally not too worried, because it was clear to me right from the start that Apple’s heart was never in the Mac line to begin with.

It’s clear where Apple’s future lies in. Wearables, health, AR, self-driving cars. Look to this, and you will see that Apple’s future is as bright as ever.

And I would say that 2-3 new product categories every 10 years sounds about right.

Through this last 10 years, Tim Cook showed us that he is a great product manager. Yes Apple has a lot of money, which does not mean the products are great. Cook is not an innovator that can deliver innovative products.

I agree with you.

And that’s because Tim Cook isn’t Apple’s product visionary. That role is being fulfilled by Jony Ive.

Instead, Tim Cook is the steady hand Apple needs to weather through this new raft of challenges (namely political and economic ones). Challenges, I dare say, that not even Steve Jobs would have been able to handle were he still alive.

It is certainly not the end of Apple, but it does not look that promising, especially for a company that used to be the leader in innovation and quality.

What is happening to Apple?

MAcbook Pro Shading issues

Dreaming and putting your head on the sand will not make reality go away.
Nor is running around and crying “the sky is falling” at every instance of negative Apple news. Everyone is using every chance they get to criticise Apple for every misstep, be it real or imagined, while refusing to give Apple proper credit for what it did well.

Tales of Apple’s impending doom have been way over exaggerated.

You will see. They will all see.
 
Nor is running around and crying “the sky is falling” at every instance of negative Apple news. Everyone is using every chance they get to criticise Apple for every misstep, be it real or imagined, while refusing to give Apple proper credit for what it did well.

Tales of Apple’s impending doom have been way over exaggerated.

You will see. They will all see.


In any forum you are going to have opposing views, its just a fact of life and not worth worrying about.
 
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