Survey Sees Pent-Up iPad Demand, Some Cannibalization of Other Apple Products

[SandynJosh]

When will people realize SIMPLE is not necessarily EASIER?

Explain that. If a UI is well designed, then the two will go hand in hand.

This may be a great appliance for parents and grandparents (In fact, I will be buying one for my Dad) but it is utterly useless even compared to a net book for me. From my perspective it is many steps BACKWARDS in usability.

Then the iPad is not for you. However, a lot of people are using a MacBook, or a netbook, or a smart phone, because until the iPad there wasn't the right device for their needs

The thing that worries me is that this is the future of Apple. Apple is a gadgets company now. They seem less and less interested in their computers. For those of us who want the best user experience when we are actually doing productive or slightly complex things with our computers, I think we are out of luck.

This may well be the future of Apple. Since Steve returned to Apple, they tend to focus on markets that they can dominate. While they have a respectable market share of the general laptop market, they will likely never dominate there, nor are the profit potentials there.

However, Apple has positioned themselves well to be the preferred OS in the mobile arena and it will pay them much better to stay focused there.

And beside, what more can Apple do in the laptop and desktop market to improve their position? It's a fairly mature market where they could only gain or lose a couple points of share.

 

[lilo777]

And beside, what more can Apple do in the laptop and desktop market to improve their position? It's a fairly mature market where they could only gain or lose a couple points of share.

How about reducing prices?

 

[SandynJosh]

So, how many iPads do you guys reckon Apple will sell in the first 6 months?
More than the original iPhone, or fewer? Make your bids, please.

According to the numbers I could find, the iPhone sold 3,7 million units in the first six months.

I think the iPad will exceed that number.

Since Apple has sold 12.4 million iPhones in the last 6 months, I expect that the iPad, coasting on the advancements in the iTunes app store, should sell around 7 million units in the next 6 months. That time period will include graduation gifts, back-to-school sales, and the early holiday sales.

 

[RT2020]

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

There is a point where simplicity for simplicity's sake will actually make something more difficult.

Example:

Imagine you click a link using the iPhone Mail application and then click on a link to a Web page....Safari navigates to that page. Once you're done with that and want to get back to your email...what do you do?

For simplicity's sake, there's no "Back" button on the device.You have to hit the single Home button, then hit the Mail button on your home screen. Simple, yes...easy? No.

Taking away something like a keyboard isn't going to make my life easier. EDIT: Doesn't mean that the keyboard will exist forever, but right now, I don't think anything exists that will make things easer for me.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Worried that the Apple Stores will be sold out in early April. Guess we will see the "availability" chart every day on the Apple site to tell us which stores have what inventory as we saw with the iPhone on first release.

Apple has high sales estimates (10m) for the iPad, and they are usually ultra conservative. For Apple to meet this goal they can't afford a large scale shortage like the Wii. I'm sure one of the reasons why Apple split up the launch of the WiFi and 3G models is so they could stockpile Wi-Fi models. There will be lines, but I think availability will be good, especially in multi-store towns.

That said, who knows how many of each model Apple will make. I suspect some people in the back of the line may be buying a different model than intended or walking away empty handed.

 

[str1f3]

Are you forgetting about MobileMe?

MobileMe has nothing to do with it. It does not sync movies, movies, TV shows, music videos, smart folders etc.. It is an iDevice because it still needs iTunes. iTunes only runs on Mac + Windows.

The iPad can only directly sync to a computer.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Taking away something like a keyboard isn't going to make my life easier.

Who's taking the keyboard away? I might agree w/ you if there was no way to connect to a physical keyboard, but there is the dock and also the bt keyboard. The bt keyboard + iPad weigh less than the MBA.

If you do a search you'll find that when the iPhone was announced I was a big ranter that the iPhone wasn't practical b/c it didn't have a physical keyboard. But after actually using the iPhone virtual keyboard I found it to be pretty comfortable and accurate. I don't think the iPad's lack of a physical keyboard is a bad thing -- I love it. Less weight, less places for dust to get entrapped.

I will buy a b/t keyboard for long missives, but most of the time I suspect the virtual keyboard will be fine.

 

[Night Spring]

If the iPad had never come out, would you still feel the same "omigawd Apple'd better come out with a tablet right now because I wantwantwantwantwant one!!1!!!11!!!" way that you do now? It amazes me how little people want to wait these days. I've even been hearing people say that they'll be buying the Wifi model as soon as it comes out and then replacing it with a 3G when it comes out, as if they can't wait a month.

I've been waiting for someone to make a device like the iPad since... oh, around the early '90s. I've looked at, and sometimes bought, PDAs, PocketPCs, subnotebooks, light-weight laptops, ebook readers, netbooks, and finally the iPod touch and iPhone, waiting and waiting for a device that was just right for me. The iPad could finally be the device that hits the right combination of function and portability. So yes, I want one yesterday -- I've wanted one for close to twenty years.

 

[coleridge78]

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

There is a point where simplicity for simplicity's sake will actually make something more difficult.

Example:

Imagine you click a link using the iPhone Mail application and then click on a link to a Web page....Safari navigates to that page. Once you're done with that and want to get back to your email...what do you do?

For simplicity's sake, there's no "Back" button on the device.You have to hit the single Home button, then hit the Mail button on your home screen. Simple, yes...easy? No.

Taking away something like a keyboard isn't going to make my life easier.

Except, of course, that you don't know if it's going to work that way. (Personally, I think it'd be nice if Safari had a "go back" software option when it was launched from another app. But a hard "back" button is a terrible idea, because it wastes a hardware solution on something that doesn't have a consistent and coherent use all the time--like Home does.)

And you aren't coherent about this difference between "simple" and "easy".

And taking away a keyboard may not make your life easier (though you may just be a reactionary), but you are not everyone, or even a majority. This isn't "taking away" a keyboard, anyway, it's making it optional so it's only there when you really want it.

 

[BlizzardBomb]

Let me guess, you were one of the people who didn't understand the iPod Mini. The fact that it went on to be Apple's biggest hit to that date just confused you even more, didn't it?

Look, it's ok to be a techno nerd that hangs out in places like this. I'm one too. But please don't make the mistake of thinking that we are normal. We're not.

I think you're getting the wrong end of the stick there. If I didn't understand the iPod mini, why would I have got an iPod nano? I'm solely talking about the high-end iPad, not the thing in general. I don't think you can compare this to an iPod or even a notebook, I was merely pointing out that I was surprised that people would be willing to fork out a large amount of money for one instead of a smaller one and say a better computer, given that people who want one are likely to have a much better primary system as well as an iPhone or iPod anyway.

 

[zweigand]

I know for a fact I'm planning to buy an iPad instead of a MacBook.

That said, I am planning on buying an iMac to replace my current aging MacBook Pro as my primary machine.

Exactly. This will be my setup as well (i'm replacing an iBook with the iPad)

iMac + iPad(s) = all I need.

 

[waterman]

iPhone had 14.4% market share among smart phones in 2009 which probably translates to less than 0.1% market share for all mobile phones worldwide. I'd say those developers have a lot of work to do before they should look at iPhone customers

About 2.1% actually.

According to Gartner in 2009 Apple sold 24.9 million iPnones and there were about 1.2 Billion cellphones sold.

24.9/1.200 = 2.1% worldwide

 

[RT2020]

I think you're getting the wrong end of the stick there. If I didn't understand the iPod mini, why would I have got an iPod nano? I'm solely talking about the high-end iPad, not the thing in general. I don't think you can compare this to an iPod or even a notebook, I was merely pointing out that I was surprised that people would be willing to fork out a large amount of money for one instead of a smaller one and say a better computer, given that people who want one are likely to have a much better primary system as well as an iPhone or iPod anyway.

The funny thing is, I think it's the techno-nerds who are the most excited about the ipad. They want the latest and greatest technology and bling. I think a lot of people look for value and practicality instead

My friends who are not tech nerds like me also do not see the point of the ipad.

Other than being sleek and sexy, the ipad has few advantages over a netbook.

 

[lilo777]

I know for a fact I'm planning to buy an iPad instead of a MacBook.

That said, I am planning on buying an iMac to replace my current aging MacBook Pro as my primary machine.

So you are not buying iPad instead of MacBook. You are going to buy iMac instead of MacBook which just proves the points that iPad can not replace a computer.

 

[waterman]

you don't know that, who is to say a dock adapter cannot be produced that allows usb devices to be plugged into the iPad so that a user may sync their ipod, digital cameras, etc. Just because you don't see it today doesn't mean you won't be able to do it tomorrow. Look at the iphone today compared to it's release 2.5 years ago... the iphone is a much different animal once devs started making apps and accessories were released.

The car was not built in one day... neither was the iPad. When looking at a device you also need to look at future potential, not just what the device can do at the moment.

um, there is an adapter available now (or at least when the iPad comes out) that will allow a digital camera to connect to the iPad. Apple calls it the "iPad Camera Connection Kit."

From http://www.apple.com/ipad/specs/

The Camera Connection Kit gives you two ways to import photos and videos from a digital camera. The Camera Connector lets you import your photos and videos to iPad using the camera’s USB cable. Or you can use the SD Card Reader to import photos and videos directly from the camera’s SD card.

So if you can connect a camera USB cable to the iPad Camera Connection Kit it would seem that it is only a matter of software and hardware to be able to connect peripherals such as USB Hubs (powered), printers, scanners, etc. This would have to be the case otherwise what do you do with your iWork products - e-mail them to yourself or transfer them via your home network to your Mac or PC for printing (I can't believe that will be the only way to print).

 

[a.gomez]

ok, guess it is a good way to spin it... another way to see it is that the same people did the survey back in september of last year before people knew what it would be and it was 21%... so it was doing better as Vapor Gear.

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/02/23/how-deep-is-the-apple-ipads-pent-up-demand/

 

[Constable Odo]

The analysts and pundits must think that Apple is stupid. I'm willing to bet that Apple puts a lot of research into fitting new products into certain categories, so that there is a minimized effect of any cannibalization of any other products. And even with what little cannibalization there is, chances are that newer product is going to generate much higher profits than what's being cannibalized. It's true that older, simpler iPods are being cannibalized by the iPhone and Touches, but that is to be somewhat expected.

I hear people saying that the iPad is just a big iPod Touch and that they're too similar. Yes, they'll both basically run the same apps, but if I'm going bike riding I'm not going to lug an iPad around. I would opt for the Touch. On the other hand, if I'm home looking at movies or reading, I'm going to go for the iPad. Maybe I have a little too much disposable income so I don't see how they overlap to that great of a degree.

I'm not going to start bragging that the iPad will be a runaway success. I hope it will and I think low-tech consumers will find it attractive in its simplicity. I'm not going to pay heed to the soured tech people who are only interested in ports and processors. They make up too small a group compared to all the low-tech consumers that should find the iPad a very interesting device to use if they can get content with just a few taps of their fingers.

Apple has high sales estimates (10m) for the iPad, and they are usually ultra conservative. For Apple to meet this goal they can't afford a large scale shortage like the Wii.
...snip...
I suspect some people in the back of the line may be buying a different model than intended or walking away empty handed.

Wow! You honestly think there might be lines. I hadn't thought about that sort of turnout for the iPad. I mean there will be some lines, because people enjoy camping out for Apple products, but I have my doubts about there being hundreds of people waiting on line. We'll see if Apple releases any pre-order sales numbers. Maybe if Apple has a couple of iPad ads on TV it might start a frenzy of some sort. I truly hope the iPad becomes a huge success so the naysayers have to hang their heads in shame.

 

[840quadra]

I see the cheapest as possible crowd and the people that just click every checkbox to max out a product.

I am in the cheap as possible crowd. I have a Verizon MIFI that lets me connect 5 devices to it. I really don't want to spend money for space i don't need, or an other month to month Internet access bill.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Wow! You honestly think there might be lines. I hadn't thought about that sort of turnout for the iPad. I mean there will be some lines, because people enjoy camping out for Apple products, but I have my doubts about there being hundreds of people waiting on line. We'll see if Apple releases any pre-order sales numbers.

The way I see it, hundreds line up for an Apple Store opening... in 2009! OK, granted they are probably going for the t-shirt, but still, waiting in line for a t-shirt is real loyalty (and maybe something else too). Apple's sales projection is exactly the same as it was for the original iPhone, which it exceeded, and iPad fans are amped to buy. Of course there are unknown variables such as pre-ordering and whether Apple will sell the iPad at opening or will close the stores at 4pm and re-open at 6pm. I expect Apple to milk the hype because that is what they do. For that they need lines, so expect a line.

 

[Piggie]

Do you think there are perhaps too many models ?

Six.

Do we really NEED 6 versions of a new product?

I suppose I'm thinking, logically they could drop the 16GB models and just leave with 4 different configurations and that would still be plenty to choose from.

What'ya think?

 

[Eidorian]

I am in the cheap as possible crowd. I have a Verizon MIFI that lets me connect 5 devices to it. I really don't want to spend money for space i don't need, or an other month to month Internet access bill.

Those 3G/etc. redistributors are rather interesting as a possible work around for access. I like them a lot more than getting a smartphone with a data plan.

 

[davidgrimm]

yeah, I'll get one, but not on the first day. Probably like August when my 2 year sentence to ATT is up. Not sure which one I'll get. Won't decide that until July or August.

In my case its going to cannibalize my iPhone usage. I'll get a basic cell from Sprint for $40 a month (for unlimited everything including TT&L) and then use the iPad for the mobile computing stuff. Maybe...

 

[lilo777]

Do you think there are perhaps too many models ?

Six.

Do we really NEED 6 versions of a new product?

I suppose I'm thinking, logically they could drop the 16GB models and just leave with 4 different configurations and that would still be plenty to choose from.

What'ya think?

I think the more options the better. Why would anyone not want to have more choices?

 

[cvaldes]

Do you think there are perhaps too many models ?

Six.

Do we really NEED 6 versions of a new product?

I suppose I'm thinking, logically they could drop the 16GB models and just leave with 4 different configurations and that would still be plenty to choose from.

What'ya think?

I'm thinking that the market will make the decision for Apple. If there is relatively weak demand for one or two of the iPad configurations, Apple will probably drop those.

It is unlikely that Apple will make changes to their iPad lineup without seeing real world sales figures. In the long run, Apple will look at the numbers, think about which direction they want to take the platform, and make appropriate adjustments.

The whimsy and desires of any single individual is unimportant and statistically insignificant (well, apart from Steve Jobs). It's really about what the overal marketplace wants and whether or not they are able to service that market and still make their margins. Sure, everyone would like this thing priced starting at $99, but as an AAPL shareholder I am pleased to note that Apple isn't in the business of building loss leaders.

 

[OllyW]

The way I see it, hundreds line up for an Apple Store opening... in 2009! OK, granted they are probably going for the t-shirt, but still, waiting in line for a t-shirt is real loyalty (and maybe something else too). Apple's sales projection is exactly the same as it was for the original iPhone, which it exceeded, and iPad fans are amped to buy. Of course there are unknown variables such as pre-ordering and whether Apple will sell the iPad at opening or will close the stores at 4pm and re-open at 6pm. I expect Apple to milk the hype because that is what they do. For that they need lines, so expect a line.

I've seen both extremes of Apple launch events. I went to the opening of the second UK store at the Bullring in Birmingham and over a thousand people turned up. There was also a big turn out for the Leopard launch, another event with a free T-shirt.

At the 3G iPhone launch only 15 people turned up at opening time, there was twice as many staff as customers and the whole thing was a little bit embarrassing.



I'm not sure what the reaction for the iPad will be like here in the UK. There will probably be a fair turnout at the flagship Regent Street store (there always is) but I'm not sure if there will be a big fuss elsewhere. Perhaps I'll be in for a surprise, who knows?