Survey: 35% of U.S. Consumers Planning to Purchase Next-Generation iPhone

[Sjhonny]

This is HUGE. It means Apple could sell 100 million units this year + next in the USA alone.

100 million units!!!

If it happens then Android is DOA.

You got the numbers wrong. It's Google that's activating more Android phones then Apple activates iOS devices. Apple sold 220 million iOS devices in the past five years Worldwide + you're only with 300 million in your country, of which about 2/3 is an official consumer (kids, grannies, aliens, agoraphobics ... are excluded), so how would you explain they'd increase that number by 50% in just one year based on US-only sales?

And on what is that 35% based? I'm guessing on average, a person buys a new mobile phone every three years? Or even if it's two years, this would mean that at least 70% of the personers who are planning on buying a phone next year, will buy an iPhone. And no way this happens in any 201x year.

It's a (very) decent phone, with great costumers support backing it, but 70% of US consumers buying this 600+ bucks device? Hell no.

 

[imwoblin]

As many people have already said, the headlines are completely misleading. It should state "35% of the people who responded will purchase an iPhone 5, not 35% of US consumers....

 

[taskmanager]

I can't wait to get one. I already pre ordered a screen protector for it. 80% for a pre order is awesome http://xoskins.com/cell-phone-skin-protectors/apple-skin-protectors/apple-iphone-5-screen-protector

I just really hope it has lte. I have seen sprints 4g and it wont work in a building, but lte does since it uses a lower frequency.

 

[arbitter]

The point of a survey is to represent the general people. Ofcourse if you do an online survey, you are locked on to people that have internet. Nevertheless, if the survey is executed decently, they propose the survey to people from all sorts of classes, different types of income, and so on, to represent all of America.

Ofcourse I don't know if it is executed fairly. I think many 3GS owners think it's time for an upgrade by now. Nevertheless, I find a new 700-euro phone even every two years a lot. For once, I might be buying one, and almost certainly if the prices are down. But not if the prices are down on any of the older models.

 

[accessoriesguy]

So all apple has to really do, is make sure to do 2 changes to the iPhone, and they will get a huge pay day for it?

Apple might as well do what the people want and cash in on this cash cow

 

[pmz]

No 4G/LTE is a deal-breaker for most people that buy phones unsubsidized.

Seriously, I've had 50Mb/s 4G/LTE since December 2009. And it's STILL not in a new Apple phone.

That's why Apple will always lose global market share to Samsung/HTC. In addition to the previous no-unsubsidized crap from previous iPhones.

Yea ok, on what planet?

No one cares, sorry. What backwards, unintelligible post.

 

[Gregintosh]

If the next iPhone is a big change and a really awesome change, then I will sell my Verizon iPhone (which I just got 2 weeks ago) and buy it outright.

I already sold my 3GS for $200, so if I can get $450 for my Verizon iPhone, then it will be like a free upgrade (assuming the full retail cost is still $649).

However, if this turns out to be basically the iPhone 4 with:

- A5 chip
- Better camera
- 4G/LTE (which I don't care for)
- Marginally better battery

Then I will Probably pass and wait until iPhone 6.

With iOS 5 working perfectly on the iPhone 4 (since its fast enough) I think that will keep me pretty satisfied unless there is some major KILLER FEATURE exclusive to the iPhone 5 (and quite frankly, I can't think of anything in the rumor mill that would qualify).

 

[Defthand]

Where's the missing 20 percent?

The survey states that an overwhelming 48 percent prefer Apple's iOS over the Android OS (19 percent). Windows and Blackberry elicited 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. Together, that's only 80 percent of the respondents. Did 20 percent not answer the question, or did they not care?

Odd that Android only elicited 19 percent considering the number of phones sold with their OS.

 

[blastair]

I Might

I will likely purchase one if an unlocked version is available day 1.

 

[Faveokatro]

It's not a waste of time and it's not a survey of people who own smartphones. It's a fair unbiased sample of people who are buying stuff online. Now you may argue that people who buy stuff online aren't a fair sample... fine. But you're flat out lying if you claim that only smartphone owners were surveyed.

Apple could sell 100 million units in the US next year. There is a general perception among everyone you talk to from tech geeks to grandma in rural Kentucky that iPhone is the best phone on the market.

It's not fair or unbiased, and trying to call someone a liar won't help you.

Right now, 25% (Yes, *25%*) of the ENTIRE US owns a smartphone. That includes Apple, Android, Blackberries, and whatever pissant percentage Nokia has. So the prediction that 35% of the US market would buy an iphone 5 implies every single smartphone user converting to Apple and an immediate 50% increase in smartphone usage overall.

It's not happening. Even if the iPhone 5 is revolutionary, it's simply not possible to ship 100m units in the US alone in 1 year.

 

[Domalais]

It's a fair unbiased sample of people who are buying stuff online.

In what terrifying alternate reality is a voluntary survey on a website a fair and unbiased sample?

 

[THX1139]

I would love to get an iPhone, but the monthly costs are ridiculous. That's why I went with Android on an LG Optimus. It's a really decent smartphone that allows me to get unlimited internet, text, and 300 minutes for $25 a month. When I figure out how to get the same deal on an iPhone, I'll buy one.

 

[Glideslope]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_5 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8L1 Safari/6533.18.5)

The Assimilation Continues.

Bow Before the Zen Master.

 

[nylonsteel]

my guess is 40% chance fall release of iP5
imho - 60% chance Feb 2012 release

 

[toddybody]

I most certainly won't.

Yuckie! Me neither. If Apple has proven one thing, they have horrible phones.






If it's ANYTHING like the iP4...its going to wow

 

[luckysob]

I'll keep my iPhone 4 for another year, but it's time to update my wife's iPhone 3 to something with a better screen and faster processor.

 

[mcmlxix]

People should remember that Apple doesn't base its design decisions on "consumer surveys" or "market research".

Surveys and research aside, I think that Apple does listen, albeit quietly and without much acknowledgement. But at the end of the day, it’s Steve’s opinion that wins out.

For my 2 cents, while a slimmer (the direction Apple is constantly taking) phone might be nice as far as taking up less space in my pocket, a slimmer phone will be more difficult to handle. And like the survey respondents, I think greater battery life, which means keeping the phone the same thickness, is much more important.

 

[bencnorden]

64gb version? Will there be one? What do people think?

 

[tigajr]

Shame on you, MacRumors.

Article title like this is your new way to attract a broad audience to the site?

I am sure you understood the math...

How did you make the leap from 35% of people who visited pricegrabber and agreed to take a survey said they would buy an iPhone 5 to 35% of American consumers will buy the iPhone 5 sight unseen?

 

[aristokrat]

As many people have already said, the headlines are completely misleading. It should state "35% of the people who responded will purchase an iPhone 5, not 35% of US consumers....

You're right. For a second there, I thought the US government had included this on the census count and actually asked every single American instead of assuming that this, like every other statistic, was based on a survey.

 

[Mattie Num Nums]

Sprint + 4G and I'll buy it.

 

[wovel]

No 4G/LTE is a deal-breaker for most people that buy phones unsubsidized.

Seriously, I've had 50Mb/s 4G/LTE since December 2009. And it's STILL not in a new Apple phone.

That's why Apple will always lose global market share to Samsung/HTC. In addition to the previous no-unsubsidized crap from previous iPhones.

How's that working out for you, running all over the world grabbing 50 mb/s downloads on every street corner? 4g/LTE is still a niche feature, when it came out is completely irrelevant.

Do you have a source for how this survey was conducted? Something doesn't seem quite right. Do you really think more than 107 million Americans are going to buy the iPhone 5 when total worldwide sales of all iPhones to this point are 129 million?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg

While I think this surgery is flawed on many levels. Selling 100 million iPhone 5s globally is certainly realistic.

It's all in the trends. They point to trends. Trends that have a good chance of becoming the established norm. Surveys are invaluable if conducted correctly.


Is it?

It's also a well-known fact that the average MR member has little to no understanding of consumers and market realities.


Over 200 million iOS users, not counting Mac users. Both set to grow at an incredible rate over the next few years. That's a helluva lot of "fanboys." Have you even seen Apple's recent numbers? Staggering.

Good post, seems you have a following that logs in just to mark you negative.

You got the numbers wrong. It's Google that's activating more Android phones then Apple activates iOS devices. Apple sold 220 million iOS devices in the past five years Worldwide + you're only with 300 million in your country, of which about 2/3 is an official consumer (kids, grannies, aliens, agoraphobics ... are excluded), so how would you explain they'd increase that number by 50% in just one year based on US-only sales?

And on what is that 35% based? I'm guessing on average, a person buys a new mobile phone every three years? Or even if it's two years, this would mean that at least 70% of the personers who are planning on buying a phone next year, will buy an iPhone. And no way this happens in any 201x year.

It's a (very) decent phone, with great costumers support backing it, but 70% of US consumers buying this 600+ bucks device? Hell no.

The survey is obviously flawed, but not nearly as flawed as google's activation numbers. Tell me, what does google count as an activation? Is it possible for the same device to be counted twice? Why are the numbers they release only good for a single day? The number is a scam. These can easily be construed as misleading forward looking statements, I have no idea why the SEC continues to allow them to do it.

 

[cyks]

I would love to get an iPhone, but the monthly costs are ridiculous. That's why I went with Android on an LG Optimus. It's a really decent smartphone that allows me to get unlimited internet, text, and 300 minutes for $25 a month. When I figure out how to get the same deal on an iPhone, I'll buy one.

Love to know what carrier you got that deal with...

 

[IzzyJG99]

As someone who waited till the iPhone 4 to get one...and having only gotten one 4 months ago I'll avoid the 5. I don't game on it, so a faster processor is pointless. I find the 3G speeds fast enough. I'll probably keep the 4 for two years, then when eligible for an upgrade get whatever Apple has out then.

 

[wovel]

You're right. For a second there, I thought the US government had included this on the census count and actually asked every single American instead of assuming that this, like every other statistic, was based on a survey.

While that is not actually necessary to get a close approximation of the opinions of the population, I see your point. The survey and the headline do appear to be deeply flawed.